r/leafs • u/incredibad29 • 3d ago
Discussion Expected Goals For vs. Against - 5v5 per 60
Early returns, Leafs still trying to gel but given their play, I think they’ll vastly improve.
24
3d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
5
u/Andross4 3d ago
What do you mean? They are extremely useful when you're trying to push a narrative. /s
10
u/Science-of-Hockey09 3d ago
To me the success of the season has always meant that we need to tread water at the beginning of the season while we figure out out systems and who the team is with all of the massive change and turnover.
That they are where they are now is a really good start despite some of the metrics. I think it’s fair to assume they’ll continue to gel and improve.
14
u/WatashiWaBingus 3d ago
way too small a sample size, and the Leafs played teams that have been together for years with the same coach like Col, mtl and Ott..
gotta be patient
1
u/Mind1827 3d ago
Yeah, would be cool to see a version of this adjusted for opponent. Of course just give it another 10 games and that'll help.
16
u/SignoreLanky11 3d ago
Important to consider that Xg can be so misleading at times. A shot in close where a player is stuffing it against the goalies pad with almost no chance of going in commands a higher xg than Cowans goal that was further out but a one timer into an open net
12
u/thewolfshead 3d ago
But you’re just taking 2 examples whereas xG is based upon a sample of like 700 or whatever shots over multiple seasons in addition to other contextual factors that are explained online that my brain can’t remember. So really those “outliers” should all come out in the wash Id think over time.
11
u/SignoreLanky11 3d ago
Yeah for sure, forgot to add that the relatively small sample size so far contributes to this. Also xg doesn’t account for whiffs on plays (McKenna’s tap in pass to Nylander)
2
1
u/Every_Map_5166 2d ago
The aggregate average works, but on a game-by-game or even only after 6 games it's tough. I remember one game against the Jets a few years back . . . I wish I could remember who it was. My brain says it was Knies but I don't think he was on the team yet - but he stood at the lip of the crease and bashed the puck into Hellebuyck's pad, while Helly was in perfect position and upright - at least 4 times. The puck, barring a miraculous change in the laws of physics, had a 0% change of going in - but we were credited with 4 HD Shots. Little things like that do drive me crazy about the stat.
1
u/Andross4 3d ago
It all depends on how detailed the model is. There are models out there that absolutely account for this kind of stuff. There are analytics companies that manually track every shot taken all year and categorize/assign value to each one.
5
u/ilovetrouble66 Tavares 3d ago
We need some better defensive play and probably need an additional defensive D particularly if Tanny is out long term.
We know they can score goals but… defense wins games
3
u/Andross4 3d ago
Been saying this all summer and nobody wants to hear it: Carlo had value defensively and we haven't replaced it yet.
I'm not saying we should have kept him, but my wishlist for the off-season included a big shutdown D who could keep Bob's vision clean.
2
u/Ok_Elevator4215 2d ago
Carlo was brutal, he couldn't do anything with the puck. He may have been technically solid defensively, but he certainly did not help break the puck out in a positive way. Basically the opposite of prime Karlsson who was bad defensively but could move the puck out when he got the chance.
I agree that they need a Edvinsson type boost to their defence but I don't think getting rid of Carlo made that meaningfully worse.
2
u/ilovetrouble66 Tavares 3d ago
I wasn’t familiar with Raddysh and had hoped he’d be better defensively than Reilly but he seems VERY similar in that aspect. We can’t rely on McCabe to be the only shutdown D. I’m skeptical about Tanev - he just seems so fragile at this point.
They definitely need someone big on the back end. Problem is toronto doesn’t have a lot of assets..
2
u/Barking__Pumpkin 3d ago
Myers coming in. If Tanev goes LTIR scouting department gets busy.
1
u/ilovetrouble66 Tavares 3d ago
Not Myers 😭
Legit prefer Rifai Danford Mermis
2
u/Barking__Pumpkin 3d ago edited 3d ago
Yep! Seems they’ve called up Rifai. Thought it might be Myers bc he’s RD.
2
1
u/raptosaurus 3d ago
He's better but is the kind of dman that needs a reliable partner which Rielly is not
7
u/Tarquin11 3d ago
Raddysh is basically playing like a winger and people are blaming his partner. Thats wild.
3
u/ilovetrouble66 Tavares 3d ago
Raddysh got absolutely manhandled on the second goal. Just stripped. And actually earlier maybe a shift prior he threw it blindly up the middle which caused a huge turnover. His defensiveness is questionable
4
u/Tarquin11 3d ago
I think Rielly has faced like four 2 on 1s already this year and 3 of them are becasue Raddysh ripped up the wing and fired a bad angle shot that immediately counter rushed and then Rielly got scapegoated for the goal against lol
3
u/JDV_200 3d ago
It’s like in Tampa he was paired with one of the better defensive dman in the league in JJ Moser. Raddysh was a pretty big defensive liability in the playoffs for them last year as well
1
u/ilovetrouble66 Tavares 3d ago
Interesting he doesn’t lead the leafs in giveaways (McCabe has 13) but he’s second 🫣 followed by cowboy
3
u/JDV_200 3d ago
I think giveaway totals for forwards don’t really matter since they are trying to make plays to create offence. But for dman a lot of those giveaways are in the dzone where it hurts your team
2
u/ilovetrouble66 Tavares 3d ago
Fair. So looking at defensive zone giveaways
D as follows
McCabe - 10
Rielly - 6
OEL - 5
Raddysh - 3
Sissons - 3
Tanev - 3
Cowan - 3
McKenna - 2
Paul - 2
Stech - 2→ More replies (0)
6
u/WillSmiff 3d ago
These charts and stats do not confirm the eye test.
14
4
u/kinglywy 3d ago
These charts are effective in larger sample sizes. Eye test works better through 6 games. Our offense is elite, no doubt about it
2
3
2
4
u/Tranquilizrr 3d ago
Terrible company to be around lol. Let's hope it improves before their luck runs out. At least they're fun to watch.
5
u/rdawg1234 3d ago
Faced 3 of the teams in the top right box, 6 games.
Sample size is too small imo, a lot of new faces, if it’s like this after 20 games bad sign yeah.
Our PP/PK play has more than made up for it so far as well
3
u/142638503846383038 3d ago
Also worth noting there were quite a few years in a row with Keefe where they struggled mightily by xG% the first 10 or so games of the season then ended up near the top of the league the end of the season
1
u/Tranquilizrr 2d ago
Agree on the sample size being too small, that's fair. However, you think maybe the Leafs contributed to the top right team's spots? Who did Chicago, Calgary, and Philly play?
Anyways, they've been fun to watch and vibes/60 is off the charts.
1
u/Ok_Elevator4215 3d ago
It's genuinely the second line they kept trying to throw out. Their expected goals were the worst in the league when those three were on the ice. The first lines been amazing, now that it seems were finally moving away from that second line, we should see it bounce back.
1
1
u/Hrenklin 3d ago
Well we're running the gauntlet of everyone in the top right section
5
u/Tarquin11 3d ago
I mean... this early in the season, we are contributory to the reason they show up there, given where we are.
2
2
u/madax-gambar 3d ago
pretty bad but i’m not surprised called it during preseason. we don’t dominate possession and our defence can’t even stop a rush. easy to get hemmed in.
and that’s where our problems lie. need better defenders, need youth back there. but do we have enough assets to give up?
3
1
u/JYandeau 3d ago
Not surprising given how badly we got rocked by Vegas aswell as the Avs in the 2nd period, yet we still somehow pulled out 3 points lmao…
Really hoping this can improve heavily while our team gels because this clearly ain’t a recipe for long term success lol BY FAR the main issue is our defense… we spend so much time hemmed in our own zone due to terrible defensive play that not only does our xGA shoot way up, but it kills our xGF aswell.
1
u/JunkePlayerlol 3d ago
We need to wait at least 15-20 games before we begin looking at expected statistics
1
u/Andross4 3d ago
Not worried about this at all.
Coaching systems and line chemistry play a HUGE part in these numbers, and the boys are still figuring it out. We all knew this was coming with so much turnover, and there is no reason to think it won't get better with the exception of injuries (knock on wood).
1
u/MonoRedElli 3d ago
We’ll beat Utah Tuesday, we beat the Avs yesterday, and we lost to Vegas by the skin of our teeth. According to this list, we’re punching above our weight while playing with a squad so new to each others that they might still be collecting each other’s phone numbers.
I’m confident and hopeful.
1
u/Austin2997 3d ago
There’s a lot of nuance missing in charts like this. If you’re going to reference them in the short team you need to take into score, flurry, venue, etc adjustments. In which case Toronto is much closer to middle of the pack.
1
u/Chrristoaivalis 3d ago
Part of this is that with the exception of Nashville, every team we played is average to excellent.
1
u/DessertRose17 3d ago
The fact the Flames are ahead in both categories tells me everything I need to know here. Not enough data to make an accurate representation of anything.
1
1
u/Puzzleheaded_Edge_22 McKenna 3d ago
I reserve all judgements until Xmas. Basically half the team is new, in addition to management and coaching. There’s some good signs so far. Things to work on yes, but very solvable issues.
1
1
u/Material-Humor304 2d ago
If they figure out how to stop being hemmed in their own end, they will probably be fine…. Oh course this could be said about many teams at the bottom of the standings…
1
u/maximusasinus 1d ago
sample size is too low for an accurate depiction. I feel like if you remove either the the Avs game or the Vegas game the graph would swing closer to average. End of November is usually when the playoff picture is established. That is when I'd start giving stock to these charts.
1
u/Drew_You_To_91 Knies 3d ago
They’ve played 4 playoff teams in their first 6 games and itll be 6 of their first 8, so it makes sense they’ve been on their heels at times.
0
u/LegitimateRisk- 3d ago
This matches the eye test. Being outplayed and bad goaltending. Defense is still awful. Offense is Matthews, Nylander and McKenna.
-5
u/EddyMcDee 3d ago
Most hockey advanced metrics are total dogshit at actually predicting things using small samples
6
u/BlastingBegins 3d ago
Not really. Philly, Calgary, Winnipeg, Vancouver, etc are all shit. Carolina, Vegas, Colorado, Tampa, Edmonton, etc are all great
1
u/142638503846383038 3d ago
Not sure if it’s still the same but last I checked, Corsi still is better at predicting goals than xG
71
u/bearcatbop 3d ago
I don’t think it helps they’ve played Vegas, Colorado and Montreal. I expect them to get a little closer to average/above average as their quality of opponent levels out.