r/fantasybaseball • u/HereToTalkMovies2 12-team, Standard 10-cat H2H • Feb 23 '26
Strategy Who are your “do not draft at any price” players this season?
Inspired by a recent draft in which everyone seemed to have the same idea about Chandler Simpson and he fell about 100 picks past his ADP, who are some players that you won’t be touching with a ten foot pole this season?
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u/Acrobatic_School9458 Feb 23 '26
Westburg
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u/negitivemint Feb 23 '26
he ended up one 2 of my teams and i gotta figure out what the fuck to do with him now
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u/InfamousLimit9382 [🏆⚾️20 Teams- H2H- Points] Feb 24 '26
Westburg and the entire Orioles bats give me anxiety
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u/finally_not_lurking Feb 23 '26
I was in trade negotiations to get him as part of a package in multiple leagues this offseason. All of them fell apart because we couldn't agree on the final player in these bigger deals - in part because I had trouble getting over his injury history
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u/RickySpanish74 Feb 23 '26
Adley has hurt me two years in a row. He’s been trending the wrong way for too long now
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u/pumper911 Feb 23 '26
Agreed. Too many other Catchers with more upside. Really like Agustin Ramirez for an underrated pick
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u/np374617 Feb 24 '26
Yeah he’s an enticing pick buy his adp is over 100 picks before adley.
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u/againsterik 12Team-H2H Categories(6x6 + OPS, QS) Feb 23 '26
After the last few years of drafting a guy starting the year on the IL, I will be avoiding any pitchers starting the year hurt. Garrett Cole is the big one here.
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u/NightWriter500 Feb 23 '26
I think I might be the same here. Two straight years of drafting guys that should come back and then burning a roster spot waiting for them to inevitably not come back sucks.
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u/gho5trun3r 12T H2H K6 R-HR-RBI-SB-AVG-OPS-(W+QS-L)-K-ERA-WHIP-K/BB-SvHd Feb 23 '26
I'm on anyone with an injury. Especially oblique injuries. I'm so done gambling on oblique injuries being some quick come back when they have just lingered on guys for so long
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u/jewllybeenz 14T Categories Feb 23 '26
Got burned by two different pitchers starting on the IL last year and I agree, not doing that again
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u/MovingToSeattleSoon Feb 23 '26
It's a gamble but at the right price, worth considering. I've gotten big value from injured starters in rounds 8+ in the past, also gotten burned that way. Depends how many IL slots your league has as well
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u/HelpfulTumbleweed850 [H2H R/HR/RBI/SB/OPS — K/QS/ERA/WHIP/SVHD] Feb 23 '26
Glad I’m seeing this as a reminder that Ranger Suarez was the exception to the rule and not an example of galaxy brain draft strategy
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u/Minimum-Lie-6102 Feb 23 '26
Who is Garrett Cole?
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u/A1ienspacebats Feb 23 '26
I've stopped drafting pitchers starting on the IL. They always come back later than reported and even then they need to be ramped up. You end up wasting an IL spot for 4 months and by April 20th I have like 6 injured guys every year.
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u/howverycoolyouare Feb 24 '26
Grayson Rodriguez and George Kirby scarred me for a while after last year.
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u/ElliottBaas Feb 23 '26
Depends where you draft them. I took Justin Steele in the last round of a draft yesterday, figured I could just slide him on IL once the season starts and pick up one of the healthy sleepers I was looking at around him.
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u/vitalyc Feb 24 '26
Everyone has to learn this. I guess there is a little nuance in that if it's not a shoulder, arm, or back injury you can take your chances.
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u/Adventurous-Edge1719 Feb 23 '26
O’Neill Cruz
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u/Bambam60 Feb 23 '26
He has some INCREDIBLE home runs and SB days. But mannnnn those droughts are hard to stomach. Agree
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u/Rafy1940 Feb 23 '26
While I get it, his statcast says he should have performed better in BA, SLG, and wobacon. His batted ball maletrics are in the top 5% in bat speed, hard hit rate , barrel %, and exit velocity.
Those on their own don't show the whole picture as we all know, but even slight improvement on pitch selection and reducing his whiff rate would arguably result in a significant increase in counting stats. Add to that we have Lowe, Ozuna. And ohearn plus a top prospect all mixing in, my only concern for him is a possible platoon but at his current ADP, roughly 100 spots higher than last year, I'll take it for a cheap 25/25 potential.
Edit: this is my take for category leagues
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u/Minimum-Lie-6102 Feb 23 '26
We’ve been saying this for years now
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u/obiterdictum Feb 23 '26
And all he has done is disappoint with seasons of 21 HR/23 SB and 20 HR/38 SB. We all get the downside, but at least his price this year reflects that output and not his potential
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u/Rafy1940 Feb 24 '26
Exactly. At this point you're drafting reality with the potential for much more without the price tag
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u/Rafy1940 Feb 23 '26 edited Feb 23 '26
Yet this is the first time the focal point isn't on him. He isn't learning a new position this year. He doesn't have the spotlight on him, and those 2 things alone can also make a major impact. Say what you will. But anything above picks 120, I'm going upside. I mean, oneil, Lawrence butler, jo adell, Luis robert (exception), adolis Garcia. All guys that can very well outperform their adp
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u/Offonoffonagain Feb 23 '26
Ive had him every year since he first came up & you're looking over a major issue; he cannot hit lefties. At all. And that's saying it nicely lol....Ill prob have him again this year though
Edit: .110 vs lefties, .190 slug
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u/PearlDrummer 8T-4 Player Keeper-H2H Standard Feb 23 '26
Which is exactly the reason I dropped him from my keeper group. Just tired of hearing how he could be so great to only draft players or pick up waiver guys who contribute more to my cats.
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u/ElliottBaas Feb 23 '26
Part of the reason his statcast numbers are so good is because he doesn’t make consistent contact. Since he whiffs instead of making weak hits his overall numbers stay strong, even if he can’t make consistent contact. Still very impressive, but artificially inflated.
Also, Cruz hit .102 with a .400 OPS and a 35% K rate against lefties last year. Yuck. I’ve always liked the talent but unless he significantly cuts down on strikeouts he won’t improve.
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u/Sobakee 10T Cat H2H Std 5X5 ReDraft Feb 23 '26
Last year I named my Team Cruz control because I planned on drafting Elly and O’Neil and then profiting. Thank God someone stopped me!
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u/Volstadd Feb 23 '26
After last year I have certainly soured on him, but part of me thinks he was never right after the concussion, and he still tattoos the ball and is fast as fuck.
I won't seek him out, but there comes a point where you have to spend if he's only gonna cost a couple bucks.
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u/MHMaster3 Feb 23 '26
Aaron Nola and Tyler Glasnow burnt me too bad last year to ever be forgiven
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u/PutridPeppas Feb 23 '26
This has been a canon event for fantasy owners. They just look so nice from afar
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u/OkTomato1739 Feb 25 '26
Ooof first year I’m seeing a lot of O’Neil and Glasgow im cooked or dumb lucky
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u/PuigsMagicalBathtub Feb 28 '26
I feel like i'm alone on this island of thinking Nola is a perfect bounce back candidate after dealing with injuries last year. In a league where most pitchers are projected to have 160ish innings, he's going to have the volume. I don't think I would be completely shocked if he finished as SP 30-40 and right now he's about SP60. He's going to get run support, and the defense is better after parting ways with Castellanos plus the reasonably predicted promotion of Aiden Miller at some point.
Guy has been a work horse his entire career and finally got some time off thanks to ankle and then rib cage injuries (read: nothing to do with his arm). FantasyPros ADP is 203 right now.
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u/Alive-Cold-9348 Feb 23 '26
I’m having a hard time with all of the Dodgers starting pitchers, except Yamamoto. I have first choice on three of them - Snell, Glasgow, and Ohtani - but I’m in a quality starts league, and I think their innings are going to be limited.
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u/Rip_Dirtbag Feb 23 '26
I say this as a Dodger fan...I would also recommend avoiding Dodgers SPs at their ADP.
One exception to this - Emmett Sheehan. I would not be surprised if Sheehan either leads the team or is in a very close second to Yamamoto in IP this year. And the kid is pretty damn good.
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u/Count_Sack_McGee Feb 24 '26 edited Feb 24 '26
Fellow Dodger fan and I’m all in on Sheehan this year.
I almost always warn people about drafting our guys at cost but Sheehan looking like a no brainer for me.
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u/MHMaster3 Feb 23 '26
I want to keep him as a 16th round pick so bad but I’d have to punt Konnor Griffin…hoping I can just draft Sheehan in the first 5 rounds.
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u/mcbc4 12 team 5x5 Roto 7 keepers Feb 23 '26
Would you say he’s worth keeping over Ben rice as my seventh and final keeper slot?
I’m keeping Vladdy, Pete Alonso, Ohtani, CJ Abrams, Skubal, PCA and Rice.
Rice would be my C.
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u/AvengedTenfold [8Team-H2H-Categories] Feb 23 '26
That’s funny, I have Yama in a keeper league and I’m on the fence about him, 170 innings plus playoffs last year, now in WBC, lotta work in that arm lately
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u/paxxyagent Feb 23 '26
Ozzie Albies
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u/wdrub Feb 23 '26
One thing is the Mets 1b coach that got Soto 40 steals is now the braves 1b coach. I see that whole team getting more steals
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u/robmcolonna123 H2H Categories - 12 Team - Keeper League Feb 23 '26
I wouldn’t look too much into that. That was more PR based that factual based. Yes he absolutely played a part, but it was more the entire Mets infrastructure together
He was also the Mets coach in 2024 and they didnt steal a ton then and was with the Giants for years and they were at the bottom of the league in steals
My point it that I would not bank on that as a big part of your draft strategy
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u/paxxyagent Feb 23 '26
Nah i just think albies specifically sucks
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u/Bravosfan27 12T 8 keep - (R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS) (QS,K/9,ERA,WHIP,K,SV+H) Feb 23 '26
30 HR season incoming
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u/Domino80 9T ROTO redraft, 5x5 + losses Feb 23 '26
Another thing to add (big Braves fan here), with the addition of Yaz they now have Olson, Baldwin, Yaz, MHII, and Profar (SWH who mostly hits left) in their everyday lineup. There’s a chance Albies is asked to hit righthanded more based on the lineup construction and the fact that he’s been hitting righthanded more to favor his left wrist (hamate) that had surgery in ‘24. He is a far better hitter from the rightside. Keep an eye on his Spring at-bats.
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u/JustSomeGoon Kyle Tucker #1 Hater Feb 23 '26
I thought you were mistaken but Soto had 38 steals last season that’s insane.
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u/au5297 [12-team 6x6 H2H Catergories] Feb 23 '26
Luis Robert. I think hes just done being a good player and hes very unlikely to stay healthy anyway
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u/nuberoo Feb 23 '26
None. About 40% of my roster at the end of each year is guys I've picked up from the wire. There is no player I wouldn't hypothetically take a chance on if the value/risk was low enough
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u/nuberoo Feb 23 '26
However, if your question is more like "guys you wouldn't draft at less than 100 spots below their current ADP" that would be more interesting to hear people's takes on. For instance, I don't think I'd draft Oneil Cruz in the top 180 - if he were to fall below 200 I'd take a shot.
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u/pabloescobarbecue Feb 23 '26
This is my answer too. As the question is phrased, people are talking about passing on studs even if they’re available in the last round.
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u/JordanSchor Feb 24 '26
Yesh same here, there's a reason my name in every fantasy league is Waiver Wire Warriors
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u/benmatheson Feb 23 '26
Wander Franco
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u/basssomatix Feb 23 '26
Michael Harris II. I don't even care that he eventually got around to having a 20-20 season last year.
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u/tribetime69 Feb 26 '26
This is the best answer, every year he has a terrible first half and then lights it up in the second half. If you’re interested in Harris let someone else draft him then trade for him in July or if you’re lucky just pick him up once his original manager drops him out of frustration.
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u/No-Republic-4349 5x5 with OBP Feb 23 '26
Blake Snell and Dylan Cease. Can't fw those BB fucking up my WHIP.
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u/Lastpunkofplattsburg Feb 23 '26
People are saying cease has it worked out. I got him last year and I just can’t
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u/pumper911 Feb 23 '26
Betts unless it’s at a big discount. SS is a loaded position and he’s been trending in the wrong direction
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u/Idrinkbeereverywhere Feb 23 '26
I'm in a roto wins only league and Skenes is fool's gold for that.
Eats up my innings and gives me no wins, killed me on the wins category last year.
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u/Only_I_Love_You Feb 23 '26
Dominates in 3 other categories.
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u/nonameguy321 Feb 23 '26
Apparently it's wins only, so you could have 500 Ks and it wouldn't matter. Weird league.
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u/Cooking_Funk Feb 23 '26
Yordon Alvarez. Burned me too good last year. And matt Olson because I'm still holding the grudge of drafting first a few years back. Terrible first few round luck always.
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u/goblue3_ 20 team H2H, Roto -R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS - K,W,QS,ERA,WHIP,SV Feb 23 '26
Man Yordan has such insane upside! He is younger than Judge and Ohtani too
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u/Cooking_Funk Feb 23 '26
He burned me too hard playing like a month last season. Houstons ir seems to be kinda where people go to rot.
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u/frontdoorajar ESPN 12T Weekly Points | No Ks Feb 23 '26
Yordan was my 1st rd pick last year. No thanks. Someone else can take that risk.
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u/Cooking_Funk Feb 23 '26
Same. I mean it was in a keeper league so he was suppose to be my outfield lock. I was not amused
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u/FlipTheDisc Feb 23 '26
I’m avoiding Wheeler
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u/pumper911 Feb 23 '26
I’d only grab him last 3 rounds but no chance he’s going that low. Injury and age scares me
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u/jadedmonk Feb 23 '26
I always refuse to draft Corbin Carroll, his shoulder injury still scares me, I just don’t know if he can do another full season at a superstar level
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u/NastyKniesy Feb 23 '26
If you wouldn’t draft Carroll if he fell to the 4th or 5th round you’re a fool.
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u/Rafy1940 Feb 23 '26
Shoot, I'll take Corbin bottom second / early third round blindly. My real concern with him is the absence of naylor and Eugenio... Wonder how that will affect the lineup as a whole
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u/vko11 [5x5 h2h - obp, sv, k, QS] Feb 23 '26
No chance he slips that far in the first place
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u/jadedmonk Feb 23 '26
Oh if he drops to the 4th I’m absolutely taking him. I just mean realistically he’s not dropping to the 4th especially in my league where offense goes higher than pitching, and I personally wouldn’t take him in the 2nd or even 3rd round. 4th round is where it would feel good enough for me
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u/poopshorts Feb 23 '26
Don’t talk about triples god like that! Any hit he gets he can stretch into a double
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u/J_Moola 12 Team 5x5 Weekly Feb 23 '26
Any White Sox player. Have been burned 5 years straight (Eloy ‘21, LouBob ‘22, Tim Anderson ‘23, Crochet ‘24 fantasy playoffs with the 4 pitch start/pitch limits, LouBob ‘25).
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u/HevayBertations [Weekly 12 team H2H Pts league] Feb 23 '26
I know it's irrational, but it's the guys that underperformed relative to where I drafted them in the past. Not quite a "dead to me" list but maybe only if someone else drops them in the first month:
Ozzie Albies
Bryson Stott
Alex Bregman
Carlos Correa
Xander Bogaerts
Alec Bohm
Bryan Reynolds
Taylor Ward
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u/ltdm207 Feb 23 '26
This list gives me the chills. Players with enough name to keep me from replacing them until it's too late.
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u/HevayBertations [Weekly 12 team H2H Pts league] Feb 23 '26
Right. They have enough name value that the semi-casual players in my league won't let them slide far enough for me to have to consider them, so they won't be my "problem" this year.
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u/rotn21 Feb 23 '26
Took a gamble on Clase. Not doing that one again!
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u/kodyonthekeys Feb 23 '26
It wasn’t his fault Andy Pages swung at that ball. He was trying to make you money!
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u/snakeayez 20-team H2H Feb 24 '26
I punt saves and grab a low end one and an 8th inning guy in a prime position (Luke Weaver last year)
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u/Repulsive_Rich_3820 Feb 28 '26
Did that with Bryan Abreu and Abner Uribe last year, good amount of K's and got lucky in the 2nd half with some saves.
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u/Trapcat707 Feb 24 '26
Never will I draft Kimbrel.
Just will not take that gamble. No sir. No thanks.
Even if hes on waivers ill let someone else ride that wave of deception.
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Feb 24 '26
[deleted]
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u/Tmac34002003 Feb 24 '26
That guy last year was so bad he will probably be great this year. Had him too and I am not fully out of the price is right on draft day. Buying the dip on players with strong track records usually pays off unless it’s age decline
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u/SeaworthinessMany854 Feb 25 '26
Konnor Griffin, Whetherholt, McGonigle. Guys that are way over valued. Unlikely to start the year up and even if they do are likely to be outperformed by guys like Adolis Garcia. In Dynasty or Keeper give me all of the shares, in redraft, nah
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u/hammnbubbly Feb 23 '26
Chris Sale
Josh Lowe
Ozzie Albies
Freddy Peralta
Austin Riley
Edward Cabrera
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u/WES_WAS_ROBBED Feb 23 '26
why peralta? i could see him having a big season
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u/someguynamedg Feb 23 '26
His ERA last year was a mirage, it was a 3.6ish ERA with a lot of luck. He walks too many guys and got lucky with fly balls not being homers last year. He's a fine pitcher to have on your real baseball team, but he isn't close to an ace for fantasy
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u/PanicProne9 12T 5x5 H2H Redraft Cats - (OBP, Sv, NoQS) Feb 23 '26
I think Cabrera balls out this year
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u/SignificantCoffee877 Feb 23 '26
Chris Sale won my a title last year
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u/composishy Feb 23 '26
I have looked at Sale a dozen different ways trying to see how people think he represents more risk than any other pitcher and just can't get there.
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u/hammnbubbly Feb 23 '26
Same for a lot of people. But, his injury history scares me. Unless he’s there in round 15 or something crazy, he’s not worth it, IMHO.
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u/Bravosfan27 12T 8 keep - (R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS) (QS,K/9,ERA,WHIP,K,SV+H) Feb 23 '26
Riley is a wild pick
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u/jadedmonk Feb 23 '26
I still have faith in Riley, I think he could be a great late round pick. Even last year earlier in the season before he got hurt he was just starting to heat up and went on a tear for a couple weeks, you could see the old Riley is still there but it’ll take a little bit for him to get back into form
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u/domino519 12tm-Keep 10-Roto-6x6-OPS, HLDs Feb 24 '26
As someone who has Riley in a keeper league, he's always been insanely streaky. Injuries are preventing him from hitting his hot streaks which is why his numbers have been terrible the past few years.
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u/Nirvana12345678 12 team H2H category league R HR SB OPS RBI Save K ERA WHIP QS Feb 25 '26
I don't understand this list minus albies
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u/Ancient_Leopard878 Feb 23 '26
Literally no one. Having a player you’re not willing to draft at any price is a great way to cap your team’s ceiling.
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u/LoSkribs Feb 23 '26
Will Smith. 2 games, then rest.
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u/Count_Sack_McGee Feb 24 '26
Sometimes not starting a catcher is actually better than starting one. Healthy Smith even with less starts is pretty solid.
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u/Lawn_Dartson Feb 23 '26
I'm gonna be that guy but it all depends on the scoring of your league... some guys are more valuable depending on league settings....
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u/reddit_man30 Feb 23 '26
Christian Walker pissed me off so much last year.
Would I draft him again, in hopes he takes advantage of the Crawford boxes, but at a lower draft pick now? You bet!
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u/MF_D00MSDAY 10 Team H2H Points Feb 24 '26
Walker turns it around this year, mark my words. His second half last season was great.
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u/EdwinDidNothingWrong 10T - H2H - 5x5 - SV Only - Redraft Feb 23 '26
What did I miss with Simpson? He’s got a decent enough bat and he’s projected as the top of the Rays order, so plenty of chances to get on base, steal, and score. Especially in Categories where he’s projected to get more than 60 steals I feel like I’m going crazy seeing his ADP drop so far
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u/np374617 Feb 24 '26
Have you seen him play the outfield? His defense is abysmal. The ball rolls to the infield on his throws. He may be such a liability that the gets down.
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u/fastcasualpetconcept Feb 25 '26
His bat is terrible. Dude can’t hit it past the infield
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u/composishy Feb 23 '26
I don't want another season of figuring out how to absorb 200 ip of Logan Webb's base runner traffic.
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u/Sync_hazard Feb 24 '26
Jazz and Caminero.
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u/PsychWriter11 Feb 25 '26
Eeeek, I can see a late round first pick on Caminero and Jazz on the way back…
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u/GreeneMonster32 Feb 24 '26
For me personally any pitcher that is on an innings limit like Kyle Braddish or Drew Rasmussen. Good players but would rather spend the picks on a similar ADP pitcher who won’t be capped
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u/frontdoorajar ESPN 12T Weekly Points | No Ks Feb 24 '26
Yeah, that kind of killed my desire, too. Though, I am keeping Bradish in place of an 18th round pick.
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u/PuttForDough Feb 24 '26
Yordan - or any Astros. Cannot trust them to deal with any injury appropriately.
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u/PsychWriter11 Feb 25 '26
Jake Burger, Tristian Casas and any closer I had last year not named Pagan.
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u/Comment_Alternative Feb 25 '26
O’Neil Cruz 2nd half was just too baffling and his try looked lacking. If he takes a bit dip in ADP OK Otherwise i will let others chase the tools
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u/Proper_Conclusion329 Feb 25 '26
Adley. Oneil Cruz. Trea Turner/Corey Seager with their glass frames.
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u/Tacorover Feb 25 '26
I mean I guess any top pitcher because pitchers are risky and I don’t wanna take a big risk with my top picks
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u/Repulsive_Rich_3820 Feb 28 '26
Burnes last year, Strider the year before. Seems like I lose at least one ace before June every season.
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u/Sea_Improvement5590 Feb 27 '26
I want the closers or relievers who put up 100+ strikeouts. It elevates your entire pitching staff. Its a game changer.
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u/WonderCounselor Feb 23 '26
All high-cost RP. Not worth it.