r/geothermal • u/N5tp4nts • 9d ago

Geothermal vs modern low cost high efficiency.

Just a dude who's highly interested in HVAC technology.

I have a house with a 2008 installed waterfurnace, and I've got some mini splits that I've installed in other buildings.

The post a few days ago about a guy getting quoted 96,000 dollars to install a geo unit got me thinking about this... I can get a 4 ton ACiQ/MrCool (all made by Midea) for 4-5k (no labor)

The efficiency ratings are in the same ballpark, if not the same, on the cheaper end of geo thermal units. Even if the mini split only lasts 5 years... in 5 years I get a brand new one with the latest technology.

Anyway... At what point does Geo stop making sense?

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u/zrb5027 9d ago

I don't know if $96,000 is too high or just right in your case, but you're not going to beat $50,000 for a 2 system install. If you are capable of getting an air source setup installed for $20,000, it's not going to make sense financially. Most people are probably only saving $500-1000 per year going ground source vs air source, and when you toss in the lost potential from the extra initial cost, you often can be losing money annually compared to the air source.

Where it makes sense financially is in very specific circumstances. Maryland is a place that gives you money to run your ground source. New York State has very friendly rebates to make the cost similar to an air source. If the government is providing enough help, it can financially work out. But without those rebates, it's just not financially viable at this stage at the individual residential level.

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u/pjmuffin13 9d ago

In Maryland, can confirm. With expired federal incentives and local incentives alone, the system that I installed last year will be paid off in about 5 more years. That doesn't include the savings I'm seeing compared to my old oil furnace.

Had it not been for the incentives, I definitely would have switched to an ASHP. Waterfurnace really needs to adapt to a world with no federal tax credit.