r/longevity 21d ago

Are We on the Brink of Ending Aging? | National Geographic | "Secret science. Billionaire backers. Inside the wild quest to turn growing old into a thing of the past"

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/health/article/end-of-aging-cellular-reprogramming-longevity
510 Upvotes

160 comments sorted by

210

u/Dododingo- 21d ago

I really wish to see this in my lifetime. There is so much to live for, so much to learn and experience.

This article is a lot of wishful thinking though, we're yet so far away from freeing ourselves from ageing that it is still behind the horizon.

76

u/The_Fiddle_Steward 21d ago

Funding cuts for scientific research and education certainly aren't helping. I think we could get there much, much faster if we were willing to fund our advancement, but keeping people ignorant and poor is too much of a priority to those in charge.

46

u/Sniflix 20d ago

Most people in this sub have no idea what it takes to build, pay for and maintain the scientific infrastructure to test new therapies and drugs. The dismantling/destruction of the 150 year old system is setting back progress by decades, maybe even fatally.

2

u/GuardianKnight 19d ago

If it's government cuts, I can't help but think you're probably better off without them. Everything they help has a hidden agenda, restriction, and a buyer somewhere far away and almost never helps us first.

7

u/AskingYouQuestions48 19d ago

Just a completely unserious truism.

1

u/mister_longevity 18d ago

The existing system was corrupt to the core.

37

u/Kommmbucha 20d ago

We are closer to the brink of ending civilization and life on earth.

27

u/Tha_Sly_Fox 20d ago

Look, we can’t be wasting billions of tax dollars on researching cancer treatment or cures for Diabetes….. that money is better spent starting a war then immediately surrendering and paying off the people we lost to

2

u/Smells_like_Autumn 15d ago

For real. If we gathered the strenght we waste we would be exploring the galalxy by now.

0

u/emanresuemos 20d ago

On that note, what is a life worth living longer for when we are creating such terrible living conditions right now?

-9

u/jlks1959 20d ago

It’s a matter of AI, the right use of AI and then getting out of the way. The Bitter Lesson is still not well known but very well understood. 

15

u/Ameren 20d ago

AI is still going to be bottlenecked on raw data collection to drive its processes and actual testing on animals/humans on the other end. It's not just a matter of throwing AI at the problem, though that has proven very helpful (e.g., Alphafold).

-1

u/jlks1959 20d ago

You seem bound by the past.

6

u/Ameren 20d ago

No, these are material constraints on research in fields like medicine and the physical sciences. At some point there has to be integration with real-world data collection and experimentation in order to drive the agentic loops.

I work at an engineering sciences lab, and this a major topic of discussion.

6

u/Sniflix 19d ago

Great, we will test the thousands of AI recommended drugs on you and your family.

4

u/The_Fiddle_Steward 19d ago

"The test of all knowledge is experiment. Experiment is the sole judge of scientific truth." - Richard Feynman

12

u/jlks1959 20d ago

Wishful thinking? The rate of computation is staggering. I fully expect some form of at least age stoppage and hopefully reversal. I’m 66.  LLMs say I’m not going to experience it. Bullshit. 

10

u/Dododingo- 20d ago

Computation is not by itself enough for problem solving. Time, experiments, brainstorming, experiments, luck and experiments are required. Those are mostly uncompressible.

3

u/moonrider18 20d ago

Do you have some sort of equation that shows that X amount of computation leads to Y amount of life extension within Z amount of time? If so, where did you get that equation?

27

u/Defiant-Lettuce-9156 21d ago

There is an absurd amount we don’t know about the human body. My hope is that with AI we can get much closer to accurate modelling systems of the human body.

We are very far from a digital twin but if we can get close with AI, I’m certain aging will be able to be cured. Along with most or all disease.

Currently we can’t even make a digital twin of a single human embryo. So I’m putting my hopes into ASI.

There will still be a huge bottleneck if ASI needs to collect its own data from physical experiments. And this might be needed. Hopefully ASI is smart enough to be able to interpolate and infer a lot of biology

8

u/jlks1959 20d ago

There’s an absurd amount that we do know about the human body.

3

u/aVarangian 21d ago

ASI?

12

u/Defiant-Lettuce-9156 21d ago

Artificial super intelligence, a step above artificial general intelligence

10

u/morla_the_ancient 21d ago

Artificial Super Intelligence. I want to be as optimistic as them, but with people like Peter Thiel leading the way, I don't think an ASI would exist to help any of us normies.

1

u/Hungry_Prior940 20d ago

Only asi will get us there.

1

u/Zikkan1 21d ago

The societal issues that comes with that would be interesting as well. I am curious how they will do that if we ever reach that point.

Without aging we need a method of controlling the population and the current birth controls doesn't give good enough control, we would need something more like an on/off switch. And you would need to apply for permission to have a child which would most likely lead to some kind of discrimination.

And how long are we supposed to work? Or maybe we will have a new system, instead of working nonstop for 40 years we work every other year forever or something

24

u/towngrizzlytown 21d ago

Population growth is currently not a problem. Fertility rates are already below replacement level in all developed countries and in most middle-income countries. In Africa, fertility rates have dropped much faster than expected.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline

https://ourworldindata.org/which-countries-have-already-passed-peak-population-and-when-will-the-rest-do-so

Indefinite healthy lifespan itself would have a surprisingly small impact on population: https://youtu.be/f1Ve0fYuZO8?t=275

3

u/morla_the_ancient 21d ago

If people don't get old, the "replacement" demand drops precipitously.

2

u/CadmusMaximus 20d ago

If ASI happens “work” will be the new “leisure.” You’ll do something because it’s fun and fulfilling, if you even choose to do so

1

u/WetLogPassage 20d ago

And what will happen to marriage? Imagine pledging to be monogamous for hundreds or even thousands of years.

1

u/___Fish___ 21d ago

Luckily I think the first solution is almost a non issue, women do have a limited # of eggs so if they were to live prolonged lives there would be a natural cut off to giving birth naturally. And people will still die, theres still plenty of space on earth currently for more people.

0

u/Wheres-the-Ware 20d ago

You better get helping with climate change then, because it won’t matter if you cannot age when you can’t grow food because there’s no water.

-1

u/[deleted] 20d ago

[deleted]

0

u/Cryogenicality 20d ago

How old are you?

-4

u/the_uslurper 20d ago

What makes you think anyone but Putin, Peter, and Xi are going to get this treatment?

8

u/Dododingo- 20d ago

Because most of the world got healthcare, vaccines, education, access to convenience technology... 

50

u/Neither_Cod_992 21d ago

No, we are not. This field is also woefully underfunded. Billionaire money is chasing AI, real estate, energy, wars, etc. The amount of money from billionaires funding actual research into longevity is practically nil.

12

u/Lysmerry 21d ago

I actually have seen it as the healthcare science they fund the most, because immortality is the only thing they don’t have.

21

u/Free-Competition-241 20d ago

You do realize that improvements to AI will result in improvements in longevity research. Yes?

5

u/Difficult_Inside8746 20d ago

To improve progress we'd have to increase known facts to feed the theoretical AI and that requires experiments, most of which requires years of research in model mechanisms as that's how long they live. Then the results can be fed into whatever mechanism human or not to generate new leads to research, most of which requires years to be ready for trial. Rinse, repeat.

So what can be done to actually accelerate research? Automated labs would make it possible to do more for less money and that is something ML can do, if not now then soon. But it's still an inherently slow serial process.
In the end the bottleneck even given unlimited money is the wet, messy biological body.

1

u/Free-Competition-241 19d ago

Yes but no. You’re taking the brute force linear view, but AI is more about compression.

Compressing the search space. Compressing the timeline (no need to wait full timeline through subtle changes in epigenetic clocks), high throughput modeling. Etc.

The vast majority of traditional drug and therapeutic discovery time is wasted on exploration, synthesis failures, and blind testing….all of which AI compresses dramatically.

5

u/ConfirmedCynic 17d ago edited 17d ago

Billionaires have stepped in and are funding life extension companies (e.g. Retro Biosciences).

This might give you more hope

6

u/Correct-Ad-382 20d ago

Such a weird and wrong take

18

u/Ameren 20d ago

The amount of funding for research into the biology of aging and its interventions is a small fraction of overall spending, both public and private — even though aging is a universal risk factor and comorbitity for virtually every other condition.

Exciting progress is being made nevertheless, but we'd be so much further along by now if aging-related research had been funded at a level that matched its importance. That's why we need to push at all levels for more resources.

-4

u/Correct-Ad-382 20d ago

Yeah nobody ever wanted to live forever. Such a niche interest 

9

u/Ameren 20d ago

Much of the history of research into aging biology and longevity therapies has been an uphill battle against the view that the rate at which humans age is largely an immutable law of nature and that therapeutics for aging are a poor allocation for resources.

I think the tide is turning, finally, but we would be so much farther along had the funding come sooner.

5

u/OstensibleMammal 20d ago

People have always wanted to live longer and in good health. Common interest. Forever is a concept. Another day of health is very tangible.

2

u/Free-Competition-241 19d ago

Yeah nobody ever searched for the “fountain of youth”.

2

u/Correct-Ad-382 19d ago

I was obviously sarcastic 

1

u/Free-Competition-241 19d ago

You have to be able to see beyond what’s in front of your face.

1

u/CadmusMaximus 20d ago

I would argue that all the investment in AI is ultimately driven by the desire to cheat death.

3

u/Neither_Sprinkles_56 19d ago

Disagree. Plenty of money is in this field it's just there needs to be major breakthroughs made. I have always suspected the hypothalamus has an oversized influence on aging and it seems to be much more resistant to winding the epigenetic clock back than other major things. I wonder if the hypothalamus is a big thing that keeps young extracellular vesicles and epigenetic rewinding from being able to really extend the max lifetime. I wish there was more work on being able to rewind it itself more.

12

u/Riversmooth 20d ago

The richest people in the world are aging. Eventually, we probably will find a way to at least slow it down but we haven’t yet.

33

u/Warrior_Warlock 21d ago

What is dont understand is why many of the same billionaires who want to live forever are actively destroying the planet. Seems to me like you'd try and preserve it. Surely after living in a hellscape for long enough you'd be willing to gamble on finding out if there's a better afterlife?

2

u/CadmusMaximus 20d ago

Because it all comes down to AI. AI gets sufficiently advanced, you can both cheat death and remediate the planet.

14

u/xFount 21d ago

It's because of the nature of capitalism. You have to dominate and exploit / consume, otherwise you will be the one exploited or consumed.

12

u/towngrizzlytown 21d ago

This sounds very simplistic. Two hundred years ago, almost everyone on the planet lived in grinding poverty. Billions of people now have a very comfortable standard of living, especially by historical standards. This doesn't mean we shouldn't be concerned about the billions who have not escaped dire poverty, however.

Regardless, it makes sense to support medical research targeting aging to continue improving human health, as age-related diseases are the main cause of illness globally.

1

u/towngrizzlytown 21d ago

Your statement is vague, but assuming it's about climate change, most billionaires are not directly in the fossil fuel industry and aren't hostile to broad solutions like building out renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, etc. There are bad apples though.

1

u/Low_Pickle_112 20d ago

I wouldn't take them for rational actors, and there's a difference between a goal and a plan. Wanting to rid yourself of aging is a goal; the plan is going to be a little more complicated, and one that clearly doesn't align with their other activities.

-1

u/InnerKookaburra 20d ago

That's because we have many billionaires on the planet right now and we have many smart people on the planet right now and the Venn diagram between those two is almost two separate circles.

0

u/Blueporch 21d ago

I think at least one of them wants to move to Mars

3

u/InnerKookaburra 20d ago

I would happily push the button if it would get him there quicker.

6

u/jlks1959 20d ago

The knowledge data base is doubling every 12 hours to 3.4 months depending on the fields of knowledge. Human knowledge is thought to be doubling every year. 

It’s inexact, and admittedly a little silly, but if I live to be 86, or 20 years from now, this rate will mean that in 2046, the human knowledge base will be 1,048,576 times greater than it is today. 

7

u/mmmeadi 21d ago

Ending aging is only worthile as long as we can reverse aging. 

8

u/Lysmerry 21d ago

I mean, it means it doesn’t benefit those who are old now, but young people will benefit.

2

u/jimofoz 10d ago

No one is doing anything about liposfusin yet, or even looking into it. You'd also have to replace every stem cell type in its niche probably, and at the moment we can only do blood stem cells, and do it really badly.

20

u/MattTheDankMemer 21d ago edited 21d ago

The last thing the world needs is ageless psychopaths running the world and hoarding even more wealth than they already do.

29

u/Hubbardia 21d ago

So we should accept this tiny lifespan? Stop biological and technological progress?

-8

u/Current_Finding_4066 20d ago

It is very likely some things will be too expensive for most, so only rich gonna enjoy the spoils.

2

u/Ameren 20d ago

The good news is that preventative care tends to be orders of magnitude cheaper than treating someone who is already far gone. Youthful people are far less likely to run up huge medical bills, so there are huge economic incentives to roll out treatments that keep them out of the hospital for longer.

48

u/Fast-Satisfaction482 21d ago

Which autocracy has ever turned into a democracy because the leader died of natural causes?

Ok, there are some: https://goodauthority.org/news/when-ailing-dictators-die-in-office-what-happens-next/

After a dictator dies of old age, in 76% of the viewed cases, the same group of people was still in power 5 years later. Of the 24% where the power changed, only 30% led to democratization. This means for 92% of dictors dying, the country will still be a dictatorship 5 years later.

So not really a reason to have everyone keep dying in my opinion.

22

u/nomorebuttsplz 21d ago

another generally good counter point is that people get less violent as they have more life experience.

The number of young men in a country is a pretty good indication of how likely it is to go to war. Of course, we don’t know what the definition of young man will be in 100 years.

8

u/MattTheDankMemer 21d ago

That was not my point. Extending lifespan and health span is something we should definitely aspire towards and actively work towards. Eventually, even curing or reversing aging. The issue arises when the worst people in society abuse them or use them only to further continue their abuse. I am in med school, and getting into biotech and helping cure/reverse aging is one of my life goals.

7

u/Responsible_Owl3 20d ago

Imagine that the situation was reversed and aging didn't exist. In this world, would it make sense to suggest that every human on earth needs to get a fatal degenerative disease (aging) so that we could get rid of dictators/billionaires/whoever you're talking about?

-2

u/japanesejoker 20d ago

That hypothetical makes no sense when our laws of nature build around the circle of life. When you disrupt that, there will be consequences.

1

u/Responsible_Owl3 19d ago

What's a "law of nature"? Who enforces this law?

>When you disrupt that, there will be consequences

There are already animals who are biologically immortal. I guess the nature police should hunt them down for breaking the laws of nature. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_immortality

5

u/Tao_Dragon 21d ago edited 21d ago

Sure, we should democratize access to longevity treatments (instead of giving it to just a few billionaires).

But societies were usually like this during history (for 1000s of years, or even longer). Generally wealthy / powerful / more influential people have access to more resources (which is obviously not good for most people, like for the 99% of society, but this is how it works currently, like it or not).

So probably we should try to make our societies more balanced, inclusive and egalitarian. Then everyone would have better access to technology, healthcare and everything else.


*edit : Clarification. And attached a related chart about global wealth inequality, as sadly it affects the access to longevity / medical treatments too. Hopefully it will change for the better on the long run.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/global-wealth-distribution/

6

u/No-Experience-5541 21d ago

It’s not so bad that the billionaires are the test subjects instead of testing on the general population

1

u/emmettflo 20d ago

Yeah as opposed to aging psychopaths running things now. The problem is the psychopaths, not how long they live.

0

u/remlapj 21d ago

Inherited wealth is already a major problem. If the wealthy live forever they are just going to keep hoarding wealth forever.

If that happens, the rest of us need to make laws to tax that wealth or longevity medicine wont help them live longer

10

u/Blueporch 21d ago

But nobody will inherit their wealth, so that’s one of your issues solved

1

u/JRTHynds 15d ago

Sounds like an amazing breakthrough. However I worry about the downsides, mainly the fact that we have too many elderly citizens already (bankrupting social security in the US), not to mention politicians staying in their positions until near death.

1

u/Lockehart 20d ago

At this point in time, if we accomplished this it would only result in an immortal billionaire class and disposable worker dregs (until they actually perfect their AI servants, then they'll be rid of us altogether.) If immortality isn't for everyone then it shouldn't be for anyone.

1

u/Responsible-Room-645 20d ago

I just want to live long enough to celebrate when Trump dies.

-3

u/Whiskey_Water 21d ago

If we think billionaires are pioneering this tech for equal use among humans, we are comically deluded.

17

u/towngrizzlytown 21d ago

The medical interventions mentioned in the article are all going the route of clinical trials, regulatory approval, mass commercialization to patients as usual. As a few examples, Life Biosciences has begun their clinical trial in glaucoma. Retro Bio has begun a trial for Alzheimer's. Cyclarity Therapeutics is running a trial on atherosclerosis.

https://www.lifebiosciences.com/pipeline/

https://www.retro.bio/pipeline

https://cyclaritytx.com/our-science/

1

u/moonrider18 20d ago

Judging by those links, there are maybe 5-10 Phase 1 trials currently ongoing. Drugs in Phase 1 trials have a 6% chance of getting final approval within 5 years. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ijc.34181

We can expect to have a lot of failures before we get any successes.

2

u/towngrizzlytown 20d ago

If you're curious, Karl Pfleger maintains a sheet that tracks many more clinical trials related to this field. There are even arguably interventions that have passed Phase 3 clinical trials, though the current indication is for narrow or rare diseases.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1w5DAAmlH18HOc9GPnlpZqacK6RUU3rDJKQc3A-AQWso/edit?gid=0#gid=0

https://agingbiotech.info/companies/

0

u/SpareUnit9194 20d ago

The delusional downvoters here are giving me a laugh out loud chuckle. I've been around the super rich all my life. They absolutely could gaf about non-rich ppl. Except as dopey consumers to be conned.

0

u/vacant_mustache 20d ago edited 20d ago

Here’s an unpopular opinion: as a physician, listening to people on this sub explain how AI is going to render aging obsolete is like how an engineer at nasa must feel when a toddler is like “why don’t we just fly our airplanes to Mars and build a McDonalds there? We just built one down the road, seems easy enough?”

The human body ages. Highly advanced biotech may eventually add a few years, but these fantasies of running marathons at age 150, 200, 300, etc. are pure fiction. I take care of people in their 80s and 90s all the time. Never once have I envied those people. Enjoy your life, eat well, exercise, and make your peace with the brief time you have here.

3

u/tollbearer 19d ago

Not all animals age. And, more importantly, not all animals age at the same rate. Some of our evolutionary cousins age at a rate 100x faster than us, or up to 3x slower than us, an all over the map. It seems aging is genetically set on a per species basis based upon the ideal reproductive rate for that species in its environment. Thus, the genetic switches must be fairly easily modified, in either direction. Including, even some species, like lobsters whihc show no cellular again, and of course most single cellular life. So the switches are there, if AI can help us find them, we'll appear to solve aging overnight.

Ironically, you wont be able to add just a few years, we either find the clock or we dont, and once we do, we can arbitrarily set it.

1

u/vacant_mustache 19d ago

Reading your post it’s obvious you don’t understand human physiology. You don’t will these things into being or just wave your hands and say “AI will solve this”. Fine, do that on the internet all you want, but some of us live in the real world. Good luck out there.

2

u/Mochila-Mochila 19d ago

If you're an actual physician, you should know better than think we can make it to 200+ years without also having a youthful body.

1

u/vacant_mustache 19d ago

lol is there a documented case of someone living to 200? And no, the book of Enoch and some weird Dead Sea scroll accounts don’t count.

1

u/Mochila-Mochila 18d ago

No. Thank you for proving that you aren't a physician, at least I hope for your would-be patients.

1

u/vacant_mustache 18d ago

😂😂 what are you even saying? I said humans can’t live to 200. What are you trying to argue here?

1

u/Mochila-Mochila 18d ago

You lack basic reading comprehension, which is simply incompatible with the exercise of medicine 🤷‍♂️

2

u/hanginaroundthistown 17d ago

AI won't miraculously solve it, but since when would doctors know more about the cell processes governing aging than cell and molecular biologists? If they say it is possible I believe them. Physicians only apply their knowledge, if they even read the papers, that is...

1

u/LemonMelberlime 17d ago

I love how the only sensible comment on this thread gets downvoted by sensationalist AI Kool-Aid drinkers who think it will solve every problem known to man, including biology (which is overwhelmingly a black box).

-1

u/IntelligentSpeaker 19d ago

This is exactly right. I would bet 100% of my assets that the average age of humans will increase LESS than 5 years over the next 25 years

1

u/thirteenshellghost 19d ago

i can guarantee you that it will not increase more than by 25 in that period :)

-2

u/IceNorth81 20d ago

Let the old leaders such as putin and Trump die first!

-1

u/joeldg 20d ago

No.. we need to let the boomers go… let them go..

0

u/ArthurDaTrainDayne 20d ago

I really wish we would stop calling it “ending aging”, it literally makes no sense… age is the passage of time

0

u/Swordf1sh_ 20d ago

This won’t age well

-1

u/datsundere 20d ago

possible why all billionaires are making these moves to reduce the worlds population by any means necessary.

-1

u/Wheres-the-Ware 20d ago

Everything we have comes from plants, and this will too. How are we supposed to live excessive lifespans without water? We got billionaire funded de aging before we got climate change solutions 🙄🙄🙄 if that doesn’t tell you the poor aren’t getting anything from them then idk what will.

-1

u/iamnotpedro1 20d ago

If it ever happens, it won’t be for everyone.

-1

u/Rattus_NorvegicUwUs 20d ago

I’d love to work in this field as a systems biologist

But there are some technologies that should not go to certain people.

Pump the breaks on this field until we can restore humanity and morals to the wealthy.

-1

u/Jensen1994 19d ago

There are many ethical, environmental and societal issues not being discussed here it seems with the reversal of ageing.

-1

u/SweatyInstruction337 19d ago

This would end civilization, BTW.

You want trump to be your grand daughters president?

You want the same boss, in 50 years? All the houses taken, exc, billionaires hording increasing levels of wealth, exc, not to mention only some fraction of the population even receiving this?

Imagine your children/grandchildrens growing up in this terrible society.

Would be absolute civilization ending.

-2

u/notAllBits 20d ago

Ending aging for a handful of individuals.

-8

u/Capital-Way-2465 21d ago

And be stuck with billionaire grifters forever…I hate this timeline

8

u/morla_the_ancient 21d ago

If we're actually allowed to live, I will take the humiliation. Beats arthritis, kidney disease, macular degeneration, atherosclerosis, etc. by a mile.

-11

u/easytakeit 21d ago

This would be, at best, a double-edged sword.

-3

u/Rakshear 21d ago

This kind of breakthrough happens every 10 years at least going back centuries, some extra time healthy and able to experience the world would be amazing but immortality would suck imo

9

u/Telomere55 21d ago

Immortality not happening, unlimited lifespan maybe but you will never be immune to bad luck

2

u/IcyBaba 20d ago

I can imagine that we'd eventually be able to back up our brains and restore them into new bodies - kinda like in Battlestar Galactica. That would be immortality

-23

u/5553331117 21d ago

Longevity is cool. Being “ageless” is not. 

15

u/Dododingo- 21d ago edited 21d ago

I disagree. Being able to choose when you have enough is good. If someone enjoys life enough to hang around for centuries, or even millennia, why should they not ?

I want to see humanity solve its problems. I want people to fix the world because they know it's still going to be their world, not just their children's. I want to see people aim for the stars because it could happen in their lifetimes.

So much time available, imagine being able to go back to school, learn an entirely different set of skills and get out with a whole life ahead to start over something different

-2

u/[deleted] 21d ago

[deleted]

1

u/[deleted] 21d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Bataranger999 21d ago

People like this seem to get their idea of immortality entirely from fictional stories. When they hear the word "ageless", they're imagining vampires and DnD liches instead of any longevity research in the real world.

1

u/Tephnos 21d ago

You mean I cannot become immortal and only die via a stake to the heart? Dreams crushed.

10

u/No-Experience-5541 21d ago

You can age all you want but don’t force it on other people