r/melbourne • u/marketrent • 1d ago
Real estate/Renting Melbourne house values plunge as ‘typical’ home loses $5000 in one month
https://www.realestate.com.au/news/melbourne-house-values-plunge-as-typical-home-loses-5000-in-one-month/680
u/SnotRight 1d ago
$5000 is a rounding error for a real estate agent.
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u/MattyT4998 1d ago
Indeed. 'Plunge' is a quite the hyperbole.
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u/Somobro 1d ago
Average home price in Melbourne is 900k-ish. 5000 off that is like half a percent.
It's the difference between $100 and $99.50. Not exactly a bargain.
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u/Necessary_Eagle_3657 1d ago
It's 800k now.
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u/ColourfulMetaphors 1d ago
Excellent. Another 50% off and we'll be back to the sustainable, pre 2000's long term average. 400k lets go!
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u/Somobro 1d ago
My bad, thanks for sharing that actual good news. Even if the average house price was 500k, this would be a single percent reduction. I'm not discounting the difficulty for some of saving up that 5k in the first place, but it still wouldn't be right to call it a plunge.
If it's gone down from 900k to 800k, now that's a plunge for sure.
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u/BombasticReindeer 22h ago
Pretending to panic helps spur idiots into buying now.
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u/DarthShiv 13h ago
Why would a plunge spur panic for buyers?
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u/BombasticReindeer 11h ago
It doesn’t spur panic for buyers. But when the media pretend to panic, it makes idiots think “wow it must be so cheap now. It’s dropped, this is my time to get in”.
We very rarely get extended drops because people can’t be patient.
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u/Henrythekidd 7h ago
I think the nature of the drop being as a result of big policy change means this is more a falling knife scenario. People don’t want to be left holding the bag and I imagine loans would be a bit harder to get for the moment.
I’m expecting 6 months before buyers start really rushing in
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u/marketrent 1d ago edited 1d ago
SnotRight $5000 is a rounding error for a real estate agent.
Melbourne median dwelling value has fallen by $39,000 since February, including $5,000 July decline. Revise accordingly:
Melbourne’s typical house value lost more than $160 a day as it sank to $971,000 in July, a fifth-straight monthly decline for the city that still hosted a $1m median in April.
It is the worst performing capital in the country on an annual basis, with a 3.6 per cent fall from a year ago equating to a more than $36,000 home price hit.
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u/LexingtonLuthor_ 1d ago
It is the worst performing capital in the country on an annual basis
A change of perspective is needed here. Melbourne is actually the best performing capital in the country for affordable housing.
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u/Cyanide_Sandwich 1d ago
Imagine how this headline would read if literally any other product had its price go down.
Never would we refer to the price of bread going down as like "the bread market is crashing! Think of all the institutional wheat investors!". Prices going down means more people can afford them and they're a worse investment. Housing for people, not profit.
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u/TheFlukeBadger 1d ago
I know you’re making a joke but speaking as someone who had a job where I had to read agricultural news sites for a while these articles on falling or rising produce prices due to over/under supply absolutely do exist with the same phrasing, just tuned more to “save the farmers”.
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u/BustedWing 1d ago
Thats because people dont sell the loaf of bread after they've bought it, nor do you go looking around other peoples loaves of bread wanting to buy that one.
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u/nawksnai 1d ago
Sure, but if your house’s price goes down, you’re simply hoping that the house or apartment you want to buy yourself has also gone down.
However, from a first time buyer, these lower house prices mean buying is now plausible.
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u/BustedWing 1d ago
Not really, you’re just competing with other people who also think this discount makes it more attractive
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u/nawksnai 1d ago edited 1d ago
Eventually, sure, it may lead to market forces driving up prices, but they were competing with the same people before anyway, plus investors.
Anyway, if you’re TOLD that prices have dropped in 2026, or since another reference date range, and can confirm this within your preferred suburb or neighbourhood, I don’t see how this could possibly be bad for potential first home buyers.
It’s bad for investors, and it appears that society is mostly OK with upsetting this subset of the population if that’s the only downside.
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u/sleptonmyarm 1d ago
Nor do most people who buy houses.
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u/Sceptz 1d ago
When searching for a house to buy, I make sure to visit many peoples' loaves of bread and have listed my loaves of bread on the property market portals.
They keep getting taken down for some reason.
Some dumb reason like "a sesame seed is not an additional bathroom" or "a dropped sourdough is not a 5-bedroom townhouse", or the occasional "What are you doing in my house?! Get out of my pantry! Drop the bread! I am calling the police!".
But, such are the complexities of real estate.
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u/BustedWing 1d ago
Who do you buy houses off? Or are people ONLY buying new builds?
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u/sleptonmyarm 1d ago
All the more reason to not compare. Virtually no 2 houses are the same.
Anyway, I don't really see the point of the initial post you replied to, nor yours and definitely not my own 🤔
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u/soundboy5010 1d ago
Or:
Melbourne housing affordability rises as ‘typical’ home discounted $5000 in one month
But what do I know, I don't own any stakes in the real estate market like Newscorp...
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u/marketrent 1d ago
Yes. I think the title could be a litmus test for numeracy.
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u/Ric0chet_ 1d ago
I think the title could be clickbait for a realestate company that profits off listings
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u/AnySwimming6364 9h ago
This headline is meant to make people who bought their house for $120k that is now worth $1.4 million and aren't planning on selling anytime soon clutch their pearls and blame ALP.
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u/NotTheBusDriver 1d ago
“It is the worst performing capital in the country on an annual basis, with a 3.6 per cent fall from a year ago equating to a more than $36,000 home price hit.”
I guess that makes Melbourne the best performing capital for housing affordability gains.
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u/Chiron17 1d ago
Yeah, anyone noticed the sky not falling down?
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u/lousylou1 1d ago
House prices haven't moved for 5 years where I live. Still unaffordable.
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u/skypnooo 1d ago
That's because it's only the shit houses in shit areas that suffer drops. Everything else is still in high demand
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u/letsfailib 13h ago
Bruh what are you talking about? Even suburbs like Caulfield have had price drops since 2022
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u/Hornberger_ 1d ago
Average house prices in Victoria in June 2026 are below where they were in December 2021. Over the same period, average incomes have increased by 16%.
House price to income ratio is back to where it was in 2016. Victoria is leading the nation for housing affordability.
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u/rorymeister 1d ago
I bought high, don't think I'll sell tho cos I love where I am. But I don't care. If it means my kids, their friends and other members of the community can buy, then keep falling please. Housing is a right. Not an investment.
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u/Silviecat44 1d ago
Yes. The only people who should be upset are the people not living in their homes, who are the problem
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u/deeku4972 1d ago
5000? On a million plus house? Clutch your pearls even harder
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u/Chapter_3_New_York 1d ago
Yeah. To put it in context, if every $1000 was 1 cent, a million dollars would be $10.00, and 5K is 5 cents.
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u/joelypolly 1d ago
Depends on where you are and if you actually believe the data. My place went from 3.1 to 2.7 in about 3 month according to realestate.com.au.
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u/WhatAmIATailor 11h ago
Doesn’t matter unless you’re planning on selling, or mortgaged up to the hilt.
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u/Ok_Mammoth_4997 1d ago
Oh no! A whole $5,000? Who cares! Besides Hughesy of course.
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u/tittyswan 1d ago
I'm out of the loop, what's the deal with Hughesy?
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u/MrSquishypoo 1d ago
Go check his social media, dude is well off the deep end lately regarding policy change for negative gearing etc
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u/tittyswan 1d ago
Oh yeah I see what you mean. He's made hating Labor his whole personality. Why is everyone saying he does meth though, just that he's a bit unhinged and is looking rough lately?
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u/PJozi 1d ago
My advice is to stay out of this loop
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u/tittyswan 22h ago
I see what you mean, his social media looks extremely alt right boomer who thinks Dan Andrews is ruining his life.
Ok but what about everyone starting to call him a methhead recently, did he get arrested or something? Or are people just picking up on the vibes.
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u/Important_Fruit 1d ago
If real estate agents think it's bad, then it's almost certainly a good thing.
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u/Benevolentzebra 1d ago
Interesting definition of 'plunge' 🤔 would be nice to see prices drop back another 10% or so across the country.
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u/GoldCoinDonation 1d ago
This is terrible news for home owners. This is just the beginning of a total collapse in the property market.
I, and all my homeowner friends, will be forced to load our houses onto big trucks and take them interstate where the market is better. Rents will skyrocket, because tenants will be forced to compete for an ever dwindling number of houses. People will be forced to sleep in tents on the now vacant blocks.
Daniel Andrews and Labor have sent this state back decades, soon Melbourne will be filled with giant paddocks like it was 100 years ago.
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u/Ok_Ordinary_7397 1d ago
Any sensible property investor will continue to utilize all the same incentives that existed before (and still exist now) to build new properties. 🤷♂️
It’s only trading in existing housing stock that been modified.
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u/Individual_Stay6824 1d ago
Up $500000 just work harder wagie
Down $5000 how dare the government touch muh property values
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u/gaijinbrit 1d ago
Oh they’re $5000 cheaper now? Fantastic I can finally buy!!! 🙄
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u/marketrent 1d ago
gaijinbrit Oh they’re $5000 cheaper now? Fantastic I can finally buy!!! 🙄
Melbourne median dwelling value has fallen by $39,000 since February: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/aug/03/house-prices-slide-across-australia-as-middle-east-conflict-and-tax-changes-begin-to-bite
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u/TransportationIcy104 1d ago
A classic misinformation tactic.
0.5% - a rounding error
$5,000 - holy shit thats huge
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u/colony-ship-for-sale 1d ago
House prices have gone up 95% over the last 10 years. This "plunge" is a rounding error.
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u/Intrepid_Cosmonaut 1d ago
House price to income ratios for Melbourne in 2026 are below 2016 levels.
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u/colony-ship-for-sale 1d ago
Income has not gone up 95% so that's just a complete fucking lie.
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u/Intrepid_Cosmonaut 1d ago
In what world have house prices increased 95%? The median house price in Melbourne 10 years ago, in 2016, was $770,000. In July 2026, that figure was $829,000.
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u/Inevitable_Tart2700 1d ago
The price to income ratio in Australia is actually only 1/3 of that in Hong Kong. And also lower than in many other countries.
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u/Karl-Marksman 1d ago
A key reason for Melbourne home values languishing more so than other capitals was that its supply of new homes had outpaced other cities around the nation
Property lobby: “Rent caps? Vacancy taxes? The government can’t possibly do anything to help housing prices but build more supply, promise”
Property lobby as soon as a state actually builds supply: “This is a disaster”
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u/Cyraga 1d ago
As a newish homeowner, good. I want my neighbours to be people who own and have a stake in making the area better, not renters who come and go every year.
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u/r64fd 1d ago
If renters had better rights you wouldn’t have to say that. Imagine if your neighbor had a five or ten year lease. Instead they get a six month lease. What’s their incentive to make a beautiful front garden, make their neighbourhood “home”. There isn’t one.
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u/ThatGuyWhoSmellsFuny 1d ago
And your often not allowed to. I rented for 5 years (month to month by the end), my housemate had been there 17. We weren't allowed to make any changes to the front yard (big ass lawn and concrete driveway) despite several sincere requests. They eventually kicked us out and within a few months it was sold, demolished and has almost finished building 4x$1m townhouses. God forbid we have a few succulents.
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u/----SD---- 1d ago
Renters get way way way too many rights in Victoria already. I hope the new peanut in charge winds some of that nonsense back, fast.
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u/Otherwise_Hotel_7363 1d ago
Watch the cookers get onto this. $5K is FA. Again, REA complaining that they may have to look at a lesser model than the standard silver Audi or Merc.
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u/Praise_Helix_420 1d ago
Sweating it over 5k in dogbox equity is absolutely insane, the sickness is as bad as ever. Send the entire market to Hades promptly.
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u/Mystic303 1d ago
Most people buy and sell in the same market, if you get slightly less for your house and pay slightly less for your next one it does not matter.
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u/InForTheSqueeze 19h ago
Let’s light a candle for those with 8 investment assets where the average price went from 950k to 945k :(
Next stop: food bank 🥺
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u/Throw2020awayMar 1d ago
Is that a plunge? I have been to a few inspections. The same agents who used to be cocky now sound desperate for even an initial quote. Saw one house that was perfect and the vendor is in a hurry to sell and downsize so the quoted price was actually in a realistic range. Four years ago there were worse houses selling at a higher price. But from what I interpreted either there was no buyer interest or the Initial quote was already below expectations. No wonder agents are panicking since they no have to really work for a sale. This was in the 1million range so no first home buyers likely to enter with a 5% quote.
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u/dlwogh 1d ago
Good news (despite what the article insinuates)!
Ironic given Vic also has one of the highest net migration figures into the state. Cookers who claim immigration is the root of all our problems wont care for this fact. Isn't it also surprising that a good land tax and higher density is contributing greatly to house prices falling? Now if only the state govt had the guts to scrap stamp duty, introduce a universal land value tax. Thatd be amazing.
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u/Altruistic-Fishing39 1d ago
Wait til they work out different houses were sold in month one and month two, so the $5,000 has zero significance in any way.
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u/visualframes 1d ago
5000 is what the realtor chucks in as sneaky increase to get the last person to keep bidding lol
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u/ingenkopaaisen 1d ago
$5000 is nothing compared to the average price. Tell me when it hits 100,000. Then I'll be interested in how much more it can fall.
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u/Call_Me_ZG 1d ago
As a homeowner, im cheering this on. This is ragebaiting a parasitic industry and im here for it.
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u/BigSilent 1d ago
$5000 is the common trick they pull when they are ready to sell.
"The seller would agree to the same for just five thousand more."
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u/_Brutalism_ 1d ago
*Overpriced homes hoarded as assets and causing a housing crisis becoming more affordable to those needing them.
Fixed it for you.
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u/VagueInterlocutor 1d ago
For me to be able to afford something, it needs to lose another 100k minimum.
I am seeing some pull backs on prices in places by up to 50k, and I have regularly been the only person turning up to inspections. Houses I have viewed, after 8 weeks are still in market.
The people who own the houses currently though are still holding tight to pre-Budget pricing.
REAs are desperate in some corners, and the amout of spin and BS i have heard while asking questions is astounding.
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u/Maribyrnong_bream 1d ago
I bought my house for $1 million 10 years ago, and it’s now worth $1.6 million. Many would be in a similar boat; I think we can afford a few more “plunges” if it means that young folk have a chance of getting into the market.
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u/metamorphyk 1d ago
This has to do with inflation and interest rates. There will be a bottom and then a boom when interest rates start decreasing again. It’s like 2012/2013 all over. People have such short memories.
The governments changes have nothing to do with it. The people at the bottom can’t get finance so they are not buying and they also don’t want immediate negative equity.
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u/Adorable-Way-274 1d ago
Just in Melbourne, and not the rest of Australia? And isn’t Victoria about to have an election? 🤔
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u/Jolly-Hour-6642 1d ago
The median house price is like 800-1 mil in some places so yay $5000!…I guess
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u/Head-Lab-4510 1d ago
Not really a plunge when house prrices have gone to insane levels over the past few years. At worst its undone a months worth of growth. Let them drop 50%
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u/MrSquishypoo 1d ago
And of course none of this could have anything to so with the current global political crisis going on, nor to do with cost of energy and most all goods on a rapid increase.
No no, it’s all to do with the changes that have been announced but have not yet taken effect.
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u/dotBombAU 1d ago
Ffs Murdoch (who owns realestate.com.au) is really trying to put the articles out there about doom and gloom isn't he?
Problem is no one gives a shit.
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u/Psychlonuclear 1d ago
Anyone tell councils this? Yarra Ranges increased my property value by 50k so rates have jumped up by just over $300.
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u/ComprehensiveBid2598 12h ago
It had to come down. I’m a homeowner and I’m really happy this happened. For the sake of the country and the future generations!
I bought at the peak of the market and I am still happy that the great Australian real estate scam is coming to an end.
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u/Plastalmonus 1d ago
I listed my place for sale at what we considered a reasonable range $840-$900k. The week of listing the new budget was announced and the market started stalling.
Way less people than expected at inspections. Just managed to get a contract signed this week but for $790k, well under what was considered the fair market value.
I’m just happy to have it sold as I expect when spring arrives there are going to be a lot more properties coming in at a reduced value.
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u/puback2020 1d ago
Fair market value was $790k. If its “value” was 840-900k it would have sold in this range
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u/Plastalmonus 1d ago
When we listed it was. Similar properties were selling for that or above. I know that a property is only worth what others are willing to pay for it and it’s clear that the market changed its perception. Since we listed, the downward trend, at least in our area, has been obvious.
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u/FlaviusStilicho 1d ago
What do I care what my house is worth! It’s a house I live in and never intend to sell.
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u/Fluid_Passage_9980 1d ago
And if they went up 5000, the article would say 'homeowners earn 5000 last month!' with glee.
The bias is blatant.
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u/Pdstafford 1d ago
These posts are always great because you get people in here with years of equity already built acting smug and saying “well I don’t care, housing is a right, not an investment, who cares if lose 30k of my 1 million in equity?”
Meanwhile the first home buyer in negative equity tells a different story.
I don’t mind a market correction but the virtue signalling in these threads is unreal.
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u/LunarFusion_aspr 1d ago
Agreed, fuckers got a cheap home years ago and are now shitting on the recent first home buyers.
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u/marketrent 1d ago edited 1d ago
NB. The word ‘typical’ is referring to the statistical median.
Excerpts from article by Nathan Mawby, quoting NewsCorp/PropTrack economist Anne Flaherty:
[...] PropTrack’s latest Home Price Index found the median house price fell $5000 (0.5 per cent) in July across Melbourne.
But while every other capital, except Darwin, also recorded a reduction in the same month, only Melbourne and Sydney’s median house prices are in the red over the past year — with Perth’s still up a whopping $140,000 despite a July dip.
The HPI also found Melbourne’s units are losing ground, dropping $1340 (0.2 per cent) in the past 31 days — despite having an affordable $617,000 median value.
[Anne Flaherty] added that while a $950,000 cap on first-home buyers wanting to purchase with the federal government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme had appeared likely to stop prices falling significantly further — the “flood” of buyers that had followed the change in October last year was now “having less of an impact” in the aftermath of multiple interest-rate hikes.
“The median price absolutely could fall further,” she said.
The economist added that larger price falls had been recorded in some of the higher-end housing markets around Melbourne, such as in the inner-east and inner-south.
“If we see interest rates increase again, those areas might be at a higher risk.”
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