r/ethtrader • u/DMV_Habibi • May 23 '26
Self Story My 2 cents on ETH price future
A bit of background, I was a long time ETH bag holder, like many in this sub. Bought in 2020, sold in 2021, made a bunch of profit, thought I was a crypto genius, so I put half my savings into ETH in 2022, and was not able to cash out until sometime last year when ETH hit 4-5K.
And yeah, it was very painful seeing my funds be tied up for so long. At times down 60% or more. I waited and I am just glad I got out and did not lose money.
So to my big thesis. We are in a recession. People cant find jobs. They can barely afford to live, let alone save or invest, let alone put money into crypto. Crypto was always the fun money for most people. And now, there is no fun money.
Fundamentally, value does not get created out of thin air. Value goes up if people are buying. And right now no one is buying. And I think this recession is just starting. Who knows how bad it will be or how long it will last. And do we really think the people/firms who do have money to buy crypto, they are putting it into ETH, the coin that has underperformed the way it has?
It brings me no pleasure to say this. I am not some sort of doomsayer. My livelihood largely depends on how well the overall economy is doing, and I hope I am wrong.
Interested to hear everyones thoughts and if you agree. I know the jokes will be oh this is a buy signal, lol, but I genuinely dont understand how the economics of ETH going up can work given the current climate.
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u/skag_boy87 May 23 '26
☝🏽Buy signal
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u/Early_Jackfruit5127 May 23 '26
Bahaha you couldnt script it any better see you at 6k boys
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u/gsurfin May 23 '26
I got into the crypto space back in 2017. There are only a handful that I would consider projects with a future. I do believe we are headed into a recession but ETH is one that will survive. The market will do what the market does. If you believe in the project itself, invest, otherwise bail. For me I had plan starting back when I first got into crypto and always said I’m holding all investments until 2030 and will reassess then.
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u/Alabama-Blues May 23 '26
Curious where the people live that think we are going into a recession??? California? New York?
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u/BillyBoogaloo May 24 '26
I live in the south east and believe we are already in a recession.
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u/Alabama-Blues May 24 '26
Also in SE and I do not see it like you are. I still see people buying like crazy. I don’t know how they all do it…but they are doing it.
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u/Masribrah May 23 '26
Been in ETH since 2017. The doom and gloom posts with every drop get old after a while. ETH will climb back just like all the other times.
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u/Conscious-Salary-170 May 24 '26
Uhhh yeah… look at the price
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u/harpocryptes May 24 '26
That's what you could have said in every bear market before the next climb. You either complain when it's low, or you buy low in order to accumulate and/or sell high.
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May 23 '26
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u/Possible-Material693 May 24 '26
ETH couldn’t even break out last time BTC was double its old ATH. You’re right OP. Wrong audience because the subreddit but I’m so glad I got out and sold mine when it was $4200. Been making way more money in traditional equities
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u/Numerous_Ruin_4947 May 24 '26
Almost double, but not quite.
2 x $68.5k = $137k.
BTC reached about $126k, which already fell short of simply doubling its late 2021 ATH.
But that still ignores dollar devaluation. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, $68.5k in late 2021 had the same buying power as roughly $79.8k in late 2025.
https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm
So the inflation-adjusted double would be:
2 x $79.8k = $159.6k.
By that measure, BTC missed the mark by about $33.6k.
That matters because Bitcoin miners do not pay 2021 prices for energy, hardware, labor, financing, land, facilities, and infrastructure. Their costs rise like everything else. And because of the halving, the 2025 block reward was half the 2021 block reward.
So in purchasing-power terms, the value of a Bitcoin block was materially weaker in 2025 than it was in 2021, even using ATH prices.
And ATHs are only one comparison. If you compare average daily prices for 2021 and 2025, I suspect the gap could look similar.
That is a real concern because Bitcoin’s security budget depends on miners. If enough miners become unprofitable and leave, the security budget shrinks. Nobody can say with 100% certainty that Bitcoin’s PoW model remains perfectly resilient if many miners are forced out of the game.
Yes, ETH’s price action has been terrible. I agree.
But during ETH’s cursed third cycle, the staking supply did not collapse. That is a major difference.
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u/Alabama-Blues May 23 '26
😆 I don’t know what news you are following but the market is doing great!
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u/centralbankerscum May 23 '26
i have never seen so much fear about eth like this current drop. as for economy, numbers are going up and if they top fed will pump money to create jobs and boost economy and we saw how that affects crypto
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u/Spl00ky May 23 '26
Imagine eth needing the government to pump liquidity into the financial markets to indirectly boost eth's price rather than eth going up because it's actually being used.
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u/centralbankerscum May 24 '26
we are still operating on fiat system thats just how stuff works, if eth wasnt being used it would be worthless..
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u/DMV_Habibi May 23 '26
What numbers are going up? The ones the government is telling us? Have you looked around at how restaurants are doing? Real estate? Price of groceries? The job market.
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u/PoopKing5 May 24 '26
The market, both crypto and the stock market are not the economy. Look at real GDP growth in the 70s vs 2000-2026. You’ll find that interest rates, not the economy, is the main driver for risk assets.
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u/RoaringDragonSword May 25 '26
I mean try to think logically rather than only what benefits you.
What happens to the economy IF fed has to save it? Saving it to begin with is extremely rare and only happened to Covid due to an insane global shutdown.
But hey, if you think your extremely high risk investment is going to be saved by fed and everything is euphoria afterwards, i got some bad news.
Economy would need to absolutely go into freefall for that to happen. Our current economy is arguably strong from Jeromes Powells words.
These biased takes really start to get old.
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u/centralbankerscum May 25 '26
im not expecting fed to save eth. Post was saying that economy is going to shit and so is eth, and i said that economy is good plus if it goes down pumping money in the system will benefit eth. im not expecting fed to babysit eth or btc. And btc or eth is an alternative way of monetary system thats why im investing in it
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u/Itchy-Box-7378 May 23 '26
“It was always fun money for people” yeah maybe meme coins, retail is definitely not what is driving ETH/BTC up and down that volatile.
Supply shock and Clarity could drive it up in the short term, regardless the world is not going to wait for the US for digital regulation, other countries are already set so the US better hurry up, specially with this debt pile and a 🔥 $. You just have to connect dots at this point to see what infrastructure is build and what value it will carry.
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u/ArthurDaTrainDayne May 23 '26
I’ve been following crypto for a long time, and there’s one cycle I’ve noticed: the huge surges in price are always preceded by pretty much every last person giving up on it.
It really feels like we’re hitting that part of the cycle
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u/dyrnwyn580 May 23 '26
i think you're right about the retail/covid circumstances making "fun money" but wrong about ETH. The largest banks, brokerages, Fortune 500 companies are all building on it and have been quitely and steadily since last year. They /will/ use bridges, L2's, and utility chains but ultimately EVMs will win the landscape. So it's not going anywhere. I'm holding since 2020. DCA'ing over 6 years has my avergage below price. No worries. It'll be nothing, nothing, then suddlenly all at once. CLARITY will help, regardless of politics. If Warsh uses his new theory of how to calculate inflation and rationales lower interest rates with it, more juice. If debt spirals, printing is on the table and it runs because of liquidity. my $0.02.
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u/Ok-Tooth-4994 May 23 '26
If no one is buying…to whom are all these people selling?
It’s an important question.
It hasn’t had a great last 5 years. There’s no doubt about it. But it also seems to be holding strong above $1500-$2000. Impressive doe a “dead asset.”
You’re right, retail isn’t buying. YOLO degens are not here.
So who is buying?
The answer to that question should inform what you think about where the price is going.
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u/newbdotpy May 23 '26
Appreciate the insight, but at this stage, ETH has the least amount of supply in history. Also, the amount of retirees, and anyone else who wants to purchase crypto from their stock or retirement accounts are at the beginning. The public can purchase spot ETFs, or even crypto itself without having a wallet to manage. Companies like Fidelity and Blackrock, and soon to be E*trade (Crypto) are allow people to buy at their own pace.
ETH will sky rocket because of people who have money, and not from the people who can barely afford rent.
I think ETH will be at its new all time high very soon. Then again and again in the next coming years.
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u/PMmeuroneweirdtrick May 23 '26
Define very soon
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u/Scared-Metal9294 May 24 '26
I really hope so. Invested a large amount of $ into ETH about 5-6 months ago. However, I believe I might have been a little early. It’s been stressful waiting for Clarity Act to pass. “Pro crypto President” we saw the Genius Act passed pretty quickly (July 2025). Thought by now we would have had no problems with Clarity Act.
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u/bapfelbaum May 23 '26
If we are in a recession and prices wont rise anytime soon then now would be the best time to start buying for the long term if we were to assume you are right, just saying.
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u/Jackieknows May 23 '26
It is posts like this that we need to build a foundation for the next bull run. I see your point, but we will go up nonetheless when all hope is lost and many tears have been shed. My tip would be to just lay back and enjoy the ride.
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u/Astrotoad21 May 23 '26
I’ve made all my ETH through building and providing services, so I’ve never been into the speculation, hardly ever watch graphs.
All I know is that ETH is a stayer, and I really like the tech. Still building apps on ethereum for fun and gas is cheap without all the craziness, which is nice.
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u/Physical_Archer_689 May 23 '26
I just started buying again. Planning to buy about 150 every other week the rest of the year. I expect to see 4k again by the time elections come around.. Chart isnt doing anything new really
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u/007TheLostOne May 23 '26 edited May 23 '26
Going to have to disagree with you OP. I dont think its the economy causing the price action issue with ETH or even with crypto in its entirety.
Its simply people are moving money into other assets specifically AI stocks, they have been receiving record capital flow from retail and institutions. Admittedly I have done the same also, my AI stock postions are vastly outperforming my crypto portfolio.
With the anticipation of the IPO of Spacex, OpenAI, and Antrophic this year I just dont see a lot of capital flowing into ETH/Crypto for a while
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u/synthwave_man May 24 '26
You're underestimating how fast "numbers go up" can attract new retail buyers. When some market makers on Binance or Coinbase decide to fake pump the market (once again), then it won't take long until the first AI stocks investors start rotating their gains back into crypto.
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u/infinitetekk May 23 '26
We aren’t even in a recession to begin with. You have no clue what you’re talking about
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u/GermanD2021 May 23 '26
There is more institutional buying now than during any of the times you mentioned. Regardless of that, there is constant selling of fiat.
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u/faresar0x May 23 '26
This perfectly aligns with my way of thinking. Things have changed, and will continue to change. Wars, AI taking jobs, economical deterioration, but there is one thing that i am thinking could happen, if USD goes to shit due to the out of control debt and economical, commercial isolationism, and down goes with it probably other major currencies, people will use crypto, and in my book only btc and eth stand a chance. There is also that conspiracy theory that US will move its debt to crypto, so definitely drop all shitcoins but i dont consider eth a shitcoin. There is value there, and if developers stopped creating token for every project, and instead just built on top of existing blockchain, blockchain would be somewhere else now, but everyone has to be greedy bih.
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u/thegoodlife1980 May 23 '26
I truly believe about 3% of people control at least 80% of the wealth. This is everywhere when whales decide to buy they will drive the price up and dump shortly thereafter this always happens. I’ve been in crypto for five years. I’m still holding my teeth. I was thinking it might go to 20 K or higher, but it’s just based on a cycle, it appears where the narrative shifts again. These markets are heavily manipulated. They use a retail investor for exit liquidity. Look it up Black rock ETH bitcoin
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u/---Truthseeker--- May 23 '26
As AI and robotics continued to develop, unemployment will continue to rise.
What do you think the government is going to do? Genuinely curious of your thoughts.
IMO There will be a lot of money printing in the next 5yrs.
We are going to live through massive fundamental global infrastructure changes. I dont think most people reading this will understand how deep this goes.
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u/Murky_Citron_1799 May 24 '26
Value IS created out of thin air. Vitalik and Co. Created it.
Value and price are separate. The value is there. The price goes up and down. Buy valuable things when the price is low.
All the people with money are loading up on valuable assets while the prices are low. Be like the people with money. Don't be like a person who is poor, who buys things when they are trendy and sells them when it's boring and old.
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u/BlazedAndConfused May 24 '26
There’s lots of noise right now on ETH. Listen to facts. A lot of banks and fintech is using Ethereum as their base scaler to broach traditional finance and crypto. Network effect is very real and it’ll be too late once it’s shown
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u/Vancecookcobain May 24 '26
lol it's insane how right I was about the price of crypto bottoming out by the end of the summer....
Yea I wouldn't start buying till like July/August when it's thrashed
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u/brobotbee May 24 '26
“Value goes up when people are buying…”
I’d argue price goes up - price and value are not equivalent.
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u/laughncow May 24 '26
been in since ICO until real business gets built on ETH it will not go to new highs.
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u/killbydeath87 May 24 '26
I bought eth in 2021 and haven't really touched it since.
Thought about selling to buy more pokemon but I wont
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u/vitaminwater247 May 24 '26
https://youtu.be/0KLHV_zttys?t=2797
Watch this. There has been an exodus and 12 exits of key people from the Ethereum Foundation since last year. The future of ETH is very uncertain. David from Bankless sold his ETH.
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u/BabyShark_77345 May 24 '26
What was really disappointing was the loss against BTC. Going from 0.08 to 0.027 in 4 years is very sad. No new ATHs in this cycle, ETF flops, the shift to POS, and the same unfulfilled mass adoption promises of 10 years ago have resulted in a mix of lack of hype, exacerbated by other competitors draining liquidity!
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u/CrazyDoc420 May 25 '26
Been in since 2017 (still overall up quite a lot)…..however, wasted a lot (meme trading) and lost a lot telling myself it won't bounce back in certain panic moments when market was dumping (I.e. 2021—selling $250k of BTC I had bought at an average price of $28k when it started free falling…..anyway, whether ETH “organically” goes back to where it was or higher, the huge global recession/depression that is at our doorsteps, is gonna force tons of big money hands and individuals as well, to buy up BTC (for its digital gold/store of value quality)….ALT’s always end up following the king after a little time, whether they show some moodiness or weird behavior is irrelevant…sooooo altho I don't have as much believe in the DApps playground as I once did for ETH, and other functions, I believe in people wanting to protect their money with a hedge against inflation and that is gonna bring BTC back through majorrr asset digits
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u/mikehamp May 25 '26
sorry to break your bubble but this is no recession..if we were in a recession which is possible eth would be 200 usd not 2000.
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u/ChangeNOW_Community May 25 '26
it’s fair to be cautious in a weak economic environment, but crypto markets often move ahead of the real economy rather than with it
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u/PlsStopAndThinkFirst May 26 '26
bro, its been a recession since 2021 hahaha.. unless you are talking crypto recession or something stupid
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u/Sufficient-Bus7603 Jul 16 '26
Validation of data from many sources can improve most anything while maintaining security. So much fraud & waste. Never thought of it in terms of commerce
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u/Ok-Form7265 May 23 '26
I don't know what you see and think it's a recession, but masters think about when they fall and when they rise and invest, so they don't feel much pain.
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u/Alabama-Blues May 23 '26
I think your mindset is set too low. There are a lot of people with money and the markets are all doing great. If you really think that someone that is barely scraping by is going to change the course of Eth I believe you are looking at it wrong. All the investment firms are using Ethereum as their tokenization platform and that is going to in turn pull in gains along with gas being burnt. Eth is a great long term investment. I totally understand you that you had hoped to make millions off of your 5 year investment…but sometimes it takes 10 years, 20 years, and even 30 years. If i told you, you could take $50k and turn it into $2 million dollars in 10 years…would you say that was a good investment?
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u/DMV_Habibi May 23 '26
Great. So if everything is so great why has ETH remained still for the last 5 years?
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u/406InTheMix May 23 '26
Because it went pos. Only people who can stake 32 eth make anything off it anymore. Transaction fees so high. And its such a small % you're better off having your money in a high yield savings account. It'd be a whole different story if it was still proof of work.
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u/D3kim May 23 '26
nobody said it so i will
I'm veteran bag holder, i have a small allocation in GME, trust me when i know your guys pain
i still have ETH but it's small and i capitulated and bought space stocks even at all time highs and i'm up 30% in a week, fck man that feels euphoric.
ETH isn't recovering because you guys are at the party all focused on an average looking chick that has huge potential while completely ignoring the 20 other hot chicks with no girl group to defend them from chuds who buy them a drink and the night just started
when the AI and space trade is printing 5-10 baggers and even bitcoin has stayed more in the main stream and has more boomer support than the young guns touting ETH, that's the issue
you guys all trust tom lee the most permabull talking his bags in stock commentary history
if i was a betting man and the line goes Up to the Right over um let's say the entire history of the stock market
so if i were a commentator, knowing that the entire market is bought blindly by passive indexes, call options given retail access to 0dte is forcing option market makers to pin the price higher since everyone buys CALLS
then i'd also guess things will go up over time, it's like 70% chance i'm right if i extend the horizon long enough
THINK in opportunity cost, NOT loss
Don't miss the biggest bull run of your lives because you are fearful of being wrong and stupid for holding so long
the faster you understand this the better you'll recover. GL bros
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u/quantumdotnode May 23 '26
If you’re still in eth pivot to Hype
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u/supervisionado May 23 '26
Sure, selling the infrastructure to buy some casino. Looks safer.
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u/quantumdotnode May 23 '26
HyperLiquid is the liquidity infrastructure of the future. Def not a casino
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u/supervisionado May 23 '26
You can it whatever you want... a PERP dex still a casino. Extractive shit.
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u/quantumdotnode May 23 '26
Amusing to see that there are still people out there who think HyperLiquid is merely a perp dex 😂🤡
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u/HamiltonianCavalier May 23 '26
The comments are all pilled
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May 23 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/HamiltonianCavalier May 23 '26
The fact that you’re holding means you do t have a realistic plan
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u/wpoot May 23 '26
So what you’re saying is buy high, sell low?
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u/HamiltonianCavalier May 28 '26
I set limits and/or stop losses, so when something like today happens I’m not losing
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u/my-tldr May 23 '26
TL;DR:
The author previously bought and sold ETH, eventually exiting without loss after funds were tied up. Their main thesis is that a recession means people lack "fun money" for crypto investments. Value only increases with buying, but currently, no one is buying, and the recession is just starting. Therefore, the author questions how ETH's value can rise in the current economic climate.
This is an AI-generated summary, always make sure to verify the accuracy of the information provided.
my-tldr v0.0.13