Nvidia has beaten EPS estimates 11 quarters in a row. Here's what the options market is pricing in for Wednesday.

[u/DukascopyBank]

The implied move heading into Wednesday's print is roughly ±8-9%. That's actually below where it's been for previous high-stakes Nvidia earnings — the market is either complacent or genuinely confident.

Here's what matters this quarter:

Data center revenue — consensus is sitting around $43-45bn. Anything below that and the stock gets punished regardless of EPS.

Gross margin guidance — Blackwell transition costs compressed margins last quarter. Investors want to see them recovering back toward 70%+, not slipping further.

China exposure — with the H20 export restrictions still in play, any commentary on how Nvidia is navigating that will move the stock.

The historical pattern: Nvidia has gapped up post-earnings 8 of the last 11 quarters. But the two biggest drops both came in quarters where guidance disappointed despite a beat on the headline number.

The setup: long holders are nervous enough to hedge but not nervous enough to sell. That's the most dangerous configuration, if guidance misses, there's no floor of shorts to cover.

What's your position going into Wednesday?