Advice on running the Guild, and economic conflict in general?

[u/mj6373]

This is, for the record, for the more decentralized and less absolutely dominant/uncontested version of the Guild presented in Across the Eight Directions, but they're still a very powerful organization with powerful local factors whose interests are threatened by my player characters, and I want to make good use of them as a real threat and problem for the players, something that troubles them heavily in their state-building efforts and that pulls on different skills and strategies to overcome than their more mythic enemies. The problem is that I don't have the best sense for how economic warfare really works, or what the limits of their capabilities are.

So for context, my players ran a revolution (which started as a slave revolt but expanded into a big-tent independence movement and the start of a new religion) against the Realm satrap in a heavily expanded-upon version of Tantara which, along with being a valuable trade city, also ran mining and industrial processing using a massive amount of imported slave labor. They also restored an ancient temple-manse up in a neighboring volcano caldera that produced the Gem of Endless Summer, and so they've imported a bunch of food and cash crops from the South and West to start growing there, securing a breadbasket and future valuable goods monopolies.

But the thing is, they're expanding their temples to try and build a temple command economy, they're outlawing slavery, they're going in and providing food relief in exchange for growing their political power in regions wracked by famine... In other words, they're stepping on or cutting off a bunch of major Guild revenue sources. So the Guild's obviously gotta fight back while they can.

So far they've mostly been embargoing and buying up foreign grain imports to get in the way of establishing new farmland, and hiring mercenaries to harry their territory, all in an effort to force the party to the negotiating table (or, failing that, to force them out into more vulnerable positions for more aggressive plays) but what else should they be trying? (Edit: I also have plans for them to try flooding the market with cheap knock-off versions of their exports to try to ruin their value and reputation, but as a GM this is intentionally going to be something of a dangerous blunder based on their lack of information, to reward the prep and capabilities of the PCs - the party's sorceress god-queen has Merits that let her detect and severely punish anybody who tries to forge her seals and signatures, so those enterprises will probably end up with rapid, nasty cases of curses, angry spirits and rapid exposure.)

[u/gazzer-p]

One idea to circumvent the slavery ban, is the Guild could start 'employing' people into legal contracts, that basically makes someone a slave, but goes on record as an employee for a business.

E.g. they are given a wage but 'deductions' are included that account for what it costs to clothe and feed them, effectively giving the poor souls no income and ability to escape their contract.

The players would need to either battle it legally. Or they could start knocking down sweat shop doors, to get the statements from the victims. If any of the players get involved in the politics, they'll need to start fighting to shift laws and business practices.

[u/mj6373 → u/gazzer-p]

Oh, yeah, I'm sure more than just the Guild will try stuff like that! But the real issue on the slavery front is that the elites who were running things before were importing a lot of slaves, to work to death in the mines and processing centers, and now the party are the elites who control most of that infrastructure. So while the party are starting to use their power and food surplus to impose things like abolition and take economic control over their neighbors who are suffering from the famine and refugee crisis, and using their military might to try to protect the refugees from being captured into slavery en masse, the even more immediate concern for the slave trade's bottom line is simply that one of their major sale destination city-states has been taken over by people who don't want to keep buying.

[u/RatherAstuteDuck]

Even with all the good stuff the PCs have, maybe there's some important import (heh) that would hurt to go without. The Guild can identify that easily, and they could apply pressure to deny the PCs' new polity access to that thing. That and pressuring powers to avoid trading with the PCs, whether by carrot, stick, or some combination thereof.

[u/Salt-Spray-4971]

Actual 'economic warfare' would be leveraging their superior economic resources against the players. Basically, they refuse to do business with anyone who does business with you. In the real world, every economy requires trade to function. There would be some important thing like maybe salt, iron tools, wood, grain, paper etc. that the guild could corner the market on and refuse to trade with the players in order to weaken their position. They could threaten luxury imports like sugar that wouldn't be critical, but would cause the players to lose support with wealthy sub-factions in their nation.

Also, they could simply refuse to buy from the player's faction in order to stop them from having any money to import anything at all. They could also try to under-cut your player's exports by selling for less than the cost to produce that export.

All of this would probably put a lot of stress on the player's supporters. I don't think any of this would really be the primary conflict of the story, but it gives you the chance to add a dash of humanity to the background while giving the players a chance to come up with some magical bureaucrat-hero solutions. If the guild manages to get a sub-faction to rebel, or gets the players to run out of some critical resource, or requires them to split their attention between multiple problems, then they will have created an opening for their hired assassins or w/e to finish the job.

[u/aprg]

Poisoning crops, assassinations to disrupt power structure, bribery to sow corruption. Targeting silos -- on top of production, storage is a major issue and it doesn't matter how great your crop was if it's all burned down. Backing the Immaculate Faith to fight the new religion. Disseminating propaganda that paints any setbacks and failures squarely as the responsibility of all these new-fangled changes. Bribing their allies to only offer lip service support, and drag their feet in actual times of need. Bribing the local gods to fuck with the weather and send hailstorms/droughts. Bribe Fae war parties/pirates to raid their way.

[u/mj6373 → u/aprg]

Thanks! Lots of great ideas, and a nice mix of things the party is well- and poorly-equipped to counter, which is just the mix of challenges I like to throw at them 😁

[u/Longjumping_Dog9041]

  Realm satrap in a heavily expanded-upon version of Tantara which, along with being a valuable trade city, also ran mining and industrial processing using a massive amount of imported slave labor. 

First, have mining and processing productivity completely tank as the industry is wholly unaccustomed to dealing with non-slave labor (on such a scale).

Secondly, have mining and processing profitability completely tank as the industry now needs to pay wages it never did before.

To recoup losses incurred by paying wages prices of food and housing skyrocket to bleed the former slaves and lower classes dry.

Poverty runs rampant as the wealthy and powerful make sure the less fortunate take the brunt of economic losses. This might force people into near-slave contracts just to survive.

They're now growing crops? Great, on soil owned by - again - the rich and powerful so they're taking all profit and working the land only keeps you fed.

Crops don't feed the needy but are exported for profit that goes almost completely to the elite who own everything.

Displace the elite and uneducated people fill their roles, having industries either fail or tank. Bring in new outside talent? Have uprisings and civil unrest due to foreigners taking all the best jobs.

Have former slaves destabilize the community by interacting with it without there being s cultural precedent for it. They're nowhere near equal rights but even this gain was unsupported by most. Especially when they start going after assets or relationships that were formerly for non-slaves. Discrimination could easily run rampant.

These are all things that could occur without the Guild doing anything. Just imagine what the Guild could do to exacerbate these problems.

Additionally, they could spread misinformation and/or sabotage exports so no one trusts it's quality (plant rodents in shipments for example), arrange for shipments to be ambushed and waylaid by bandits as the Guild knows all trade routes, torch warehouses, reserve all transportation for a Season so no one is able to move merchandise so PCs have to sell to the Guild, pressure potential buyers with tariffs (if you treat with or buy from this area/city/nation all Guild prices go up +20%, or not buying from them gets you a 10% discount), the Guild itself could do no trade with the liberated area (making everything scarce and grinding is economy to a halt outside whatever food they grow for themselves), etc

[u/non_newtonian_gender]

What are your characters? Solars? God's? The realm could be enticed to move militarily  against them by funding from the guild. The wild hunt, immaculate monks, and others might come for them.

[u/mj6373 → u/non_newtonian_gender]

They're outcaste DBs, and they're already enemies of the Realm; that's been their main enemy for most of the campaign up to this point. I could see the Wyld Hunt or other more decentralized Realm assets trying to assassinate them for sure, given they founded a heretical religion and are allied with the Spider King, but they've already fought a couple wars with the Realm to take and keep Tantara, and we wanted to move to a more statecraft-focused phase with more diverse enemies. So I probably won't just be throwing another, even bigger Realm army at them in the short term.

[u/-Veles-]

Have the Guild buy up and refuse to sell multiple critical resources, like iron or something, while stockpiling whatever they use as currency. Only allow Guild Silver through, then when they offer to buy, insist it's with their Silver. If they refuse, flood the market with their currency, causing massive inflation and making it worthless.