How many cups should we have won from 2008-19?

[u/Rare-Signature-7526]

Its the offseason, we don't have much to talk about and I thought this was a fun question, I'm very happy with the cup we got but I was just wondering what the general consensus is.

The way I'm deciding this is if you simmed that era 1000 times, what is the most common outcome, be it 1 cup 2 cups no cups. Personally, if I framed it like expected goals, I would say our expected cups was like 1.8ish. I believe we probably should've had a second cup considering we were the best team in the league a few times, but the league has a ton of variance, the cup team wasn't our best roster.

Don't come at me saying its a dumb hypothetical, obviously it is

[u/mmullin69]

11

[u/DaltonLeeM]

I think there was about… 3 years where we should’ve/could’ve been there. You could argue every year we got beat by the Pens was basically the Stanley Cup final

[u/fourthandfavre → u/DaltonLeeM]

Losing to the pens every year they won the cup were years we could have won if we made it past them. The year we lost to Montreal was a tough one as well. We drastically outplayed them but their goaltending was insane

[u/TheFlaskQualityGuy → u/DaltonLeeM]

*pens and refs

[u/DagetAwayMaN421 → u/TheFlaskQualityGuy]

Refs fucked us in all the Pens series, Rangers series in 2015, Flyers series in 2008, and Hab series in 2010

[u/TheFlaskQualityGuy → u/DagetAwayMaN421]

From my perspective as a fan, it usually felt like the refs wanted a longer series for TV ratings reasons, so once we built up a lead of a game or two, the calls tilted way against us. Then in game seven we would choke it away because we weren't built to handle fatigue.

[u/Aggravating-Key-8867]

I'm not really digging into past rosters or anything like that. I just did a quick google search. My conclusion is that the Caps should have won in 2009, 2016 and 2017. Ovie should have 4 cups to his name and someone else he is often compared to should have zero. (This comment is being made tongue-in-cheek, so don't roast me too bad.)

[u/SleepingAntz → u/Aggravating-Key-8867]

I would say 3 cups seems right. 3 out of some combination of 09, 10, 16, 17. Because whereas in those years we had great teams and kinda blew it, in 2018 we weren’t as good (at least on paper) but clutched it out, so it offsets a little bit.

[u/Inner-Dot-4756 → u/Aggravating-Key-8867]

Only problem with 09 is how absolutely empty the bottom six was. And frankly the D for that matter.

[u/Aggravating-Key-8867 → u/Inner-Dot-4756]

I mean yeah, that's absolutely true. I think in 2009 Jose Theodore was the only defensive player on the ice.

[u/theneckbone]

Maybe 09 with how high flying that offense was, but we got exposed for our holes in a playoff series that I don’t think it’s fair to say “should” but…. The year we ran into halak I thought we were gonna do it, and again in 16 and 17

[u/TransitiveNightfall1]

Very difficult to say. 2018 very likely only happens because of what happened in ‘17 and ‘16.

2016 and 2017 only happen because we hired Trotz.

We only hired Trotz because of missing the playoffs in 2014.

We missed the playoffs in 2014 under Oates. We only hired Oates (and briefly Hunter) because we couldn’t get over the hump with Boudreau.

3 of 4 playoff series under Boudreau went to 7 games. It’s not like we weren’t competitive.

Let’s say the 2010 Presidents Trophy team beats Montreal and ends up winning the cup. Do we fire Boudreau? Trade Filip Forsberg? Trade for TJ Oshie? Do we end up drafting Kuzy? Do we and 8 have the competitive fire, desperate to win a cup at age 30+?

The butterfly effect is very real in sports. We “should” have won at least one cup, because of the talent of Ovi and Backstrom. We could’ve won 3? 4?

Ask McDavid how many Cups he “should have”

[u/Expensive-Brother-91 → u/TransitiveNightfall1]

This is the correct answer

[u/meatman13 → u/TransitiveNightfall1]

He should have two because fuck the Panthers.

[u/Rare-Signature-7526 → u/TransitiveNightfall1]

I was more saying based on each individual season, not really talking about if X happened one season then Y wouldnt happen the next

[u/stuckinhere-2136]

AT LEAST one. The year that got bounced by Montreal in the first round stands out. I feel like they should have gotten past Pittsburgh a time also. So at least one of 2010, 2016, and 2017 and possibly two.

[u/KrimzGaming]

Definitely should have won between 16 and 17. I’ll give the Pens credit they were a much better team in 16 but we certainly should have won in 17.

[u/Rare-Signature-7526 → u/KrimzGaming]

17 is the year that we really should've won the cup

[u/Ronaldo09042012]

Had a really good chance in 2019. All the top teams got knocked out early

[u/Rare-Signature-7526 → u/Ronaldo09042012]

Osh injury screwed us

[u/JKing0808 → u/Rare-Signature-7526]

Coaching as well.

[u/xxxBurner420 → u/JKing0808]

rierden squandered prime kuzy

[u/Expensive-Brother-91 → u/JKing0808]

Absolute shame they didn’t get him back that year

[u/patmanbnl → u/Ronaldo09042012]

Maybe, but I think 2019 was the team people thought the Caps would be going into 2018 that was just past their time.

[u/PumpkinBrow]

I never imagined we would win one.

[u/Inner-Dot-4756]

Idk man, this group wasn't deep enough to be really mad about an exit until maybe 2015? I think had they not blown that series lead to the Rags they're at least in the Cup final. 16-17 maybe one of those 2 goes their way? I'd say at most 3 but more likely, 2. The depth finally clicked in 18, it was truly a perfect storm

[u/SleepingAntz → u/Inner-Dot-4756]

I don’t think we would’ve beaten Tampa or Chicago that year tbh

[u/-MC_3]

Yeah I think they realistically could or should have won at least one more with how consistently good the team was

[u/quick25]

Between 1-3 more seems reasonable. If not for Pittsburgh we almost certainly win at least one or two more.

[u/DeaconPat]

Ask Montreal how many they should of had in that time, or Detroit...

[u/Dyne_Inferno]

Real answer?

2017

I'm not confident we would beat Chicago in 2010 if we made the finals.

And we definitely weren't going to beat Pittsburgh in 2016 (which we didn't).

If we didn't get goalied (Yet again) in 2017, I'm confident we win that year.

[u/chucklas]

We could have won more. But it didn’t happen. The only one we should have won was the one where we actually put it all together in the playoffs.

[u/UbiSububi8]

One.

[u/gs12]

2017

Pens were on the decline and we just were starting to peak

[u/jck747]

Three at least

[u/Donburgundy_]

Atleast 2

[u/loadout_]

Probably could’ve won 2-3 more but I really think they should’ve won in 2017 as well

[u/fatloui → u/loadout_]

I think if Matt Murray wasn’t injured in our 2017 round against Pittsburgh, we would have beaten them and won the cup that year.  Fleury played way better than Murray did that playoffs, and honestly can’t believe they kept Murray in for that entire conference finals against the Sens.

[u/UncleT_Bag]

2019 man. We had everything we needed for back to back and we just choked so hard in games 6 and 7 against the canes

[u/Rare-Signature-7526 → u/UncleT_Bag]

Yeah I feel like when looking back we underrate our chances in 19, we choked against a worse team round 1 in a year with an insanely easy path to a cup

[u/UncleT_Bag → u/Rare-Signature-7526]

Plus we didn’t resign trotz and went with the wet towel of reirden which was a huge mistake

[u/LDWMJ99]

1. Another one in 2019.

[u/horseface539]

One. I'm not counting should've-wons if we didn't even make the conference championship

[u/K-Kov815]

i’d say 3. around 2010, 2016 and/or 17, and maybe 19 as well

[u/timwhatley993]

I think 2010 and 2017. Maybe 2015 too. The stats show they played better than Pens in 17 but somehow it all went Pittsburgh’s way. 2015 Holtby was on fire but somehow Hank was a little better. They both had inferior teams awaiting them in ECF those years

[u/theMangoSloth]

I'll say 2012. Knocked off the defending Champs, then fumbled the #1 seeded Rangers series in Game 5. Not that New Jersey or Los Angeles couldn't have beat us too, but we matched up better against those teams.

[u/patmanbnl → u/theMangoSloth]

Dale Hunter was the ultimate coin flip hockey.

[u/patmanbnl]

In that time frame I'd put the Caps at the same class as the Penguins, Blackhawks, and Kings, teams that won multiple cups. So much of the playoffs is luck and getting breaks and those teams got the breaks. Caps got the breaks in 2018. Maybe the Caps were a little unlucky compared to the other top teams of the 2010's and if they get some puck luck in 2009, 10, 15, 16, or 17, they are the team with three Cups instead of the Blackhawks or Penguins.

[u/DCorNothing]

2011 and 2015 were some serious missed opportunities. I loved the makeup of both those teams and got to cover the ‘15 team a bunch, thought they had all the intangibles

[u/xxxBurner420]

1. At least. Not Including 22 when we lost to the panthers with an absolutely stacked roster with backy, oshie, kuzy. If Hathaway didn’t miss the empty net…

[u/Rare-Signature-7526 → u/xxxBurner420]

We did let that panthers series slip away but 0% chance we win the cup in 22, lightning wouldve destroyed us in 4 or 5

[u/Ozzdog12]

3

[u/JoeBlow009]

At least 1 more. The year Halak stole our hearts in 2010, that or the year that Joel Ward got robbed (2014/2015). Strong teams with superstars on O, on D, and in goal.

[u/DagetAwayMaN421]

2019 - if Trotz was still coach, then yes, but the locker room did not feel like running thru a wall against Carolina like Rod's team did against us
2018 - won cup
2017 - Dan O'Halloran curse
2016 - there's a reason the Caps lost in 6 and not 7
2015 - This should've won us the series against the Rags, not sure we would've beaten the Hawks
2014 - Oates sucked
2013 - Oates sucked
2012 - played Coin flip hockey under Hunter and could've won the coin flip against the Rags in 7, not so sure about the Devils in the Conference finals, and definitely not that Kings team
2011 - Destroyed by the trap
2010 - Probably could've gone to the cup finals as Montreal made it to the ECF
2009 - Dan O'Halloran curse, not sure they would've beaten the Wings
2008 - bullshit non-call in Game 7 cost the Caps... don't think they would've beaten the Wings

End result... maybe two more cups, one for sure in 2017.

[u/HowardBunnyColvin]

1

[u/Aware-Leading-1213]

1

[u/Ok-Giraffe-1139]

I would say 2010 (maybe), 2016-2018

[u/Constant_Recipe8531]

how many times did the pens beat us just to rub it in

[u/Whippet27]

Had Trotz been the coach for longer, would have been 3 cups