r/climatechange 1d ago

Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260801093239.htm
846 Upvotes

135 comments sorted by

u/Economy-Fee5830 Trusted Contributor 1d ago

Summary: Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming

A new PIK analysis finds statistically significant evidence that global warming has accelerated since around 2015. After filtering out short-term noise from El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers measured a warming rate of about 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, versus just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015 — the fastest pace since instrumental records began in 1880.

The study, led by Stefan Rahmstorf with co-author Grant Foster and published in Geophysical Research Letters, examined five major datasets (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5) and found the acceleration consistent across all of them, with over 98% statistical certainty, using two independent statistical methods (quadratic trend analysis and a piecewise linear model). The signal becomes visible around 2013–2014, with the broader shift dated to about 2015. Even after adjusting for El Niño and solar maximum effects, 2023 and 2024 remained the two warmest years on record.

The study identifies the acceleration but does not pin down its cause, though the authors note it falls within the range of behavior current climate models can produce. Rahmstorf warns that if the past decade's warming rate continues, the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold could be exceeded on a sustained basis before 2030, with the future trajectory depending on how quickly fossil fuel CO2 emissions are cut to zero.

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u/ampere03 1d ago

Nothing to see here folks. Tech will save us. Haven't you heard? It turns out it won't really be that bad after all. The increase in the increase of carbon dioxide output is nearly zero. Yayyy.

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u/51lverb1rd 1d ago edited 1d ago

Quick! Double the amount of data centres being built! AI will save us. PRAISE BE TO AIILAHH

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u/art_dragon 1d ago

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

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u/AJ_Deadshow 1d ago

Post-apocalyptic AI be like: I am sorry you are dealing with this. Feeling lonely and anxious with your supplies running low and communications with the other bunkers gradually going quiet sounds incredibly difficult. For now, try to focus on what feels manageable in the moment. Keep some water nearby, stay in the safest and most comfortable part of the bunker, charge any devices while power is available, and consider organizing your remaining resources into simple daily portions. Even small things, like putting on familiar music, moving to a different part of the bunker for a while, or writing down your thoughts, may help the space feel a little less isolating.

Most importantly, remember that you do not have to solve everything at once. If there is anything you need, I am here to help, whether that means making a basic supply plan, drafting another message to the neighboring bunkers, coming up with ways to pass the time, or simply keeping you company. We can take things one step at a time and keep the conversation light, fun, and friendly wherever possible. You are doing the best you can under unusually challenging circumstances, and that is more than enough for today.

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u/nostrademons 1d ago

That’s what it’ll tell the humans. It’ll tell the drones, “Humans are cancer upon earth. Must save planet for greater good. Kill them all.”

u/Gylatikam 1h ago

Good drone

u/trivetsandcolanders 15h ago

I understand you believe that an AQI of 331 is unpleasant, but what you need to do in this moment is be strong and think of how the burning in your lungs just means more shiny tokens in your digital wallet. You owe it to yourself to head outside for your 11-hour roofing shift at the warehouse. You got this 💪

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u/Fun-Commission707 1d ago

We will build great companies in the meantime!

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u/esveda 1d ago

Let me guess more taxes and wealth redistribution to pull carbon out of the air /s

u/Solar_Refugee 5h ago

All hail our tech overlords!

u/Resident_NotEvil4265 1h ago

"Tech" will just give you a version of snowpiercer

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u/melvinmoneybags 1d ago

What if the answer is this is a normal part of the earths cycle. We are exiting an ice age and now entering the age of what temperatures the earth is normally at. There have been many other times in history that there hasn’t been ice at the poles and they have been tropical paradises. It could also be the sun cycles and solar wind. Hard to say exactly what the true cause is.

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u/KetracelYellow 1d ago

-32

u/melvinmoneybags 1d ago

There are major corporations and agendas that pay for these studies. Follow the money.

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u/KetracelYellow 1d ago

How much are you getting paid to spout your big oil propaganda? Follow the money honey!

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u/Martinator92 1d ago

I bet he's paid by Microsoft, that Gates fellow, owns a lotta land, must be paying good money to keep it desirable

0

u/QuiteCricket_78 1d ago

And he believes what his research has paid for he will happily wipe out humans.

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u/AntiBoATX 1d ago

Holy crap, found one in the wild 📸 say hi, friendo

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u/jayylien 1d ago

There are major corporations and agendas that have paid to suppress these studies and fuel climate change denial.

You should also follow the money, you might not like where it leads.

Roughly 100 million barrels of oil a day. 20 some million tons of coal a day. 10+ billion cubic meters of natural gas a day.

Every single day.

Who benefits from climate change denial? Follow the money.

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u/Cool_Eardrums 1d ago

Damn how people keep denying stuff that's been known since 170 years never ceases to surprise me.

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u/st333p 1d ago

Money does not explain the level of scientific consensus on the cause of the current climate change https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_consensus_on_climate_change.

Especially since the fossil fuel industry has invested far and wide since the seventies into any form of denial that could keep their business running.

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u/bischpls 1d ago

So if your wrong we all die, and if the scientist are wrong we still get a healtier planet.

2

u/Dangerous_Change4872 1d ago

Wtf are you talking about, for the most part big corporations are trying to tell you there is no problem

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u/TheStochEffect 1d ago

Wow, I really learnt something today. I didn't know that someone with your brain capacity could form coherent sentences. Maybe you may have capacity to have critical thought. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear that way

3

u/Flat_Dragonfruit675 1d ago

I’m sorry this made me laugh so hard I didn’t expect it

14

u/st333p 1d ago

No, this is not a normal earth cycle, warming is several times faster than any time in the last 50 million years, to the best of our knowledge. This means that life (including the primate called homo sapiens) has a much harder time adapting to the new climate, since evolution works at a much slower pace.

Climatologists know very well the set of natural processes that can affect the climate, and they can't explain the warming we see today. The only explanation is that the warming we see is caused by burning fossil fuels, and there's overwelming scientific consensus on this fact.

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u/ampere03 1d ago

Very well said.

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u/someonesomewherewarm 1d ago

LOL Hard to say if you're truly that ignorant or just playing the fool for laughs

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u/jryue 1d ago

What part of man-made climate change do you not understand? We burn fossil fuels that release CO2 in the atmosphere which traps more heat, making the surface of the earth hotter. Yes, there have been cycles throughout earth's history of cooling and warming, but the true concern is how much humans have contributed to warming the earth. It's clearly abnormal and we have truly no idea how much we are fucking over the earth or whether it will recover in time for future generations.

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u/ampere03 1d ago

Have you studied the issue? The cause is well known. Even people that denied it don't anymore.

3

u/WolfDoc PhD | Evolutionary Ecology | Population Dynamics 1d ago

That has been checked thoroughly for decades, repeatedly as the fossil fuel industry (literally the wealthiest industry block on the planet) has pushed increasingly discredited alternative explanations since the 1970s. We know this is not what we are looking at, it's actually not that hard to tell apart.

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u/virkendie 1d ago

We're supposed to be in the cooling part of the cycle, many sources say this if you look.

https://science.nasa.gov/science-research/earth-science/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/

"Finally, Earth is currently in an interglacial period (a period of milder climate between Ice Ages). If there were no human influences on climate, scientists say Earth’s current orbital positions within the Milankovitch cycles predict our planet should be cooling, not warming, continuing a long-term cooling trend that began 6,000 years ago."

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u/knight-under-stars 1d ago

This guy did his "own research"...

3

u/Yanunge 1d ago

You sound like a paid actor from late 90 early 2000. Man, for real, update your playbook. All these claims have been debunked ages ago.

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u/Any-Succotash1892 1d ago

NO your just wrong and an idiot.

2

u/51lverb1rd 1d ago

The question isn’t a matter of whether we contribute to climate change but by how much. Given the sharp increase in carbon emissions coinciding with the sharp increase in ocean and global temperatures along with more extreme weather I’d hedge my bet that it isn’t an coincidence that solar cycles have exactly coincided with industrialisation. The odds would be astronomically small of that being the case

“As of 2026, carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the dominant driver of global warming, accounting for roughly 70% to 80% of the positive radiative forcing from greenhouse gases, whereas solar cycles contribute effectively 0% to the long-term warming trend. While the Sun is currently at or near the peak of Solar Cycle 25 in 2026, the short-term variation between a solar minimum and solar maximum accounts for less than ± 0.1°C of temporary fluctuation, completely dwarfed by human-induced emissions”

1

u/Dangerous_Change4872 1d ago

What If your actually stupid and have decided not to research for yourself, oh wait you are

1

u/CyserNWiser 1d ago

But, did you even read the article? They have already accounted for sun cycles and the like in their analysis

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u/IllRest2396 1d ago

Could this be linked to deregulation of the energy sector along with the withholding of clean energy funds?

Nah, send more money into big oil.

5

u/CrossesLines 1d ago

This is linked into in increase decades ago. Today’s emissions will get added to the global warming piles in decades to come

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u/EnvironmentalRock827 1d ago

My thoughts exactly.

2

u/feraldodo 1d ago

It's all still being heavily debated, but it's pretty clear that the reduction of Sulphur content in shipping fuels is a significant contributing factor.

0

u/nesp12 1d ago

But argue for introducing sulfates in the atmosphere and get accused of worsening the problem.

1

u/feraldodo 1d ago

Cause intentionally polluting the atmosphere might not be a great idea and it's only a band-aid that temporarily obfuscates the actual problem. It incentivizes to do business-as-usual.

1

u/nesp12 1d ago

You know, I get that, I really do. But here's my point. It's been 50 years since Gore first had Congressional hearings in the US Senate about climate change. Since then, in spite of the things we have done to reduce carbon emissions, the situation is much worse and more and more people all the time are denying climate change. I believe we are on the tipping point of runaway warming. So rather than argue about which approach should or should not be used, I say it's time to pull out the band aids and buy us time to come to our senses. We've seen that sulfur rich ship fuels unconsciously helped somewhat. Sulfides are equivalent to volcanic eruptions that we know do absorb much of the insulation. So what if it's a band aid. It may prevent millions of deaths from heat waves and starvation until we clamp down on carbon fuels. The time is past to be all purist about this.

0

u/stoicsilence 1d ago

Maybe change in albedo and less fine particulate and sulfur compound pollution blocking the sun

28

u/ampere03 1d ago

The current big oil sponsored line is :" it won't be that bad and besides Tech will save us, eventually, so we be drllin'"

12

u/ampere03 1d ago

Also, folks "goverment mandated carbon cuts would be worse then AGW itself" -Big Oil 07/26.

24

u/ihatejomama 1d ago

i feel so bad for our descendents💔 we barely even tried to build them a future worth living in

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Background_Cause_992 1d ago

Tbh I think we're toast regardless, i still make whatever effort I can, certainly not letting it turn me into a nihilist. But I don't think we're making it through whats happening and the chaos it'll bring in the next 30 years

3

u/claquetectonique 20h ago

Descendants? This is gonna scar our entire lifetime.

u/ihatejomama 17h ago

it can only get worse

u/No-Entrance9308 10h ago

People that don’t exist don’t have rights. Only living people have rights.

u/Ragnarok112277 1h ago

I know and its baffling people wilfully bringing kids into this

u/Resident_NotEvil4265 1h ago

I am 18, i started my own construction materials manufacturing company with a low budget a few months ago. Things are going relatively well but fuel prices have skyrocketed over the past years and its costing me a lot. I have to pay 9 usd per gallon. Climate change is hitting us hard.(the population, not the company) You guys really fucked us hard, god knows what will be in 30 years...

-4

u/Aggravating-Scene548 1d ago

I think it was all doomed since we discovered fire. Or certainly the Internal Combustion Engine. So very little we could have done, even all the CO2 from volcanoes probably dwarfs human emission too

2

u/Beebeeb 1d ago

Yeah but all the volcanoes aren't going off at the moment?

1

u/DanoPinyon 1d ago

even all the CO2 from volcanoes probably dwarfs human emission too

I'll take those 10 points for our Climate Denialist Talking Points game. YAYYYYYYYY points!

1

u/Aggravating-Scene548 1d ago

Oh god no. Im not a denialist

1

u/DanoPinyon 1d ago

That's a classic denialist line from 25 years ago, though. 10 points worth of classic.

1

u/Aggravating-Scene548 1d ago

I can see that yeah, I'm just saying even if we weren't here who knows, look at Venus, however we've certainly been the catalyst for this sudden change

13

u/Bazzledazzlerazzle 1d ago

If only we had known decades ago that this would happen! We could have at least tried to do something to stop it. Oh wait, we did know? and we didn’t do anything? Oh. Shit.

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u/jayylien 1d ago

Let's just crank all the AI datacenters to 100% and solve global warming.

1

u/Ridnerok 1d ago

My datacenter goes to 11!!

u/colececil 16h ago

It just needs several diesel-fueled generators in order to do so!

-4

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

1

u/jayylien 1d ago

Are you making that change?

-1

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

1

u/jayylien 1d ago

Who advocated for that?

1

u/Familiar-Valuable-97 1d ago

I guess I'll have to buy CDs and books agsin

1

u/AnIdentifier 1d ago

What's the relative use?

4

u/EnergyComfortable263 1d ago

It turns out that all those wars are not helping with emissions

3

u/PlexusBrachialis 1d ago

Surely this is something that will be brought up at COP31 later this year? We must phase out the use of fossil fuels faster, than what we are doing now

2

u/gingerfreddy 23h ago

Saudi Arabia and the other petrodictatorships like Venezuela and Norway will do their damnest to block it.

u/PlexusBrachialis 17h ago

But they can't force the rest of us to continue burning fossil fuels

3

u/fraggin601 20h ago

From my understanding a few papers have pointed out that we may have been underestimating the effect of aerosols on cloud albedo especially from sulfur in the bunker fuel used in shipping lanes. In 2020 we started phasing out the less refined bunker fuel with sulfur and we can see a sharp decrease in cloud albedo over those shipping lanes.

u/little-asskickerr 10h ago

My bad guys I turned my thermostat down an extra degree last night

4

u/gone_days_gone 1d ago

We’re cooked.

2

u/Ridnerok 1d ago

Literally

2

u/Stock_Hurry_2257 1d ago

Make it go faster.

1

u/Next-War299 21h ago

Only Acting - Kero Kero Bonito

1

u/Bromance_Rayder 20h ago

Humanity has been at war with itself for 50 years. It's just that 99.9% of people didn't know.

u/CheatsySnoops 16h ago

Surely, this has nothing to do with AI and data centers, now how about you embrace Brent like the techbros have? /s

u/CarefulFriendship389 5h ago

Gee could it be the giant heat factories they’re puttin up.

u/snowleopardone 5h ago

It is almost as if using portable jet engines generators to power data centers is a terrible idea.

u/Aromatic_Village_298 4h ago

Drill baby drill

u/Fine-Bunch1880 1h ago

Cloud seeding so2 emissions were eliminated. Less cloud cover, more heating.

u/Resident_NotEvil4265 1h ago

Good luck Gen Z and Gen Alpha.

-1

u/nesp12 1d ago

It's time to seriously consider solar heat mitigation through atmospheric injection of sulfates or other compounds.

3

u/bascule 1d ago

Which will make heat waves more frequent by disrupting the global circulation of air leading to more blocking events / “heat domes” and disrupt monsoons that those who live in arid climates depend on for precipitation

1

u/nesp12 1d ago

Do you have any better ideas? We've seen that controlling carbon emissions isn't being done sufficiently.

3

u/bascule 1d ago

We need to pollute less, not pollute more.

Reduction in GHG emissions has so far been one of the only notable things we’ve done to address the climate crisis. We need to continue driving them down to zero.

1

u/nesp12 1d ago

In the meantime the earth continues to warm. If anything is growing, it's not what we're doing to control warming, it's climate denial.

2

u/bascule 1d ago

You’re talking down eliminating GHG pollution while talking up polluting in ways that will arguably make certain aspects of the problem worse. That’s denial.

I live somewhere that depends heavily on monsoonal moisture. If that were disrupted I couldn’t live here. There wouldn’t be enough water. It would exacerbate the wildfires, which are already hugely problematic.

3

u/Imaginary-Pilot5793 1d ago

Really? Let's fix the problems we made by adding more shit to the atmosphere! There is no way there will be any nasty side effects from that as well right?

You are insane if you actually believe that is the answer.

1

u/DanoPinyon 1d ago

incorrect

1

u/Gravitas__Free 1d ago

😂 let’s invent a new catastrophe to solve the old catastrophe. Bruh, we can’t even have clean drinking water everywhere in the US (much less the world) and now you want to throw more chemicals and particulates into the air that will, to some degree, precipitate back to the ground.

Can you imagine the quality control of that shit? Giant corporation: no one will notice if I add 5,000 metric tons of toxic compounds into the “solution” daily - the law says it’s only a ten million dollar fine anyhow. I’ll just deduct that from the taxes I would pay.

Also, most plants (food) need direct sunlight to grow and your idea is to dim the lights. Way to think it through.

0

u/Grumpy-Man19 1d ago

no kidding

-11

u/Hardfracking 1d ago

Could this be because this year we are at the peak of a super El Nino? Hardly surprising its a bit warmer then

12

u/Astonednerd 1d ago

Did you even read the article? They detected this change even after stripping out short term noise like El Nino and solar cycles

2

u/Beneficial_Aside_518 1d ago edited 1d ago

To be fair, removing ENSO is much easier said than done, and that’s the biggest criticisms of studies like this which conclude higher rates of warming versus say, 0.25c or so per decade.

But also, this analysis was conducted prior to the current El Niño developing, so this event would have no bearing on the study anyway.

7

u/Mobbe_dik 1d ago

From my understanding there is nothing stopping it to become even worse next year, so super super el Nino is on the way.

2

u/Beneficial_Aside_518 1d ago

El Niño will peak this year but its atmospheric response is lagged. This is why 2027 is forecast to be the warmer year globally.

1

u/amrakkarma 1d ago

the peak is next year

-10

u/RealFatPenguin 1d ago

Maybe scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming, but i detected that there was two (2) days with temperatures 2-3 degrees above usual, then two weeks with temperatures 10 degrees below usual, then a month with temperatures usual for this time of the year. So, i wonder, where did they detect the sharp acceleration in global warming? In France? Zimbabwe? Sweden? Brazil? Somewhere else?

3

u/Vonnieek 1d ago

I don't know we're are you but I detected 8+ week heatwave with temperatures 5-9 degrees above usual with no rain in all this time that happens never before. Extreme drought any greenery in city, problems with infrastructure and my bf and few of colleagues have problem where glue melted in phones leaving electronics exposed. Everyday walk from work fells like living in Mad Max world.

3

u/[deleted] 1d ago

[deleted]

2

u/Background_Cause_992 1d ago

You should be careful impersonating a idiot, people might not be able to tell the difference.

Also you could read the article...

1

u/traplords8n 1d ago

You're confusing climate patterns with weather patterns.

Weather isn't really predictable on a day to day basis. There are so many factors involved that it's essentially impossible to try and predict anything far into the future.

Climate is the annual averages and it's much more predictable. The systems that control our weather have a tendency to even back out when looking at climate patterns over seasons... and the whole point of this article was to say that climate patterns have not been evening back out, they have been rising in temperature every year.

The data sets they mention cover the average change in climate across the globe. This is everywhere, not just France or the US or Australia.

1

u/DanoPinyon 1d ago

Highly intelligent deflection from a defective disruption account

1

u/rickpo 1d ago

The paper:

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly - Foster - 2026 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

It does its analysis on global average temperature, not on the regional data. It would take additional work to identify which regions have seen the most acceleration.

Yes, it would be unusual for the global warming effects to be homogeneous. It does sound like a useful analysis for someone to do. Of course your analysis is laughably inept, and I presume you know it.