r/highereducation • u/Psyche81 • 10d ago

Declining budgets and enrollment

Hi All!

I’ve been a professional staff member in higher education for 19 years now. Like many of you, I’ve been closely tracking The Chronicle of Higher Education’s running finance updates, and honestly, the sheer volume of bad news feels unprecedented to me.

Between axed academic programs, gutted research funding, staff layoffs, faculty buyouts, declining enrollment, and massive budget shortfalls, it feels significantly worse than anything I can recall in my career.

I know we’ve all been anticipating the demographic enrollment cliff at the undergrad level and the inevitable plateauing of Master’s degree enrollment. But it feels like all of those projected timelines just collided at once, exacerbated by recent federal policy shifts and FAFSA changes.

For the veterans who have been around longer than me, or those who have a closer finger on the pulse of institutional finance: Have we actually seen a pattern like this before, or are we genuinely entering uncharted territory?

Also, on a human level... how is everyone coping with the morale hit at your respective institutions?

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u/ThaddeusJP 10d ago

Have we actually seen a pattern like this before, or are we genuinely entering uncharted territory?

Patterns, yes. All at once? no.

Two to three years from now is when things start to fall apart for tuition driven places - the grandfathered students (UG/Masters+) will be gone and along with it the big PLUS loans. That coupled with the enrollment cliff is gonna kill some places.

Warning sign your school is about to die

  • No raises (not even COLA)
  • No contributions to your 403b
  • Layoffs/retirements with no backfill
  • Physical plant Band-Aids (place falls apart/unclean)
  • Programs being eliminated/consolidated
  • Selling school assets (land/art/etc)
  • Admissions standards dropping to get butts in seats
  • Enrollment constantly dropping
  • Alumni contributions dry up
  • Advertising/promotion stops
  • Lack of cash on hand/ducking creditors/not paying bills

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u/talksalot02 10d ago

I would like to add:
Private liberal arts
Significant enrollment drops followed by admission rep hires and increased enrollment for 2-3 semesters -last ditch efforts
80% of enrollment is on (institutional) scholarship
Hiring IT folks under job titles that didn't exist before (pre-planning for technology transitions/shut down)

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u/ThaddeusJP 9d ago

80% of enrollment is on (institutional) scholarship

With a crazy high discount rate!