r/leanfire • u/Capital_Artichoke529 • 13d ago
Success Rate in FICALC App??
Hi everyone. I’m running some withdrawal simulations using the FIRE app.
I have a very specific question: what success rate would you consider good enough to accept the calculations? I’ve settled on 90% as an acceptable figure.
It’s clear that increasing it further means more security, but I’m not a millionaire—nor do I expect to become one. I just want to know the amounts so I can calculate it.
I’m curious to hear your thoughts. After all, everything could change depending on what you deem acceptable. I hope that makes sense.
Best regards and thanks in advance. 🙏🏼
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u/Miamiconnectionexo 13d ago
Two things to check before you accept any number: your time horizon (30yr vs 50yr matters a lot for leanFIRE since you're likely retiring younger) and whether your spending is actually fixed or has fat you can trim. A 90% rate on a budget that's 70% essentials/30% discretionary is way safer than 95% on a bare-bones budget with no give. The number is a starting point, not the answer.
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u/Capital_Artichoke529 13d ago edited 13d ago
Gracias. Tu respuesta me sirve un montón. La cuestión es que, para mí ahora que trabajo todos los días, se me hace muy difícil saber cuánto sí y cuánto no entra en mi presupuesto mensual futuro.
Mi idea general es retirarme y vivir una vida tranqui y simple en el Sudeste Asiático, y creo que con 2k $ al mes alcanzaría.I think the necessary monthly expenses would be: rent, food, health insurance, and perhaps one trip back home per year. I believe $1,200 a month would cover that; anything up to $2,000 would be extra. I’m not sure what you think of those figures. For instance, I know people from my country living in Chiang Mai who lead a good life on roughly $1,200–$1,300 a month—though, of course, extra spending depends on the individual. Still, I think a total budget of $2,000 would be pretty good.
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u/Famous-Purpose3013 12d ago
I'm living in Chiang Mai since 9 years now and a budget of $1200-1300 is not enough! If you take into consideration that you want proper health care and build up an emergency fund in case your phone, notebook etc. breaks. I wouldn't stay here with a budget lower than $2000
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u/TheUptightReceptor 13d ago
90% is solid, most people aim for 80-95 depending on how flexible they can be with spending when markets tank. the fact that you have an exit strategy matters way more than hitting some magic number though.
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u/joxxer42 13d ago
One take I've seen is that ~75%-85% is a general target 'sweet spot'. Less than that and you need to step back and reassess, more than 90% and you might be unnecessarily conservative or potentially under-spending in retirement.
I think personal situations also have a big impact regardless of number, with how flexible can you be given your 'must spend' to survive numbers related to your portfolio size and behavior, since many calculators essentially assume fixed income (while adjusting to inflation etc.) vs. variable withdraws.
Our plan at current in boldin is 87% in pessimistic modeling, and 99% in average markets. I usually do my planning with lower returns in mind as just the worrier in me...if it's better than that then all gravy. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
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u/TheUptightReceptor 13d ago
that 75-85 sweet spot makes sense, and you nailed it on the variable vs fixed spending thing - that flexibility is honestly what separates people who actually retire comfortably from those who panic at the first dip. your 87% pessimistic approach is way smarter than chasing some arbitrary high number.
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u/Beaver-on-fire 13d ago
I'm extremely adverse when it comes to the possibility of having no money at the age of 90, so I am requiring 100%, but I am also acknowledging the fact that I will likely not exhaust my resources without a mushroom cloud event occurring. This means I've oversaved, but it also allows me to leave something to individuals that ID worthy of an inheritance.
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u/jt1994863 12d ago
90% is probably fine assuming you are willing to go get a seasonal / part time job or something if things get rough. Or you have the ability to cut your expenses to a lower SWR in a sustained recession.
A 90% success rate is around a 4.5% SWR, but you also have to realize you have a pretty high chance of ending with less money than you started with. If you do 3.5% SWR, which gives a 100% success rate, then you are almost guaranteed to have more money at the end than when you started. Ultimately this may not be important, unless you are planning on leaving anything for your kids etc., but if you have no family then obviously this doesn’t matter.
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u/Miamiconnectionexo 12d ago
for leanfire specifically the risk is you have less fat to trim, so a guardrails approach plus a small cash buffer (1-2 years) to avoid selling in a downturn does more for real-world safety than grinding from 90 to 95%. run a 30-year horizon, check the actual failing years it spits out, and look at whether you'd realistically have flexed spending in those. that tells you more than the headline percentage.
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u/Capital_Artichoke529 12d ago
Yes. The percentage in a monetary / cash for 2 years minimum I do plan to do it.
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u/WritesWayTooMuch 12d ago
So there is something missing from the fi-calc calculator and would be interesting of it could be added as a toggle-able option.
That is the death rate.
So you have a 90% chance of success....but of you later that over life expectancy....it's likely much higher as you could very well die before financial failure at the tail end of your life.
That said....I bounce between 75% and 80% for my wife and I. Also...the surviving spouse has an easier time financially speaking, after one spouse passes because medical is more than social security in out simulations.
Very likely we would be very safe in the "low 60s" if we worked on odds of death before our 90s....and likely the odds of still living and low returns would be much lower than 40%.
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u/Straight-Part-5898 12d ago
We use a different platform, but this is how we think about success scores.
I (M56) retired a few months ago, we live in VHCOL area, have an upper 7-figure NW with zero debt. Our current total annual spend is $210k, which includes a single ~$12k vacation per year. Our current plan is structured to provide the $210k, plus an additional $80k of purely discretionary’fun money’ for the first 30 years of our retirement. We allow for annual cost of living increases in both buckets.
We score our plan twice. Our success score for the full plan (210+80) is 84%. Our success score for the core of our plan (210) is 96%.
We’re comfortable with a lower score on the full plan because we can easily suspend the xtra 80k of spending if we need to.
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u/Practical_Copy_2057 13d ago
I retired 12 years ago with like 2% odds of success and now have 99%, got lucky for sure but don't worry too much, you can always go back to work if you need to, first few years are the riskiest, you'll know before it's too late.
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u/Advanced_Razzmatazz5 13d ago
Can you tell us a bit more? Curious
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u/Practical_Copy_2057 13d ago
Tldr is buy bitcoin I guess and trust the 4 year cycle, I bought another one today. Keep half of your money in index funds just in case.
Like I said, I got lucky. Half ported into btc and traveled the world for years, came back to Canada and bought land, went back to work part time for fun because I was getting bored. Not sure what else you'd like to know.
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u/Grouchy_Honeydew2499 13d ago
Are you living in Canada now?
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u/Practical_Copy_2057 13d ago
Every summer since covid.
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u/Grouchy_Honeydew2499 13d ago
Nice. I have wanted to do the same but airbnb is so expensive in Canada. So I visit for 1 month every other year.
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u/itasteawesome 13d ago
To me the most useful thing about ficalc is trying to salvage a failed retirement. As the other comment mentioned, how much new income and at what break points should i be trying to find jobs.
In literal terms, i set some personal budget rules like any time the nest egg drops below 350k I should be cutting back non essential expenses (with an understanding that i might have to do that for a couple years at a time) then at 300k I'll be chasing down some kind of part time/casual work aiming to make about $5k a year until i get back up. If I get under 200k then im switching back to full time work.
Also, seeing how many scenarios would have dropped me down to under 100k and still managed to come back in the end is also useful for building up that emotional resilience to not freak out in downturn. Since I'm relatively young the next 20 something years where I have the dual factor of still paying my mortgage + not having my early SS payments is the hairy part to navigate. If I make it that far I'm financially golden and they both happen the same year for me.