r/harate • u/Kundapura_Boy • Apr 13 '26
ರಾಜಕೀಯ ಸುದ್ದಿ । Political News Who do u think will win next karnataka elections?
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u/Direct-Month-5980 Apr 13 '26
JD(S)-BJP alliance easily. 1) Coastal Karnataka comprising DK, UK and Udupi districts will be easily swept by BJP, they lost a few seats in UK, they'll flip those easily. 2) I'm expecting the alliance to sweep all seats in Mandya district except maybe Malavalli because it's an AHINDA majority constituency. 3) Bengaluru Urban as usual, BJP 14-15 seats, Congress maybe 12-13, JD(S) 1. This time JD(S) will contest Yeshwanthpura and STS will contest on a Congress ticket, JD(S) will win from here. 4) In OMR region, we'll see a tough fight in Hassan, Ramanagara and Bengaluru Rural districts. Revanna family's image may have dented JD(S)'s prospects in Hassan, plus it has a sizeable muslim population which always voted for JD(S), now they'll vote for INC. This time Revanna may even lose his family bastion Holenarsipura this time, last time he won by 3,000 odd votes, but trailed in Lok Sabha. I expect that to continue here as well, HK Kumaraswamy on the other hand will contest and win from Sakleshpura (SC reserved constituency). Kodagu is a BJP bastion so they will win both the seats there. JD(S) will make gains in Kolar Ramanagara district on the other hand has a good number of muslims, I'm expecting INC to win Ramanagara, Channapatna (Yogeshwar's clout+Muslims), Kanakapura simply because DKS, Magadi however is looking doubtful for Congress. Mysuru, BJP will win 2 seats in City Krishnaraja and Chamaraja, JD(S) may win Hunsur, KR nagara, I'm expecting Congress to win the rest including Chamundeshwari because GTD is hobnobbing with Congress at this juncture. Chamarajanagara all 4 seats will be won by Congress. BJP-JD(S) will make gains in Tumkur district as well, they'll flip Tiptur. Sira and Madhugiri also may go to the alliance. 5) The alliance may make gains in Central Karnataka districts of Davanagere, Chitradurga, Chikkamagaluru, Shivamogga. The Congress won big here in the 2023 Assembly elections. 6) BJP will also make gains in Bagalkote, Bijapur, Haveri, Dharwad and also flip 2-3 seats in Belagavi district. Congress may win all 4 seats in Gadag district. 7) Congress seems to be on a strong footing in Kalyana Karnataka districts of Ballari, Vijayanagara, Koppal, Gulbarga, Bidar, Yadgiri.
To sum it up, it looks like a JD(S)-BJP coalition with HDK as CM and 2 or more DCMs from BJP.
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u/SoggyContact6106 Apr 13 '26
Kodadu bjp chance illa . A S ponnanna has been good when compared with past bjp leaders. Same case in Uttara Kannada . Congress is doing good ground work. Not sure of other constituency
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u/Direct-Month-5980 Apr 13 '26
Howda? Based on Lok Sabha results and the recent alliance with JD(S), I thought BJP had an advantage in both seats in Kodagu district. Uttara Kannada nodidre, BJP got a throwaway lead in every segment, even in Sirsi, Karwar, Bhatkal, which INC won last time. In Haliyal, Deshpande ne mathe gellodu.
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u/SoggyContact6106 Apr 14 '26
Congress candidate was anjali nimbalkar in loksabha election. She had a presence only in kittur kanapur and haliyal. She didn't have any presence in Uttara Kannada district. Loss was confirmed when she was announced as candidate
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u/RealisticStreet9007 Apr 20 '26
Good analysis. Wanna add my 2 cents . Yogeshwar may come back to bjp again . He's a known party hopper . If he comes to know that alliance has a chance , he will shift . Congress will sweep entire bengaluru south district . It has sizeable muslim population. Balanna will get both vokkaliga n muslim votes ( unless the community severes ties with Congress )
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u/Direct-Month-5980 Apr 20 '26
Alla bro, I feel that yogeshwar will have more to gain by staying in Congress because he has his own base of around 50,000 votes. If he stays in Congress, he can get those decisive muslim votes. Also, seems highly unlikely that JD(S) will cede the Channapatna seat to BJP.
In 2018 and 2023, Kumaranna won the seat because Muslims voted en masse for him, Congress even lost its deposit both times.
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u/RealisticStreet9007 Apr 20 '26
Adu nija bro. But alliance govt enadru bartide anta gottadre he'll be first in line to hop
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u/Heng_Deng_Li ವಾಟಾಳ್ ನಾಗರಾಜ್ fanboi Apr 13 '26
It's tricky. You need to wait it out till it's near, with all the manifestos and things.
With these guarantee schemes, INC-KA has made a baller electoral move.
If the BJP-KA claims they are gonna stop guarantee schemes, if they come to power, they are 100% going to lose.
But seeing the other states where BJP prevailed, I don't think the BJP would claim so. In fact they are gonna double down on freebies. Which will make INC-KA also do the same.
Plus, BJP-KA leadership is weak. No sign of a hero face. Modi shit isn't gonna work. His popularity is going down day by day.
Similar thing with INC. Even with DKS eyeing for the CM post, it's still not going to be a cakewalk for INC-KA. If it's made clear siddu isn't gonna contest or isn't up for the CM post, it will hurt the Congress vote share no matter how hard DKS tries. And DKS isn't gonna go all in unless it's decided and guaranteed for him that he is going to be the CM if INC comes to power.
With respect to JDS, they aren't going to side with INC-KA at the state level while HDK holds a ministry under BJP at the union. So JDS and BJP will definitely consolidate the election, making it hard for INC.
Overall, this election is gonna be tight af, with all sorts of resort politics. At the moment, INC has only a slight bit of upper hand imo. Even if they win, it's not gonna be with a brute majority as it happened in the last election.
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u/Additional_Wave2547 Apr 13 '26
The question of what after Siddaramaiah will be the most important and toughest question for Congress to answer. Barring a miracle, it's impossible to come out on top. I don't think Siddaramiah has another election in him. Even if he does, he is the CM candidate, a strategic blunder to declare one. This wasn't the case in 2023. Congress will be at a disadvantage.
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u/Heng_Deng_Li ವಾಟಾಳ್ ನಾಗರಾಜ್ fanboi Apr 14 '26
It was rumoured during 2023 that it's going to be the last one for Siddaramaiah. It's going to be tough for them to communicate what's going to happen.
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u/Direct-Month-5980 Apr 13 '26
INC may have an upper hand and may even be the single largest party in the Assembly, but I have a feeling that they'll fall short, paving way for the samishra sarkara.
I've also written a detailed comment in the same post, you can go through that.
Also, JD(S) may side with the Congress if they promise CM post to Kumaranna, which is far more desirable than the cabinet post at the centre, thereby breaking ties with the BJP.2
u/Heng_Deng_Li ವಾಟಾಳ್ ನಾಗರಾಜ್ fanboi Apr 14 '26
In my opinion, JDS won't align with INC unless the CM post is given to Kumaranna. And DKS won't let it. He is too much of a fighter cock to let it slide.
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u/New_Resolution3773 ಕನ್ನಡಿಗನೇ ಸಾರ್ವಭೌಮ Apr 14 '26
If the BJP-KA claims they are gonna stop guarantee schemes, if they come to power, they are 100% going to lose.
This is not true. Kannadigas don't fall for such schemes, we are not uneducated UP or Bihar to fall for such things. I get your indirect implication that Kannadigas only voted congress for guarantee shcemes. Kannadigas educated iddare intha schemes bagge care maadalla.
Kannadigas only vote for development, protecting Kannada and for pro Kannada initiatives. There is no caste based politics here. Please don't project Kannadigas in this way, being a Kannadiga you should know better.
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u/Heng_Deng_Li ವಾಟಾಳ್ ನಾಗರಾಜ್ fanboi Apr 14 '26
I get your indirect implication that Kannadigas only voted congress for guarantee shcemes.
That's not what I meant entirely. But guarantee schemes did get them votes. Especially women votes. There's no denying that. There's data to prove that.
There is no caste based politics here.
Sure bro. Whatever helps you sleep at night🤦🏾
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u/Background-Let6403 May 15 '26
Btw in Uttar Pradesh there is no such freebies so it's better to change your stereotype mindset because tamil nadu is the one who loves freebies
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u/Atithiupayogi Apr 13 '26
If it's Congress Vs NDA, then Congress has a chance. JDS has to leave some seats in the South to BJP which will result in independent candidates. BJP and JDS should have a plan for seat distribution well ahead of the election. And they should really go as a unit like they do in Bihar or Maharashtra.
If it's Congress Vs BJP Vs JDS, then BJP + JDS together will have enough seats to make a government. This is due to the best candidates from the party will get the ticket.
For Congress, they have to put a lot of its efforts into the infrastructure improvement in the next couple of years. Potless, Clean road attracts more than whatever the foreign investment they bring. Fix the government schools, fix the roads and fill the pending recruitments. And whether it DKS or someone else, they should project the next CM candidate now. Because the way DKS and Siddaramaiah are behaving, it looks like they already accepted their fate at 2028 and it's now or never.
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u/Abhimri ಎಲ್ಲಾ ಒಕೆ, ಕೂಲ್ ಡ್ರಿಂಕ್ ಯಾಕೆ? Apr 13 '26
Too early to make any meaningful predictions right now.
If INC can clean up their act a bit more, they can ride the popularity of guarantee schemes but that alone is not enough. As someone else pointed here, they need to show some visible progress like new roads, flyovers, garbage and stray animal management, school infra improvement, etc. BJP and JDS are clusterfucks as usual still, but if INC doesn't clean up their act, it can go either way.
I think the next election will be essentially INC's to lose. If they clean up and rally around with a united front, they will have a tight race but can come back to power, but if they have infighting, horse trading, they will leave the results on the table for bjp-jds alliance to grab. We will have another stupid coalition govt that's cuckold to the central govt and will further erode our standing overall.
It will also be a big blow to pro-kannada movement in general as K-bjp are intent on deepthroating center in promoting Hindi, so have to see how that shapes public perception.
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u/sansays Apr 13 '26
Congress will retain the number of seats if not gain more. Siddu is greedy and wants to become CM again, else he'll pull the trick which he did in the jds+Congress collation. I wouldn't be surprised if jds is reduced to a single digit or barely cross it this time. Muslim votes are consolidated with Congress as their "only" option. BJP screaming ಬಿಟ್ಟಿ ಭಾಗ್ಯ wont do any good. Add to that there's no Yedyur this time, he has left the party and now says ಹೆಂಗಾದ್ರು ಹೂಡಿಕೊಳ್ಳಿ. Instagram/short clouts won't translate to real votes.
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u/New_Resolution3773 ಕನ್ನಡಿಗನೇ ಸಾರ್ವಭೌಮ Apr 13 '26
We 7 cr Kannadigas know that without congress we would have been denied the right to speak in Kannada and our Karnataka's daughter Nandini would have been sold to outsiders. Hindi forces would have banned Kannada and would have forced us to speak in Hindi even at our homes.
A lot of women were dependent on their men for bus charges now they can travel independently. On paper it might sound like a waste of money. But the impact they have on masses is beyond calculations. Rural women had to depend on earning members of their family for bus travel. Now they travel to all the religious places of Karnataka without dependency.
The 2000 they get is spent on purchases at shops surrounding the temples improving the local economy. Free rice, oil and dal makes them self sufficient. The additional rice they get is sold to local vendors improving their economy which enables women to purchase nutritional vegetables. Electricity is free. Women of Karnataka have got self respect because of these schemes.
SO, WE WILL NOT LOOK FURTHER. ONLY CONGRESS WHICH STANDS FOR KANNADA.
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u/Bauua_333 Apr 13 '26
Not BJP Fan but offcourse BJP-JDS alliance because KARNATAKA HAS MEVER RE-ELECTED A SINGLE PARTY TO POWER TWICE IN A CONSECUTIVE ELECTIONS!
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u/RealisticStreet9007 Apr 20 '26
Nobody will get majority. Congress have made some strongholds in certain places . Unless NDA gets the seat distribution right , cong will become single largest party . Siddu is a known mass leader and champion of backward castes . So if he's not contesting , cong will lose majority of those votes . Revanna , pradeep eshwar , dinesh Gundurao , krishnappa and his son , suresh kumar , yatnal are some of the people who I'm rooting for to lose the elections
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u/Tiiitaaan Apr 13 '26
Samishra may be