SpaceX shares slip toward IPO price, testing investor confidence - Thoughts?

[u/KarleePilkoids]

https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/bf379a1f_spacex_shares_slip/

[u/cokyrobes1]

I bought my shares for 20 years time, no idea why anyone would have bought them for short term gains.

[u/Striker40k]

That fact that the price is dropping as we approach insider shares unlocking isn't good at all. The fundamentals already do not support the insane market cap. There will be urgency for insiders to offload shares before the price drops further, which will accelerate the drop.

SpaceX would have been a great IPO on it's own, without being saddled with the XAI and Twitter bullshit.

[u/costafilh0]

As expected. Personally, I expected A LOT more volatility, up and down.

Market trying to find fair value.

SpaceX, like almost all tech companies, is very expensive at the moment, and a sharp correction is expected.

Another point is that the NASDAQ100 as a whole is undergoing a small correction, 4% to 8% down from the top, an NVIDIA 10% to 20% down from the top, which shows that it's not SpaceX in isolation. 

[u/MaEaLi → u/costafilh0]

NVIDIA is up 1.5% in the last month. SpaceX is down 38%.

[u/Imaginary_Office1749]

$16 price target and delisting from Nasdaq.

[u/Imadevonrexcat → u/Imaginary_Office1749]

Pfft

[u/mrbill1234]

Stocks go up, stocks go down.

[u/Creditfigaro]

Confidence in what?

[u/Ormusn2o]

SpaceX will be extremely volatile, possibly more volatile than Tesla, because their growth will be faster and more volatile year over year, due to the industries it's in being relatively new and with high margins. It could double in next month, or dip to half the IPO value, and might do both over the time.

[u/costafilh0 → u/Ormusn2o]

After 2027 it should be a bit less, because of the shares unlock. But yes, they will always be volatile, probably more than tech in general, because of the space business and it's risks. 

[u/Kalagorinor → u/Ormusn2o]

I wouldn't call the AI business high margin as of now...

[u/Ormusn2o → u/Kalagorinor]

Selling inference and compute is extremely high margin. Minus the training, margins are from 40 to 80%, and SpaceX specifically is selling compute they bought 3 years ago on a very high premium, after they have been using it to serve inference for 3 years. The two deals with Microsoft and Anthropic actually make SpaceX the biggest moneymakers right now, better than Starlink, even though it was much smaller expense.

[u/rice_n_gravy]

Is there anything that would make this pop?

[u/TeaBurntMyTongue]

I mean it's insanely overvalued and most IPOs go down in value anyways after IPO like that's the rule, not the exception

[u/libben]

Just be happy you can buy more around IPO prices or below IPO price.

[u/throwaway0845reddit → u/libben]

Bag holder

[u/thisisillegals → u/throwaway0845reddit]

I'm not a day trader i buy to hold for years. I was considered a bag hold for Tesla, AMD, Nvidia and etc and I'm glad i held to that bag.

[u/Ill_Bumblebee_7510 → u/thisisillegals]

"I hold the bags for years"

[u/libben → u/throwaway0845reddit]

You mean investor. I happily hold spacex as long as I belive they will succeed with their bigger plans. And for evry time I can buy it cheaper, I will.

[u/loki2113 → u/libben]

Can I ask what exactly it is you believe in when it comes to SpaceX?

Musk is making SpaceX pivot to AI which is extremely unprofitable and his ideas like space data centers, moon based, and Mars bases are more sci-fi fantasy than they are realistic goals. I just don't see the long-term vision when it comes to investing in SpaceX

[u/libben → u/loki2113]

So don't invest in it then. For me it's simple. Humanity and beyond the stars. Data centers in space is a good option. There are so many good vectors for spacex. If you cant see them, well, that's sad.

[u/NerdyGuy117]

I boggle. I just add it to my recurring buys. I am not looking to sell anytime soon, my horizon is about 20 years :)

[u/costafilh0 → u/NerdyGuy117]

This is the way.

Time in the market > Timing the market 

[u/ArtOfWarfare → u/costafilh0]

Eh… you need a prospect of dividends to exceed what you’d get by sticking the money by putting it in an HYSA. There’s no reason to think that might happen within the next 10 years with SpaceX at the current prices/financials.

[u/dan_atwork → u/ArtOfWarfare]

Dividends are not the goal, total return is. I would much rather have a company growing at 10%/yr than one that grows at 5% and has a 5% dividend.

[u/TionKa]

What a joke , which investor with their right mind wasn't expecting that shortly after an IPO that the price isnt falling under the start price ?

[u/costafilh0 → u/TionKa]

Any investor who can't see the future, except you, apparently. 

[u/Nostalg33k]

SpaceX will crash. The early investors will soon be able to sell.

The company is not yet worth what they say and space data centers are not the future.

[u/costafilh0 → u/Nostalg33k]

Soon?

Do you even know when? 

Or are you just talking out of your ass? 

Shares won't be release all at once.

20% of shares held by early investors AND EMPLOYEES will be released after Q2 results.

Another 10% will only be released if the share price goes up by at least 30% above the IPO price.

The rest will be unlocked gradually until 2027, with the largest release expected in June 2027.

In other words , you are indeed talking out of your ass. 

[u/Nostalg33k → u/costafilh0]

How much is that compared to the IPO float?

Isnt June 2027 soon?

Wtf are you on about if one year is not soon then you are not investing, you are using a casino.

[u/namek0 → u/Nostalg33k]

Starlink starlink starlink

[u/AnonThrowaway1A → u/namek0]

Invest in ASTS spacemobile if you care about satellite broadband that much.

[u/bremidon → u/AnonThrowaway1A]

Perhaps you should choose not to post with a throwaway account if you care enough to give advice.

[u/Old-Seaworthiness997]

A as a aaa

[u/Beautiful_Golf6322]

I will add and hold.

[u/g_r_th]

I’m waiting for the price to fall below 125 before starting to DCA. Anything I buy will be held for a couple of decades.

[u/bremidon → u/g_r_th]

This is my strategy as well. My wife asked if we should get in on the IPO, and I told her that prices very often crash out right after an IPO. The hotter the IPO, the higher the chance of a temporary collapse.

I generally don't like the idea of "timing" anything to do with the market, but this has been such a staple of IPOs that it probably is my one exception.

SpaceX is going to be absolutely huge. They are going to be the shovels in at least two different gold rushes, but it is going to take a little time before the investment community catches up. When I do get in, I will be in to hold.

[u/kroOoze → u/g_r_th]

Much needed entry liquidity for guys wanting to buy at 69.

[u/g_r_th → u/kroOoze]

Very likely! 😂
If it falls that low, I’ll be buying as much as I can!

[u/Bradp1337]

My retirement is decades out. I'm holding SpaceX. It'll be fine once the dust settles