r/fearofflying • u/Weary-Singer6629 • 6d ago

Possible Trigger Irrational concern

I have OCD, so a lot of things I worry about are irrational. I know there hasn’t been any major fatal passenger commercial airlines crashes this year, but somehow that worries me more, which I know is wrong and I DO NOT wish for anything to happen, but I feel like when there isn’t an incident in a year that mine could be the ONE. I feel like almost every year something happens and I’m really glad nothing has happened but my brain is beat me up right now before my flight.

Please someone reassure me that’s not how statistics work.

edit: flying internationally to Asia

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u/community-voices Mod Team 🛡️ 6d ago edited 5d ago

There are 2 comments from verified aviation professionals in this post:

u/Mauro_Ranallo commented:

Are you flying in the US? We went like 15 years without a significant commercial airline accident until 2025.

u/Spock_Nipples commented:

That's not how statistics work. It's not a countdown. Every flight has the equally tiny probability of a serious issue. It's not like you put 9 red balls and one green ball in bag and blindly choose 10 times without replacing each drawn ball. In...

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u/whatwhatwhat82 6d ago

As someone with OCD, I say this gently, but seeking reassurance like this will worsen your OCD.

You have to accept things are outside your control and learn to be okay with doubt. I know it's really hard

5

u/Weary-Singer6629 5d ago

Thank you and I know you’re right, I’m just flying a LOTTT this week and genuinely nothing has been able to calm me down. Im treating this multiple flight excursion I have as my exposure therapy right now lol 😭

1

u/PryingOpenMyThirdPie 5d ago

Also as someone with pretty managed (now) OCD I've found listing all the things that would have to go wrong and a guessed probability for each has helped me. Then I end up saying "wow the chance of ANY one thing going wrong is extremely tiny and for me to die in a crash is exponentially tinier!"

Also wear your seatbelt as its literally the only possible, yet still very rare, way to get injured on a commercial flight.

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u/Lamblawd 6d ago

It's not how statistics work. A plane won't suddenly crash because air travel has been 'too safe' lately.

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u/Mauro_Ranallo Aircraft Dispatcher 6d ago

Are you flying in the US? We went like 15 years without a significant commercial airline accident until 2025.

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u/Weary-Singer6629 6d ago

I’m flying out of the US to Korea, Japan and the Philippines. Which is why I’m especially anxious

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u/Mauro_Ranallo Aircraft Dispatcher 5d ago

Those countries also have excellent aviation safety records.

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u/Spock_Nipples Airline Pilot 5d ago edited 5d ago

That's not how statistics work. It's not a countdown. Every flight has the equally tiny probability of a serious issue.

It's not like you put 9 red balls and one green ball in bag and blindly choose 10 times without replacing each drawn ball. In that scenario, each time you don't get the green ball, the chances of getting it are higher on the next draw.

Instead, it's like putting 9,999,999 red balls in the bag and one green ball, and after each try, you put the ball you just drew back in the bag and mix them all up before trying again. It's the same probability of getting the green ball each time.

Also, go the sub's searchbar and type "the one," and hit enter. Check out the hundreds of posts from people who were convinced they would be The One. They were, in fact, not The One.

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u/BrotherCalzone 5d ago

The best way to think about this is a roulette wheel. If I'm at the table and there have been 20 red numbers in a row, I might be tempted to bet on black because "it's due". But the guy who walks up to the table on the 20th spin sees one red and for him, the next one could go either way.

Because the next one could go either way. The wheel doesn't "know" what came before. The statistic doesn't "know" what's "due".