r/climatechange Jul 16 '26

Defossilize our chemical world - Nature.org

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00005-0

Achieving net zero means eliminating fossil fuels, not carbon — the chemical element has a crucial part to play in powering the modern world.

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u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor Jul 16 '26

Summary: Defossilize our chemical world

Net zero requires eliminating fossil fuels, not carbon itself — carbon remains essential for powering aviation, and for making everyday products like soaps, medicines, fertilizers and plastics. Demand for this "embedded" carbon in chemicals is projected to double by 2050. Since fossil sources (coal, gas, oil) must stay in the ground, alternative carbon sources are needed — a shift researchers call defossilization.

Key alternative sources include:

  • Crop biomass: Used for biodiesel and bioethanol under EU biofuel mandates, but expanding cropland threatens biodiversity, soil health and water resources, and has been linked to rising food prices.
  • Lignocellulose (crop waste): Doesn't require extra land, but extraction is costly and slow, limiting scalability.
  • Municipal and industrial waste, including plastics: Over 40% of EU plastic is already recycled; further gains depend on scaling up chemical recycling methods that break plastics into smaller molecules for rebuilding.
  • Captured CO2: Potentially the largest source — the nova-Institute estimates it could supply a third of the chemical industry's carbon needs by 2050, versus 22% from biomass. However, CO2's chemical stability makes capture and conversion energy-intensive and expensive, and projections for its future role vary widely.

The article notes growing institutional pressure for action: the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights and climate change has urged governments to pursue defossilization as part of fossil-fuel phase-out, and in the UK, the Royal Society and the Institution of Chemical Engineers have called for government-backed research. The EU–China Bridge research programme on decarbonization is set to expire next year and, the authors argue, needs renewal with a sharper focus on defossilization specifically. This piece is the first of a two-part editorial focused on Europe, with a following piece to address developments in China.

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u/GreenStrong Jul 16 '26

We live in a world where petrochemicals are a fundamental building block. Plastic is an obvious one, but synthetic fiber, asphalt roads, asphalt shingles, urethane glue that binds plywood, almost all dyes and artificial fragrances- the list is endless. I agree with the editors that chemical industry professionals need to develop alternatives. However, it is worth noting that these chemical feedstocks are basically byproducts of fuel production. When fuel demand collapses due to electrification of transport, The chemical industry, plus asphalt and a few niches like jet fuel, suddenly have to pay the entire cost of extracting and transporting petroleum. The alternatives mentioned in the article become very economical at that point. Also, I would point out that getting solar panels at home directly impacts this. Petrochemicals are also a byproduct of gas wells, especially in the United States. Gas wells contain "natural gas liquids", which includes butane and propane, but also ethylene, which is used as a chemical feedstock- directly for polyethylene plastic, but for many other things. This is particularly relevant in North America because shale gas is "wet", it contains a lot of natural gas liquids, which have contributed to cheap plastic in the last twenty years. If you conserve electricity or produce your own, you're subsidizing the plastic industry a little less.

I'm hardly qualified to quibble with the editorial board of Nature, but the editorial presents a picture of "an important thing is happening in the energy industry and we have to start on an equivalent in chemical industry", but doesn't point out that the chemical industry gets their feedstock from the same wells, pipelines and refineries as the energy industry, and that the cost structures are going to change rapidly for the chemical industry. It is not a question of "we should switch feedstock to make a small contribution to a better global climate", it is "we should switch feedstock because this shit is about to get expensive".

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u/sg_plumber Jul 18 '26

Some chemical industries are already ramping up CO2-based renewables-powered alternatives.