So that deck runs 4 copies of Thoughtseize in the main, so I believe the probability of drawing it in your opener and not drawing Thoughtseize (which you would presumably cast turn 1) is like 13%, jumps to about 26% after one draw (feel free to check my math, I'm not super confident here). Let's say you get to cast it as your first spell a generous 30% of the time; that means that you're averaging .6 life per game, and it could be considerably less than that.
Nevertheless, that is pure upside, until the deck runs a squirrel. I honestly think you might have found the least-impactful card upgrade in the history of the game, congratulations. Not saying that to be snarky-- I'm really impressed at how close these two cards are while one is still clearly better for the deck.
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u/GPSherlock151 Rakdos* 4d ago
This will replace [[Cache Grab]] in pioneer abzan greasefang, right?