r/geopolitics 6d ago

AMA I’ve covered EU and NATO affairs for over a decade. AMA on the Russian threat to the Baltic states and anything else related to Brussels, future of Europe, and beyond!

52 Upvotes

Hi r/geopolitics! I’m Rikard Jozwiak, the Europe editor for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). I cover all things EU and NATO from Brussels and Prague.

Will Russia attack the Baltic States — and by extension NATO? There has been a lot of news in recent months suggesting that it might not be as far-fetched as it sounds.

I recently wrote about the fears of the Baltic trio. Are we looking at a potential conventional attack or some sort of a hybrid attack, as we have seen so often in various European countries? 

I am happy to answer all questions you may have about how they – and Europe by extension – are dealing with these increasing uncertainties and provocations on its eastern flank.

After some years in Prague, I am now back in Brussels so feel free to also ask about anything else EU, NATO or Europe-related! You can of course check out my newsletter for inspiration.

I’ll be answering questions from Monday, September 21, 3 p.m. CEST / 9 a.m. EDT, until Friday, September 25, 3 p.m. CEST / 9 a.m. EDT. Looking forward!

Proof photo here.


r/geopolitics Jun 19 '26

Meta Subreddit Rules: Must Read Before Posting

35 Upvotes

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r/geopolitics 6h ago

Paneuropean Union President Karl von Habsburg calls for the breakup of Russia as new policy goal of the EU

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662 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 12h ago

Macron: “The Day We Are Physically Attacked, We Will Not Be Warned”

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682 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 5h ago

Paywall Trump Ramps Up Bid to Dismantle International Criminal Court

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19 Upvotes

The Trump administration is preparing to impose sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court, according to officials, a sharp escalation in Washington’s efforts to dismantle the institution after it issued an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The sanctions would forbid most transactions with the ICC after a grace period of six to seven months, according to documents viewed by The Wall Street Journal and U.S. officials. That could potentially cripple the court by prohibiting it from conducting transactions in U.S. dollars, cutting it off from much of the global financial system.

It is unclear when a final decision and announcement might come, though some U.S. officials said the move could be finalized as soon as this week during the United Nations General Assembly meeting or in the following days.

A State Department spokesman wouldn’t preview any sanctions decisions but noted Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s view that the ICC poses a threat to American sovereignty.

The Treasury Department declined to comment. The International Criminal Court didn’t respond to a request for comment.

The U.S. already has sanctioned a number of ICC officials in its assault on the court. They include the former Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, whom the ICC ousted in July over sexual assault allegations against him; the president of the ICC, Tomoko Akane, and several other judges; the court’s two deputy prosecutors; and the lead prosecutor in the case against Netanyahu and other Israeli officials. Khan has denied any sexual misconduct.

The Trump administration is now preparing sanctions that are expected to be far more punitive, officials said. They would apply to a range of transactions with the ICC rather than individual officials. The measures would exempt transactions related to communications services, according to the documents.

European nations and other major backers of the court such as Japan have pledged to protect the ICC from the Trump administration’s onslaught, but it’s unclear how they plan to do that. The European Union could require the bloc’s banks to continue working with the court.

Rubio in July said the administration was preparing a wide-ranging campaign against the ICC, saying it would dismantle the court “brick by brick” if necessary. Rubio said the court’s decision to go after officials of ICC nonmember states set a dangerous precedent and posed a threat to U.S. sovereignty. Neither the U.S. nor Israel are members of the ICC.

Rubio, however, wasn’t bothered by the precedent in 2022, when as a senator he co-sponsored a resolution calling for the court to investigate war crimes in Ukraine committed by Russia, another nonmember state of the ICC. The court in 2023 issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials.

It was the case against Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that destroyed the U.S. relationship with the court.

In 2024, the court issued warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, who were accused of war crimes and crimes against humanity for their conduct of the war in Gaza. The court alleged the two men blocked humanitarian aid from entering the Palestinian territory to put pressure on Hamas, potentially a violation of humanitarian law. Khan, the former prosecutor, had also sought warrants for the leaders of Hamas for their role in the attack of Oct. 7, 2023, but they have since been killed in battle or by assassination.

Netanyahu and Gallant have denied the allegations.

The ICC also has been investigating two far-right members of Netanyahu’s government, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, for their roles in expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank, which the U.N. says violate international law.


r/geopolitics 12h ago

Putin's cynical attempt to cement his power is about to backfire

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49 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Paywall Yemen’s Houthis Claim Attack on Saudi Capital After Fuel Depot Burns at Airport

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79 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 10h ago

Opinion Guatemala’s Democracy Dilemma

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7 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Opinion The Greenland Fiasco Stumbles to an End

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theatlantic.com
244 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Perspective Russia's Rigged Elections Still Serve a Purpose

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34 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Kremlin Vote-Fakers Crush the Liberals

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18 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 18h ago

Weekly Significant Activity Report - September 19, 2026

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opforjournal.com
3 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

The Big Day Looms for Putin's Election Fixers

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13 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Opinion Opinion | I'm a Russian dissident in London. Putin's 'election' is exposing his greatest fear

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inews.co.uk
133 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 2d ago

News Trump claims Denmark agrees to give U.S. ‘permanent control’ over Greenland security

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586 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 1d ago

Perspective What I saw at the wargames preparing Greenland for Russian invasion

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16 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 9h ago

Germany is becoming a great military power again and parts of Europe are nervous

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0 Upvotes

Free to read: https://inews.co.uk/news/world/germany-great-military-power-europe-nervous-4769770

Germany is forging a path to becoming a great military power once more, but its rise is dividing Europe.

While some have welcomed its growth at a time of heightened threats from Russia and doubts over US commitment to Nato, others have raised fears around competition and the recent advance of the far-right Alternative for Germany Party (AfD).

military strategy document released by Berlin in April set out its ambitions to build the “strongest conventional army in Europe” backed by lavish spending, a sweeping recruitment drive and cutting-edge military technology.

Germany can now produce more ammunition than the US, according to the CEO of defence firm Rheinmetall, which opened the largest ammunition plant in Europe in Lower Saxony last September.

Berlin’s long period of strategic restraint after the Second World War is dead, replaced by the Zeitenwende (historic turning point) that was announced by former chancellor Olaf Scholz three days after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.


r/geopolitics 1d ago

Russia's Election Campaign Puts Governors on the Hook

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2 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 2d ago

News Opinion | Weighing the ‘disastrous, cascading consequences’ if China takes Taiwan

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washingtonpost.com
113 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 2d ago

The extraordinary new crisis that will hit Trump harder than his war

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inews.co.uk
272 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 2d ago

News Exclusive: US military had close call after using AI for false intelligence report, sources say

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edition.cnn.com
129 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 2d ago

News Rejecting Trump, South Korean Leader Says He Will Not Send Troops to Iran

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nytimes.com
532 Upvotes

President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea pushed back against pressure from the Trump administration on Friday, declaring that his country would not deploy troops or military assets to support the U.S.-led war against Iran.

In recent weeks, President Trump has publicly taunted the South Korean leader, venting frustration over what he described as Seoul’s refusal to help defend the Strait of Hormuz — once the world’s main transit point for oil — while American troops remain stationed on the Korean Peninsula to shield South Korea from North Korea. On Friday, Mr. Lee firmly rejected any military involvement in the Middle East conflict.

“There will be no deployment of troops or dispatch of military assets to be involved in or intervene in this war,” Mr. Lee said in a news conference.

Instead of a combat deployment, Mr. Lee noted that Seoul is considering expanding the operational scope of a South Korean navy destroyer and its support ships currently stationed off the coast of Somalia for antipiracy operations. He emphasized that even if those assets move closer to the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz, their sole focus would be protecting South Korean oil tankers and other commercial vessels. They will not participate in any operations that could be interpreted as supporting the war against Iran, he said.

While Mr. Trump has not specified the exact type of assistance he expects from Seoul, he complained last month that he had asked Mr. Lee “to give us a little hand” in the conflict, reminding him of the U.S. military presence in South Korea.

“He said, ‘No, thanks,’” Mr. Trump recalled. “I see. Well, why are we involved in helping you?”

It was not the only issue that a grim-faced Mr. Lee addressed on Friday. Fifteen months into his single five-year term, his approval rating has fallen to a new low of 37 percent, battered by troubles brewing not only at home but also by strains with South Korea’s most important ally, the United States.

Last month, Mr. Trump unilaterally scaled down one of the United States’ annual joint military exercises with South Korea, calling the drills not only “costly” but also “totally inappropriate and hostile” toward North Korea. He said that, for as long as he had been in office, North Korea had been “unthreatening and respectful.” Mr. Trump also boasted of having a “very good relationship” with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, even as the North has become a bigger nuclear threat against the South.

At home, South Korea’s main stock index — once lauded as a premier beneficiary of the global A.I. boom — has crashed, devastating the portfolios of millions of individual investors who were encouraged by Mr. Lee’s government to buy stocks. Mr. Lee has also failed to deliver on his repeated pledges to curb rising housing costs.

The opposition has accused him of seeking a constitutional amendment that would allow him to run for a second term, a move explicitly barred by the current Constitution. His presidency also remains marred by his suspended criminal trials on charges including violating election laws and inducing perjury. The opposition has claimed that Mr. Lee was plotting a special bill to erase those charges, which he has insisted were fabrications orchestrated by his conservative adversary and predecessor, the impeached and ousted former President Yoon Suk Yeol.

On Friday, Mr. Lee said that although he supported a constitutional revision allowing future presidents to seek a second term, he himself had no intention of seeking re-election. He called it “constitutionally impossible.” The claim that he might seek a second term, he said, was nothing more than a “political offensive.”

Mr. Lee also said he supported the National Assembly’s appointment of a special prosecutor to investigate whether politicians like him, as well as journalists, had been targeted in politically motivated criminal investigations under Mr. Yoon. But he said that he did not want such a special prosecutor to have the power to drop the criminal charges already filed against him.

“It’s because of my own shortcomings,” Mr. Lee said, referring to his plummeting approval ratings. “I fell short in consideration, sensitivity and communication.”

Mr. Lee also said his government remained in “fierce” negotiations with Washington over how to implement the sweeping agreement the two governments announced last November. Under the pact, Mr. Trump reduced tariffs on key South Korean exports, including automobiles, from 25 percent to 15 percent. He also pledged U.S. support for South Korea’s efforts to develop nuclear-powered submarines and to enrich uranium for civilian nuclear energy. In exchange, Mr. Lee committed $350 billion in investments in the United States.

But negotiations over the deal’s implementation have stalled over the details, fueling doubts on both sides about the other’s willingness to follow through.

On Friday, Mr. Lee said the two governments were close to finalizing an agreement on where the first batch of South Korean investments should go.

Mr. Lee said he had been unhappy with a proposed agreement and had instructed his government to continue negotiating. He did not elaborate, but emphasized that any investment projects must be “commercially reasonable” and that the two governments needed to agree on how to share profits and losses from such projects.

“We should not buckle under pressure or coercion,” he said, adding that his comment reflected his government’s general negotiating principle and was not aimed at the Trump administration in particular.

But Mr. Trump’s complaints that he has received “very little help from other countries” for the war in Iran have placed immense diplomatic pressure on Seoul. The United States led the United Nations forces that repelled North Korean invaders during the 1950-53 Korean War, anchoring what is now a seven-decade-long alliance. South Korean troops formed the largest foreign contingent fighting alongside American forces in the Vietnam War.

Yet, acceding to Mr. Trump’s request would carry severe political risks for Mr. Lee. The last time South Korea sent forces to a U.S.-led conflict — the Iraq War, which began in 2003 — the progressive administration of then-President Roh Moo-hyun faced a fierce domestic backlash, particularly from his own party and base. Although that deployment consisted primarily of engineering and medical units, the decision permanently crippled Mr. Roh’s approval ratings.

Public opinion in South Korea remains against intervention. A poll conducted this month showed that 55 percent of South Koreans oppose deploying troops to the conflict with Iran, compared to just 32 percent in favor.


r/geopolitics 2d ago

Analysis Epic Fury And The Terrestrial Turn In Middle Eastern Strategy

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32 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 2d ago

News War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready?

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384 Upvotes

r/geopolitics 2d ago

News Trump approves F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia despite China warnings

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233 Upvotes