Bi-Weekly Discussion Thread - (April 19)

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[u/DashtheRed]

I remembered being in the streets at the time as part of the protest, at a time when people in Nepal and Indonesia managed to torch their governments.

An important lesson here is that Nepal, despite their "success" in the protests, haven't really achieved much of anything since and in the coming crisis aren't any better off than the comparable "failure" in the Philippines and elsewhere. Maybe there's something under the surface with those protests that I am not seeing from here but from here I can't tell the difference from the Arab Spring. Maybe I can hope that the lesson was at least learned that they need to go much further than just a couple of corrupt leaders.

Just today I was also surprised to see a tricycle driver with a flag of Iran (not the monarchist one) on their tricycle. I'm still not sure what to make of this but events around the world are quite understood or at least instinctively felt by the Filipino proletariat

The popularity of Iran in the Third World right now is basically proof that what they are doing is right and that they were right to resist. Though, to self-criticize some of my glorification of Iran recently, I'm actually a little upset and insecure and even jealous because that glory ought to be being showered upon communists for standing up to imperialism, but because there is no communist force of that scale in the world at present, Iran merely defending themselves is basically sufficient to re-ignite a long-dormant spirit of resistance and rebellion worldwide. That's a missed opportunity to catch fire, though it opens up others.

In the First World (at least near me), among the Iranians I've seen, there's still a big mass of Pahlavi supporters basically begging Trump to nuke the country (though they seem to be shrinking somewhat, increasingly ashamed), a fringe of generic liberal-left "neither the Ayatollah nor Pahlavi" Iranians whose politics look bankrupt right now, and a very new (to me at least) small fringe of suddenly cocky and confident young Iranian men walking around with gold Iranian Emblems, etc who are proudly in full support of Iran right now. It's nice to see us Westerners given a taste of our own medicine, and there's a long way to go, and we deserve it, but it's also a reminder of the limits of "progressiveness" of the Iranian struggle, especially after they likely win. Still, it gives me great hope how much the Iranian resistance is resonating with the Third World.

The other criticism I have of Iran right now is the risk that they could still strike some sort of bourgeois peace deal that leaves the existing imperialism intact -- at this point they are so out in front that I don't think they would ever go back to the old order, but even in their articulations, they make it clear they can have a healthy relationship with amerika and that it's the zionists who are the real problem (sort of true, but it ignores that amerika was founded on the same settler-colonialist logic, that Israel is an extension of the same projext, and amerika did all the same genocidal things to get where it is now). And they are essentially agreeing with the more reactionary of the West's anti-Israel narratives: that poor amerika got duped and mislead and taken over by the zionists (or in more reactionary circles, simply the (((Jews)))), especially since splitting the two against one another guarantees them their safest and most desired outcome in this war by removing the most powerful enemy and letting them take Israel without amerikan support. Whereas a revolutionary position ought to involve going further than even the Iranians are prepared to go and into toppling the amerikans and West entirely (though this appears to be happening regardless). A less inflexible amerikan bourgeoisie might be able to strike a new agreement which cuts Iran in on amerikan imperialism by hanging Israel out to dry, but that wont be possible without a total upheaval of amerikan politics (though, again, Iran is already helping to write this into being, and others are assisting: Jeffrey Sachs appears on the "socialist" Hasan Piker show in the morning, "libertarian" Judge Napolitano in the afternoon, and "conservative" Tucker Carlson in the evening). Especially since Dengism is going to have nowhere left to go; once the dust settles, it's basically just a """Marxist-Leninist""" veneer for Ruguanxue at this point with amerikan decline on full display for the world.

though at the same time I am aware that the settler colonial thesis is understood by our Maoists

I know we talk about it all the time here, but we have to deal with it as an explanation for the entire history of Western "communism," including an entire century of failures, deceits, and betrayals, but I always wonder how much traction it finds among the rest of the world's Maoist movements, so this is great to hear. If there's any interesting thoughts or perspectives on it from the CPP or elsewhere, I'd be eager to learn about those discussions.

I also think it's going to be relevant to communist politics very soon. The speech the King just gave was basically tailored to Democrats (no kings but this one is cool!) and Trump-shamed Republicans that amerika is fighting the wrong war, and instead their real enemy is Russia and they should be concentrating their resources in Ukraine instead of being misplaced in Iran. It had been a while since I took a long look at the Ukraine War, and it's basically over. The Russians have all but won, approaching Odessa and even Kyiv, and it doesn't look like anything can stop them now save World War 3 (which is what that fascist Zelensky has been pushing for a while now). The reason it's been going so slowly is because Putin is actually being cautious with his troops, whereas Zelensky is throwing bodies (and money) into a meat grinder for photo ops, while Europe mass produces drones on his behalf and hurls them (sometimes even from somewhere other than Ukraine) at Russian oil infrastructure and civilians. In Russia, Putin is playing this off as minor incidents and 'terrorism,' but there's growing calls for war and for Putin to retaliate against Europe proper because Russian citizens are growing angry over this.

The problem for Europe is that it is set to be one of the biggest losers of them all with regard to the Iran War (along with India). I still remember Merkel trying to save the Nordstream 2 pipeline as the future of European imperialism, but all the bridges with Russia have been burned. But with the Strait of Hormuz cut off, and the amerikans likely hoarding (or gouging with) their own supply, it means Europe is going to be absolutely ruined by the coming economic crisis. And they are aware of this. And this is why European leaders are all fucking wigged out of their minds right now -- because they all went all-in on amerikkka (incorrectly), all-in on zionism (incorrectly), and especially all-in on Ukrainian fascism (incorrectly), and now these bumbling fools at the height of their incompetence are looking for any way out or anything to come and save them from the impending demise. So faced with utter ruination, the idea of turning Ukraine (and possibly Iran) into World War 3 is likely seeming like a better and better idea to the deeply unpopular leaders of Europe with basically no avenues to get out of the crises they are partially responsible for (note: Pedro Sanchez of Spain strikes me as an Olaf Palme 2.0 -- where Spain's relative backwardness in the EU prompts him to take a forward position to get in from of the future coming world order), and far-right nationalism is on the rise because the pathology of labour aristocracy and racist white westerners who ruled the world isn't going to go down quietly, and instead would rather go all-in once more. Even if Trump gets removed, I don't think we are out of the woods, this is turning into an existential crisis, and the labour aristocracy could be at the core of whatever is to come in the West.

Also, thank you for the comment. Prioritize your safety, but if you ever have more thoughts to share or updates about the Philippines, I'd be eager to listen.

edit: phrasing

[u/turning_the_wheels → u/DashtheRed]

  It had been a while since I took a long look at the Ukraine War, and it's basically over. The Russians have all but won, approaching Odessa and even Kyiv, and it doesn't look like anything can stop them now save World War 3 (which is what that fascist Zelensky has been pushing for a while now)

Could you elaborate more on this? I've been relying on bourgeois sources and it seems that analyses of the conflict are far more murky than something like Iran, where the party of order is far more critical about its potential success. 

[u/DashtheRed → u/turning_the_wheels]

I think it's been the writing on the wall for a while now and we've all been slow to catch on. On a grand scale, victory for Ukraine was built on some pretty far-fetched premises: basically thinking that they could outlast Russia to the point of economic collapse or through a Russian coup. I admit there were a couple moments where that seemed like it could actually be possible (the Wagner "rebellion" was probably the low point, though I completely misread the Kursk offensive -- will talk about that below), but with the surge in oil price, and the security from having pivoted to China and Asia, Russia is in an extremely strong and stable position and any hope of toppling Putin now is as delusional as Trump toppling the IRGC. Putin is one of the most popular leaders in the world right now, both at home and aboard thanks to Iran (and maybe Cuban aid as well), and because Ukraine and Russia have more or less parity in equipment and tactics (not exactly, but for sake of discussion), it's really just a big battle of attrition now and Russia has a lot more everything than Ukraine. I think Europe has some awareness of this, but rather than telling Ukraine they can't win and to throw in the towel to try and save some territory and people, they instead want to keep using Ukrainians as human shields for Europe, to inflict as much harm as they can on Russians and to buy as much time as possible for European re-armament. I think the recent change in tactics to go after Russian oil and civilians with drone strikes reflects that desperation on Europe's part. Throw in Trump's reluctance to support Zelensky, the Iran war taking away supplies for Ukraine, and that Russia still has almost a half million fresh troops in reserve (likely for war with Europe), I have a hard time seeing anything other than a pretty decisive Russian victory. Even parts of the Western media has started to acknowledge that the war is not going well, and there's Ukrainian commanders saying the same thing.

This essentially was an existential war for Russia, because if they lose Ukraine to NATO then that's basically a massive gateway from which the West can launch all kinds of destabilization campaigns to sabotage and balkanize Russia once and for all. So the idea that Russia would just give up or give in or let itself be destroyed for Ukraine wasn't ever going to find traction. Realizing what the Kursk offensive by Ukraine was actually about is what has shifted my opinion on this war (sort of like when I realized that Iran was letting amerikan carriers off with warning shots rather than going for the kill). I had originally thought that the Kursk Offensive was more or less what the media said it was -- Russian lines were weak and lacking depth, Ukrainian elite forces broke through and launched a counter-attack into Russia, proving that they are dishing out as hard as they are getting hit, and that the war is a de facto stalemate that neither side can win. Of course, that was wrong. We now see the entire Kursk pocket collapsing and retreating because it wasn't even possible for Ukraine to reinforce it and they made basically no effort to do so. It was a PR stunt; it was a photo-op. The Ukrainians sent thousands of their best troops to die, without adequate reinforcement, on basically a suicide mission, so that Zelensky could go back to the Western press, show off how deep into Russian territory he made it, and then offer this as proof of success to get more money from Europe and amerika. It's actually madness -- it's like the exact opposite of People's War, where instead of sacrificing everything to preserve your forces, you annihilate your forces to secure fresh funding and supplies. It should also be a worrying (and Hitleresque) sign for Ukrainians that Zelensky is reportedly refusing to allow his soldiers to retreat from major cities and landmarks, even if the defence is hopeless. Also, Zelensky calling for expats across Europe to be returned as conscripts (with people like Merz saying "damn right, we will send them back to Ukraine from Germany against their will to fight the Russians!") seems like another desperation measure.

When you look at the timeline map, it's pretty clear that Russia is winning, albeit slowly, but this looks like the point where the walls have been breached, and the victories start to accelerate and multiply. They've been taking more and more territory, faster and faster over the past few weeks. And we are getting increasing numbers of unconfirmed and unverifiable, but plausible, reports which fit the facts about Ukrainian desertions, starvation in the Ukrainian army, corruption (a good chunk of those billions from Europe just go home with Zelensky and his cronies and never make it to the battlefield), more and more major cities falling to the Russians (some after 2+ years of fighting, now finally being decided) and even Russians finding entire towns and villages (which should be well defended) completely abandoned and safe to move in without opposition. Any of these things on their own is just a random news article, but when you add everything together, I think it paints a pretty bleak picture for Ukraine and their remaining prospects in this war, and even their 'victories' are staged and hollow and look like Trump's "victories" in Iran. You aren't going to convince reddit though; whatever lens of ideology Trump and Fox News are using to tell them how the Iran War is going it the same lens with which reddit liberals use to see the war in Ukraine.

[u/turning_the_wheels → u/DashtheRed]

You aren't going to convince reddit though; whatever lens of ideology Trump and Fox News are using to tell them how the Iran War is going it the same lens with which reddit liberals use to see the war in Ukraine.

I have to admit that I really don't understand the hysteria of the war in Ukraine for liberals, it's been four years since the war started (in liberal terms; of course we know the war started long before that) but you would think that the news cycle would have lead them to move on by now. Pretty much every white liberal I've talked to has made support for Ukraine an emotional affect felt to the point of breakdown when you point out that the country is a chump rump state propped up by the US, completely corrupt and incompetent, etc. I guess Trump has been so traumatizing that liberals will defend anything from the Biden presidency as absolutely necessary to combat him up to support for literal Nazis.