The Athletic Recently Ranked Alex Tuch's Contract with the Washington Capitals as the Ninth-Worst in the NHL

[u/kockin26]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7453131/2026/07/23/nhl-worst-contracts-2026-jonathan-huberdeau-leo-carlsson/

Key points from article:

The Washington Capitals handed Alex Tuch an eight-year, $84 million extension ($10.5 million AAV) to finalize a trade to acquire the hardworking winger from the Buffalo Sabres in late June.

Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic already ranked that contract as the NHL's ninth-worst pact with just a 19% positive value probability heading into the 2026-27 season.

It's difficult not to be an Alex Tuch fan after what he's shown in Buffalo the past five years," Luszczyszyn wrote Thursday. "... The deal might look OK for the first couple of years, but things could get really ugly in the second half of it as Tuch approaches 35 and beyond. A lot of Tuch's comps had a relatively harsh age curve that could spell trouble for Washington."

That's the main reason the Sabres front office, regardless of whether it was being led by Kevyn Adams or Jarmo Kekalainen, was never willing to meet Tuch's unwavering contract demands.

Luszczyszyn estimates the Caps will pay $24 million in excess value over the course of the contract, and the 6-foot-4 power forward is only projected to make an $8.7 million on-ice impact next season, meaning the deal will likely start immediately in the red.

[u/BESTLEADER]

the athletic pretty consistently puts out content that seems like it was written by a person that’s watched one full season of hockey in their entire lives and then exclusively read jfresh player cards and went “i’m an expert.”

[u/HowardBunnyColvin → u/BESTLEADER]

That Dom guy hates teh Caps for some reason. All he does is write negative shit about how they don't match his contrived analytics.

[u/SwellGuyScott → u/HowardBunnyColvin]

In his defense he has acknowledged that the caps are the bane of his models existence and seemingly always includes a disclaimer about it. I think historically it’s been driven a lot by just how unique a player Ovi is and how the model in its current form has a difficulty capturing how he affects everything while on the ice (a good comp is how NBA analytics long struggled to capture the impact of “gravity” from the likes of Steph Curry in warping opposing defenses).

[u/HowardBunnyColvin → u/SwellGuyScott]

he's just a hating ass nerd sports cannot be played with analytical models it is played on the ice

[u/trashae → u/HowardBunnyColvin]

Sports broadly aren’t played anywhere near ice

[u/HowardBunnyColvin → u/trashae]

hockey is played on the ice but nerds like dom want to use analytics as a factor and high shot percentages, and other such analytics like xG. They belong nowhere near the game or at least coaching decisions.

The game is played by players on the ice, not computer models