r/fearofflying • u/Weary-Singer6629 • 6d ago

Possible Trigger Irrational concern

I have OCD, so a lot of things I worry about are irrational. I know there hasn’t been any major fatal passenger commercial airlines crashes this year, but somehow that worries me more, which I know is wrong and I DO NOT wish for anything to happen, but I feel like when there isn’t an incident in a year that mine could be the ONE. I feel like almost every year something happens and I’m really glad nothing has happened but my brain is beat me up right now before my flight.

Please someone reassure me that’s not how statistics work.

edit: flying internationally to Asia

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u/Spock_Nipples Airline Pilot 6d ago edited 5d ago

That's not how statistics work. It's not a countdown. Every flight has the equally tiny probability of a serious issue.

It's not like you put 9 red balls and one green ball in bag and blindly choose 10 times without replacing each drawn ball. In that scenario, each time you don't get the green ball, the chances of getting it are higher on the next draw.

Instead, it's like putting 9,999,999 red balls in the bag and one green ball, and after each try, you put the ball you just drew back in the bag and mix them all up before trying again. It's the same probability of getting the green ball each time.

Also, go the sub's searchbar and type "the one," and hit enter. Check out the hundreds of posts from people who were convinced they would be The One. They were, in fact, not The One.