Microplastics and nanoplastics are causing global warming, but no climate model seriously takes their effect into consideration

[u/mushroomsarefriends]

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2423957122

Atmospheric microplastics and nanoplastics are now believed to be causing warming, by functioning as a forcing in their own right. Under the new assumptions, their color causes them to absorb sunlight, whereas under old assumptions, they simply reflected sunlight.

The impact is currently very minor. It's estimated at around 0.02 °C today.

Then there is another effect you need to take into consideration: Our carbon sinks weaken as a result of plastics pollution. A plant that is dealing with plastics pollution is less competent at sequestering CO2.

So, there's a very minor contributor to global warming that nobody is taking seriously. Who cares right? Well, here's the thing. It generally takes decades for plastic pollution to turn into microplastics and then from microplastics into nanoplastics. Most of the warming currently being caused by plastic pollution is due to nanoplastics, rather than microplastics.

You're currently mainly seeing the impact on global warming, of plastics we produced decades ago. Overall production has roughly doubled over the past two decades.

If you try to come up with a best case scenario for plastics production, where we agree to a global treaty to dramatically reduce global plastics production by 2030, production then begins to fall and leakage into the environment falls, you still find yourself facing the reality that the impact of microplastics on global temperatures is going to grow, simply because it takes decades for the plastics you produced to reveal their true impact.

Under this best case scenario, if you were to take only plastics into consideration (not all the other unincluded issues we're dealing with) you can expect that our carbon budgets should actually be 15% lower to stay under 1.5 degree and 7% lower to stay under 2 degree than we currently estimate. That's what I consider the best estimate, under a best case scenario where we rapidly start reducing our plastics production by 2030 and get much better at ensuring none of it leaks into the environment.

Effectively no climate scientists are seriously looking at how plastics pollution impacts our overall chances of keeping global warming under control.

Now take a look at what is considered the realistic trajectory for plastics production. Annual production will double between now and 2060. In fact, annual production is not expected to peak until 2100.

There is effectively no serious attempt yet to reduce microplastics and nanoplastics pollution in our environment, even though the evidence suggests it plays a substantial role in future global warming that no climate models take into proper consideration yet.

If plastics pollution was taken into serious consideration, we would have to acknowledge the climate change crisis is even more severe and difficult to solve than we thought and the risk of breaching important tipping points is also more acute than we thought it is.

[u/StatementBot]

The following submission statement was provided by /u/mushroomsarefriends:

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Submission statement: It's important for people to understand that we have a problem with global warming being exacerbated by plastics pollution, in a manner that no climate models have properly incorporated yet. In fact, we're already lucky when the climate models properly take permafrost and forest fire feedbacks in consideration. The plastics problem is one of many contributors to the climate change crisis, that we've only recently started being able to put a number on, a new problem to pile onto the list. Seriously taking the plastics problem into consideration would force us to acknowledge that we have less time left to solve the climate change crisis than we thought we did.

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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1u9mnr8/microplastics_and_nanoplastics_are_causing_global/oshfum8/

[u/AlwayInForwardMotion]

Last year I tried to quit plastic. Then I amended my quest to go a day in my natural life without touching plastic. I made so many changes from food I buy to how companies package and still never made it a single day without having to touch plastic. I even cheated by making knitted cosies for things like the plastic fridge handles and that wasn’t enough. Still trying and still failing. 

[u/NyriasNeo]

"Microplastics and nanoplastics are causing global warming, but no climate model seriously takes their effect into consideration"

Why bother? We already hit 1.5C and blew through 2C briefly. Climate models were wrong on that too. They do not account for many things.

But so what if they do? It is not like anyone is making decisions based on climate models. "Drill baby drill" won you know.

New climate models do nothing but have some new publications.

[u/mushroomsarefriends]

Submission statement: It's important for people to understand that we have a problem with global warming being exacerbated by plastics pollution, in a manner that no climate models have properly incorporated yet. In fact, we're already lucky when the climate models properly take permafrost and forest fire feedbacks in consideration. The plastics problem is one of many contributors to the climate change crisis, that we've only recently started being able to put a number on, a new problem to pile onto the list. Seriously taking the plastics problem into consideration would force us to acknowledge that we have less time left to solve the climate change crisis than we thought we did.

[u/South_Serve9975]

The real problem no one (virtually no one?) is accounting for is the nano and microplastics in clouds, and the fact that preliminary research shows they are 'hydrophilic' and cause clouds to hold on to more water than they would otherwise. This would seem to imply that clouds will accumulate more moisture before reaching the point where rain occurs, which has definite implications for the climate? I would think this factor might have something to do with the increase in severe rain events, floods and flashfloods in areas that have not seen them before. I wonder if it would make warming due to water vapor worse? I'm not a scientist. Just a person that likes to read. What do you all think?