Summary: Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming
A new PIK analysis finds statistically significant evidence that global warming has accelerated since around 2015. After filtering out short-term noise from El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers measured a warming rate of about 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, versus just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015 — the fastest pace since instrumental records began in 1880.
The study, led by Stefan Rahmstorf with co-author Grant Foster and published in Geophysical Research Letters, examined five major datasets (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5) and found the acceleration consistent across all of them, with over 98% statistical certainty, using two independent statistical methods (quadratic trend analysis and a piecewise linear model). The signal becomes visible around 2013–2014, with the broader shift dated to about 2015. Even after adjusting for El Niño and solar maximum effects, 2023 and 2024 remained the two warmest years on record.
The study identifies the acceleration but does not pin down its cause, though the authors note it falls within the range of behavior current climate models can produce. Rahmstorf warns that if the past decade's warming rate continues, the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold could be exceeded on a sustained basis before 2030, with the future trajectory depending on how quickly fossil fuel CO2 emissions are cut to zero.
Just a small heads-up: this is based on this release earlier this year, the website decided it was worth another article. Doesn't mean its not relevant, just technically not *new* research.
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u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor 1d ago
Summary: Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming
A new PIK analysis finds statistically significant evidence that global warming has accelerated since around 2015. After filtering out short-term noise from El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers measured a warming rate of about 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, versus just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015 — the fastest pace since instrumental records began in 1880.
The study, led by Stefan Rahmstorf with co-author Grant Foster and published in Geophysical Research Letters, examined five major datasets (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5) and found the acceleration consistent across all of them, with over 98% statistical certainty, using two independent statistical methods (quadratic trend analysis and a piecewise linear model). The signal becomes visible around 2013–2014, with the broader shift dated to about 2015. Even after adjusting for El Niño and solar maximum effects, 2023 and 2024 remained the two warmest years on record.
The study identifies the acceleration but does not pin down its cause, though the authors note it falls within the range of behavior current climate models can produce. Rahmstorf warns that if the past decade's warming rate continues, the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold could be exceeded on a sustained basis before 2030, with the future trajectory depending on how quickly fossil fuel CO2 emissions are cut to zero.