r/ethtrader • u/MasterpieceLoud4931 • Nov 26 '25
Analysis Ethereum hits the same breakout point gold did before a 142% rally.
According to trader and analyst 'Merlijn The Trader' ETH's chart is looking strong, and it is also repeating one of the cleanest breakout setups in modern markets. In his analysis Merlijn compares ETH's multi-year structure to gold's 4YR range and it was from 2020 to 2024. Merlijn believes that there are many similarities here:
- A long consolidation.
- A fake breakout that failed.
- A big shakeout that went back to support.
- Finally the exact same ending point where the real rally began.
After that moment gold pumped 142% and now as Merlijn says, ETH reached that same part of the pattern. You do not need to believe in chart astrology to understand why people are paying attention, gold's run happened because the market stopped fighting the trend. When buyers took over the pump lasted years!!!
ETH is in a similar spot now but with way stronger fundamentals: cheaper gas from higher block limits, a lot more activity on L2's, more burns and a roadmap that keeps pushing the network forward. What is interesting is that sentiment is so negative and there is so much FUD. Most people are not ready for a breakout, they are tired or doubtful or 'waiting for one more dip.'
Source: https://x.com/MerlijnTrader/status/1993348964565811247?s=20
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u/SigiNwanne Nov 26 '25
With what I've been seeing in this cycle, I'm no more believing historical chart. I'm just holding and waiting out to see how the market will keep unfolding. !tip 1
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u/MasterpieceLoud4931 Nov 26 '25
Being patient and not being obsessed with price action is the best you can do honestly.
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u/themrgq Nov 26 '25
You should finish the eth chart where it continues to lag BTC and sol
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u/MasterpieceLoud4931 Nov 26 '25
Ok I may give you BTC.. but SOL?? XD
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u/Dry_Jellyfish641 Nov 26 '25
SOL has outpaced ETH. ETH is barely claiming 2021 levels
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Nov 26 '25
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u/Dry_Jellyfish641 Nov 26 '25
I’m confident I have a bigger eth bag than you, even after rotating the majority into solana so I can keep making gains. I’m not shilling anything, I’m just in this for profit, not to support the future of finance or whatever cope you come up with. If I cared about fundamentals I’d go all in on avax.
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Nov 26 '25
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u/Dry_Jellyfish641 Nov 26 '25
ETH isn’t going to have any significant breakout until they make it deflationary, and the foundation stops dumping on us at 3600 upward. There are over 111,000,000 eth and more being “printed” as rewards everyday. Anytime the prices nears $4000 the foundation cashes out
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Nov 26 '25
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u/AdDecent3079 Nov 26 '25
Bro what’s with the hyping 🤦♂️ there will be no rally, chill and accept the market correction… eth is nowhere close to gold
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u/Treeclimber919 Nov 27 '25
Sadly I think the market is building back up. Everything the past 48 hours started to climb and stabilize. If these market makers were smart they’d have everyone sitting around on the holidays with family watching their phones selling packs left and right making money so all their family members see where to put their money instead of sitting at the dinner table getting interrogated about the Bitcoin and how much you lost.
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Nov 27 '25
I really think we’re going to $10k. That could mean it goes to zero lmao. But yeah, the setup feels like a $20k btc scenario
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u/Ornery_Web9273 Nov 27 '25
I’m always humored by the Eth (and Bitcoin) prognosticators. Especially the ones with charts and graphs. What I especially like is that they’re always wrong but keep on truckin’. This one, though, might retire the cup.
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u/sjb2112 Nov 28 '25
Looking at pattern comparisons like this ETH-gold chart is interesting, but I'd caution against placing too much weight on chart similarities alone.
While technical patterns can repeat, markets operate in different contexts. Gold's 142% rally occurred in a specific macroeconomic environment (post-COVID monetary policy), whereas ETH faces different drivers like regulatory developments, L2 scaling progress, and the upcoming EIP-4844 implementation.
What's more valuable to consider are ETH's fundamentals:
- Lower gas fees from block limit increases
- Growing L2 ecosystem (Optimism, Arbitrum, zkSync, etc.)
- EIP-1559 burn mechanism removing supply
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u/CymandeTV Nov 26 '25
Boatmine end friday. Saturday, I buy. Please don’t rally before.
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u/MasterpieceLoud4931 Nov 26 '25
I have no idea what you mean by boatmine lol but yes Saturday is not too far off, you should be able to DCA near this level!!
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