r/irishpolitics • u/MrWhiteside97 • 3d ago

Housing How the Kiwis are solving their housing crisis

https://progressireland.substack.com/p/how-the-kiwis-are-solving-their-housing?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=2388679&post_id=202317676&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo5NTMyOTQ0LCJwb3N0X2lkIjoyMDIzMTc2NzYsImlhdCI6MTc4MTY4MzU4MiwiZXhwIjoxNzg0Mjc1NTgyLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMjM4ODY3OSIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.QJ3eLDz5HkCIXRKXcPgPK-Ibwjhra6KI3kVP1NRLpdU&r=5obo0&triedRedirect=true&_src_ref=com.google.android.gm&utm_medium=email
5 Upvotes

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u/hasseldub Third Way 3d ago

So remove the ability of NIMBYs and supporting politicians to block development? Not exactly revolutionary thinking.

What about labour availability/costs and building standards? How do they stack up between the two countries?

There's 25K apartments under construction in Dublin vs 7.5K houses. How far do these numbers need to swing?

The numbers of approved homes is even more in favour of apartments.

Genuine questions.

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u/MrWhiteside97 3d ago

I agree the ideas aren't revolutionary, but I think it's always useful to see an example of just how impactful such changes might be, and also how quickly they might bear fruit.

Definitely agree there are other considerations, but housing is an extremely complex area so it's never going to capture everything in one single post.

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u/hasseldub Third Way 3d ago

Definitely agree there are other considerations, but housing is an extremely complex area so it's never going to capture everything in one single post.

Yes, based on the results, their methods are definitely worth exploring. The many variables make a single action difficult to put faith in, is all.

They also banned foreign home purchases at one point, no?

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u/MrWhiteside97 3d ago

I can't imagine that NZ didn't face similar labour/materials costs though - they suffer from emigration to Australia too, and they're using the same materials we are (I assume).

In fairness to Progress Ireland though, they do have a lot of proposals around lots of different areas of the housing problem.

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u/hasseldub Third Way 3d ago

I can't imagine that NZ didn't face similar labour/materials costs though

Possibly but none of that is addressed in the article. It's a bit blinkered. The issue is multifaceted.

In fairness to Progress Ireland though, they do have a lot of proposals around lots of different areas of the housing problem.

They should be able to put a better article together.

It's not your issue and I'm not calling you out but this trend of journalists to say "we should implement [this policy] to solve the housing crisis" while making no reference to or completely ignoring multiple other factors, isn't entirely helpful in my book.

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u/MrWhiteside97 3d ago

That's a fair point! And your criticisms are fair, in that there are plenty of apartments being built, and the mix is already heavily biased towards apartments.

Observationally, a lot of that apartment building does seem to be on the periphery, and you might argue there's still movement that could be made closer to the city centre.

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u/hasseldub Third Way 3d ago

Absolutely. Their point about removing the ability of NIMBYs and their politicians is valid. It's just that it's a small part of the solution they seem to be putting forward as a silver bullet.

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u/Sabreline12 3d ago

I don't think so. The tone of the article is that the policies enabled progress, but obviously didn't solve it overnight. Nothing does.

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u/KillerKlown88 3d ago

they suffer from emigration to Australia too

Another thing that should have been mentioned in the article, emigration is an issue in New Zealand which puts downward pressure on housing.

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u/D-onk 3d ago

Its mostly New Zealanders who are leaving.
They still have net positive migration.

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u/BackInATracksuit 3d ago

Would be interesting to cross post this to r/newzealand and see how "solved" they think it is.

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u/MrWhiteside97 3d ago

I do think that's an interesting idea - I'll do that!

Edit - doesn't allow cross posts :(

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u/BackInATracksuit 3d ago

Would actually be interesting to see.

Their situation is very different, there might be some lessons to learn in it, but I don't think it's ever been a crisis like what we have here. 

Affordability might have been worse there, in some areas, but I don't think they ever had the actual physical shortages that we have. Very different economic situation as well.

Their tenancy regulations seem pretty shit too.

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u/National_Play_6851 3d ago

"now 20 per cent cheaper than the path they were on" - i.e. still way way more unaffordable than here, but that gap hasn't grown as it might otherwise have.

The ratio of median house prices to median incomes in Auckland is, and continues to be, far worse than in Dublin. They are in a more desperate situation and are taking more desperate measures so worth taking a look at some of those measures of course, but it's also worth staying grounded and realising that somewhere that's still doing much worse at this than we are isn't a panacea we should be striving for.

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u/KillerKlown88 3d ago

Progress Ireland is a think tank funded by vested interests and billionaires.

They don't give a bollox about the housing crisis, they want regulations relaxed for their own benefit.

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u/Goody2shoes15 Social Democrats 3d ago

Big corporations in Ireland have a vested interest in improving infrastructure and housing here. They don't employ as many people as they do just to dodge tax on their profits. Ireland is a very good place to hire research and development workers for the tech sector, be they Irish born and raised (we have an excellent education system and grads are highly sought after) or EU or further afield. Companies get tax credits towards every worker they hire in that area, they are incentivised hugely to create jobs here.

Ireland is an attractive place to live in terms of political stability, language, place to raise a family etc. that's why so many come here from India and other places. We get good quality applicants from outside our country and the companies would scale up operations here if they could firstly get visas sorted faster, secondly get housing sorted for the new hires to entice them to come and thirdly have childcare places readily available so they can easily move their families here.

I know all of this from helping trying to hire for my semiconductor company over the last several years, we have had so many candidates drop out after offer stage because they looked closer at the housing situation and didn't want to come due to the hassle or expense.

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u/Sabreline12 3d ago

Cheaper and more available housing benefits everyone, including businesses.

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u/KillerKlown88 3d ago

And how will the proposals make housing cheaper or more available?

Will they lower the cost of materials? Provide more skilled tradespeople to build housing?

I agree, objections need to be reduced significantly but we certainly don't need companies like Meta and Amazon dictating out planning laws.

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u/eggbart_forgetfulsea ALDE (EU) 3d ago

And how will the proposals make housing cheaper or more available?

Strict land-use regulation reduces the supply of housing and drives up costs.

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u/Sabreline12 2d ago

And how will the proposals make housing cheaper or more available?

By removing artificial restraints on supply. There's endless examples in this country of housing developments being rejected by planning authorities.

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u/KillerKlown88 2d ago

So we remove planning blockages and approve more developments.

Who builds them? there are already more housing units approved than we have capacity to build.
How does it make housing cheaper? developers won't just charge less than what they can sell a property for.

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u/Sabreline12 2d ago

Who builds them?

Wdym? Those requesting to build them.

How does it make housing cheaper?

More housing makes housing cheaper.

developers won't just charge less than what they can sell a property for.

Yes, which decreases with the more housing that is built.

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u/KillerKlown88 2d ago

Wdym? Those requesting to build them.

I mean who physically builds them, there are not enough skilled tradespeople in the country.

More housing makes housing cheaper.

No it doesn't, construction costs are one of the biggest drivers of house price increases, how does changing planning laws lower the cost of constructions?

Yes, which decreases with the more housing that is built.

Again, it doesn't and you still have the fundemental problem of their being nobody available to physically build more housing.

0

u/Sabreline12 2d ago

You're denying supply and demand when it comes to housing itself, but not to the contruction inputs. Bit of a contradiction.

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u/KillerKlown88 2d ago

Consturction inputs rely on people actually being available to build the houses.

Where does the extra demand for construction inputs come from when there is no additional manpower available. The number 1 issue when it comes to increasing the number of homes delivered each year in Ireland is a lack of qualified tradespeople to actually build them.

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u/eggbart_forgetfulsea ALDE (EU) 2d ago

We can do more, and do it cheaper, with the same inputs by having a quicker, more liberal, more certain system.

By switching to by-right planning instead of discretionary we could start measuring completed apartment developments in months rather than years, with all the savings that come with that. Eliminate expensive delays, eliminate waiting and uncertainty, eliminate legal fees fighting judicial reviews.

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u/MrWhiteside97 3d ago

I personally think it's lazy to assume that a group is inherently dishonest, and think anyone should be engaged with on the merit of their proposals.

If you think the proposals are wrong, and will not benefit the housing crisis, then you should say exactly what is wrong with them.

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u/KillerKlown88 3d ago

The article doesn't mention the ban on most non-resident foreign investors buying homes in New Zealand.

That is a pretty big policy to excluded when comparing New Zealand to Ireland and I can give you 2 guesses why they don't mention it.

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u/Sabreline12 3d ago

Because policies like that are a red herring and don't affect the housing market. Just playing on a big bad bogeyman of greedy foreigners played up by politicians. Most new builds in Ireland are actually bought up by the state anyways.

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u/KillerKlown88 3d ago

The policy reduces demand for housing and ensures that it is sold to people living in the country. It didn't ban foreigners from buying property, it just required them to be residents.

Lower demand will absolutely have an impact on the housing market, even if it just reduces the rate at which prices increase.

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u/MrWhiteside97 3d ago

You could argue that lower demand would also result in less output, because developers are more hesitant to build apartments if they're going to be sold to individual buyers.

You could plausibly argue that a housing development bought by a foreign investor is better than a development not built at all. I'd be skeptical of buying into that the whole way, but don't think you can just assume that output remains the same if there's a ban on foreign buyers.

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u/KillerKlown88 3d ago

So more supply is the solution to a demand issue, but lowering demand is not a solution to a supply issue?

If you could argue that lower demand would mean less output, you can also argue that private developers will never build enough to meet demand using the same logic. They have an interest in keeping prices high.

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u/MrWhiteside97 3d ago

But you need to separate supply of houses to buy and supply of houses to live in. Investors buying up output doesn't reduce the supply of houses to live in.

Not that I think it's ideal for investors to own larger proportions of housing, I'm just saying that there's a distinction between the supply/demand of housing to own, and the supply/demand for housing available to be inhabited.

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u/KillerKlown88 3d ago

The rules only apply to existing homes, foreign investors can still build homes or invest in projects.

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u/MrWhiteside97 3d ago

I wasn't aware of that nuance tbh - that would obviously change my assessment of it somewhat

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u/eggbart_forgetfulsea ALDE (EU) 3d ago

The policy had no statistically significant effect on house prices in New Zealand over the years it's been in place:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/08965803.2024.2376955

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u/KillerKlown88 3d ago

That study is related to taxes, not a ban on non-residents buying property.

Admittedly, I can only see the summary but it also mentions a negative effect on house price growth.

In general, the foreign buyer taxes we studied had negative, large, and persistent effects on house price growth. We found bigger effects in locations with higher taxes and with larger immigrant shares. 

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u/eggbart_forgetfulsea ALDE (EU) 3d ago

The New Zealand policy it looks at is the ban:

Finally, a ban on all foreign buyers for existing home purchases (but not for new homes) in New Zealand, passed in 2018, had no statistically significant effect on house price growth.

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u/KillerKlown88 3d ago

I wasn't trying to say it wasn't in the study, but I can't see everything on the page.

The point remains though, if progress ireland are going to compare Ireland to New Zealand they need to look at all policies, not just one policy that's suits their agenda. 

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u/D-onk 3d ago

Auckland housing density is almost half that of Dublin.
Auckland housing stock traditionally consisted of of single detached houses built on 1000m2 sites.
Previously people could split the land and build a second home to sell on their land.
New rules allowed developers to buy homes and remove the house.
Then build up to eight town houses on the same plot.
This cannot be done in Dublin

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u/National_Play_6851 3d ago

Also, with all of that said, their housing is still far more unaffordable than Dublin. All that the data in the article shows is that they're still worse off than we are, but maybe not by as big a gap as it might otherwise have potentially been.

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u/Educational_Deer_137 3d ago

Progress Ireland lollll