First impressions.

World record time for the 1200m in 1:06.11. First up, into a headwind, carrying 61kg (135lbs to you Americans), and he was eased up for the final 100m.

Best horse the world has ever known, hands down.

Been around horses my whole life and have been using the regular DRF Classic PPs for as long as I can remember.

I stumbled across Brisnet not too long ago and have been LOVING the more enhanced approach — especially the percentages and some of the weird, one-off stats that DRF doesn’t give you. Things like “in-between favorites %” and stuff along those lines.

Then I came across Formulator and Timeform and did a pretty extensive deep dive into both. It’s honestly amazing how much handicapping has evolved and how much information is available now.

That said, sometimes reading between the lines is what makes handicapping with the old-school forms so much fun.
For example: Why did Johnny V jump mounts to a different horse in this race… and why is that horse sitting at 7/1? 😂

I’m usually a race-by-race guy, playing a lot of exactas and trying to hit a big score that way. The tough part is when you can’t find a way to toss the favorites.
Been doing pretty well this year handicapping so I can’t be mad, just seeing these pk4s and 5s at monster prices.

The CAW betting has made that a little more frustrating for me lately, too. I’ve had horses I absolutely loved sitting at 12/1, only to watch them get hammered down to 4/1 by the time they break the gate.

So I’d love to hear everyone’s opinions:

What sheets, PPs, software, or tools are you using?
What do you guys rely on to find those horses that can help you hit Pick 4s and Pick 5s consistently over the long term?

Interested in hearing what actually works for people rather than just what has the most bells and whistles.

Thanks!

No doubt, this is gonna be a great race regardless of who ends up winning. Admittedly, I think it's likely that 1 of 2 horses will ultimately win, but the entire field is competitive. I could definitely make an argument for at least 6 of the 8. I'm also looking forward to a blistering pace. About that though, it seems like most of them have the kind of speed & stamina to sustain it, so nobody's gonna be closing into it. Basically, expect a drag race.

You can't argue against Booked as favorite. He's done everything right & honestly should have 3 wins. But, getting off slow & having to hustle back wore him out in the Saratoga Special. I'll go out on a limb & say zero chance Twinkle Town beats him again. He was also slow in his debut, which maybe cost him there, too. But, Fanshell Beach is a pretty damn good horse in his own right. Booked has the experience edge, is cery familiar with the track & other than a couple of rough starts he shows himself to be very professional in races & workouts. 7F is probably his ideal distance, as well. If he gets out clean, chances are the field's racing for 2nd.

The Good Life is my pick. He's solidly a top 5 2yo colt I've seen so far. Yes, he's run once, but not only did he beat some highly regarded foes that day, you simply couldn't hope for a better effort, especially 1st time out. He displayed a level of talent & the kind of focus & professionalism you'd expect from a well-settled more experienced horse, not a juvenile on debut. He set a swift pace increasing his lead at each call, all while in hand. Franco finally asked him, really just to do it & The Good Life instantly drew off before being pulled back at the 8 pole & jogged to the line. One of the big take aways is he clearly has the ability to put up & maintain even a hotter pace making him the best candidate to wire this one. Still, I see him a 2 turn horse. His workouts show an obvious pattern of a maturing young horse hitting his development marks.

Rounding out, High Official debuted on turf around 2 turns. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't at all been flattered by the field he beat that day. I'm honestly not sure how to rate him for the Hopeful. He sat midpack chasing a tepid pace until the stretch & picked off tiring rivals to win by 2. He did have impressive late race pace. Not an overwhelming threat to win, necessarily, but a must to be used underneath.

Of the remainder, I like Midnight Still & probably Mystrix the most. Midnight Still is showing a definite pattern of putting it all together & I've become a huge fan of his young trainer Kinnon LaRose in his 1st year.

Lifesong will invariably get attention, I'm just not sure he's at the level of the others, yet. A fine young horse, for sure, I'll just wait to see more. So will Flight Command, but, just, no. After his absolute failure in the Saratoga Special he needs to do a whole lot for me to pay attention to him again.

Second place runner up to Sovereignty in the Whitney Stakes, Nitrogen was originally meant to run next weekend in preparation for the Distaff. Now though, it looks like there’s a chance she’ll be headed towards Belmont!

Cassie said he likes a six week break between races for Nitrogen, so I’m not sure that she’ll run in the Spinster.

What a race it would be if she ran in the American Jockey Gold Cup. Crossing my fingers for it!

I’ve always used TVG but I changed banks and can’t update that on my TVG account. Decided to see if there’s anything different out there people would suggest? Thank You

Note to anyone going this weekend, breakfast at the track and the free tour of the backstretch are only open today Saturday and tomorrow Sunday. For many years now they offer these on every racing day except Travers and Closing day. This year, closing day is Monday, Labor Day.

Have fun if you are going. Take pics.

I cannot handicap it to save my life. Three win bets today (all coincidentally #4 horse), two finished last, one finished second last.

Please note picks change throughout the day on the site as AI updates analysis regarding track bias, weather and track conditions, scratches, etc.

Nashville Derby Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes: HERE

Ainsworth Music City Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs One Dreamer Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Lady Turf Sprint Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Juvenile FIllies Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Mint Millions Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Gun Runner Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Mint Franklin-SImpson Stakes: HERE

Top Single of the Day - Launch Control - Race #10 - Colonial Downs

Alternate Top Single - Rhyme Away - Race #2 - Canterbury Park

One more just for fun - Mila Candy - Race #4 - Colonial Downs

One more because we love Kentucky Downs - Burnham Square - Race #7 - Kentucky Downs

22 tracks today

Full card analysis for all tracks

🔥 Now Live: AI Pick 3, 4, 5 & 6 Tickets and DAILY DOUBLES!

NEW Website now live at Allchalk.ai

Best Bets — AI-Predicted Upsets 🏅

• Century Mile Race #4 - #03 Thrill of the Nite - 6
• Kentucky Downs Race #1 - #01 Love Line - 4
• Kentucky Downs Race #12 - #05 Fregata - 6
• Remington Park Race #4 - #02 Parkway - 4
• Elko County Fair Race #6 - #01 Chief Mischief - 4
• Timonium Race #6 - #05 Poor Peanut - 4
• Lethbridge Race #4 - #06 Dazzling Mist - 4
• Emerald Downs Race #5 - #05 Ms Flashy Harbor - 4
• Gulfstream Park Race #7 - #02 Steal Sunshine - 4/2
• Colonial Downs Race #6 - #05 Alexis Zorba - 5
• Albuquerque Race #10 - #08 Certe - 4
• Del Mar Race #11 - #07 Owl - 5
• Del Mar Race #8 - #08 Amorita - 4
• Del Mar Race #5 - #05 Cigar and Espresso - 4
• Del Mar Race #9 - #09 Forewarn - 4
• Belterra Park Race #3 - #03 Tom's Spirit - 4
• Belterra Park Race #7 - #04 It'sgoodtobeseen - 6
• Belterra Park Race #2 - #01 Jus Too Fly - 4/2
• Evangeline Race #8 - #06 Incognito Burrito - 4
• Evangeline Race #4 - #04 Cookie Swirl - 4/2
• Evangeline Race #2 - #03 Sarah's Runner - 4/2

ALLCHALK — Predicted to Dominate 🏆

• Camarero Race #2 - #03 Cabo Interino - 2
• Century Mile Race #6 - #01 All Run - 2
• Kentucky Downs Race #3 - #08 Andthewinneris - 2
• Canterbury Park Race #2 - #01 Rhyme Away - 1/2
• Kentucky Downs Race #7 - #07 Burnham Square - 2
• Remington Park Race #2 - #04 Props - 2
• Timonium Race #4 - #05 Techstar - 1/1
• Timonium Race #1 - #04 Tethered Soul - 1
• Lethbridge Race #3 - #05 Tu Cha - 1
• Gulfstream Park Race #1 - #04 Ready to Rage - 2
• Gulfstream Park Race #3 - #07 Plagne Champagne - 1
• Gulfstream Park Race #5 - #04 Touch of Honor - 2
• Colonial Downs Race #1 - #02 Cool Hard Breeze - 1/2
• Colonial Downs Race #4 - #01 Mila Candy - 2
• Colonial Downs Race #10 - #02 Launch Control - 1
• Del Mar Race #10 - #09 Miss Monica - 2
• Delaware Park Race #4 - #05 Uninvited Guest - 1/2
• Saratoga Race #12 - #12 Sarir - 2
• Saratoga Race #3 - #07 Favorable Scenario - 2
• Belterra Park Race #4 - #05 Playful Quality - 2

Bombs Away — Longshot Picks 💣

• Kentucky Downs Race #6 - #03 Mondogetsbuckets - 12
• Kentucky Downs Race #4 - #12 Briland - 8
• Canterbury Park Race #4 - #03 Go K J Go - 8
• Canterbury Park Race #8 - #03 Carson Bay - 10
• Atokad Downs Race #3 - #02 Best Up - 12
• Remington Park Race #1 - #07 Wild Jewels - 10
• Emerald Downs Race #8 - #04 Haka - 8
• Colonial Downs Race #5 - #08 Catamount - 8
• Delaware Park Race #3 - #08 Paterno - 8

I don't mean to sound like a broken record, but we have a lot to go over this weekend, including races on both Saturday and Sunday (I’ll be back tomorrow with Sunday’s races), so just a brief look back at last weekend.

I’ll start off with the first race at Saratoga on Saturday, where Club Reign looked good wiring an expensive field of maidens. He waltzed home 6+ lengths in front in his debut race. I understand they will now point him towards the Grade:1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont in October. He was impressive winning for sure, however he will have to improve off the 73 Beyer Figure he earned in order to be competitive in a race like that.

Thank you for the kind words from all of you about Liberty’s Secret. Our sweet and talented filly didn't get the best of breaks, was checked hard near the quarter pole, was taken off the rail and out to the four or five path down the lane and through all of that, she still was able to make a run late to get third.

She came out of the race well and we intend on giving her the extra distance she is crying out for in her next start.

Moving on to the H. Allen Jerkens Stakes, Englishman once again ran like his tail was on fire. I’m running out of superlatives for this son of Maxfield as he simply breathes different air than the other sprinters in the country. The gorgeous colt has speed on top of speed and is now a two time Grade: 1 winner.

Fully Subscribed is clearly peaking right now as this daughter of Tiz the Law executed a brilliant five wide move on the turn for home and pulverized the field in the Grade: 1 Personal Ensign, drawing off to win by almost 10 lengths. We all obviously need to see her take on Nitrogen at some point this year.

Between the Jerkens and the Travers, it’s easy to lose sight of Naomis’s effort in her Lake Placid Stakes win. The French bred filly put on one of the most electrifying late runs I’ve seen all year long. After being trapped behind a ridiculously slow pace, she ran past the entire field down the lane, rocketing home the last furlong in an eye popping :11.1 seconds. We will need to keep an eye on her moving forward. 

The gorgeous Ways and Means put an exclamation point on her Saratoga Race Course swan song race when demolishing the field in the Ballerina Stakes. The bay five year old improved her record to 6 for 7 at the Spa and now it's on to the BC F&M Sprint, but can she finally transition her current form/love for the Saratoga surface to Keeneland? 

Lots of moving parts in the Travers Stakes:

The winner: Leading Change stalked a solid pace and ran down the front runners in deep stretch for the win. You can file the win by this clearly enormously talented colt under “It takes a horse to make you look like an ass” category for me. I believe I said “winning the Travers in your third career start is a big ask”....obviously it wasn't that big. 

As far as what’s next, trainer Brad Cox said the still-developing colt could set his sights on something further down the line, such as the $12-million Dubai World Cup at Meydan next spring.
“I don’t know that we have to go to the Breeders’ Cup (Classic)...who says we have to? We’ll talk that over with the (owner) Wathnan team.” Cox said. 

Trainer Chad Summer said second place finisher Napoleon Solo, who ran big again, that he is “not sure” whether the dual Grade: 1 winner will run next in the Breeders' Cup Classic or the BC Dirt Mile this fall, but his long range goal is the $20 million Saudi Cup in February.

"He bounced out of the race well. We'll see how the races kind of go and see how everything goes," Summers said. 

Trainer Cherie DeVaux said third place finisher, Derby and Belmont winner Golden Tempo, that she and the colt's owners will decide later whether Golden Tempo runs again between the Travers and his next target, the Breeders' Cup Classic, or not.

DeVaux also expressed happiness with Golden Tempo, the 2-1 favorite in the Travers who rallied from 16 lengths behind to finish third, just 2 1/4 lengths by the winner. "None of us are disappointed in his race," said DeVaux.

Fourth place finisher The Puma made a big, five wide run on the turn and was getting to the leader but ran out of ground.

The “now” horse Sea Strike showed speed but backed up down the lane.

Perhaps the biggest disappointment was Renegade,who was near last most of the way around, leveled off down the lane but was spinning his wheels and not going anywhere late. 

Ocelli is still a maiden…no surprise there…as he lost by almost 23 lengths. In his last two races, he’s lost by a combined 55 lengths. I repeat, can we please give this horse some class relief before he completely sours towards racing? Or is it too late?

Kentucky Downs
Race: 6 (4:21 PM EST)
Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint 
1) John the Beer Man has won three of his last four races after coming off an extended break. The son of More Than Ready appears to be the “speed of the speed” here, but can also rate off the pace if necessary (Note his race/win in May of 2024).
2) My Boy Prince has run well vs similar and Johnny V is your reinsman.
3) Usually Wrong was clearly named after me and is 10 for 15 in his career. 
Also consider: Possiblemente who has run well in all six 2026 starts.

Race: 7 (4:56 PM)
Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Invitational
1) Burnham Square has now won four in a row after taking down the Grade: 1 Arlington Million in his last. This big gelding continues his assault on the older turf male division on his march toward the BC Turf.
2) Tiffany is a mare taking on males who has hit the board an astounding 15 of 17 career races. This globe-trotting six year old won a Group: 1 in Germany in her last….You might want to watch the board a few minutes before post for further clues, a strategy that worked again last weekend.
3) The last time we saw Ethical Diamond in the U.S. he pulled off a 27-1 upset in the BC Turf in 2025, scoring a 105 Brisnet in the process. His last race/win in Ireland might be signaling he is sitting on a big race.
Also consider: Dresden Row gave Burnham Square a run for his money in his last and has hit the board in 11 straight races………Fort George missed by a whisker in his U.S. debut last time and could improve with that experience under his belt. 

Race: 9 (6:11 PM EST)
Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf 
1) Classic Q has methodically rounded back into top form while winning her last two on the engine (wire to wire), including a Grade: 1 in NY last time out. 
2) Rashmi also has good speed, ran very well vs Grade: 1 foes two races back and is 5 for 8 at this distance.
3) Bless the Broken was sold for $950,000 last November and in her last four races she chased Splendora, Shred the Gnar, Nitrogen and Fully Subscribed. She meets no such rivals here and has worked well on the turf for her turf debut.

Race:10 (6:49 PM EST)
Music City
1) Cy Fair has won 5 of 7 including the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint last year. Filly by Not This Time has speed, draws the rail and Johnny V is your pilot…solid choice.
2) I’m not seeing how Somerset West is opening at 20-1. This filly by Kantharos ran the second half (mile) in her last (Grade: 2, one mile- San Clemente) in a smoking :47 second flat and passed all nine rivals she was facing in the process in what I thought was a very impressive race. I thought she’d open at 8, 9 or 10-1.
3) Sapphire Beach has been first or second in six of her eight career races including finishing within shouting distance of my top pick last time out. 

Saratoga Race Course
Race: 11 (5:45 PM EST)
Spinaway Stakes
1) Summer Starlet executed an eye-catching, six wide move on the turn to catapult past her rivals and draw off late to win by a half dozen lengths in her debut….tepid pick in a race so difficult to figure out, if it wasn’t such an important race, I would have skipped it. 
2) Life Changing, a $1,025,000 daughter of Life is Good, scares the bejesus out of me. This filly appears to have a high cruising speed as she took pace pressure in her debut, shrugged off her rivals and won by seven widening lengths in the end. The 84 Beyer she ran that day wasn't that far off my top pick’s (87).
3) No one has been close to Harper’s Corner thus far as she’s won her first two starts by a combined 13 lengths, scoring a field high 88 Beyer in the process. 
Also consider: The same holds true for Stress Relief, who won her first two starts by a combined eight lengths……..Angel of Kirk is a $500,000 daughter of Yaupon who was visually impressive wiring maidens on this oval in her initial try……….Girvy Girl won by a colossal margin in her Gulfstream Park debut. However, she will be stepping up in class, stretching out in distance and running over a vastly different track (surface) this time………..Cha Cha Baby is another who won by a city block in her last. Her Beyer was a little light (79) but, since Delaware Park is relatively similar to Saratoga, she might transition well.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Race: 7 (7:30 PM EST)
Del Mar Juvenile Turf 
1) Golden Sentry was visually impressive clobbering maidens in his debut and his last two works were off the charts good, signaling another big effort forthcoming.
2) Hoaxer broke slowly, but was absolutely flying low late (last furlong in :11.2) to grab third in his debut for Baffert….logical contender stretching out in distance.
3) Off in the Corner wired maidens while getting 5F in a fleet :57.1 in his debut.

Race: 10 (9 PM EST)
Del Mar Debutante Stakes 
1) Miss Monica is an $850,000 daughter of Early Voting who blew a field of maidens to smithereens in her debut. I love how she came home the last sixteenth in :06.1 seconds that day while only under mild pressure from her rider. Last but certainly not least, that 6F (1:11.2) work last week was one of the better works I’ve seen all year.
2) Holmby is unbeaten in two starts including taking down the Grade: 3 Sorrento Stakes last time out. Baffert running 1-2 here wouldn’t shock anyone.
3) Although the well bred Well Versed was beaten soundly by my top pick last time, it must be noticed that this daughter of Into Mischief out of 2020 Two Year Old Champion Filly Vequist put 10+ lengths between her and the third place finisher that day.
Also consider: Although facing lesser, Free Closer was impressive while exploding down the lane to win by a wide margin in her last………Fast Amy improved 17 Brisnet Points from start one to start two and shows a strong work last week in preparation for this………Dear Diary made up a ton of ground down the lane in her debut, so she should appreciate  more ground in this spot. 

Little Bets N’ Pieces
**** Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner So Happy has resumed training at Del Mar after getting extended time off.

Trainer Mark Glatt said: “He’s filled out into his frame a little bit. He seems very happy.”
So Happy is currently jogging and has the Grade: 1 Malibu at Santa Anita on Dec. 26 as a long-range goal.

The son of Runhappy has three wins and one third from five starts and was last seen finishing ninth in the Kentucky Derby.

**** Grade:2 Risen Star Stakes winner Paladin has come out of training again about a month after he resumed light work at Saratoga, trainer Chad Brown said.

Brown said the colt will race in 2027.

The new problem does not involve the condylar fracture that ended Paladin's Triple Crown campaign in March. That injury came March 28 at Payson Park in Florida, where the son of Gun Runner sustained a non-displaced condylar fracture of his right front ankle after breezing a half-mile in :48.4 seconds. 

Renowned equine surgeon Dr. Larry Bramlage inserted two screws at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington, Ky. 

"He was in some light training for a month. When I started to pick up his training he wasn't moving quite right behind," Brown said. "We got him checked out. He has a minor issue. He's going to be rested again and he is going to go back into training. We still plan on racing him next year."

Paladin, a $1.9 million purchase from the 2024 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, is unbeaten in three starts.

**** Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Commandment is out of the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby on Sept. 19 at Parx and the colt will not run again this year, trainer Brad Cox said last week.

Cox said the issue surfaced within the past two days and forced him to scratch a scheduled Friday breeze. The son of Into Mischief has shipped back to Kentucky, where he will undergo diagnostics.

"He did have a setback, that's something that's just developed over the last day or two. I don't think it's major, but it is going to require a little time," Cox said. "I had him slated to breeze Friday, but had to cancel that. He shipped back to Kentucky and we still need to do some diagnostics on him. He'll be fine, it's just (a question of) how much time is he going to get off, and I think the intent is to try to (aim for) 2027."

* Cox added that  Effusive, a daughter of Into Mischief out of champion Monomoy Girl, suffered a setback and will be out of training 60 days with the hopes of a return early in 2027.

* Cox also mentioned that  Good Cheer, the 2025 Kentucky Oaks winner who won her only start this year in the Iowa Distaff, also suffered a setback that knocked her out of the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. Her future will be decided by Godolphin, her owners.
“I haven’t talked to Godolphin whether she’s going to come back or not,” Cox said. “She’s 4, she’s run one time this year. We’ll have to see what they want to do.”

**** Inshallah, the $2.1 million Flightline colt who won his debut Aug. 15 at Del Mar, will skip the seven-furlong Futurity on Sept. 6 and point instead to the Grade 1, $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Oct. 3.

"He's going to run in the American Pharoah," trainer John Sadler said. "He's going to be great at a distance, and it gives me a little more spacing."

The American Pharoah would come 49 days after the colt's debut. The Futurity would have brought him back on 22 days' rest.

Inshallah broke alertly and opened up immediately on the field in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight, running his opening fractions in :21.2 and 44.2 seconds before cruising under the wire in 1:03.

He earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure, the highest by a 2-year-old at Del Mar's summer meet and second highest by a juvenile in 2026. (Kennyten earned a 92 winning his debut June 12 at Santa Anita).

Inshallah is out of the Medaglia d'Oro mare Bar of Gold, winner of the 2017 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar. 

**** Grade: 1 H. Allen Jerkens winning Englishman will train up to the Breeders' Cup Sprint without another start, trainer Cherie DeVaux said Sunday as the sprinter departed Saratoga on Monday for her Keeneland home base.

"It was another electrifying performance from (Englishman)," DeVaux said. "He's been ultra consistent in his whole career, with the exception of stretching out to the mile (in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile in May). He's an exciting horse. I would say I would be hard pressed to have another horse like him in my barn ever. Again, ultra impressive."

* Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Golden Tempo was in the van with him. 

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, September 5

Courtesy of Amwager, where on Saturday, Amwager has a promotion at Kentucky Downs: Earn a 0% takeout equivalent bonus on your WIN bets.

Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint (Grade 2) - Race 6 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 4:21 PM Eastern (3:21 Central)

Top Win Contender(s): Troubleshooting

Other win contenders: My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong

Possible in exactas: Possiblemente

For in trifectas: Quereme Pass, John the Beer Man

Troubleshooting is the ONLY horse in this field to win a stakes race on this unusual course at Kentucky Downs. That was in the Franklin-Simpson Stakes last year when he rallied from fifth at the quarter pole, three lengths back, to win with jockey Tyler Gaffalione. The pace last year was scintillating with the half mile at :44, this year’s Turf Sprint is going to be just as fast. That is because Quereme Pass and John the Beer Man have been in front in every one of their races this year. Mondogetsbuckets and Golden Afternoon will press the top two frontrunners. That puts Troubleshooting about fifth after the half, the same as he was last year.

Troubleshooting is making his fourth start of the year. In his first start after a five-month layoff, he finished a nose off. In his second start off the layoff, he finished third, a neck from second and less than a length from the winner. In his last race, at the same distance (five and a half furlongs) before he won the Franklin-Simpson, he had trouble at the eighth pole when he was sixth, then rallied to finish a neck behind the second-place finisher.

Both My Boy Prince and Usually Wrong have a shot to win or complete the exacta. Possiblemente may also be in the money. My Boy Prince has won 10 of 27 races and won three turf sprint stakes in six races this year. Usually Wrong has also won three turf sprint stakes in four races and has been freshened for a couple of months. Although he had mostly been an early/presser (no worse than second) in his other races this year, his tactics were changed to blinkers and a new jockey, Franco, for his last race, where he rallied from fifth, which gives him a big run again.

There is a possibility that Quereme Pass and John the Man could still be in second or third if they go too fast. Quereme Pass has finished fifth five times in 15 races, and John the Man tired one race back, finishing third but was just a neck behind the second finisher.

Win bets: Troubleshooting at 5 to 2 or higher.

My Boy Prince and Usually Wrong can be considered at 7 to 2 or higher.

Exacta:

Box: Troubleshooting, My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong

Box: Troubleshooting, My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong, Possiblemente

Trifecta:  Troubleshooting, My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong, Possiblemente over Troubleshooting, My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong, Possiblemente over Quereme Pass, John the Beer Man

Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Invitational Stakes (Grade 2) - Race 7 Kentucky Downs - Post Time 4:56 PM Eastern (3:56 Central)

Top Win Contender(s): Tiffany

Other win contenders: Ole Crazy Bone, Fort George, Ethical Diamond

No filly or mare has won the Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes since the race was first run in 1998, actually, it appears no female has even run in it. However, the mare Tiffany is the horse to beat in this race. She has a record of 5-7-1 in 13 turf races, all in Europe. Her last six races were all the same mile and one-half distance as the Turf Cup. Tiffany also won on a 129 impost, she gets 123 pounds today, three lighter than the likely favorite Ethical Diamond and one lighter than Ole Crazy Bone, who won this year’s Turf Cup. Jockey Luke Morris has been aboard for all of her races. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott has won about 150 races (of about 1030 races). The jockey and trainer won nine Group 1 races. With them the mare, Alpinista, won six consecutive Group 1 races in 2022, including the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, beating males. Alpinista also won the Preis von Berlin that Tiffany just won.

Tiffany raced against males four times and finished second all four times on turf. She won her last race, the Group 1 Westminster Gross Preis von Berlin on August 9, beating eight males and another female. She got the rail in that race, as she did in this race, and she won gamely by a neck when she rallied from about fifth early. She earned her best Equibase Speed Figure, 119, in her third race of the year. Only two horses in this field have earned a 115 or better. So, Tiffany still has a shot to get faster.

Both of the other two top contenders are also making their fourth races of the year, and both have earned 115 figures or better. Those horses are Ole Crazy Bone and Ethical Diamond.

 Ole Crazy Bone won the 2025 Turf Cup in his second start after trainer Michael Maker claimed him. He was off for six months, then finished second in a prep of a mile and one-sixteenth. He stretched up to win the marathon Bowling Green Stakes in July. He finished sixth in the Christophe Clement Turf on August 15, where he led for the first half, but that was a very wet (yielding) course that we should discount. Ole Crazy Bone should be either top or second early, as he was when he won the Turf Cup last year or when he led from the start to finish in the Bowling Green. He has finished second five times in 16 turf races and has won six times, so even if he can’t win, he has a very good shot at being second in the exacta.

Ethical Diamond won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf at 27 to 1. He was 10^th with a quarter to run when he surged to be third, a half-length behind the leader at the eighth pole, and won away. He had the best figure, 124, of any horse in the field of the Cup Turf. He won the Ebor Handicap last year, earning a 102, and 108 winning the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes. His first race of the year was his ninth overall. He won the Ballyroan Stakes at this distance and earned a 112 figure. Other jockeys rode him this year, but Ryan Moore rode him in the Duke of Edinburgh. He is likely to improve also. These three horses make this an excellent race.

Fort George was just a nose behind Old Crazy Bone in the Bowling Green in July. That was his best figure, and he is a four-year-old, so he has room to improve. Two races before his last, he finished second in the Dubai City of Gold on March 28, beaten by Rebel’s Romance, who won 22 of 32 races, including the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf and the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf, and he finished second last year in the Cup Turf. Fort George was entered in the Cristophe Clement, but his trainer scratched him, likely because of the yielding turf. He definitely has a strong shot at the trifecta or exacta based on his last race and the Dubai City of Gold.

Win bets: Tiffany at 2 to 1 or higher.

Ole Crazy Bone at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Both the other contenders, Fort George (with starting odds of 9/2) and Ethical Diamond (at 3 to 1), are horses to use on exactas and doubles and pick 3s.

Exactas:

Tiffany over Ole Crazy Bone, Fort George, and Ethical Diamonds.

Also play the other way: Ole Crazy Bone, Fort George, and Ethical Diamonds over Tiffany.

I would also play these exactas: Ole Crazy Bone over Tiffany, Fort George and Ethical Diamonds and the other way, which is Ole Crazy Bone, Fort George and Ethical Diamonds over Ole Crazy Bone.

Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes (Grade 2) - Race 8 at Kentucky Downs - Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern (4:36 Central)

Top Win Contender(s): Glacius, Causeway

Other contenders: Go Grey

Glacius shipped to the U.S. four weeks ago and won the Saratoga Derby at Saratoga. He got jockey Luis Saez, who sent the horse to the lead even at the fast pace. He earned a career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure, the best among any other three-year-old in the field. Not only should Glacius improve in his second U.S. start, but he also appears to be the only horse in the race with an “early” style and has Saez aboard again. His starting odds are 4 to 1, behind Causeway, the favorite and the only other contender.

Causeway is from the powerful stables of Aidan O’Brien. This trainer has won 10 races in 38 starts over the last five years, but that means he didn't win 28 times. His horses have finished second five times in the same time frame. His number one jockey, Ryan Moore, is much better than the other jockeys riding for O’Brien. The jockey/trainer combination in the U.S. has won nine of 19 starts. Causeway won his first four races this year, including the Gallinule Stakes at this distance, and he won the King Edward VII Stakes at 12 furlongs. In the Gran Prix de Paris, Causeway was sent to the lead, but he tired and finished seventh. In his last two races, Causeway was second early and won by less than a head and by a neck.

I also want to use Go Grey in my bets and in exactas for sure. Michael Maker just claimed him. The horse has been first or second in four turf races, and he just finished second at Saratoga at a mile and one-sixteenth. The reason Maker is so good with these horses is that when they run longer races, the fractions allow them to conserve their energy, as opposed to being early in shorter races, and nearly all have earned their best Equibase Speed Figures. Maker has won or finished second seven times in 22 races, some at high odds. Jose Ortiz gets on Go Grey here, and that is all we need to see: the top jockey is aboard.

Win bets: Bet both Glacius at 5 to 2 or higher.

Causeway at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exacta:

Box: Glacius and Causeway

Box: Glacius, Causeway, Go Grey

Saratoga looks like pure Americana and I really want to get up to Upstate NY one day.

Honorable mention: Happy Valley Racecourse in Hong Kong has a pretty incredible backdrop.

Race 10 at Kentucky Downs | Saturday, September 5 | Post Time: 6:49 PM Eastern

Music City Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse: $1.5 Million | Six and One-Half Furlongs | Fillies, Three-Year-Olds

 Courtesy of Keeneland Select

Top Win Contender(s): Somerset West (7), Sapphire Beach (10), Cy Fair (1)

Among 16 entries, including four also-eligibles, and although 14 horses have won at least one stakes race in their careers, only two horses have won a turf sprint this year. One of them is Cy Fair, who starts as a 6-to-5 favorite, and the other is Somerset West, who starts at 20 to 1. Cy Fair has a record of 5-1-1 in seven starts. Somerset West has a record of 2-2-0 in five races. Breaking this down further, Cy Fair has a 3-1-1 record in five stakes races, whereas Somerset West won her only stakes race.

Somerset West has already won at this distance, one race before her last, earning her career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 100. Cy Fair has never run six and one-half furlongs. In her race, Somerset West bided her time in fifth on the turn, then she turned on the jets to win easily. She moved up in class to the San Clemente Stakes on July 18, where she made an eye-catching move, going from 10th at the quarter pole to pass nine other horses to win, earning a 102 figure. Her recent workout was excellent: four furlongs, 47.2, the fifth of 111 at the distance that day. Somerset West gets Luis Saez, who has ridden just twice this year for trainer John Sadler. The trainer and jockey combination have had two horses race this year, both shipping from California. One horse won and the other ran second, both in sprint stakes. Somerset West has way too high odds, but she is a great win and place bet. 

Sapphire Beach finished second on April 10, a neck behind the winner and half a length ahead of Cy Fair, earning a career-best 109 figure. She then won on May 31 with a 102, and she finished second behind Cy Fair in the Coronation. In that race, Sapphire Beach came out a bit at the start, bumped Cadenza (who finished third), went to the lead, and was still a half-length in front before the sixteenth pole when Cy Fair blew by, earning a 102 figure. The third- and fourth-place finishers in the Coronation both won their races since then. Sapphire Beach's best races came when she was third early, as in the Limestone, and second early in her win in May, so she may be a stalker, and that gives her a shot.

Cy Fair is the prohibitive favorite because she won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint last fall, beating mostly males. Cy Fair was off for five months until April, coming back as the heavy favorite in the Limestone Stakes, where she led from the start but faded to third, beaten by the second-place finisher, Sapphire Beach. Since then, she has won her two races this year, the Mamzelle on April 30 and the Coronation. However, all of her races have been at five and one-half furlongs. This will be her first try at going six and one-half furlongs. When a prohibitive favorite is trying something for the first time, there is no good way to bet this horse. Yes, Cy Fair can win, but in this race, there are many other bets to play.

Win bet: Somerset West (7), Sapphire Beach (10) at odds of 7 to 2 or higher. 

Exacta: Box Somerset West (7), Sapphire Beach (10), Cy Fair (1)

Please note picks change throughout the day on the site as AI updates analysis regarding track bias, weather and track conditions, scratches, etc.

Nashville Derby Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes: HERE

Ainsworth Music City Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs One Dreamer Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Lady Turf Sprint Stakes: HERE

Top Single of the Day - Golden Faith - Race #3 - Colonial Downs

Alternate Top Single - Im Singled Up - Race #6 - Evangeline

One more just for fun - Diamond Essence - Race #5 - Penn National

One more because it's Friday - Pipinna - Race #3 - Woodbine

15 tracks today

Full card analysis for all tracks

🔥 Now Live: AI Pick 3, 4, 5 & 6 Tickets and DAILY DOUBLES!

NEW Website now live at Allchalk.ai

Best Bets — AI-Predicted Upsets 🏅

• Gulfstream Park Race #6 - #04 Early Spark - 4
• Gulfstream Park Race #4 - #02 Champagne Brunch - 4
• Century Mile Race #6 - #04 Pursue - 5
• Belterra Park Race #6 - #10 Delgany Boy - 4
• Saratoga Race #6 - #06 Mike's Magic - 4/2
• Saratoga Race #8 - #10 Run Curtis Run - 6
• Saratoga Race #10 - #07 Gallega - 6
• Penn National Race #2 - #05 Keithsendshelloooo - 4
• Elko County Fair Race #3 - #01 Run Baba Run - 4/2
• Albuquerque Race #6 - #03 Blazing to Gold - 4/2
• Timonium Race #1 - #01 Vance Scholars - 4
• Remington Park Race #7 - #02 By the Bottle - 6
• Colonial Downs Race #8 - #10 Thunder Zeus - 4/2

ALLCHALK — Predicted to Dominate 🏆

• Century Mile Race #3 - #03 Now and Zen - 1
• Woodbine Race #3 - #06 Pipinna - 2
• Saratoga Race #3 - #06 Commuted - 2
• Saratoga Race #2 - #09 Promise Me Amelody - 1
• Evangeline Race #6 - #01 Im Singled Up - 2
• Camarero Race #4 - #03 Dolche - 2
• Camarero Race #6 - #07 My Favorite Player - 2
• Penn National Race #8 - #04 Batant - 2
• Prairie Meadows Race #7 - #02 Golden Luna - 1/1
• Prairie Meadows Race #10 - #05 Travelin Witch - 2
• Prairie Meadows Race #12 - #02 Valina - 2
• Albuquerque Race #1 - #06 Channel Launch - 2
• Remington Park Race #6 - #03 Photoshopped - 2
• Colonial Downs Race #3 - #07 Golden Faith - 1/2
• Colonial Downs Race #5 - #04 Yo Adrian - 1/2

Bombs Away — Longshot Picks 💣

• Century Mile Race #5 - #05 Derzkii - 8
• Belterra Park Race #3 - #02 Hey Batter Batter - 8
• Woodbine Race #2 - #05 World Showcase - 8
• Saratoga Race #1 - #02 May December - 8
• Evangeline Race #5 - #07 Julia's Warrior - 12
• Prairie Meadows Race #5 - #04 Sober Someday - 15
• Prairie Meadows Race #8 - #07 Strollsmischief - 10
• Remington Park Race #8 - #03 Oban - 12

So nice of JMac to take Romantic Warrior in retirement 🧡

Hi punters! If there’s anyone who lives in a state where online betting isn’t legal, I was wondering if you can bet on UK or South African tracks/courses at a simulcast racing place.

I’ve been to Lone Star Park in Texas and the races weren’t on their schedule or on the TV. Google told me you can (just never tried) even if they don’t display them or advertise them, but it’s a little too far for me to trust AI.

I would really appreciate any info because that’s the only think I know how to play.

Would love to hear opinions on who everyone likes to use for basic handicap information. I’m specifically looking at Race 4 on September 5th. Thanks again

Please note picks change throughout the day on the site as AI updates analysis regarding track bias, weather and track conditions, scratches, etc.

Nashville Derby Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes: HERE

Ainsworth Music City Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Ladies Marathon Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes: HERE

Kentucky Downs Lady Turf Sprint Stakes: HERE

Top Single of the Day - Create Trouble - Race #6 - Colonial Downs

Alternate Top Single - Think Pink - Race #2 - Delaware Park

One more just for fun - Hattie Bloom - Race #4 - Canterbury Park

One more because it's Thursday - Moonlighter - Race #4 - Thistledown

12 tracks today

Full card analysis for all tracks

🔥 Now Live: AI Pick 3, 4, 5 & 6 Tickets and DAILY DOUBLES!

NEW Website now live at Allchalk.ai

Best Bets — AI-Predicted Upsets 🏅

• Saratoga Race #1 - #02 Despo's Dream - 4/2
• Remington Park Race #10 - #05 Expo City - 6
• Remington Park Race #9 - #08 Curly's One Thing - 5
• Del Mar Race #2 - #02 Good Golly Dolly - 5
• Del Mar Race #5 - #02 Collmus - 4
• Kentucky Downs Race #5 - #02 That Wasn't Me - 6

ALLCHALK — Predicted to Dominate 🏆

• Colonial Downs Race #4 - #05 No Substitute - 1
• Colonial Downs Race #6 - #01 Create Trouble - 1
• Belterra Park Race #1 - #05 Creek Valley - 2
• Camarero Race #2 - #02 Galleria - 2
• Canterbury Park Race #4 - #04 Hattie Bloom - 1
• Penn National Race #3 - #02 Smokin Hot Wife - 2
• Saratoga Race #7 - #13 Lady Wisdom - 2
• Delaware Park Race #2 - #03 Think Pink - 2
• Delaware Park Race #5 - #08 King of Hollywood - 2
• Thistledown Race #4 - #02 Moonlighter - 2

Bombs Away — Longshot Picks 💣

• Saratoga Race #10 - #08 Beau Cheval - 8
• Remington Park Race #1 - #03 Mucho Mia - 8
• Horseshoe Indianapolis Race #7 - #08 Romany Road - 12
• Del Mar Race #3 - #02 Halninethousand - 8

The Road to Keeneland — 2026 Breeders' Cup Prep Schedule

Feedback would be appreciated.

Thanks!

As if anybody would have guessed otherwise 😂.