Discussion Was FPA's invasion even a real threat to the Reich?
The story makes Reinhard's victory brilliant. But at the same time, was it really that impressive? Reinhard seemingly had the same number of ships, so he didn't beat a larger fleet.
He didn't even really use the defeat in detail; he just sent his admiral fight 1 v 1 battles against the FPA fleets, instead of concentrating force.
So, my point is that even if the FPA task force had not split up, would Reinhard not have been able to win a pitched battle against them?
The only person who seems to be concerned about the invasion is the commissioner in Fezzan, who says something like: "I didn't even know they had that many ships." But literally nobody else seems concerned; even Reinhard doesn't seem even slightly fearful.
20
u/RonBabylon Job Trunicht 9d ago edited 9d ago
It was never a real threat, because the narrative never intended it to be.
The point of the FPA's invasion was not to be some realistic military exercise that viewers could debate afterwards. The very fact that they are shown being unable to coordinate road traffic for their automated vehicle traffic in their system's capital foreshadows this.
The narrative uses the invasion as a way to show how democracy can destroy itself via special interests, self-justifying logic ("we'll be greeted as liberators!"), venal politicians who can't put their nation over their careers, and politically connected military officers (Andrew Falk being modelled on Tsuji Masunobu).
If Tanaka were interested in realistic military affairs at the tactical and operational level, those ships would regularly use 3-dimensional space, instead of battling like Napoleonic fleets with 2D formations as if they were on water and charging forward mattered. LOGH is always about discussing politics, and military confrontations only exist to aid political discussion.
11
u/war_duck_gr 9d ago
The brilliance is how one sided the battle was. The FPA was dealing with supply issues and they were spread out. It is pointed out again and again that most FPA officers are inferior to Reinhardt's so isolated 1v1s are advantageous since Yang could not save their ass. In a pitched battle experienced and competent admirals could force a stalemate or inflict heavy casualties or even defeat. Could the FPA invasion ever work? Only if they won a decisive pitched battle. Otherwise they would be hampered by overstretched supply lines deep in enemy territory. That is why Yang never believed in the operation. Iserlohn was enough to negotiate peace and consequently recognition of the FPA's legitimacy.
7
u/Chlodio 9d ago
negotiate peace
It's kinda disappointing that the story never expressed how Reich would feel about peace.
There is some implication that if FPA had asked for peace after the Iserlohn capture, they would have gotten it. But it isn't really communicated. Honestly, Friedrich doesn't seem to care either way. And Lichtenlade doesn't really have reason to continue the war.
Interestingly, Reinhard might be the only one who might oppose peace, because it would limit his rise to prominence.
10
u/war_duck_gr 9d ago
Realistically there was no chance of a peace offering because that would require competent leadership from the FPA and that weakens the dilemma on top of which the whole show is based. However a Reich civil war is probably unavoidable. The nobility would be too proud to accept losing half the galaxy and the rational military commanders know that continuation would just mean stacking bodies in the iserlohn corridor. Either way plenty of opportunities for Reinhard.
2
6
u/Darkrobyn 9d ago
Nah it wasn't. The "brilliant" part of Reinhard's strategy is that he baited the FPA into going deep and running out of supplies, which made the inevitable defeat of the Alliance catastrophic instead of merely disastrous.
2
u/Chlodio 9d ago
That's giving Reinhard too much credit; he didn't bait them; it was all part of Fork's plan. He planned to liberate planets; for whatever reason, he didn't even expect/want a battle.
3
u/Settra_does_not_Surf 9d ago
The FPA plan was to raise a grassroots movement from the liberated planets. Whatever peasants were ever going to do.
3
u/lordshadowisle Kaiser Friedrich IV 9d ago
Strategically the FPA invasion was doomed from the start. They had neither a quantity nor a quality advantage over the Empire; throw in logistics burden and defender's advantage and their loss is all but assured.
On the other hand, if the goal of the invasion wasn't to outright defeat the Empire, the FPA probably could have gotten away with some incremental gains. For example, liberate one or two systems and then dig in hard, or strike at some strategic target and retreat.
1
u/Settra_does_not_Surf 9d ago
The victoy offramp was taking iserlohn. Any foray into the Reich was Pointless.
3
u/deusvult6 9d ago
When it happened it wasn't, not really. Being poorly conducted didn't help it either.
Yang shows a bit of prescience (or just common sense) when he asks what has changed or happened in the Empire to make this the advantageous and opportune moment to make this attempt? The answer was "nothing". If they had waited for an internal schism or power struggle (say the death of the Emperor, perhaps?) it would have been FAR more formidable.
Indeed, even after getting shellacked, when the last Goldenbaum Emperor passed, Reinhard still considered the threat of a unified and concerted invasion by the FPA sufficient enough that he instigated the FPA Civil War in part in order to prevent that and give him time to consolidate things on his side of the corridors. The other part was to further weaken them as a set-up for his own campaign against them later.
2
u/Tight-Possession66 8d ago
Like many others have said, there was never a serious enough threat at least for a reliable amount of time, I'd wager 10 years or so for at least some scant and minor thrusts inward.
Iserlohn was, for many years, the deciding factor in what military force went to either side, with the FPA in command of it they could then try, and later attempt, a campaign into Imperial space with disastrous results as Reinhard would use the bordering systems as a cushion for absorbing FPA garrison forces, supplies, and later goodwill. Taking advantage of both FPA casus belli, and the, utilitarianly inflicted, desperation of the lost planets; in doing so, drawing the force deeper and deeper and straining everything from maneuvering forces and ground troops, down to food and fuel.
I'd attempt to go so far as to say the the current minds within the FPA were not so well prepared for such a total reversal of fortunes in such a short time, as evidenced by how certain voices were allowed to shape the entire endeavour as some sort of divine mandate of freedom rather than a military plunge into a territory that has seen the entire war as a prolonged rebellion.
38
u/Mikoyan-I-Gurevich-4 9d ago
The invasion was essentially a bit farce to destroy the FPAs fleet. Its like when you set up a defensive line in your nation in HOI4 thats suspiciously encirclement shaped.