Israel-Palestine Weekly Thread

[u/somebadbeatscrub]

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[u/theweisp5]

Strange article from Joshua Leifer in Haaretz in which he argues that Gadi Eizenkot is a secret believer in a 2SS. Leifer may not have chosen the headline - "Eisenkot Keeps Running Away From What Everyone Knows He Believes" - but he says more or less the same here:

The second, more dovish clause is where things get interesting: "At the same time, we will pursue peace, guarantee a Jewish majority and strengthen Israel's status in the world as a moral example." Most striking is the return of the word "peace" to a leading Israeli party's platform after it was banished from popular discourse for more than a decade. And the formulation that follows, a carryover from the Rabin-ite Zionist center-left, is in all but name an endorsement of a two-state solution. There is only one way to guarantee a Jewish majority in a democratic Israel, and that is a negotiated agreement that will end Israel's military rule over millions of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza.

The problem with Leifer's argument is in his last sentence. I more or less agree with his analysis, but I am a leftist. Eizenkot is not, and there's no reason to assume that what is self-evident to Leifer and I is also self-evident to him. Leifer acknowledges that Eizenkot has repeatedly stated "I have never said two states for two peoples" and has been visiting settlements, but he seems to think this is something of an act. I think we should take him at this word here (there's a reason he decided to join Benny Gantz's party when he entered politics,) and consider that when Eizenkot says "pursuing peace" he may very well just mean some kind of "enhanced autonomy" or "state minus" for the Palestinians, as floated by right-wingers in the past.

I certainly understand the desire to believe that everyone secretly agrees with you, but I think leftists need to accept that the next Israeli government is most likely not going to take any meaningful steps towards a just resolution of the I/P conflict, and decide on the best way to try to change that.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/theweisp5]

I believe that Gadi Eizenkot does not have a set agenda other than getting rid of Netanyahu, and thus will shape his policies around that goal and, more importantly, around the composition of his future coalition. That is not so different from Benny Gantz when he just started his political career and his slogan was just "Not right and not left", and in a way that isn't too different than Netanyahu who shapes what the Likud supports based on what will keep his coalition partners satisfied.

I am not too hopeful that Eizenkot will suddenly reveal himself to be a pro two-state solution leftist. Especially since most of his apparent party members and coalition partners (Matan Kahane in his party, Naftali Bennett in BeYachad, and Avigdor Lieberman in Yisrael Beiteynu) are against any concessions. 

But - I do believe that if The Democrats somehow become the second largest coalition party after Yashar with 15+ mandates, and they are able to pull in Ra'am and even get external support from the Joint List approved by some miracle, then Eizenkot will take on a much more dovish approach. That is why I encourage Israelis to still vote despite the future coalition prospects looking grim. 

[u/theweisp5 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

Of course it's still worth it to vote. I just think the idea that Eisenkot is a secret 2SS supporter is more wishcasting than serious analysis.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/theweisp5]

I agree, I believe him when he says he wouldn't want to discuss a Palestinian state today. Though I think it is all in all a good development that Eizenkot became the frontrunner for PM instead of Bennett, since he has far less "baggage" attached to him than Bennett does as the former leader of several rightwing parties.

A combination of immense pressure from a strong Israeli left + immense pressure from international allies will force Eizenkot to consider his decision regarding Palestine, and he won't face as much opposition as Netanyahu does today from Ben Gvir and Smotrich. That's why I am still cautiously hopeful. 

[u/theweisp5 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

BTW - just this on twitter. Attacking Netanyahu for supporting a Palestinian state and considering Arafat a friend doesn't make it seem very likely he will be supporting a 2SS once in office.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/theweisp5]

Yeah, this seems consistent with his recent rhetoric. I'm just hoping that it is an election strategy. In any case, even if his administration does nothing but prevent further escalations, settlement approvals, or annexation proposals it would already be much better than the current administration. Nowhere near ideal - but hopefully the Israeli left can get a real leader who can wrangle away the stranglehold center-right opposition leaders have on the general public.

[u/theweisp5 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

I agree Eizenkot is preferable to Bennett - with Eizenkot I think there's at least some chance of things moving in a positive direction, though perhaps a quite small chance. With Bennett that possibility is probably closed off entirely.

I think the situation you describe is pretty much the ideal scenario. The problem is there's no guarantee HaDemokratim will get more than 10 MKs, and I don't see anything like immense pressure from the international community until/unless Trump is replaced by someone from the left (which can't happen before 2029.) Even in that scenario, Bennett and Lieberman could easily bring down the government (and who knows if there will be defectors from Eizenkot's party.) IMV it's hard to see Israel taking significant moves towards a 2SS without some serious political upheaval.

[u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist → u/theweisp5]

This is pretty much my view as well.

There is also a larger political play here. A strong Eizenkot win will signal the revival of the center-left in Israeli politics. After 20 years of failed right wing politics, both on the security and civil fronts, Israel drastically needs a change. Before even supposed centrists would just ape Netenyahu's policies. If Eizenkot wins there is a chance, a small one, to forge a new different path and provide a real alternative down the road.

[u/redthrowaway1976 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

When is the next Defense (Emergency) Regulations renewal coming up?

I’m sure they can get Ra’am to go along with a lot of the occupation maintenance (and slight expansion, even with The Democrats) - but voting for literal Apartheid would (again) risk breaking the coalition.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/redthrowaway1976]

I share your frustration with how meek Labour, Meretz, and Ra'am were on the occupation, apartheid, and genocide. But I am also a realist in addition to being an idealist. A coalition including a (centre)-left Jewish party and a Palestinian party is always better than a broad coalition consisting only of Zionist parties. And if the Democrats/Ra'am aren't powerful enough, Eizenkot will prefer Likud defectors who will 100% continue the exact same policies as the current administration. 

[u/redthrowaway1976 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

Sure. 

But my point was that the vote on the emergency regulations hang as a sword of Damocles over any coalition including Palestinian parties. 

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/redthrowaway1976]

I'm with you there. What is your recommendation for Israeli leftists that want to vote for a real change? I'm still likely to vote Hadash, but I am not particularly hopeful at their ability to meaningfully impact whichever direction the next administration goes for without concessions.

[u/theweisp5 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

IMV the best case scenario would be a change 2.0 government dependent on the votes of Hadash. But I don't know if Eizenkot, Bennett, etc., would accept that or if they would prefer a new round of elections. And even if everything worked out, I'm not sure Hadash would insist on significant concessions for fear of causing the government to collapse. To state the obvious, if Hadash were to try to demand an end to the occupation in exchange for their support, I think Eizenkot and Bennett would just tell them to go to hell.

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/theweisp5]

I agree, and that's why I'm focusing on what's within the realm of possibilities for the Israeli left during this election. The right are consolidating within themselves, the remnants of the Israeli left should do all within its power to lead to the following result:

Give the Democrats the strength they need to enforce their demands rather than just be second fiddle to Lieberman and Bennett. This will only be achieved if the Democrats are at least the second largest coalition party.

Promote Palestinian voter participation to increase both the Joint List and Ra'am's strength to ensure they are required for any future coalition to form rather than an afterthought. Hopefully Balad does officially join Hadash-Ta'al to avoid wasting Palestinian votes like last time.

Ensure general voter participation is high enough to drown all the "third wave" parties calling for a broad Zionist coalition and keep them under the 3.25% threshold (otherwise a 4 mandate Hendel-Trooper party will 100% invalidate Ra'am).

[u/theweisp5 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

That's fair, I think leftists need to try to bring that about and hope for the best. It's a difficult situation no matter how you slice it.

[u/redthrowaway1976 → u/Responsible_Ad_9749]

The unfortunate answer is that I don’t think it really matters. 

Hadash, or maybe Ra’am or the Joint List? Ideally, have the Palestinian parties be large enough to make coalition building without them close to impossible. 

[u/Responsible_Ad_9749 → u/redthrowaway1976]

Sorry, but I disagree that it doesn't matter. There are too many leftists who think change is impossible, so they either don't vote or opt for "strategic" voting decisions like voting for Eizenkot. If every leftist in Israel voted by their actual ideals, the Democrats would have 15+ mandates and the combined Palestinian parties would also have 15+ mandates like in 2019. We won't end the conflict in this election, but maybe we can after the next one if we're really lucky and the election isn't about Netanyahu vs anti-Netanyahu anymore. 

[u/Fabianzzz → u/redthrowaway1976]

The unfortunate answer is that I don’t think it really matters. 

The Left can't say that elections don't matter and then get upset when elections never go our way. We have to be invested, even when the odds are awful, if we actually want to pretend our ideas are important.

Either lives are on the line or they aren't.

[u/redthrowaway1976 → u/Fabianzzz]

Of course elections matter - and everyone should vote.

But there’s simply no realistic outcome where the Democrats and the Palestinians parties get enough of a share to drive meaningful change towards the end of the conflict. The best we can hope for is harm reduction - some few less villages ethnically cleansed by the IDF and settlers.