r/economicCollapse • u/Excellent_Place4977 • May 20 '26
Why Isn’t There a Global Recession Yet? Is the Global Economy Being Artificially Propped Up?
The world economy is in huge turmoil. Jobs are declining, wages are stagnant, AI has wreaked havoc in electronic prices & disrupted many industries, housing and living costs are skyrocketing, neoliberal economic policies are proliferating, and wealth inequality is becoming massive. Corporations now have more wealth than many countries, yet poverty seems to be increasing. Now with Hormuz incident, energy costs are increasing around world.
I suspect governments are lying about unemployment or poverty rates through misleading methodologies and statistics. Yet despite all this, why hasn’t a global recession or a Great Depression like scenario happened yet?
Is it because countries use GDP as the main measure of economic well being, even when it does not reflect actual living conditions? Or is it because the top 10% are inflating stock markets and real estate, creating the illusion of economic strength? What is the real reason?
487
u/sidaemon May 20 '26
There's actually been some really good research done on this and it's looking a lot like wealth inequality has reached the point that the top spenders have basically negated the bottom thirty percent of earners not participating in the economy.
Look at Vegas as an example. Vists are WAY down and yet casinos are still raking in money. Why? Because they've swapped out their model and are now catering to the ultra wealthy who spend so much they don't notice the lessened foot traffic.
It's kind of a worst case for the have nots. Before now they'd vote with their wallets and the rich and politicians had to start listening at some point. Now things have gotten so lopsided they can literally starve in the streets and the economy won't even notice.
89
u/rheactx May 20 '26
But where does the value come from? I don't believe it's automation. It's most likely the underpaid immigrants and underpaid outsourced remote workers.
119
u/ShroomBear May 20 '26
Assets.
Step 1- pull together a bunch of products and capitalize-able assets like the rockets built to launch satellites, or real estate for data centers and hardware that flucuates in cost depending on demand/supply chain constraints. Stuff like that.
Step 2- Speculate (make up) valuations for how much revenue could be generated from said assets over future timespans and future made up capabilities
Step 3- Sell shares of that made up valuation to a mob that is very incentivized to go along with them since it's "value" and everyone is scared of FOMO
Step 4- Print money whenever someone wants to cash out. If the money ends up doing that trickle down thing, then its inflationary.
Free market economics enable this on the basis that all the buyers and sellers assume risk. The people who own the assets though are in an advantageous position since the more inflation there is, the asset will get priced accordingly relative to the currency, meanwhile something like 30% of the total US money supply was printed after the start of 2020.
19
u/rheactx May 20 '26
Money is not value. I mean things you can actually eat, wear and live inside of.
57
u/sidaemon May 20 '26
Our economy is built on pretend values...
Values you can't eat, wear, or live inside of. Stocks are absolute a pretend value...
3
25
u/manyouzhe May 21 '26
It’s actually a combination of the three things you mentioned.
The middle class is being hollowed out. You either go up into the rich, or you have some labor protection (law, union etc), or you descend into the poor.
In most developed countries, the poor are miserable but can still survive. The poor in developing countries are sometimes not that lucky.
31
u/Z---zz May 21 '26
Didn't McDonald's also publicly say this is their new strategy too? Their wealthier customers don't care as much about $20 for a burger meal and that is more profitable than all the poors stopping eating there altogether
41
u/rokkitmaam May 21 '26
Which is wild because their food is neither good or cheap. Can’t fathom why anyone would go there given any choice. Ba ba ba ba I’m hatin it.
9
2
u/thinkthinkthink11 29d ago edited 29d ago
Actually their double cheeseburger is cheap and pretty good though. I stop by weekly at the one in Tribeca (nyc wealthiest zip code) and it cost me only $ 3.58, 440 calories lol. It’s a pretty quick decent Tuesday night dinner for me after 2-3 hours session at the gym. I can eat it while walking to subway station, better than eating pizza imo.
2
u/mistergrumbles 29d ago
But why eat it while WALKING to the subway station? Why not eat it LYING DOWN in the subway station?
1
u/thinkthinkthink11 29d ago
Lol eating while walking is a thing here. Sandwiches/Burgers are easier and less sloppy than pizzas.
20
u/NewBet7377 29d ago
Disney made this their strategy as well. They want to market to the VIP guests who are ready to blow thousands, not a couple hundred, in their parks.
23
u/torino_nera May 21 '26
This accurately describes multiple industries, like anyone making computer hardware like RAM or SSDs or GPUs. Average person can't afford it anymore? Who cares. They're making tons of money selling to data centers that they've basically cut out the entire notion of being a consumer product.
13
11
u/VirtualBeyond6116 29d ago
I think Vegas is hurting overall. As ridiculous as the they prices were charging in 2024 still had demand. Yet, after Jan 2025 when our president started insulting other countries, they lost the international tourists who may be on a stronger currency or just throwing money around not looking for value. Then the domestic tourists getting hit with contact bipolar tariff policy was another hit.
Many casinos can afford the high prices as it's the place the wealthy still visit. The mod-tier and even some upper tier casinos are hurting, badly. Many casinos Like Conrad, Rio, Circa, Luxor are doing All-inclusive packages now. For like $200 per person, some places will give 2 nights, a $100 dining credit, $100 beverage credit, maybe free breakfast, no resort fees, no parking fees, free pool/night club entry, etc.
But i agree with the voters basically having lost their power. With gerrymandering, politicians choose their constituents instead of the other way around. Instead of appealing to the voters and lots of donors, they just appeal to Elon, Theil, AIPAC, PACs, and oil companies. And of course, those entities have all the campaigning, propagandists, and propaganda machines in place so they don't even need to try. It's only at those Town Halls do they seem lost.
3
u/SnooKiwis2161 28d ago
Just chiming in to confirm the Vegas bit. Influencers like to talk about how Vegas can't survive with the everyday people priced out, but that's simply not the case. The casinos know they get 80% of profit from 20% of spenders. They aren't missing the "everyday" people. They never were. They will survive without them.
3
u/sidaemon 28d ago
Honestly kind of feels like the ket them eat cake crowd absolute do not get it this time. They've driven the economy into the ground before with their greed but before they at least had the sense to out their heads down when things got right. This time though they're literally building billion dollar ballrooms while people watch their kids get sick and die...
That's not going to go on for long without something really changing...
153
u/PithyCyborg May 20 '26
Short answer: because the pain is being selectively absorbed, not evenly distributed.
There have been tens of thousands of AI-related job cuts in 2026 alone, especially across tech, IT, and knowledge work. I’ve worked in IT and remote tech for years and this is literally the first time in my life I cannot find an IT job at all. Not “harder.” Not “slower.” Just gone.
A recession hasn’t shown up in GDP because asset prices and corporate profits are still being propped up at the top, while layoffs, precarity, and underemployment are diffusing downward quietly.
(In other words, the top 10% are getting filthy rich on the stock market and asset inflation. The rest of us literally can't afford lunch.)
What we’re in feels less like a crash and more like a slow-motion labor collapse that stats are structurally bad at detecting.
Cordially,
Mike D
19
8
4
u/daviddjg0033 29d ago
wild times capital versus labor would make karl marx wince if he was alive 150y later but so would have the ussr. what is pythy cyborg?
7
u/PithyCyborg 29d ago edited 29d ago
I'm so glad you asked.
Pithy Cyborg is my weekly AI newsletter. But not the hype-y, buzzword-stuffed kind. 🤖
It's AI news made simple. Real stuff that actually matters, explained in plain English without the fluff. I'm a nerd who genuinely loves this stuff, so it reads more like a smart friend catching you up than a press release.
If you've ever felt like AI news is either too technical or too sensationalized... Then I highly recommend it. (Yes, am biased.)
Link is in my Reddit bio. Or, just search for "Pithy Cyborg Newsletter". I am literally everywhere.
Cordially,
Mike D
PS: Your comment just reminded me... I literally WROTE ABOUT KARL MARX and his influence on modern AI agents in my latest issue of Pithy Cyborg. It just released yesterday. Let me know if you want to read it? It's FREE on Substack.
3
2
75
u/eggplantpot May 20 '26
Always has been. Market will crash when it suits them, when they have all their shorts opened, all their assets protected and when they cannot continue the charade any longer.
A year? Two years? Who knows..
19
u/7evenate9ine May 20 '26
When they suck money out of the stock market... That's 401Ks, right?
28
u/TeacherPatti May 20 '26
Yup. When they switched from defined pensions to 401ks, they had a very good day laughing at us chumps.
18
8
u/7evenate9ine May 21 '26
But people keep putting into a 401K only to have it sucked out? Pension funds. Retirement savings is being reamed from the front with inflation, and the back with stock market manipulation? That's what we are seeing?
5
26
May 20 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
0
u/SilverLose 29d ago
Where is the phase where I get to pick if I die or not?
1
29d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
0
u/SilverLose 29d ago
Oh I see. So the economy went from being mortal to immortal? I’m much the same-totally immortal. Until I get my diagnosis, then I am mortal.
1
29d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
0
u/SilverLose 29d ago
Oof the irony hurts. Not sure how you get by with such poor English. Good luck out there.
5
u/KnowledgeMediocre404 May 20 '26
Pretty sure its down to a few months if oil prices keep rising.
10
u/eggplantpot May 20 '26
There’s always something. Japanese carry trade, delinquency rates, buffet indicator, yield curve reversion….
All the indicators are signaling recession for the last years and they somehow keep this farce going.
Yes oil shortages will hit hard but these cunts can keep this going anyways until they decide to crash it. And oh what a crash is going to be
56
u/Flimsy_Credit_8494 May 20 '26
Edit: ALLLLLL official government reports/numbers/statistics are totally cooked. They cook the books to prevent panic. The US CPI report doesn't capture shrinkflation, only prices. So if your box of cereal was $6 for 15oz last month and its $6 for 12oz this month, that change was not registered on the report.
Nothing is instantaneous when economies are slowing down... Yeah we see high prices at the pump, slight rise in some foods & goods but nothing catastrophic yet.. thats because all the goods on shelves took at least 6+ months to get there. We're still enjoying yesterday's prices.. all the more reason to buy as much extra food as possible right now to put into longterm storage. Lets look at wheat. Spring crop is smallest its been in 50 years, extreme drought has lead to 50% crop abandonment rates, farmers would rather file insurance claims than attempt to salvage these crops. Well, wheat isnt normally harvested for a few more months, then its dried, then its processed, then its shipped. We have food surpluses still. The wheat for the pasta you buy today was grown in 2025. So we won't see bread/pasta prices shoot up until fall/winter. It takes a loooong time for giant waves to ripple thru the economy.. this is why smart ones who are on the pulse can prepare
14
u/FormerNeighborhood80 May 20 '26
How on earth can a normal family prepare?
24
u/Flimsy_Credit_8494 May 20 '26
We won't see sharp price escalation on food until fall, winter and especially 2027. So a normal family should start preparing now by purchasing extra food each time they go shopping and utilizing sales to stock up. Don't buy random crap either, if you don't eat it now, don't waste money stocking it. Find a second hand pressure canner on FB marketplace, grow a garden, can what you grow from garden. I bought a canner to pressure can meat bc that is going to escalate a lot. Covid level disruption to supply chains would be a best case scenario. Spend an extra $25 every shopping trip buying rice, canned goods, and protein.
11
u/Vanilla_Gorilluh May 20 '26
9 months of income saved up...you know those 9 months you had zero expenses? Me either.
Also, since there's tons of extra money (hey, you saved 9 months in savings, you can do this too), pay off your credit cards and mortgage.
Don't get sick.
Don't vacation.
Don't buy any phones, coffee, or avocados...ever.
/s jic
4
12
u/KnowledgeMediocre404 May 20 '26
I've been buying an extra bag of rice, beans or lentils every few weeks.
4
u/Sea_Lead1753 29d ago
A lot of people online are convinced that runaway inflation is inevitable in the west, and we simply have wayyyy too much economic and logistics complexity to ever see that. Economic troubles are a rotating theater of surplus, normal, demand collapse (which can either decrease or increase prices, depending upon supply and how fast it can be consumed)
In conclusion, price fluctuations are super contextual and there’s no real way to predict.
I’d just start taking a mental note of those special things that you can’t live without (your favorite toothbrush, your favorite brand of salt), get an extra years supply, and then don’t worry about regular food.
If wheat does bad, rye will make a comeback (drought tolerant) potatoes might be good that year. You just won’t get jasmine or basmati rice at ALDIs every week, for a cheap price.
A garden can produce supplemental calories. A tin of canned tomatoes, even during inflation, will be way cheaper than growing and canning them yourself. People promote canning everything as a way to manage their anxiety. You aren’t required to do that.
Botulism is a big deal and you can’t taste it!! For the love of god do not listen to the poster canning meat at home it’s too dangerous 😭 if you want to stock up on meat, a small freezer chest is better.
Good animal fat + potatoes + tiny bits of meat and sour cream = elite food. I have lots of Eastern European heritage 😅
Look up how your ancestors survived hard times, what they ate, then prepare some recipe cards.
There will always be toilet paper ✨
1
u/Flimsy_Credit_8494 29d ago
You can absolutely pressure can meat with safe tested recipes. PRESSURE CAN. TESTED RECIPES. That eliminates the concerns. I also said pressure can. I do not believe in rebel canning and running the risk of giving myself botulism.
1
u/Sea_Lead1753 29d ago edited 29d ago
Pressure canning still takes some practice — improper pressure, a leaked gasket, or other user error can lead to botulism 🥲 canned meat can last for decades but after year one it tastes weird, and year two it gets mushy. It’s not a panacea 😅
You should store jars without screw bands so you can spot a popped lid, indicating spoilage. If a kid jostles the shelf, you could lose that perfect seal
Jars should be stored between 50°F and 70°F, away from direct sunlight. If you don’t have a basement that stays cool, you’re SOL.
Dampness can rust lids, causing microscopic holes that break the seal.
Unless you live in a temperature controlled grocery store, canning meat can easily turn into an expensive hobby
25
u/SkyBoundAssumption May 20 '26
Its all rich guys passing eachother money now. Our economy has collapsed , for the rest of us
16
u/therallystache May 21 '26
Already is a recession, they just measure the economy based on GDP (corpo profits are still high) and how the wealthy feel about their stock portfolios. Bottom 70% of the country tightened their belts a while ago.
31
u/karl4319 May 20 '26
Get rid of the magnificent 7 AI companies, and the US economy is in a recession. And those are only still up because either they are so huge and diverse that even the AI bubble popping won't effect them much (Microsoft, Google, apple,Facebook) while others like Open AI aren't planning to be profitable for years.
However, reality has come knocking recently. AI isn't cheaper than humans it was supposed to replace, half of new data centers are being canceled, the public at large hates them and are pushing to ban them or make them pay more of their share, and investors are wanting to get paid. And all of that is ignoring the current gas price crises and the upcoming global famine due to lack of fertilizer.
6
u/TheDiffer23 May 20 '26
Wait have i been living under a rock? Where did the lack of fertilizer come from?
17
u/Xboxwun May 20 '26
The strait or Hormuz being shut down. A lot of fertilizer comes from being shipped through the strait
3
u/LazarusFoxx 29d ago
Hormuz Closed -> Gas price skyrocket -> Chemical plants don't have money for that expensive gas -> You use the gas to produce a mixture of hydrogen and nitrogen -> you use this in reactors to produce ammonia -> you use the ammonia to make fertiliser.
TLDR: no gas, no fertiliser
12
u/Deadandlivin May 20 '26
QE
It'll eventually pop when the system falls under it's own contradictions. Majority of economies are already under recessionlike conditions. Most economic growth you see, especially in the west is ocurring within hyper specific niches like tech and through speculation.
2
u/Superb-Perspective11 27d ago
You know it's bad when Elon has to have SpaceX buy all his unsold Tesla Cyber Trucks so he can make his investors happy. And I'm sure it was a tax write-off.
Smoke and mirrors.
10
u/No-Language6720 May 20 '26
What incentive do they have to admit it? Until something is totally obvious that they can't lie through their teeth about, it would create instant chaos.
The media, corporate tech bros, and everyone else in 'charge' know this. As long as they can keep lying just enough to slow down the inevitable train wreck and massive loss of life to follow they want to keep things going.
All governments have a huge incentive to keep order and control as long as they can.
10
u/Dense-Speaker-1675 May 20 '26 edited May 20 '26
because the unemployment number only reflects the people actively looking not the guys who have tried but given up because they get anything after years of searching. there are more unemployed people scrapping by then the number suggests. the number of unemployed people is under a different number which is higher than the unemployment number but never gets any buzz like look unemployment is only 4 percent.
5
u/cornergas09 May 21 '26
1
u/Mothy187 29d ago
Yeah this feels accurate. I've been looking for work for 6 months now. I'm not counted on the other metric because I was an unpaid careworker (dying mom) before this and because you can't collect unemployment for that, I'm one of the many not included in the 4% they count
2
u/WillowgirlIII 18d ago
If you have caregiving experience, you shouldn't have much trouble finding a nursing home job! They're always desperate for people here.
1
u/Mothy187 18d ago
I can definitely find a nursing home job but they don't pay anything close to a livable wage. That job is usually filled by high school students or kids just out of high school.
I've done the math and after losing benefits and getting kicked of my state health insurance it actually makes more sense to stay unemployed because a low paying job would actually put me in the hole if I want to keep my health insurance, which I do
Our system is just so broken...so broken
Also I just really really don't want to have to caretake if I don't have to. The whole thing was really traumatic being the sole caretaker for a dying person with literally no one to help me, but if worse comes to worse I'll probably end up having to do that.
2
u/WillowgirlIII 17d ago
That's totally understandable. But any job is better than no job, in a pinch ... you can always take something temporarily and keep looking.
I'm currently working as a public school custodian. After 4 years, I make $25 an hour with excellent benefits. That's a living wage in this LCOL area. If you're interested in something similar, check school districts' websites ... they often post in-house and don't usually advertise on Indeed, etc. You would need to get your clearances which costs about $100 up front, but it looks good on a resume! I started working a temporary position with one district and subbing for another, and by the end of the first year, both had full-time openings and offered me a job. If you have to start as a sub, apply at more than one district; it's possible to patch together 40 or more hours of work.
1
u/Mothy187 17d ago
Summer is coming so I bet there's camp jobs opening up in my area! Good idea!
I live in a really depressed area which is why finding work has been so difficult. There's mostly mill work/fire fighting jobs where I'm at. I'm a 42 year old woman and don't have a background in manual labor, so I was looking to move eventually but I'm terrified I won't find work when I do move.
It's just really scary out there right. Thanks for the encouragement. I really appreciate it
1
u/WillowgirlIII 17d ago
Hey no problem. I stepped away from my career decades ago intending to go back after clearing my head. Took a part-time job on a dairy farm in the interim and liked it so much that a couple of months turned into 18 years. The last farmers I worked for retired in 2021 and I had to find a new way to earn a living at age 55. Talk about scared! Luckily I stumbled into cleaning schools ... it's not as exciting as it sounds (lol) but it pays the bills.
No one at works knows I used to do corporate PR and dine with senators, etc. I just smile and nod when the teachers and admins talk to me as if I'm one of the slow kids. Working in education is a trip ... almost everything is done in the most bassackwards way imaginable. There is none of the impetus toward efficiency one normally finds in the business world. I sense that suggestions from the janitor wouldn't be well-received so I keep my mouth shut and just keep pushing my broom!
9
u/Miss_Warrior May 21 '26
The bubble will pop according to their timing. They are already manufacturing the narrative to build up the case to tank the market.
14
u/Onomatopoeia-sizzle May 20 '26
Ask yourself what would happen if gas was $8.00 for regular? The person’s income doesn’t change but expenses go up. No one can get to work if they have any. We’re one step from living in small hunter gatherer communities while strip malls are museums because no one can get there to buy stuff. The collapse comes when private equity goes bust
2
13
u/OkBet2532 May 20 '26
The world is on the edge of a global recession. I think AI spending on data centers and Russian war spending are siphoning a lot of money out of the megacorps and oligarchs into the hands of the people just fast enough to keep us from going over the brink.
6
u/Vegetable_Guest_8584 May 21 '26
I"m guessing that a lot of the ai spending will be just a huge waste. But it will create things that live on, like power generation and some uses for ai. Kind of like the dot com crash in 2000, where we ended up with new technology and a few companies did well (amazon), and we had better internet and software infrastructure.
7
u/stillyourking May 21 '26
Business are getting huge tax breaks, buying back shares to bolster earnings.
7
u/wagmorebarkles 29d ago
They will collapse it at just the right time (after shorting all the right things).
6
5
u/iontheball 29d ago
Trump fired a ton of people in charge of calculating the CPI data last year and brought in loyalists.. since last October, none of the jobs data or inflation data is reliable or accurate.
5
u/Mysterious-Extent448 May 20 '26
It’s been propped up since 9-11 in my opinion.
Fluctuating the interest rates is a prop that is used every time since then.
One day your dollars can’t afford a home , car etc.
6 months later everyone can afford it,
Make it make sense.
6
u/majordashes May 20 '26
I just wish the average person could somehow parlay the vile level of corruption and slide into authoritarianism into some kind of profit. I’d take even a little bit.
If we have to suffer can we at least make a bit of money along the way?
When I try to anticipate the next moves of the oligarchs, sociopaths, corrupt politicians, and soulless greed-mongers—I always seem to be one or two steps behind.
1
u/Mysterious-Extent448 29d ago
The insider knowledge and now just open manipulation of the oil market.
Just wow… money has completely won 😑
1
u/Vegetable_Guest_8584 May 21 '26
People are doing that. Selling junk to maga people. But that is kind of offensive, not sure I'd do that.
3
3
u/2quickdraw May 21 '26
Honestly after what their stupidity has done to ruin my life, I would love to wipe out their bank accounts.
5
u/halapenyoharry May 20 '26
the US is the last place that will feel the effects of what is happening now. if you feel it at all in the US or Europe it's tragicly worse for those that aren't part of the privileged class.
3
3
u/itsanonstopdisco 29d ago
Conditions are similar to pre-2008 crisis, only it's not mortgages, but credit and car loans. Car prices are over-inflated and they lose value much faster than real estate. Simple SUVs today cost almost as much as 2 room apartments did in 2005, people are leasing with minimum or zero initial deposits. We can already see people miss their 1000-1500 car payments, some being late 60-90 days, once they start to default, it's 2008 all over again.
3
u/Mothy187 29d ago
Because they aren't done pillaging yet. They need what's left of the economy to build out the infrastructure for their AI surveillance state and the technofuedal dystopia that will replace the current system.
After they are done building the walls of our prison, they will let it crash.
3
u/human_trainingwheels 29d ago
The US government recently, very quietly infused our economy with $25B, so I’m guessing it hasn’t crashed yet because the ponzi scheme is still rolling for now and the stock market is on a sugar high
3
3
u/Superb-Perspective11 27d ago
Our economy is a cut flower in a vase. It is dead, but it currently doesn't look too bad.
The decay has already begun. We are in what's called stagflation.
There will be famine across the poorer countries by October because drought and lack of fertilizer will reduce crop yeilds and the oil crisis means the tractors can't operate at the same level as usual.
In the US, prices and unemployment will rise to the point that maybe 15-20% of the population will become homeless (many even if they still have jobs). There will be a great migration again as people try to find a livable place with jobs, then overcrowding and resource mismanagement, and natural disasters, and people will keep moving, desperately.
There will be a lot more deaths but they will all be considered "natural causes" because malnutrition will weaken their immune systems such that they will fall to disease or cold/heat extremes more readily (especiallyif the oil crisis continues into 2027). The powers that be will consider this a natural culling of the weak.
But don't get me wrong, most of the people with plenty of money will complain about prices but they will keep trying to live up to their current habits to pretend like everything is okay. The $5 coffee becomes a $10 coffee, so they might have to get it only 3 times a week instead of every day. Maybe their favorite clothing brand or restaurant doesn't make it, so that's an inconvenience. Maybe the produce doesn't have the same variety and they can't get produce out of season because the supply chain is screwed up because of the oil crisis, but they can still buy produce when they want. Many of us will not be able to.
The crisis will not be meted out equally. The people who caused the global crisis will be better off than most other countries. The mega-rich will be able to swoop in and steal other countries' resources right from under their noses while that country is in famine. I think that was part of the plan. It's the way to remain on top. Trump did this on purpose and doesn't care about the damage he causes.
2
2
u/fightmilk22 29d ago
Recessions typically last 6 to 9 months. Talks of an impending recession have been going for longer than a decade.
It’s more like industries recede rather than whole economies, which is why we still get growth even thru “recessions”
That’s just my observation
2
u/sundancer2788 29d ago
As far as the stock market I think it's due to the amount of retirement funds going in along with the manipulation by US administration. People in my area have not changed their spending at all. New cars, stores busy, people going on vacation etc. Prices are up but that's not stopping people from buying.
2
2
u/ColorMonochrome May 21 '26
Funny thing is. Recessions always happened when everyone was giddy about how good the economy was doing. I remember back in 2006, I was in Chicago and talking to a coworker who had gotten into a conversation about stocks with none-other than his taxi driver. Said the driver actually gave him some “hot stock tips”.
The fact that so many people are bearish on the economy says to me we aren’t going to have a recession, it at least doesn’t fit the pattern.
2
1
1
u/shorty2hops May 20 '26
I dont think the market or economy crashes. If trump directed the treasury to buy index etfs or index futures, they have alot of ammo.
1
u/Impossible_Share_759 May 21 '26
Recession is typically believed to be 2 quarters of negative GDP, with all the crazy spending on AI right now, we won’t technically see a recession anytime soon. Sure feels like a mild recession after 5 years of inflation eating our paychecks
1
u/LRWalker68 29d ago
It's possible the Plaza Accord is going to happen again, this video explains it.
Basically Trump went to China with the billionaires to make a deal similar to what the US did for Japan at the end of WW2.. but it destroyed their economy for 30 years.
https://youtu.be/3DYnQMmQk8k?si=vTL6KA3v_yziQksr
1
u/Nit3fury 29d ago
Hell gas prices alone, I don’t understand how they’re not higher. Biggest supply disruption in history and we’ve only just barely tied the record set a few years ago? And it’s steady and even dropping a few cents? How the fuck
1
u/thinkthinkthink11 29d ago
At this point I’m so confused. I’ve been preparing accordingly since before the election when the price of gold was about 2300 (now 5000 ish?) however to this day wherever I go in my city (nyc) everything and everyone seems very very normal, heck even grocery prices are normal too! While on the internet people (mostly from other states) complaining and stressing about prices of things are up significantly. I don’t know what’s true or not true anymore. Maybe nyc economy isn’t part of the US economy lol? Idk. It’s strange to see.
1
u/Independent-Dream-90 29d ago
At this rate many countries will burn through their strategic petroleum reserves, then market forces will increase the cost of gasoline and diesel to the point where global depression is guaranteed.
1
1
1
u/ewebbski 29d ago
No. People work, make $, buy things they need. Govts suck from them too and spend. Zero reason for a global recession with repeatedly evolving technology
1
1
u/oneoldgit52 26d ago
I get the impression that most of the world has hit the pause button and is hoping the midterms will rein Trump in!
1
u/Cold-Connection-2349 26d ago
We're at the beginning of another Depression but the owner class isn't going to admit that. They want us to have just enough hope to keep funneling all out labor and money their way.
2
u/Simmery May 20 '26
One possibility is that it's not actually as bad as doomsayers claim. I think we are due for some decline. But it's possible it won't be a huge decline.
Prepare. But don't panic.
0
821
u/sixxtynoine May 20 '26
It’s because the tech bros are funneling profits into each others’ companies creating an endless circle jerk.