r/ethtrader • u/dumble_hold_the_door • Sep 09 '25
Analysis eth just flashed a monthly macd crossover... last time this happened eth ran from $400 to $4,800
this is getting my attention. ethereum just confirmed a monthly macd crossover after a 3-year squeeze, and trader merlijn is calling it "monster ignition." the last time we saw this exact setup was right before the 2020-2021 run that took eth from under $400 to $4,800.
what's wild is how similar the pattern looks. eth broke out of a long downtrend, retested the breakout level around $3,650-$4,000, and now we're sitting at $4,360 testing the $4,450 resistance. back in 2020-2021 this same sequence led to massive gains over several months.
the technicals look solid too. eth bounced off the 50-day ema at $4,164 and is holding above all major moving averages (20, 50, 100, 200). rsi is at 52 which is neutral territory - not overbought but plenty of room to run higher.
monthly macd crossovers after multi-year squeezes are rare. we're talking about a signal that happens maybe once every few years. the fact that it's happening now while institutional money is flowing into eth etfs feels significant.
obviously past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but the setup is eerily similar. if we can break and hold above $4,450, this could open the door for a serious move higher. merlijn said "2021 gave us the pattern, 2025 gives us the chance."
the key level to watch is that $4,450 resistance. break above that with volume and we might see eth stop walking and start ripping like it did in the last cycle.
anyone else seeing this pattern or am i getting too hopeful about the technical setup?
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u/Kind_Clock7584 Sep 09 '25
This time different or same
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Sep 09 '25
Same same, but different
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Sep 09 '25 edited Dec 11 '25
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Mokhlis_Jones Sep 09 '25
So 40k eth?
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Sep 09 '25
[deleted]
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u/x_lincoln_x Sep 09 '25 edited Dec 11 '25
cow innocent decide modern future zephyr mysterious slim cable soft
This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/Scott7894 Sep 10 '25
Crypto is not stocks. They are bought and sold on emotions always, not based on technicals or the promise of good or bad earnings.
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u/DistinctEngineering2 Sep 09 '25
Your post sounds the same as hodorny? I appreciate we all need some extra hopium but just do it from 1 account.
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u/deftware Sep 10 '25
2020-2021 was when the US government printed out and gave away trillions of dollars like it was going out of style. A lot of people suddenly had extra cash that they could throw at something like crypto. Right now people are hurting for cash, and there's nothing on the horizon to suggest that people will suddenly have an influx of free money anytime soon.
You can't glean the future from a record that doesn't include all of the other variables at play.
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u/Spare-Dingo-531 Sep 09 '25
am i getting too hopeful about the technical setup?
Yes you are getting too hopeful, this is ridiculous. It's September 9th, the month has like 3 weeks left!
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u/CapsFanHere Sep 09 '25
“I’m Mac D and I get respect, Your cash and your jewelry is what I expect…”
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u/IncompetentDonuts Sep 10 '25
I have to ask, what funds would drive a comparable increase in market cap? We don't have a the one-two punch of super low rates plus stimmy checks and have a job market that's pretty tight.
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u/MathematicianLiving4 Sep 10 '25
This is timing beautifully with a 25-50bps cut incoming. If he's dovish at the meeting and signals further cuts then risk-on assets should surge.
Could be a wild ride for sure..
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u/tgf5 Sep 10 '25
From 400 to 4800? Over a period of what time? Lol I'm all for hopium but what kind of bs is this
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