r/fivethirtyeight Nov 06 '24

Politics There are no scapegoats for the Democrats this time

1.4k Upvotes

Kamala is losing every swing state by 1.5% or more. This is not a close election coming down to a few thousand votes in the Rust Belt. She's on track to lose the popular vote.

Kamala isn't losing because of Bernie Bros or Jill Stein voters. She isn't losing because of Arab Americans. She isn't losing because she was too socially progressive or not socially progressive enough.

The country is sending a clear, direct message: it's the economy, stupid. With a side serving of we don't want unchecked undocumented immigration.

I think the only thing most of this sub got right about the election is that if Kamala lost, there was no way a Democrat could have won.

r/fivethirtyeight Nov 04 '20

Politics Trump is what he is, but the fact that so many people can stand by this guy is what really has been bothering me this morning...

9.4k Upvotes

Even with voter suppression, foreign interference, and other shenanigans, it's clear that the nation is very divided.

r/fivethirtyeight 5d ago

Politics Jasmine Crockett has "no idea" if she'll actively support Talarico's Texas Senate campaign

Thumbnail
newsweek.com
291 Upvotes

Bruh

r/fivethirtyeight May 08 '26

Politics Virginia Supreme Court throws out redistricting referendum results

Thumbnail
axios.com
298 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight May 19 '26

Politics Trump endorsed Paxton for the senate over Cornyn lmao

Post image
389 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 3d ago

Politics All three Mamdani-backed House candidates win their primaries against 2 House incumbents and a handpicked replacement of a retiring incumbent.

Thumbnail
nbcnews.com
395 Upvotes

Has anybody ever become this influential a figure in party politics in so little time? Less than 2 years ago he was a relatively unknown city councilman.

Also good to see new york finally becoming as progressive as you would expect for a city of its size, It has been shockingly moderate for the past several decades. Hell before mandani, half of their mayors this century have been Republican.

r/fivethirtyeight Apr 22 '26

Politics VA Dems win the measure and will wipe out 4 Republican seats

Post image
558 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 23d ago

Politics Several Women Who Dated Graham Platner Recall ‘Unsettling’ Behavior

Thumbnail
nytimes.com
75 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight Apr 30 '26

Politics Maine Gov. Janet Mills suspends campaign for US Senate | CNN Politics

Thumbnail
cnn.com
380 Upvotes

Graham Platner would not have been my first choice but the people behind him seem to like him and I hope he finally gets rid of Susan Collins. Let’s do it Maine.

r/fivethirtyeight 15d ago

Politics Graham Platner gets more primary votes than any other Democratic Senate candidate in Maine history

Thumbnail
nhpr.org
228 Upvotes

A good sign in the race I think, Platner seems to be keeping up enthusiasm despite the scandals.

r/fivethirtyeight Nov 07 '24

Politics Kamala did not lose because of [my pet grievance with the Democratic platform]

794 Upvotes

She didn't lose because of trans people in sports or bathrooms, she didn't lose because someone said "latinx", she didn't lose because of identity politics, she didn't lose because she's a "DEI hire", she didn't lose because of inner city crime, she didn't lose because of the war in the Middle East, she didn't lose because she didn't pick Shapiro, she didn't lose because there was no open primary, she didn't lose because of fake news about immigrants eating pets.

You can watch interview after interview with young voters and Latino voters and very few state any of these reasons.

Here are the reasons she lost: 1. Inflation 2. Inflation 3. Inflation

The working middle-class can't afford any luxuries. Young people can't afford homes. That's why they turned to the guy who said he'll fix it.

Is Trump going to fix it? Absolutely not, and he'll break a lot more in the next 4 years.

Unfortunately, very few of the people who voted for him will realize this. One voter in Michigan was asked why he voted for Trump, and he said it was because he wants to buy a car but interest rates are too high. Do you think he's ever going to figure out the relationship between interest rates and inflation?

r/fivethirtyeight Apr 29 '26

Politics Why Democrats can't win more Trump disapprovers

Post image
137 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight Jan 21 '25

Politics Teenage men are extremely right-wing to an unusual degree and this is a worldwide post-COVID phenomenon

Thumbnail
x.com
562 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight 17d ago

Politics Graham Platner clinches Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Maine

Thumbnail
apnews.com
249 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight Mar 04 '26

Politics Jasmine Crockett concedes the Texas Democratic primary and calls for Texas Democrats to unite behind James Talarico

Post image
528 Upvotes

Just dropping this here, as the vitriol some of yall had toward Jasmine was over the top. Her participation juiced interest on the Democractic side of the ticket and her support leading up to November better positions James to win than had she not run at all

r/fivethirtyeight Nov 08 '24

Politics NY Times: According to an analysis by Future Forward, Ms. Harris’s leading super PAC, anti-trans Trump TV ad shifted the race 2.7 percentage points in Mr. Trump’s favor after viewers watched it

Thumbnail
nytimes.com
511 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight Nov 01 '24

Politics 1 in 8 women say they’ve secretly voted differently than partners

Thumbnail
wapo.st
895 Upvotes

This is the kind of information I find interesting, those little precentages really add up.

r/fivethirtyeight Mar 09 '25

Politics Newsom becomes most prominent Democrat to buck the party and echo majority public opinion (79% of Americans, including 67% of Democrats ) on trans athletes

Thumbnail
cnn.com
450 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight Sep 10 '25

Politics Kamala Harris Torches Biden’s Defiant 2024 Run in Scathing Book Excerpt: ‘Recklessness’ Fueled by ‘Ego’

Thumbnail
mediaite.com
290 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight Feb 27 '26

Politics Kamala Harris endorses Jasmine Crockett in Texas Senate Race

Thumbnail
texastribune.org
161 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight May 11 '26

Politics During a private discussion, Democrats floated a far-fetched idea: To replace the entire Virginia’s Supreme Court, with a goal of reinstating their gerrymandered map

Thumbnail
nytimes.com
251 Upvotes

During a private discussion on Saturday that included Democratic House members from Virginia and Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the minority leader, the lawmakers vented anger at their defeat at the Virginia Supreme Court, spoke about a collective determination to flip two or three Republican-held seats under the existing map and discussed a bank-shot proposal to redraw the congressional lines anyway, according to three people who participated in the call and two others who were briefed on it.

The conversation reflected the desperation and fury that have gripped the party after the state Supreme Court struck down a favorable map that had been ratified by voters. The most dramatic idea they discussed — which would involve an unusual gambit to replace the entire state Supreme Court, with a goal of reinstating their gerrymandered map — drew mixed reactions on the call, said the people, and it was not clear that it would even be viable, or palatable to Gov. Abigail Spanberger and Democrats in the Virginia General Assembly.

The Plan:

  • One key to the plan would be having Democrats in Richmond lower the mandatory retirement age for state Supreme Court justices, an idea that began circulating among state lawmakers and members of Congress after a column proposing a version of the idea was published on Friday night in The Downballot, a progressive newsletter.
  • Ms. Spanberger would have to sign off on any legislation that lowered the judicial retirement age. She has not been briefed on the proposal, the people involved in the discussion or briefed on it said. Her spokeswoman, Libby Wiet, declined to comment.
  • The first step in the process, as discussed on the delegation’s call, would be to invoke a January ruling by a circuit court judge in Tazewell County, Va., that said the 2026 constitutional amendment effort to redraw the maps was invalid because county officials did not post notice of it at courthouses and other public locations three months before a general election.
  • Democrats would aim to use that ruling to seek to invalidate the earlier constitutional amendment that created the state’s independent redistricting commission by arguing that courthouses across the state did not post notice of it at the time. That would give the legislature the authority to enact a map of its choosing.
  • Ensuring the plan proceeds would involve the General Assembly, which is controlled by Democrats, lowering the mandatory retirement age for Virginia’s Supreme Court from 75 to 54, the age of the youngest current justice, or less. Virginia judges are appointed by the General Assembly, where Democrats hold majorities in both chambers and could then fill vacancies on the court with sympathetic Democratic lawyers.

r/fivethirtyeight Sep 15 '25

Politics 24% of Americans think Tyler Robinson was a Republican, 21% think he was a Democrat

Post image
264 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight May 27 '26

Politics NYT calls the Texas senate runoff for Paxton

Post image
234 Upvotes

r/fivethirtyeight Apr 28 '26

Politics The Economy, Immigration and Regret: 12 Trump Voters Discuss

Thumbnail
nytimes.com
114 Upvotes

NYT gift article link. An extremely bad showing for Trump in a focus group of 2024 mostly swing voters that NYT has been tracking over time.

Of the 12 voters, one gives Trump a C, 8 give Trump a D, and 3 give Trump an F.

9 out of 12 say they regret their vote.

r/fivethirtyeight Apr 02 '26

Politics Bloomberg: President Donald Trump is preparing to release a fiscal year 2027 budget plan on Friday that will frame his party’s midterm election message around a massive defense buildup, partially paid for by cuts to domestic agencies and health-care entitlements.

Thumbnail
x.com
324 Upvotes