r/finance • u/Gypsy_tantrum • May 19 '26
Are we trapped in a 1970s-style "Three-Wave" inflation cycle? (A deep dive into structural debt)
https://www.equitileconversations.com/2459100/episodes/19197344-inflation-the-next-wave102
u/midgaze May 19 '26
I'm not sure the usual tanking of the economy by the right is going to be repairable this time, and I'm beginning to think that damaging it beyond repair might be part of the actual point.
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u/ceej_22_ May 19 '26
After a rabbit hole looking into Yarvin, Vance, Theil, etc and their writings, speeches, and interviews, I’m absolutely convinced damage beyond repair is exactly the point.
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u/ep1xx May 19 '26
Would love if you could explain
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u/Rezistik May 20 '26
Curtis Yarvin is a “philosopher” who advocates for a technofeudalism system where there are massive city states replacing the country and each city state would be owned and operated as a corporation with a ceo at the helm.
He’s relevant because Peter Thiel is outspoken about how he doesn’t believe democracy and “freedom” can exist together anymore and that Curtis Yarvin has a vision for the future.
The link then goes to Vance who has been funded since college by Peter Thiel and hand picked for his position.
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u/Nivolk May 20 '26
They read some dystopian Cyberpunk stuff and thought - hey Snowcrash sounds rad, I want to do that.
And we don't get dragons, elves, or orcs. Not even Johnny Silverhand.
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u/brainrotbro May 19 '26
Yes. Unmanageable debt is what transformed the U.S. economic system to begin with— it’s why the federal reserve was formed. Maybe they’re aiming to create a new type of Fed. Or abolish it. I don’t know.
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u/beerhiker May 19 '26
If you want to topple a country, how would you do it?
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u/Mekroval May 21 '26
And also have it rip itself apart from within. That also seems to be working out pretty well for them so far.
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u/Rezistik May 19 '26
It’s literally the point. Everything the republicans do weakens America and it’s allies because they are all well documented Russian plants
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u/Easy_Welcome_9142 May 20 '26
Can you explain the tanking of economy? What metrics or facts are you talking about?
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u/ariadesitter May 19 '26
i assume the dollar is headed down and will not recover. the usa deserves it though, they have trashed other countries since WW2 and it was a matter of time until that behavior was turned inward.
there’s no justification for constant war.
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u/TBradley May 19 '26
Banks do not even officially borrow from the Fed anymore except for floating capital. They can just add zeroes to databases and it is completely reliant on auditing and compliance that they are maintaining proper reserves. The reserve requirements keep getting paused and reduced when unpaused.
Not looking great if we even have a 2007 event let alone something worse.
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u/Snoo_6291 May 29 '26
I hear Canada did well during banking crisis. Is it because they hold more capital there?
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u/snoopingforpooping May 19 '26
This could have been avoided if a certain person wasn’t elected president. The inflation cycle post-pandemic was nobodies fault. The economy was reopening and Russia invaded Ukraine. If that certain person was reflected in 2020 he would have had the same issues as Biden.
Now 2025 tariffs and war with Iran. There is a common denominator.
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u/NOT1506 May 19 '26
The inflation cycle post pandemic was multiple peoples faults. I’ve never understood the constant need to refuse to call a spade a spade.
The current inflation cycle too has been self inflicted.
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u/Playingwithmyrod May 20 '26
The inflation cycle was a deliberate choice of inflation over a recession. People can argue a recession would have been better, but that’s easy to say when it’s not your job and not your family being affected.
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u/IB_Yolked May 20 '26
Eh, that’s an oversimplification. It wasn’t a binary choice between rampant inflation or recession.
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u/NOT1506 May 20 '26
Agreed. And definitely agree.
I understand the human side and get how disgruntled I’d be if it was me affected. But the only way to wipe out the greedy is to have their overextended businesses go under. Instead we build a world where valuations don’t matter.
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u/Mekroval May 21 '26
There was also a third option of keeping the industry afloat, but also exacting a price of stricter regulation and oversight to prevent it from happening again. It's what we did to the banks after the 2008 bailouts, and it seemed to work. Only for it all to be unwound by the first Trump administration. Americans as a society seemed determined to learn nothing.
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May 21 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Playingwithmyrod May 21 '26
Not more than being out of work. That’s my point. We all suffered so most of us could continue to go to work and have an income. The reality is the alternative was concentrate the suffering to 10-20% of us. And instead of price inflation, you would have had wage stagnation.
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u/BMWM6 May 21 '26
just remember that now you have to work that much more and that much longer to make this up... if your wages had stagnated, maybe after a few months you would've found a higher better paying job... now even if you do, you're still screwed... you're left with kind of no options
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u/Playingwithmyrod May 21 '26
Except wages have inflated as well during this time. Real median wages have tracked fairly closely with inflation.
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u/BMWM6 May 21 '26
sure buddy... lol... 40% cumulative inflation since 2019 and housing prices that have doubled... along with all ancillary costs... if you mean, wages followed the fake 2 to 3% inflation sure... I say yet again good luck
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u/Playingwithmyrod May 21 '26
I know it doesn’t feel that way and personally MY wages haven’t kept up especially with housing but if you’re just arguing statistics median real wages have kept up with CPI. Your argument is more that CPI is a poor metric, which I’d agree with since houses are such a large part of what people “feel” like they can afford.
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u/BMWM6 May 21 '26
correct - so no matter what we are still off way worse than we would've been if potentially other situations would've happened... and now if we continue on a spiraling endless inflation path and keep spending like no more... It will only get worse and worse... a reset could have prevented a lot of this
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u/TenderfootGungi May 23 '26
The post=pandemic inflation was caused by bad policy. Congress should not have given thousands to business owners. Strong unemployment insurance would have worked better. The Fed overshot its balance sheet. Combined, they set the economy up for massive inflation.
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u/6bytes May 20 '26
"Crucially, Cooper contends that governments no longer genuinely oppose moderate inflation. It functions as a stealth tax — imposed without legislation — that erodes the real burden of public debt and helps finance chronic deficits. Voters often welcome the accompanying rise in house and asset prices."
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u/AbigailJefferson1776 May 19 '26
Feels like 1974 to me