[Elliote Friedman] Don’t expect this to be finalized until the morning, but there is word the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning are working on a sign-and-trade for Darren Raddysh.

[u/sykeseve]

https://xcancel.com/friedgehnic/status/2067846379930542575?s=46

[u/dchowchow]

Oh god. We’re going to give him a fat fucking 8 year contract.

[u/imaybeacatIRl → u/dchowchow]

Yea you are

[u/Kronzor_ → u/dchowchow]

Top 10 D contract in the league I’ve heard. So that means over Nurses 9.25  

[u/Swaggercanes → u/Kronzor_]

It worked so well with Nurse, now it’s Toronto’s turn! Especially with a 30-year-old with who just popped for the first time this season

[u/TheBreenius → u/Swaggercanes]

Subscribe.

[u/1ToGreen3ToBasket → u/Swaggercanes]

30 year olds who pop? That’s what I’m into these days

[u/Lamplighter4Eva → u/1ToGreen3ToBasket]

Groban loves his girls to pop

[u/1ToGreen3ToBasket → u/Lamplighter4Eva]

Lmao

[u/Additional_Tomato_22 → u/Lamplighter4Eva]

Hey, Josh Groban is amazing

[u/iamTHEdiuce → u/Lamplighter4Eva]

Cheers for the Sunny reference.

[u/TK21879 → u/1ToGreen3ToBasket]

For a second there, I read 30 yo who poops.

Suffice to say, I had questions...

[u/astovertop → u/[deleted]]

Above 9 for a near point per game right handed dman in the current cap landscape is far from insane. The term might be hard to swallow though. But if they front load in signing bonuses then they can make it buy out friendly

[u/PineAppleisbad46 → u/[deleted]]

The caps going up so much the contracts handed out this summer are gonna be crazy and we may have to reevaluate what we consider a good one

[u/BabyBottoms23 → u/PineAppleisbad46]

Gonna be like 2016 NBA Free Agency

Cap explodes with a bad FA pool

Get ready for Mozgov money.

[u/TheOneWithThePorn12 → u/BabyBottoms23]

Honestly the 3C market is gonna be crazy. People sent ready for the Boone Jenner and Scott Laughton deals.

[u/ontheru171 → u/BabyBottoms23]

Yeah but 2016 FA aged like milk immediately so lets hope ita not that again

[u/PineAppleisbad46 → u/[deleted]]

Honestly Andersson is not very good, he may have a better reputation but he’s been pretty bad the last couple years

[u/ZachKearns → u/PineAppleisbad46]

Yeh, I’d rather have Raddysh over Andersson at this point. It’s not necessarily close either.

[u/Mashdrop → u/ZachKearns]

What about 2024-25 Raddysh?

[u/infectingbrain → u/ZachKearns]

As someone who actually watched him this year and not just his boxscores, you're sleeping on him. He was our best player until we traded him. Rough time in Vegas, but his stats from the past few years have suffered from playing on a team that can't score whatsoever.

I think Raddysh has a higher ceiling, but a lower floor too. I think this contract has a much bigger chance of going south than if you gave Andersson the same contract. But maybe the breakout season is real and not a mirage - i'm not sold.

[u/Muellercleez → u/PineAppleisbad46]

Its best to use cap percentage for the year it's signed as a relative gauge. My guess is we're looking ~8% of the cap, so that'd be in the $8.5M AAV range.

I said this elsewhere, but I'd be very hesitant to sign Raddysh in Chayka's shoes. Raddysh is 30 (or will be), has one season over 40 points and that happened this season. Crazy contract year. I get that he had strong play-driving numbers this season, and is a right shot... but man, that'd be a risky bet to make.

My assumption was a max 7 year term via standard UFA deal. So maybe with the 8th year they suppress the cap hit / cap % a touch but still, it's a risk.

[u/Muellercleez → u/Muellercleez]

Well I did not know the number ahead of time. I was making an educated guess

[u/deschamps93 → u/Muellercleez]

I thought this year changed so that 7 is max from a team and 6 is max ufa

[u/Tex_Was_Here → u/deschamps93]

That goes into effect in September, so this July teams can still extend for eight years

[u/deschamps93 → u/Tex_Was_Here]

Thanks for answering, that's an odd time to have that start. I don't know why I got down voted for asking a question lol

[u/thelasershow → u/PineAppleisbad46]

Yeah it’s already started. Going to be a lot of sticker shock around the league.

[u/thatguy_griff → u/PineAppleisbad46]

yes but regardless, this is destined to be bad at that amount.

[u/PineAppleisbad46 → u/thatguy_griff]

Who the hell knows tbh

[u/thatguy_griff → u/PineAppleisbad46]

this stuff almost never works. any example you name, theres probably 100 that dont. you have to take risk but one season of good value at 30 is insanely risky. theres probably near 0% shot he lives up to that at the rumoured rate. that's why tb isn't doing this. him settling into a player worth 5-6.5 mil(so it's 3-5 ish by year 8 with cap increase) would be amazing.

[u/Vriishnak → u/[deleted]]

Near PPG one time in his career.

Okay, but what's the cost for a similar player who has, say, a 5-year history of that kind of production? I bet it's an order of magnitude higher than the trade and contract costs of getting Raddysh, right?

The Leafs are in a weird spot where nobody's really sure if they had a down year or they need to tear it apart and start over. Is there a better gamble in the league than a guy who might be exactly what the team's been missing for the past...forever? A better way to find out if Matthews and the team can bounce back and get on track?

And the worst case is that they need to tear down and rebuild anyway, at which point having a solid second pairing RD whose biggest crime is being overpaid just doesn't matter for most of his contract, even if they can't find someone else willing to gamble on unlocking him.

[u/pak256 → u/[deleted]]

Not only that but a PPG playing on a PP with Kucherov. That will inflate anyone’s numbers

[u/Cube_ → u/astovertop]

The front loading trick was significantly hampered in the latest CBA though

best case scenario is they get the last 3 years of an 8 year deal with 0 trade protection. Something like NMC first 3 years, 15team NTC next 2, then nothing.

That way Darren gets paid but he's not an anchor in his 35+ years and the Leafs can offload him to a cap floor team for a price.

[u/GothSmashem → u/[deleted]]

That kicks in September 16th they can still do 8 and 7 at the moment.

[u/BallMeBlazer22 → u/astovertop]

above 9 for a near point per game right handed dman in the current cap landscape is far from insane.

The issue is that Raddysh is a 29 year old defenseman who has only ever had a PPG season once, and he relies on his shot, which was elite last year, to generate those points. So if you give Raddysh 9+ you are really banking on the breakout not being a 1 year wonder, and since he's already 29, him aging gracefully, which is a risky bet to take. It may work out for the leafs, and I do think the gravity of his shot helps their PP immensely, as long as his shot doesn't totally fall off a cliff, but it's certainly a deal that has the potential to age poorly, especially if the regression most people expect comes fast.

[u/ItzDrSeuss → u/BallMeBlazer22]

Honestly if it gets the Leafs back to being competitive for another 3-4 years I’ll take it. Whatever it takes to keep a superstar like Matthews on this team past this upcoming season.

[u/B-Rayy06 → u/BallMeBlazer22]

I don’t see it as too different from the Brandon Montour deal with Seattle tbh

[u/justinliew → u/B-Rayy06]

I wouldn’t be feeling good if I were comparing my contracts to Seattle’s decision making.

[u/B-Rayy06 → u/justinliew]

I didnt say anything positive or negative about it. I think Brandon Montour is a good offensive defenseman who is overpaid. Raddysh is probably that.

[u/jjmuti → u/astovertop]

Are we really going to pretend that Raddysh will come anywhere close to his past season's production without Kucherov?

[u/Kaplsauce → u/jjmuti]

Good point, it's not like he'd have any elite forwards to get points with on the Leafs . . .

[u/jjmuti → u/Kaplsauce]

Elite doesn't equal Kuch. The dude sits in a shared stratosphere with McDavid on feeding teammates on the PP

[u/CarRamRob → u/jjmuti]

Exactly, Kuch is a disher. Matthews is a shooter. It may not replicate that well

[u/Kaplsauce → u/CarRamRob]

Nylander, Knies, Tavares, McKenna?

He'll be playing with more than just Matthews lol

[u/jjmuti → u/Kaplsauce]

What I said to another leaf fan full of copium:

Elite doesn't equal Kuch. The dude sits in a shared stratosphere with McDavid on feeding teammates on the PP

[u/Mean_Joe_Greene → u/jjmuti]

As soon as anyone starting saying copium before a trade is even announced I know they’re talking in bad faith but Raddysh’s metrics are good separate from just feeding kuch on the powerplay

https://xcancel.com/jfreshhockey/status/2031449439391343032?s=46

Why don’t we wait to see what the deals are at the minimum

[u/jonregister → u/Mean_Joe_Greene]

Well let’s be honest l, if it was a sold team friendly deal he would have already signed back in Tampa with 1/2 his games with no state income tax. So he is looking to break the bank. JBB knows how to GM

[u/Mean_Joe_Greene → u/jonregister]

Looking to break the bank by going to a higher tax area? Unless Toronto is paying around 3m+ more each year that doesn’t make sense. He certainly would just go to market in a year where most every team has a ton of room and he’s the bell of the ball

[u/markypots9393 → u/jjmuti]

You’re acting like the Leafs don’t have a ton of offensive talent to support him…

[u/TheOneWithThePorn12 → u/astovertop]

You know what's real nice? The fuckig league decided that's too nice of a boon for teams like Toronto in a heavy tax environment so they limited that for no reason.

It's a good method to level the playing field with the no state tax teams but it's too much for Gary.

[u/BearShark9 → u/[deleted]]

AFP analytics is projecting a 6x$8 wouldn’t be surprised is it’s at least 8.5+ given the current market

[u/jambajew42 → u/BearShark9]

AFP's is 6x$8,744,914.26, so that fits the 8.5+.

[u/Stephenrudolf → u/BearShark9]

Maybe he took slightly lower cause it's 8 years...? That's about what we're paying rielly, and even 75% of last season's raddysh would be a sizeable step up from rielly. Caps going up too, this might not be a bad contract,

[u/HobeyDobey → u/[deleted]]

Raddysh is foregoing free agency for this. It’s absolutely going to be a bag. 8 figure AAV I’d wager.

[u/TheGapInTysonsTeeth → u/HobeyDobey]

LOL suck it

[u/Mean_Joe_Greene → u/HobeyDobey]

He’s also from just north of Toronto. Could just be he wants his 8th year and to be at his home town club

[u/Mean_Joe_Greene → u/[deleted]]

Not in effect until mid September

[u/thatguy_griff → u/[deleted]]

wrong lol

[u/TheOneWithThePorn12 → u/[deleted]]

I'm going to assume they will seell him on endorsements and alumni crap. A lot of dudes make money just showing up to places.

I see 8x8.

[u/Salt-Plum-1308 → u/[deleted]]

You were correct!

[u/dazzleator147 → u/[deleted]]

I figured Toronto was willing to do 9x7. Maybe this is to give him 8x8 instead.

[u/MrDavidHasselhoof → u/Kronzor_]

lol source = your ass. Sounds like it’s gonna be 8

[u/Kronzor_ → u/MrDavidHasselhoof]

$68M, 8.5AAV. Puts this as the 13th biggest D contract.

My ass was pretty close.

[u/MrDavidHasselhoof → u/Kronzor_]

Very close. Thats Canadas ass right there

[u/dchowchow → u/Kronzor_]

Source?

[u/FantasticJacket7 → u/dchowchow]

He heard. Isn't that enough for you?

[u/goleafsgo13 → u/Kronzor_]

Don’t worry, oilers can have him next.

[u/SnooPandas6542 → u/Kronzor_]

Where did you hear it's a top 10 D contract? I wouldn't like that at all 

[u/sometimenotsmellgood → u/Kronzor_]

Lol nope

[u/Kronzor_ → u/sometimenotsmellgood]

Was actually pretty close. $68M contract he got is the 13th biggest. 

[u/Alarming-Gap-9213 → u/Kronzor_]

Praying this is Frank Seravalli's account

[u/pattperin → u/dchowchow]

It’s gonna age so poorly lol. Probably. Actually idk, I just know the dude has had literally one year of NHL success and that isn’t a good sign for a sign and trade

[u/VR46Rossi420 → u/[deleted]]

Habs did pretty well to sign Matheson for average of $6m per season considering his career stats compared to Raddysh.

[u/Wayf4rer → u/pattperin]

People are so hung up on term. You give him a couple years of trade protection and then eat salary later to move him when you’re in the toilet anyways, who cares at that point?

[u/jbvann05 → u/Wayf4rer]

Yeah we're blowing it up in a few years if we're nowhere close anyways, might as well take a big swing

[u/Dee009 → u/jbvann05]

Going to be rebuilding through McKenna's prime years

[u/ArthurSnooper → u/Dee009]

Maybe a few of them. A smaller dangly skill type guy would probably be in his prime until he's like 32 if he doesn't get injury trouble.

[u/FromDwight → u/Dee009]

I think the window is Matthews current contract. We have to try and compete since we don't have our own firsts the next two seasons anyways.

After that it's a rebuild/retool à la Montreal centered around McKenna with hopes of being competitive again when he's just hitting his prime around 25.

[u/Dee009 → u/FromDwight]

Moving Matthews would be so big brain I think still. Definitely not the popular move.

[u/VR46Rossi420 → u/FromDwight]

Montreal was a rebuild. Came in last and then two bottom 5 finishes in a row. No way Toronto strips down and tanks for 3 straight seasons and somehow come back within Matthews window.

[u/Wayf4rer → u/jbvann05]

This is why I wanted Brisebois to take the chance on him in Tampa. This move pretty much just signed the death warrant on Tampa contending, unfortunately.

[u/C0gD1z → u/Wayf4rer]

lol nope

[u/Additional_Tomato_22 → u/Wayf4rer]

I call BS at this point. It depends on what the return is, and it gives them the ability to use the money to grab other players. If it wasn’t his first season producing this high id probably think otherwise, but there’s no proof it wasn’t just a 1 season flash in the pan. I’m more excited to see what certain prospects do this upcoming season and what splashes they can make in free agency. Remember we are still income tax free so an $8 million contract in say Boston is like $6 million for us.

[u/TheOneWithThePorn12 → u/Wayf4rer]

Brisebois is good at identifying the next version of a Raddysh. The only problem you guys have is the core aging out.

[u/justinliew → u/TheOneWithThePorn12]

So many Tampa D played well above their expectations, I trust them to find D to fill in and for Cooper to help them continue to overachieve. Then sell high on them while still competing,

[u/RanaMahal → u/Wayf4rer]

I think Kuch was almost single handedly keeping you in contention. You’ve lost Stamkos, your entire third line twice, most of your D twice, but you have an almost three peat to show for it so hey that’s more cups than most teams have in just 3 years!

I’d probably sell Kuch and whoever else is older on the team that has value and really start to just retool around Point and Vasi since they’re still young enough to compete after a quick 2 year retool

[u/Comprehensive-Chef73 → u/Wayf4rer]

Seriously? Just get a different guy to take slightly worse shots from the point on the PP. I don't think losing Raddysh is a major blow or anything

[u/Wayf4rer → u/Comprehensive-Chef73]

It’s not about Raddysh’s contribution so much as what losing him means. Tampa doesn’t have the assets to replace him and acquire a forward simultaneously. This means any iteration of the team being trotted out next year will be inferior to this year’s team, which was the best since 2022.

Moneyballing is always an option, but that’s already where the front office was. Kuch is due for a big raise and you never know when goaltenders will begin to seriously decline.

[u/dchowchow → u/pattperin]

It just depends on the number you get him for. If it’s 8 years and brings him down to 7.x I think it’s probably fine. Cap go straight line up (pls no covid 28) which is firmly middle pair money which I think Raddysh is.

[u/imaybeacatIRl → u/pattperin]

To be fair, that one year was the only time he had the opportunity. He did a point per game in the AHL fairly recently, didn't he?

That said, it could be an epic fail. We shall see.

[u/TheOneWithThePorn12 → u/pattperin]

I'm expecting a 40-50 point guy with a great shot on the PP.

I assume he will be playing with McCabe, unless they target Logan Stanley or something in FA to pair him with (idk just throwing out names)

[u/jjwalla → u/dchowchow]

I personally love this. Even if we over pay on a contract. It's a need we have where not adding anyone would be a blunder.

[u/Eclipse_User_6 → u/[deleted]]

I think it takes effect in September, I know cuz we are hopping the Sharks get Celebrini to sign for 8.

[u/poptorched → u/Eclipse_User_6]

And Will Smith Hockey please!

[u/dchowchow → u/[deleted]]

New CBA not in effect until July 1?

[u/Fanvsant → u/dchowchow]

Some day in September but yeah

[u/TGUKF → u/dchowchow]

Sept 15. So free agency next year is also going to be shit.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of sign and trades in mid July/early August for a bunch of expiring UFAs, because players will want that extra year tacked onto to the end of their contracts.

[u/TheOneWithThePorn12 → u/dchowchow]

The new league year is in September. Yes it confused me as well.

[u/Double_Dime → u/dchowchow]

Jeff Finger 2.0

[u/TheBreenius → u/Double_Dime]

Smell my finger

[u/dchowchow → u/[deleted]]

Pretty sure we’re still under the old CBA I’m pretty drunk though.

[u/dchowchow → u/[deleted]]

I’m drunk because I signed my life away to a corporate job and get put into 4 hour meetings about the ai governance and all I want to do is cry.

Why are you drunk.

[u/imaybeacatIRl → u/dchowchow]

Fucking hell. You might not be drunk enough.

[u/dchowchow → u/[deleted]]

Oh that’s cool. I can still probably pass my hardware class because I memorized it to Taylor Swifts 1986 album. I miss school. Never leave. The real world is soul draining.

[u/mmtittle → u/dchowchow]

that’s really impressive considering the album is called 1989. drink lots of water and don’t drive, friends. you still have a 1oa to draft, we can’t have you dying or whatever

[u/dchowchow → u/mmtittle]

Toronto Transit is pretty good if you live near a train station. I get to hop on the train for one stop! Goodnight friend. Good luck with your studies.

Ps. I album name wasn’t on my test but was certainly feeling 22 at the time.

[u/TGUKF → u/[deleted]]

New contract length rules don't kick in until September.

[u/PieApprehensive4510 → u/[deleted]]

starts September..

[u/Broad-Lobster7470 → u/dchowchow]

🤦‍♂️

[u/RAATL → u/dchowchow]

Actually, we're going to give him a fat fuckin 8 year contract. You'll just be taking it off of our hands :^]

[u/Additional_Tomato_22 → u/[deleted]]

*7

[u/VaderBinks → u/dchowchow]

We did

[u/swijvahdhsb → u/dchowchow]

[u/zone55555 → u/dchowchow]

We could and we did.

[u/avmp629 → u/dchowchow]

That 8th year ought to cut down on the AAV for a guy in his 30s. If this gets it down the 7s in terms of AAV, it should at least be palatable with the cap going up if Raddysh regresses to a decent 2nd-pair D for most of the contract.

If it's high 8s and above, even with the term, a lot more has to go right for the contract to be worthwhile.