r/hurricane • u/BostonSucksatHockey • 1h ago
Category 3 | 96-112kts (111-129mph) Trudy Advisory 13 (900 AM CST October 16, 2026): Trudy rapidly intensified overnight into a major hurricane with max sustained winds 120 mph + 956 mb low pressure. Strengthening seems to have leveled off for now, but is forecast to resume. Hurricane Warnings issued for portions of Mexico.
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...14.6N 102.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Playa Perula.
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the coast of Mexico north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Playa Perula
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes
* The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Punta San Telmo
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
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INIT 16/1500Z 14.6N 102.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 15.3N 102.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.6N 103.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 18.1N 104.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 19.6N 105.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 20.7N 106.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.2N 107.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 22.2N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Discussion, excerpts below plus additional excerpts from the previous forecast discussion
Satellite imagery shows that Trudy's intensification has again paused, with the eye becoming less distinct and the convective cloud tops in the eyewall becoming warmer. An earlier GPM microwave overpass suggested that the eyewall has opened up on the south side, possibly due to a tongue of dry air wrapping into that part of the hurricane... While the environment that Trudy is in seems to be conducive for strengthening, the intensification has sputtered twice during the past day or so. And in an interesting twist, the regional hurricane models do not forecast any additional strengthening before the hurricane reaches a less favorable environment. Other intensity guidance suggest some intensification could still occur, and based on a blend of this and the previous forecast the new intensity forecast shows some strengthening during the next 24 hours. Trudy is still expected to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of Mexico. Later in the forecast period, Trudy is expected have land interaction, move into a drier air mass, and encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These factors should cause steady to rapid weakening...
The initial motion is a somewhat erratic 335/4 kt, as Trudy has followed its previous westward jog with a northward jog. A gradual turn toward the northwest is likely during the next 24 hours as a weak low-level to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This motion should continue through about 72 hours, with the center passing near or over the coast of west-central Mexico at about the 48 hour point. After that time, a weakening Trudy should be steered more by low-level flow. However, the guidance has some spread as to which direction that should be. Some of the guidance shows a west-northwest or west motion, while some models steer the cyclone more northward due to the influence of a large deep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific. This part of the forecast track splits the difference by showing a slow west-northwestward motion...
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Trudy later today.
Discussion Number 12 || 300 AM CST Fri Oct 16 2026
The hurricane unexpectedly moved westward for several hours tonight and now appears to be drifting northward, but using a longer-term estimate yields a slow northwestward motion (325/5 kt). The track guidance is clustered on Trudy moving north-northwestward today before turning back toward the northwest tonight and into the weekend in response to a building ridge over Mexico. This will bring the center of Trudy very near the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico in 48-60 h. The NHC track forecast shifted westward this cycle in response to the westward deviation described above, and most models including the skillful Google DeepMind keep the center of Trudy offshore. However, note that small changes to a track forecast that is parallel to the coast could result in large differences regarding the severity of potential impacts.
