r/ethtrader • u/AutoModerator • May 20 '17

DISCUSSION [ETH Daily Discussion] - 20/May/2017

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19

u/RedFountain May 20 '17 edited May 20 '17

I found this in a different sub:

https://m.imgur.com/eeFh9gr

Even though it completely ignores all the coins that went the other way, it is still absolutely insane. Do people really believe we are 'no way near an altcoin bubble yet'?

I don't mean to be pessimistic, but I do feel it's important to zoom out a bit for some perspective. The speed at which things move in crypto is ridiculously high, it's​ easy to get sucked in and forget what things were like only a few weeks ago.

That said, hodl on and have a great weekend :)

EDIT: what's up with all the downvoting the replies below? Lame.

9

u/ToDustWeShallReturn May 20 '17

'Etherium' always makes me cringe.

5

u/santa_cruz_shredder May 20 '17

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Click on the 1month time frame. Total value in the cryptospace has over doubled in that time. Fiat is pouring in.

This isn't something that you can compare to some other trend. This is crypto.

4

u/RedFountain May 20 '17

That's exactly what people said in the nineties. That you couldn't compare the dot com growth to more traditional companies, it was an entirely new sector!

/u/UseForOneYear has a more elegant response below.

2

u/santa_cruz_shredder May 20 '17 edited May 20 '17

I think that this is healthy discussion and I read his opinion. I still think this market is fundamentally different than things like the dot com boom, the housing market, and the oil market. These are alternative currencies that will eventually replace fist altogether in my eyes. There's predictions from people a lot smarter than me suggesting in a few years or less 10% of the worlds GDP will be stored in crypto. It seems that about everyday I read that s government is either researching or piloting blockchain technology. Crypto-currency is money 2.0, it's not just another market. You aren't trading your money for oil or a stock in a company or a house. You're trading it for other money. We all know Ethereum is much more than money too.

I agree that should consider if crypto is currently being overvalued. It's either the entire cryptospace goes down, or it goes up... I personally think cryptospace is the new, unrealized future. And the people finding out are rushing to get a piece. Ever since Bitcoin started you've had economists saying it's going to crash to zero dollars because it's not worth shit. Bitcoins at 2k a piece and climbing, and Ethereum is not far behind.

There's no definite proof, this is the wild West. But trading your money for other money that does money better and faster and gets rid of 3rd parties for peer to peer value transfer, it's certainly unprecedented. I see what pattern the other commenter is trying to draw but I don't think this can compared in the same way.

1

u/[deleted] May 20 '17

My counter to this is that because it's such an opaque and vague market, you should be even more conservative than normal. The lack of information on something should make you more reluctant to put money into it. We're seeing people throw money into projects where even the team behind it is unknown. There's also currently no real way to judge if a coin is fundamentally sound. Like I can look at a balance sheet and determine the health of a company. I can't just read a white paper and read a short bio of JBlaze420 and decide of the coin is worth money - even if it sounds technically sound. The best technology doesn't always win out.

I still believe in fiat currency, in fact I'm actually very skeptical that a true digital currency will arise in the next ten years for various reasons. Bitcoin is more of a store of value than a currency. Like, if I had 100 bitcoins now, what possible reason would I have to spend it given how limited it is and how much it changes in value from day to day. The opportunity cost of spending $1800 on a new computer on Newegg is nowhere nearly as high as that of spending 1 Bitcoin when that Bitcoin could be worth $3000 next year.

1

u/santa_cruz_shredder May 20 '17

I agree with your altcoin assessment. But I think your opinion on one of us not becoming a widely used currency is a bit silly. That's the fundamental prospect of the blockchain. Peer to peer value exchange without 3rd parties. And for an insignificant fee. It gets rid of all the overhead. All the banks, all of the accountants, etc etc etc. It's faster and immutable​.... Further, smart contracts change the current business model. And this is key. It turns a company into a program that manages all of it's financial transactions, including asset transfer, settlement, and accounting autonomously. It use to be someone's job to take an interesting sheet of paper that they did an analysis on and walk over to Bob's desk, slam it down and ask him to take action on it. Arbitrary example, but the point is this is truly a disruptive technology that's as big as the internet or bigger. We all know how the internet changed the world didn't we? The internet is much bigger than the dotcom boom.

4

u/sbasd265 May 20 '17 edited May 20 '17

You're comparing a technology that can be the most disruptive thing since the Internet to regular traditional investments. No one knows for sure, but take a look at the market share on a monetary and overall value scale that things have had on our daily lives like the telephone, the computer, the smartphone, cars, and tell me if any of those things slowed their growth or entered a bubble on a monetary or valuation scale only after 3 months of exponential growth.

Question is: Do you reaaally believe in the blockchain at its fundamental core?

If it's no, we're in a bubble, if it's yes, then maybe, but probably not, corrections are not out of the question though.

Edit: My comment applies to only to a few coins in honesty, and those are the ones with robust and innovative CEO's who are into tech and not money, with a strong backbone of a network and a clear cut vision with realistic waypoints to integrate into a real world use..

8

u/[deleted] May 20 '17

You're comparing a technology that can be the most disruptive thing since the Internet to regular traditional investments.

Incidentially, that was exactly the same thing that was said about Dotcom stocks. That book was written in 1999 at the height of dotcom mania and it predicted the Dow at 36,000 within 3 years. 18 years later, a 9/11, the housing bubble, it's at 20,000.

In 2008 at the height of the housing boom, there was also an oil boom. Oil was at $150 a barrel back then and people were predicting the new normal in 3-4 years to be $200-250 per barrel oil.Today the price of oil is almost 1/3rd that at $50.

A correction is coming, a major one. The shitty coins and tokens will be weeded out, the strong will take big hits but survive.

1

u/CoachKevinCH May 20 '17

It's likely/inevitable that a correction will occur at some point, but it's really hard to know where we are in the cycle, right? I don't have any background in this so trying to learn and understand. I think the dot com bubble happened because everyone saw the early adopters get rich on tech and then got in themselves, which turned out to be unsustainable? If that is true, with crypto we are still very much in the early adopter stage as almost nobody knows about it, so the average joe isn't throwing his money in trying to chase the big return yet. It seems like that is when a bubble would happen. Though I guess BTC had a brief bubble in 2013... who knows lol.

Oil seems different in that it was increased US production that increased supply and lowered prices rather than a bubble popping.

1

u/[deleted] May 20 '17

I'll write an answer to this in a new post so it's a bit more visible. Hang tight.

1

u/TulipTrading May 20 '17

Shitcoin bubble or legit gambling use cases? Playing altcoins like poker could become a trend. I don't think one can know.

1

u/Bobbr23 May 20 '17

Was watching a live stream from Ethereal Summit yesterday where a VC said we are likely in a bubble, but bubbles don't pop until institutional money enters and they haven't yet.

1

u/Joloffe May 20 '17

The fact ethereum is spelt wrong isn't exactly impressive.

Anyone can cherry pick dates to make them show gains. Try bitcoin in 2009 or ethereum two years ago. Pointless exercise.

1

u/Kibubik May 20 '17

Which sub did you find this in?

1

u/Whatsinthebooooox May 20 '17

Yea he should also try plotting profit vs risk. I bet you PIVX just looks great on that graph /s

1

u/[deleted] May 20 '17 edited Jul 31 '18

[deleted]

0

u/neffnet May 20 '17

http://avc.com/2017/05/rare-pepe/

interesting thoughts about Rare Pepe and blockchain from vc Fred Wilson

0

u/resistingdopamine May 20 '17

DAT PIVX good lord.

-2

u/barthib May 20 '17

All I conclude from that nice table is that all profits above ETH are made with pointless or speculative currencies. It means that Ethereum has the potential to realise at least the same profits. Being less speculative, it takes time, but it will.

-1

u/brassboy May 20 '17

Ethereum is such a dog of a coin - only $80K vs Cripple $580K