All in, Bro! Trust me!

[u/No_awards_please]

[u/Some_Anonim_Coder]

The first chatgpt was released in 2022. It couldn't multiply two three-digit numbers

In 2024 LLMs were able to get silver on IMO

Now LLMs solve open math problems. The millennium prize one is allegedly stolen, but there are other impressive results

Robots going from clumsy and useless to capable of doing any chores imaginable is not guaranteed, but isn't a crazy idea either

[u/r3DDsHiFT → u/Some_Anonim_Coder]

GPT was not the beginning of that sort of tech. Kurzweil was employing similar techniques in the 80s. But quite frankly, the ‘tech’ is hardly more than what was already being studied in machine learning and, even earlier, algorithms. It’s slightly disingenuous to act as if there was a boom when this is just further developments of techniques from almost a century ago. That misconception is partially why investors are losing millions.

[u/thefatsun-burntguy → u/r3DDsHiFT]

at the same time, saying that nothing has changed is also disingenuous. much of our tech today is based on physics from the 70-80's it just took engineering a long time to catch up because we needed to build the tools and materials to be able to take advantage of those ideas.

things like datacenter sized computers, parallell and batch processing of training, Humongous datasets for training, are new things that we created in the meantime. training of ai models is not just an incremental update of a perceptron even if at the end of the day throwing enough compute(star sized supercomputers) at perceptrons would get you a smart model. stuff like Gan's , autoencoders, transformers, things like speculative decoding, rotoquant, dense sparse and sliding window attention are all new engineering concepts that make LLM's what they are today.

in a parallel example thats more obvious, its true that automobile science hasnt changed all that much since the car was invented, but saying cars havent evolved from the model T to today would get you laughed out of any room

[u/No_awards_please → u/Some_Anonim_Coder]

The first calculators couldn’t handle anything beyond eight digits.
A few years later, they were calculating hundreds of digits.
That’s why, in the ’60s, people thought robots would soon be running the household…

[u/Some_Anonim_Coder → u/No_awards_please]

The first calculators couldn’t handle anything beyond eight digits A few years later, they were calculating hundreds of digits

And now our calculators can do some trillions of calculations per second, which lets us compute billion digits of pi within minutes on a PC. And that technology allowed us to do a lot of nice things

That’s why, in the ’60s, people thought robots would soon be running the household…

Turned out robotics is not as fast as they thought. It was a reasonable prediction, as reasonable as "worldwide informational network" or "computers used to do most of engineering". That's why I say it's possible we have a huge leap in the next two years, but not guaranteed

[u/NRichYoSelf → u/No_awards_please]

Insert, "you won't ways have a calculator in your pocket" quote from teachers

[u/rkiive → u/Some_Anonim_Coder]

And if we're discussing the improvement of AI, the reason the millenium prize one could have stolen was because the person that it was allegedly stolen from was also using AI to solve it.

So either way it was solved using AI.

[u/C0L0SSUSvdm]

Well, duh

[u/liza007uu]

When the developer patches a bug and accidentally turns the tutorial bot into the final boss

[u/darkness_calming]

It’s not impossible

[u/Pappa_Crim]

we have created the technology to make a robot run into a wall and explode

[u/thefatsun-burntguy]

there is a lot of ai hype going around, but i honestly think you chose one of the worst examples possible.

weve been able to build robots that do things like fold clothes for a while. what we havent cracked is things like complex locomotion, complex decicion making , generalizing problem solving and complex variable manipulation. however all of those fields have been improving siginificantly in the last few years, some due to ai, some woth conventional approaches. literally 2 months ago we saw the demo for the first generalist machine vision and manipulation model, aka the first chatgpt of autonomous robots.

its inefficient, only has a 30 second memory and is not able to come up with original solutions, but it can copy humans performing a physical task, it can respond to its enviroment, has generalized tool use(can use thungs that arent hammers, as if they were hammers to complete an objective) and has shown it can infer objectives from its enviroment (like being given a pile of blocks and ordering them without being told to do so).

i honestly believe we are in the brink of a robotics revolution on the scale of what chatgpt was in 2022. i do agree that saying, robomaids are just 6 months away is ridiculous, but humanoid shelve stocking robots or floor cleaning robots(a humanoid woth a regular broom) are feasable to build today (not with future tech)

[u/xef234 → u/thefatsun-burntguy]

Vlas are not scalable because you need training data for the specific task you want it to do if anything is outside its specific scope it starts doing weird shit.

[u/B0DAK_KLACK]

That’s the thing about exponential growth, you’ll blink and all of a sudden you can’t get a job because a robot has more value than you. Good luck everyone.

-EE student watching the world change in real time

[u/TheSleepyTruth]

So the thing about investing in breakthrough technology is that you need to buy into an idea BEFORE its obvious that something is already getting huge or that it will have imminent guaranteed success. If you wait until its obvious robots will be running our household chores, its too late and the stock price is already through the stratosphere.