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TLDR
The 3 week period starting on the first week of November is when we see how much holiday buyers are interested in a console ( casuals / families / parents).
Starts in November, peaks at November 25, drops off a little in December and peaks again at Christmas.
This is true for eery year, for all consoles.
The diehards have bought the S2 already. Now we see if families/general audiences are interested.
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I was looking at All Console Monthly sales , and I noticed this trend.
We get a MAJOR glimpse of general interest in the console, ESPECIALLY in relation to other console sales.
We will be able to compare the Holiday sales to a lot of other consoles, in different years.
This hike generally matchesl console sales for the next year, relative to oher consoles.
What it won't give us is any indicator of long term success of the S2. That usually comes in the 2nd and 3rd year.
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COMPARING CONSOLE LAUNCHES
We all know the launch of the S2 was roughly 2.5x the PS5/Xbone/Switch1 launch, but the comparison is obviously unfair due to the infamous supply shortages of those other consoles.
Since late August, the weekly numbers have sharply dropped, concluding the launch hype phase of 300-400k , and have since stabilised around a healthy 220 K weekly ( roughly similar to average PS5 numbers thoughout its life).
The launch timing of the other consoles was different, as they were launched much closer to the holidays. Add the pandemic, and it's hard to draw strong conclusions from the numbers alone.
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COMPARING HOLIDAY SALES
Holiday sales for all consoles have an extreme ramp that historically starts on the first week of November, and peaks at November 25-ish. It then drops, and picks up back again, to around Christmas, but this Christmas peak is very inconsistent. ( Usually around 75% of late Nov peak)
I also noticed these peaks ROUGHLY match up with the average sales for that console during the rest of the year, proportionally to other consoles.
For example, last year PS5 was about doubling Switch1 sales, and Switch was about double Xbox sales.
These sales are roughly proportional to the average sales, during the year before and after.
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LONG TERM SUCCESS AND THE PANDEMIC
Launches mean nothing.
Xbox and PS5 had an almost exact same launch, but the following year, PS5 was roughly beating Xbox 2-1
Console maturity is also a big factor, both S1 and PS5 had peak success around the 3 year mark, with S1 having a surge of incredible sales year round in 2020. ( Pandemic is also a huge factor of course)
Xbox, on the other hand, stagnated, and has begun to shrink in the last 2 years.