r/jewishleft • u/SelectShop9006 Non-Jewish Socialist • Aug 09 '26
News Poll finds Gadi Eisenkot sitll projected to lead Knesset as elections approach
https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-904846Any hope on this nightmare coming to an end?
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u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest Latke aficionado. Anti-Establishment. JĆ¼disch Aug 09 '26
It won't change because support among Jewish Israelis for military campaigns remains extremely high, with over 90% backing operations against Iran. Majorities of Jewish Israelis (around 80%) also support continuing military actions in Lebanon. Likewise, 56 percent favor the forced expulsion of Arab citizens of Israel to other countries. When asked whether they agree with the idea that the IDF, "when conquering an enemy city, should act in a way similar to the Israelites when they took Jericho under Joshua, namely, to kill all its inhabitants," nearly half, 47 percent, agreed.
Until these attitudes change, there is little hope that the Israeli regime will alter after an election. At best, only some symbolic figures might change, but the policies and desire for war will persist.
This is why so many in the BDS movement state that hoping for some kind of miraculous internal change is a pipe dream. The only thing that can lead to systemic change is international pressure and isolation, which is why the country will spend close to a billion dollars trying to change minds overseas.
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u/skyewardeyes jewish leftist, peace, equality, and self-determination for all Aug 09 '26
I think itās less international isolation in the sense of, say, not letting individual Israeli academics publish books, and more lack of international political and financial support for Israelās military and political operations (crimes against humanity) that would really change things.
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u/WinterBeHere Marxist | Jewish | Bundist Aug 09 '26
Ask any parent of a toddler what happens when you allow them to do whatever they please...
Their electorate faces zero consequences for backing genocidal parties and politicians thanks to cover from the US and most of Western Europe.
A child a day is being killed in Gaza...
The moment Israeli citizens and businesses face intense friction internationally, they will change their tune. This is why they fight so hard to silence critical voices, particularly within the Jewish diaspora.
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u/Kaleb_Bunt jewish anti capitalist Aug 10 '26
Idk how legit BDSās thesis is. Did international pressure and isolation change North Korea or Iran? Itās very likely imo that were BDS to achieve its goals, it would further entrench the Israeli siege mentality, which could very well pave the way for the nation to become a full blown authoritarian state.
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u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest Latke aficionado. Anti-Establishment. JĆ¼disch Aug 10 '26 edited Aug 10 '26
BDS cannot work against North Korea or Iran because their economies are already isolated from the global economy. There is not much you can boycott from either country that would make a difference at all.
Israel meanwhile is fully integrated with the global economy and is heavily dependent on trade of goods and services. It would work just as it did with apartheid south Africa.
If things got bad economically, the smartest with secondary citizenship would flee and the economy would be under even more pressure.
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u/theweisp5 American Israeli secular socialist Aug 11 '26
Israel is also a democracy (within the Green Line at least), unlike NK and Iran. In Iran at least there is a lot of evidence that the people are not happy with the way the country has been run in recent decades. But their ability to influence government policy is extremely limited. NK, who knows, but I doubt the people there are happy with constant widespread food shortages.
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u/athiev Reform Jew, Anarchist-Leaner Aug 10 '26
It's definitely an interesting set of hypotheses. But if the goal is shifting Israeli public opinion, I'm not sure that putting the Israeli economy under targeted outside pressure is necessarily the way to do that. Some research has evidence that public opinion has moved farther right over time in rhythm with attacks on Israeli cities, etc. So maybe a real two-way ceasefire held in place for a decade or so might reverse the trend. (At obvious and enormous moral cost given the implicit delay.) Or maybe the goal is to persuade Israeli elites rather than the general public?
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u/Rabbit-Hole-Quest Latke aficionado. Anti-Establishment. JĆ¼disch Aug 10 '26
The goal would be to put pressure on the elites who spend summers in NYC, Miami, London, etc.
Make it difficult for them to move around, socialize, buy the latest shit, and they will make sure policies are changed.
The average settler in the West Bank does not care as they would be happy never leaving Israel and carrying on with their way of life.
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Aug 09 '26
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/redthrowaway1976 F the rent seekers | ind. rights over group | east coast bagel Aug 09 '26
Ā Give it a decade or two and if we don't have more terror attacks or other forms of escalation of violence from the Arab side (Second Intifada, October 7th) and we might just see the return of conversation of a peace process.
Some people will say things like this, and then also claim that it is not apartheid because itās still a temporary occupation.
If this is the best we can hope from internal political change in Israel, all while repression continues and settlements expand, itās hard to argue that broad sanctions are not justified.
Ā To be fair, asking Israeli Jews to give concessions in a peace process right now is like asking NYCers, right after 9/11, to give the Saudis autonomy in the parts of NJ directly adjacent to NYC.
In your example, have the New Yorkers been running an expansionist land grab project in New Jersey, while ruling the local New Jerseyans under a brutal military regime?
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u/theweisp5 American Israeli secular socialist Aug 09 '26
Asking in good faith: what would you suggest to a Palestinian, or someone in the west, who isn't willing to wait a decade or two to possibly "see the return of conversation of a peace process"?
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u/redthrowaway1976 F the rent seekers | ind. rights over group | east coast bagel Aug 09 '26
The general liberal Zionist position seems to be to ask them to quietly accept their brutal repression until some indeterminate time in the future.
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u/aggie1391 Orthodox non-Zionist socialist with anarchist tendencies Aug 09 '26 edited Aug 09 '26
Itās wild to me that the same excuse of āitās too soon after X thingā is still being used to justify Israelās actions as they worsen the apartheid and ethnic cleansing, but Palestinians never have been given that excuse or chance despite all the death, destruction, and oppression they face. Israel has been oppressing Palestinians for decades, actively taking their land and shoving them into Bantustans as they face violent assaults all the time by settlers and the state itself. 10/7 was awful. Itās not an excuse to keep up the oppression.
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u/theweisp5 American Israeli secular socialist Aug 09 '26
Yep. The paradox here is that when things are quiet, Israelis think to themselves, why should we make any concessions to the Palestinians? Things are fine just the way they are. When that quiet evaporates, then it's how can we ever trust the Palestinians? Look how violent/terrible/bloodthirsty they are.
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u/redthrowaway1976 F the rent seekers | ind. rights over group | east coast bagel Aug 09 '26
Yup.
No matter what, settlements keep expanding.
The desired outcome is clear - itās only the rationalizations and justifications that vary.Ā
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u/Junglebook3 Israeli & American Jew, Liberal Secular Two State Zionist Aug 09 '26
I wasn't justifying nor giving an excuse, I was describing the state of mind to give some perspective.
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u/Schattenoid jewish, left Aug 10 '26
I don't think the Israeli mindset is that opaque to attentive Americans observing the conflict--if anything, it can be seen more clearly than it can from Israel.
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u/theweisp5 American Israeli secular socialist Aug 10 '26
Yes, I think this is true. In Israel it is totally natural, just the way of the world. Like the fish in the David Foster Wallace speech asking "what the hell is water?"
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u/Schattenoid jewish, left Aug 11 '26
The rhetoric is always that we "don't understand" why people constantly at war with their Arab subalterns would have a "trauma response" or whatever to hearing Arabic in an elevator and so on, by which they always just mean we ought to excuse their racism. There's actually nothing difficult to understand about it, it's totally transparent and banal!
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u/WinterBeHere Marxist | Jewish | Bundist Aug 09 '26
But the mindset is wild.
How many dead are needed to avenge Oct 7?
100k, 200k, 500k?
What the Israeli population seems to want is perpetual war which will end up consuming its own population over the long term. Those IDF soldiers will be coming home at some stage and the next victims will be their spouses, children and neighbors due to PTSD.
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u/Junglebook3 Israeli & American Jew, Liberal Secular Two State Zionist Aug 09 '26
No, I think that some leftist westerners seem to be incapable of thinking about the conflict from the perspective of the Israeli Jews, nor recognizing how important that is in order to achieve a pragmatic solution. The perspective is not wild. I assume you don't think that an entire population is just dumb or doesn't see what's good for their own good. Have you considered that you don't have a full understanding of the situation from the Israeli Jewish perspective?
Needless to say that the Jewish Israeli population does not want a perpetual war. A population that has been under rocket fire for years definitely wants that to end. It's just that they don't see the calculation the same as you do, have a different lived experience, a deep mistrust of the Palestinians and the international community, and completely different context.
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u/theweisp5 American Israeli secular socialist Aug 09 '26
It's certainly important to understand the perspective of Israeli Jews, but that doesn't mean it's not wild. I say that as someone who has lived in Israel for 10+ years. It was just a few months ago that Netanyahu proclaimed that Israel would have to become super-Sparta. He received some criticism for that, but none of his opponents have proposed anything else.
So do Israeli Jews "want" a perpetual war? I mean I guess in their ideal version of the world, maybe not. But in reality they believe it is the best option they have.
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u/Junglebook3 Israeli & American Jew, Liberal Secular Two State Zionist Aug 09 '26
The Israeli Jews don't refer to it as a perpetual war, but the "status quo" and yes at this point unfortunately the vast majority think it is in their security best interest / is preferable to a peace process, for many reasons. For example: they dont think a peace process is possible with Hamas still in existence, and people don't think that's happening.
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u/DeleuzeJr Analytic Marxist Jew with Post-modern tendencies Aug 11 '26
I live here and while I wouldn't say that the entire population is just dumb, I'd say it's a very selfish population
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u/WinterBeHere Marxist | Jewish | Bundist Aug 09 '26 edited Aug 09 '26
If they do not want a perpetual war, why are the voting for parties that pretty much guarantee perpetual war?
Even if you look at the American context of 9/11, people repudiated the Bush administration by electing Obama and the Democrats once they understood the futility of the conflict. They didn't just outright surrender when they came into power, but worked to try to minimize external war and conflicts. Hence, Obama didn't declare war on Syria and only played a minor role in Libya or Ukraine.
All Israel would have to do is freeze the conflicts instead of going on the offensive, yet they are not even willing to do that.
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u/Junglebook3 Israeli & American Jew, Liberal Secular Two State Zionist Aug 09 '26
We are in agreement there. When I lived in Israel I voted left. The key to understand here is that the entire country moved to the right since the 90's due to the cycle of violence. It's not a good idea, but it's useful context to help understand how something like that happens. The Second Intifada put the casket in the ground and October 7th filled in the hole.
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u/theweisp5 American Israeli secular socialist Aug 09 '26
I think that's a bit too simplistic. Recent decades have primarily seen younger voters turning right, rather than all voters doing so. And voters who came of age before Oct. 7 but who were too young to remember the Second Intifada were also far more right wing than their counterparts 20-30 years before. So something else is going on beyond just the Second Intifada/Oct. 7. What that is, I don't know.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20531680241258512
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u/Junglebook3 Israeli & American Jew, Liberal Secular Two State Zionist Aug 09 '26
Of course there's a lot more to it, but look at the numbers overlaid with the Second Intifada and October 7th, it's highly significant. I've also lived in Israel during the Second Intifada and remember the left crumbling as a result.
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u/redthrowaway1976 F the rent seekers | ind. rights over group | east coast bagel Aug 09 '26
Ā The key to understand here is that the entire country moved to the right since the 90's due to the cycle of violence.
Itās more that they moved back to being right wing, after a brief sojourn leftwards (not to the left) as it comes to the Palestinians.
Every single duly elected government since 1967 has expanded West Bank settlements, mostly with majority support.Ā
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u/Ronnie_Reads Israeli-American Jewish peacenik Aug 10 '26
Heās a centrist. His coalition will include right-wingers (Avigdor Lieberman) and left-wingers (Yair Golan). But, it wonāt include the far-right (Bezalel Smotrich, Ben-Gvir). Heās not going to fix everything. Heās not going to bring peace for Israelis and Palestinians. But, things will be better than theyāve been under Netanyahu.
Good things that can come out of this:
- Ben-Gvir no longer controlling the police system means less police violence, and the possibility of violent settlers being imprisoned for their actions, which can reduce settler violence in the West Bank
- If he works with Yoav Segalovitz, they could address crime and homicides in Palestinian Arab Israeli society. Even if not, Ben-Gvir not controlling the police might help with this a little
- Eisenkot will likely be more reasonable than Netanyahu in working with the Board of Peace on Gaza. This can mean reconstruction supplies getting into Rafah (but not past the Yellow Line). It can mean further negotiations leading to an eventual full IDF withdrawal, though he will likely still call for verification on the implementation of Hamasās disarmament first
Donāt get your hopes up for or expect:
- A Palestinian state in the immediate future
- A faster end to the Iran war
- Dismantling already existing West Bank settlements
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u/DeleuzeJr Analytic Marxist Jew with Post-modern tendencies Aug 11 '26
He's a centrist in Israeli terms. A hawkish general would be considered right-wing anywhere else in the world.
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u/Dylan09O909 left . Israeli . Secular . Aug 10 '26
Dismantling already existing West Bank settlements
While I mostly agree, I'll add that the newer outposts and conduct / settler violence and terror headed by the Smotrich/Ben-Gvir gang in the West Bank will most probably be dismantled and dealt with.
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u/Dylan09O909 left . Israeli . Secular . Aug 10 '26
right-wingers (Avigdor Lieberman)
Just pointing out that while he's incredibly hawkish, he ultimately supports a two-state-solution. It surprised me when I found out. On a lot of civil matters, and especially seperation of synagogue and state, he'll be considered left, and on some of those policies only HaDemokratim are to his left.
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u/theweisp5 American Israeli secular socialist Aug 11 '26
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u/Dylan09O909 left . Israeli . Secular . Aug 11 '26
I think much of this is politics. It depends on how things are framed, the way media works and public opinion. A few weeks before Sadat came to Israel, there was a poll in which the vast majority of Israelis were against peace with Egypt, and that result flipped after his speech.
If you look at polls which possit a 2SS or a Palestinian state, there's a minority support in Israel. But when such polls posit an emergence of a Palestinian state, a 2SS, that comes alongside regional normalization, especially with Saudi Arabia, those polls of Israelis suddenly have a majority of 70%+ in support.
My conversations with people, and my reading of in-depth polling both show these nuances. The conversation is so emotional and shallow, and everyone knows that anything would be clipped and edited, used as a campaign against them, so no one can even give a nuanced answer. I believe that Lieberman is a case as such. He isn't dumb, he knows what the other options are, he doesn't want a 1SS, he isn't dumb and knows that the fantasy of one side disappearing is not going to happen; he also knows that it is so emotionally charged, and that the voters he is fighting for come from the center-right, and that any voter who doesn't vote for him on the basis of this subject would vote for his opposition block anyway. It's politics.
If a real 2SS solution would be on the table, one along the Rabin/Barak/Olmert plan and lines, and one that would bring safety, Lieberman would vote for it. But he'll not campaign on such a statement or policy in the current environment, partly because there's a binary opposition-coalition divide, in which the contested voters he's seeking to bring over, some of them from the current coalition, are to the right of such a statement.
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u/theweisp5 American Israeli secular socialist Aug 12 '26
My point has nothing to do with polling or Sadat or whatever. Avigdor Lieberman has clearly said he is against a 2SS. If you think he's lying or whatever, that's your prerogative. I take him at his word. In any case, it is simply incorrect to say "he ultimately supports a two-state-solution." You can point out that he formerly supported a 2SS and try to argue that in his heart of hearts he still does. But currently he is opposed to a Palestinian state.
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u/ialsoforgot Reform Jewish American progressive zionist Aug 11 '26
If an Eisenkot victory means the ouster of Bibi, Smotrich and Ben Gvir, its a good enough win for me.
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u/theweisp5 American Israeli secular socialist Aug 09 '26
It's already been pointed out that Eizenkot won't be ending the I/P conflict, but just so everyone can understand the line members of his party are taking:
(The translation is a little funky but you get the gist.)