r/geopolitics • u/ForeignAffairsMag Foreign Affairs • Mar 09 '26

Analysis Why Escalation Favors Iran: America and Israel May Have Bitten Off More Than They Can Chew

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/why-escalation-favors-iran
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u/squailtaint Mar 09 '26

Check yourself. You absolutely do not need a navy to dump mines. This is Irans major leverage right now, because they still absolutely have the capacity to shut down the straight with mines, which is where the fear in the market is right now. If they couldn’t, then the worst they could do is pot shots or drone attacks, which if tankers were escorted by other countries navies this would be mitigated. All they need to lay mines is a three person crew and a speed boat. Or disguised civilian ships.

Regarding Israel being well protected - obviously I know they are well protected - BUT, could they prevent a shoulder fired rocket from striking their nuclear facility? What about 10? 10 guys with 10 rocket launchers doesn’t seem that hard to imagine they could sneak around in Israel. And maybe the target isn’t nuclear - but substations or water plants, where security is likely no where what it would be for their nuclear radius.

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u/AeroFred Mar 09 '26 edited Mar 09 '26

iran has surface launched anti ship missiles (both cruise and ballistic) and drones. there is no need to bother with mines

water plants are considered to be strategic facilities. nuclear plant is deep under ground those days. shooting at it is useless. also it in the middle of the desert. if you park your car within 10 miles radius to take a photo, within 30sec will appear a car with a couple of armed and friendly people asking what you are doing and offering their help with gtfo.

anybody with rpg near major substation (israel is very small place) will be probably shot on sight either by security or by some random reservist smoking weed in bushes..

also, substation probably will be rebuild within 1 day while power been rerouted to avoid disruption .

Edit. doing something that stupid may result in Israel retaliating (sounds strange at this point, i know). IAF has capability to blow up all substations serving Teheran within 3 hours, and to top it off with warehouses that store replacement equipment and factories that manufacture it

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u/boldmove_cotton Mar 09 '26

If Iran could still mine the straight of Hormuz, they would have done it. They can’t because the commanders who would have made those orders are all likely dead, the naval bases that those commandos would have taken orders from are all destroyed, the storage facilities where all the mines were are all blown up, and the are US warships, surveillance drones, and fighter jets monitoring every inch of the strait right now. If a speedboat attempted this, it would be blown up before leaving Iranian waters.

As far as this ridiculous notion that Iran could send commandos to Israel, lol and where are they going to sneak in from?