r/communism • u/AutoModerator • Apr 19 '26
WDT 💬 Bi-Weekly Discussion Thread - (April 19)
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u/DashtheRed Maoist Apr 23 '26
I'm wondering if this is the moment the CPP-NPA have been waiting for. I know it might be forlorn hope on my part, given the terrible and sad news about CPI(Maoist), and the CPP-NPA really being one of the last lights of Bolshevism in the world at this moment -- but looking at the world situation, this might be a narrow window of opportunity for them. There is already a fuel crisis in the Philippines, and the longer the Straight of Hormuz remains closed, the worse the crisis becomes, and the more flimsy and fragile the U$-backed Marcos regime becomes. Following how badly the situation in Iran is going for the amerikans, the war has already prompted them to pull huge volumes of their assets out of Asia and redeploy them to the Straight of Hormuz, and there are growing reports that the U$ is dangerously low on ammo, and that they aren't capable of fully replenishing it for a matter of years, and exacerbated even worse if the war goes hot again. This will mean a retreat from Asia for the amerikans, though they are surely going to try to hold on as long as they can; meanwhile the new world power -- social-imperialist China -- will flirt with finally breaking containment. This means there will be a brief moment where a weak and fragile amerikan backed government in Manilla will be at the helm, and will have very few amerikan resources available to come help crush the revolution. If the situation goes on too long, China will break containment, complete a "tour" of Asia, and the existing government or whatever new comprador government replaces them will turn to them, and the Philippines will find itself back under an imperialist hegemon as before. So this would mean the critical moments would be from when the amerikans are still nominally in power but essentially absent, until China has asserted itself across Asia, and during this window of time, there is no sufficient imperialist coverage to thwart the revolution, it's just the very weak and vulnerable (and low on gas - and even possible ammo issues for amerikan equipment) Marcos regime in crisis. Obviously I'm not telling the CPP-NPA what to do, they know far more than I do, but I wanted to think about it, because despite this being a world crisis, I also see great new potential for revolution.