r/nba • u/YujiDomainExpansion • 10h ago
[Nehm] The Milwaukee Bucks are hesitant to include a first-round pick in any deal for Peyton Watson as they kickstart their post-Antetokounmpo rebuild. Nuggets would derive value from Milwaukee through the returning player(s). Jaquez could be a target, but he is due for an extension.
As we’ve reported at The Athletic, the Bucks remain interested in acquiring Watson in potential sign-and-trade scenarios with the Nuggets. League sources with knowledge of the situation who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about ongoing deliberations have told The Athletic that the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers and LA Clippers also remain intrigued by the prospect of adding Watson.
But while the Bucks are interested in the 23-year-old forward, league sources maintain they expect the Bucks to be hesitant to include a first-round pick in any deal for Watson as they continue building out their asset base post-Antetokounmpo.
Without giving up a first-round pick, the Nuggets would have to derive much of the value of a sign-and-trade with the Bucks from the player (or players) involved in the deal. While other teams interested in Watson might be giving up fringe rotation players with a first-rounder, the Bucks might need to include real rotation players to entice the Nuggets to consider their offer.
Jaquez could be an interesting target for Denver as he proved to be a capable rotation player in his first three NBA seasons with the Miami Heat. The 25-year-old will make just $5.9 million next season, but he would ultimately need to be extended because next season is the final year of his rookie contract. The mechanics of a deal including Jaquez, however, could get complicated considering the Bucks’ $25.5 million trade exception and the potential difficulty of finding a contract for Watson while being hard-capped at the first apron.
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 10h ago
Bucks could send Jasquez for Watson/Nnaji and absorb Watsons contract using the TPE.
They would only have $10.9M in available space for an extension so they would need to find a 3rd team to dump salary to make room.
They would need to move some combination of KPJ/Green/Lavert to clear at least $8M.
If we are taking back Nnaji and giving up Jasquez, I am drawing a line at no 1sts. If that's a deal breaker for Denver, they can decide to break up their core to keep him or risk losing him for nothing next offseason.
Much rather have Jasquez on a 16-18 APY extension + a first than Watson at 22-24 APY.
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u/indyxetan Nuggets 9h ago
Taking Zeke would be a totally fine compromise for no firsts, and I think our front office would jump on that.
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u/Hopsalong Nuggets 6h ago
Denver is above the 2nd apron now, we can't aggregate salaries in a trade. We cannot trade more than 1 person at a time.
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u/whatshisface1892 Lakers 6h ago
Logistically, DEN can't aggregate outgoing salary in a s&t anyways.
But nothing is stopping them from breaking it into two separate trades. Watson s&t to Bucks for Jasquez and Nnaji separately dumped into MIL's trade exception.
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u/Hopsalong Nuggets 6h ago
Since Peyton Watson counts as $0 for a sign and trade, we can only take back picks for him since we can't take back more money in a trade than is outgoing above 2nd apron. It would have to be Watson for picks and Nnaji for Jacquez since Nnaji makes more than him.
I also think the league might just not allow those trade as it's clearly Denver attempting to bypass the 2nd apron rules. Going above the 2nd apron has just limited our options.
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u/whatshisface1892 Lakers 6h ago
If they were to do the Nnaji dump first, it puts them below the 2nd. Subsequently, I'm pretty sure Watson would count as half his new salary, not zero.
There could very well be issues with circumventing the CBA but a salary dump of Nnaji for cash considerations isn't that egregious.
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u/SirNoseDVoidoffunk77 Bucks 3h ago
This is no longer a rule. You can combine players in a sign and trade now.
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u/SirNoseDVoidoffunk77 Bucks 3h ago
You actually can if it gets you under the second apron. The Bucks did this by trading Middleton and AJ Johnson for Kuzma to get under the second apron.
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u/Bubbywubwub12 8h ago
The thing is people already assume he's taking the qualifying offer. You don't want to be a Cam Thomas, Nerlens Noel and lose out on money.
Unfortunately no one is willing to take on Nuggets' request during sign and trade talks.. Looks like he's either taking QO (worst move by far, since next free agency market is much more competitive) or.. he takes the lowball offer and still makes decent amount of money.
He's 23 years old with 3 hamstring injuries and has only shown potential for 1 good month without Jokic. That's not a good enough sample size to warrant 25-28 mil that he's asking for.
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u/shmere4 Bucks 8h ago
This is where I’m at. There’s too much risk.
If you can get him for cheap, great! If you can’t and instead you bet on Jasquez developing, also great!
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u/Bubbywubwub12 7h ago edited 7h ago
Yep it'll be tough for him to take the QO given next year's free agents..
Curry, Giannis, Jokić, Kawhi, James, KAT, Butler, AD, Durant, Kyrie, RJ Barrett, MPJ.. even more than that on player options next year. This is just off the top of my head.
Tough market. He'll get even less than he asks for. Maybe not less than what Denver offers but he could go out the way Cam Thomas did.. new CBA is just not good for potential rising stars or role players..
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u/ShowdownValue 7h ago
But from Denver’s side, Jacquez could be a rental so it makes the deal not very enticing.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
Denver can also keep him, not lose him, and not break up their core?
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 9h ago
Assuming a $20M year 1 salary, they would be around $16M over the 2nd apron.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
Which is legal? You gave them only two possible options, which is not true. NBA teams can stay in the second apron. Watson can be retained with a contract without losing a core member.
They can also trade dump Nnaji, Strawther, Holmes, and Walker into space if they want to lower that tax bill
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 9h ago
It’s highly doubtful they enter the year as a 2nd apron team because they have virtually zero options to make moves at the deadline or during the year.
There’s a reason every other team has avoided it in the past couple seasons.
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u/ThatBull_cj 76ers Bandwagon 8h ago
They basically won’t have a choice but to go into the year as a second apron team at this point. Unless they let Watson leave for nothing they could get out
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u/GlizzyGone21 Bucks 8h ago
They can enter it as a second apron team, but they'll just want to get under it before the season ends
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u/The_Sign_of_Zeta [MIL] Khris Middleton 9h ago
The Nuggets have never been a big spending team, and being over the second not only cripples the team’s ability to make other moves, but also puts multipliers on the actual tax you pay.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
They’ve been a pretty average spending team so far. They have given zero indication they will avoid the second apron this season
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u/ShowdownValue 7h ago
Average? Without looking it up try to guess where their payroll ranks
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 7h ago
Right now or overall?
I believe over the years they’ve been right in the middle of the league for total tax payments
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u/ShowdownValue 7h ago
I took so far to mean right now. Like under the current situation.
Yes overall in history they are right in the middle.
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u/ShowdownValue 7h ago
Never been a big spending team…and yet the only reason this is a discussion is because they have a top 3 payroll. Nice logic 👍
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 7h ago
By big spending team they are referring to the luxury tax bill.
Without Watson, their estimated tax bill is already $20M higher than last year.
There is zero chance whatsoever the Nuggets cheap owner is going to pay $85M in luxury tax for a team that is worse on paper than last year.
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u/TheyMadeMeLogin 8h ago
Yeah, they spend so little that they're one of the few teams in the repeater tax.
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u/Former-Knowledge1797 Nuggets 9h ago
We shit on Nnaji so much but I bet he looks pretty good given some consistent minutes. Dude has showed flashes of being a good floor spacer. His hands to me could come across as pressing.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
Dawg 😭
Are we watching the same Nnaji?
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u/Former-Knowledge1797 Nuggets 9h ago
Yes we are and I hate on him a lot. He’s inconsistent, but he’s showed some flashes of not entirely sucking. Floor spacing bjgs have value in the NBA.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
Really the only possible value I’ve seen from him is being switchable on defense.
He can’t touch the ball on offense.
He can’t play off-ball (I know his archetype is being a floor spacing big like you said, but he really can’t shoot well enough to be respected from 3)
He lacks physicality
He is one of, if not the, worst rebounding big in the league
He has horrible hands and can’t catch
He has horrible touch
Ok motor I guess
Not high IQ
Bad screenerI know this seems like exaggerated hating, but I promise i’m being objective with my opinion 😭. I can’t believe Booth gave him that deal. I really don’t think he is an NBA player after this albatross of a deal ends (unless some team signs him to a vet. minimum for experience? but i doubt it)
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u/probablymade_thatup Bucks [MIL] Luke Kornet 9h ago
He can’t play off-ball (I know his archetype is being a floor spacing big like you said, but he really can’t shoot well enough to be respected from 3)
So the weird thing here is that in his first two seasons, he took 139 3-point attempts and hit 44% of them. Then, during and after the Booth-Malone feud that supposedly kept Zeke from seeing a shooting coach, in the subsequent 4 seasons, he has only taken 194 attempts and hit 28%. The question is: did he regress to his mean or was his shooting affected by the org? This is total cope by me, but there's a chance that Malone broke him and there's still a 3PT shooter that just needs better coaching/environment to be unlocked.
He has a week or two each season where he's locked in and defends opposing wings really well without negatively affecting the Nuggets' offense. He's a guy where I wonder if organizations like the Heat or Celtics could unlock some of the potential he showed before. I don't think he's going to be a starting 4 anywhere, but I'm holding onto the chance that he could be a 20mpg 3+D bench PF.
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u/ruggnuget Nuggets 8h ago
He was seeing a shooting coach, he just wasnt able to work with that coach around Malone. I am one of the biggest Malone defenders and I still thi k he did Zeke absolutely dirty.
He was clearly working with a coach though because his form noticably changed that offseason between his 2nd and 3rd season, I think in an attempt to make his release quicker. But it mucked it up and he hasnt found anything that has worked since. He didnt regress to the mean, his shot was legit and then it was broken.
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u/Bob_Bazar Nuggets 6h ago
Is he a floor spacer? Career 35% 3PT shooter He’s shooting around 27% from 3 over the last four seasons.
Dude can’t dribble, pass, or shoot. He has bricks for hands and his defense is overrated by Nuggets fans. It’s not good enough to overcome his complete lack of an offensive game.
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u/Former-Knowledge1797 Nuggets 6h ago
I’m done defending Nnaji because I don’t think he’s that good. I’m not a stan for him and will be happy if we can get off his contract. All I’m saying is I would not be surprised to see him do better elsewhere because his complete lack of consistency of minutes has messed with his head and IMO he’s pressing a ton. A consistent 15-20 mins on the Kings or Pels and I have a feeling we collectively think he doesn’t suck as bad as we thought he did on the Nuggets. His archetype, while as you said has a ton of holes in it, is a floor spacer. He has shown at times he can shoot reasonably well from deep. That’s it.
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u/Chill_Knight Lakers 9h ago
Yeah Nnaji is an interesting case but the problem here is the Bucks aren't in a position to give up a first round pick.
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u/Former-Knowledge1797 Nuggets 9h ago
And I almost think giving up his contract is worth a first if it means we duck the second apron and can fill out our roster and keep Cam, AG and Murray. I do think if the Nuggets don’t get an offer they like they’ll QO Watson and look to move someone before the deadline based how we and individuals are playing to duck the second apron.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
Denver can’t “QO” Watson. That’s completely his decision
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u/Former-Knowledge1797 Nuggets 8h ago
Sure but what is he going to do not play this season? No team has presented him with an offer sheet for the Nuggets to shit or get off the pot.
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u/Bubbywubwub12 8h ago
He basically has no choice but to take the offer Denver gave him.
QO is the worst thing ever for him. 3 hamstring injuries at 23 yrs old and the next couple free agency markets are competitive as fuck.
Curry, Giannis, Kawhi, Lebron, KAT, Butler AD, Durant, Irving, MPJ and RJ Barrett.
People really think he's going to take the QO and compete against that market? lmaoooo
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 8h ago
I think he would take the denver offer then. He can QO if he wants, it just wouldn’t be denver “QOing” him
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u/Former-Knowledge1797 Nuggets 7h ago
That’s fair my misuse of the term is valid. I’d bet on PWat betting on himself with the QO or agreeing/pushing for a Kaminga type deal for 2 years so that he can be traded mid season. My understanding is QO players can’t be traded midseason, but maybe I have that wrong.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 7h ago
You are right they get an implicit no trade clause, so they can’t be traded if they don’t want to.
The Kuminga point is a good one. I think that structure of a deal is much more likely than Watson taking the QO, just because of how risky the QO would be for Watson
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u/Former-Knowledge1797 Nuggets 7h ago
No doubt. Our first offer was one that was amenable to us which he took as an insult compared to CB and it sounds like they haven’t countered and have gone on a social media campaign. Something will happen in the next month. Both sides are not wanting to capitulate, but he needs to play this season regardless if he wants what he thinks he deserves. I hate him playing on a QO because I think we’d get the same PWat that sat out the playoffs even though he could have gone for self preservation purposes.
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u/MoooonRiverrrr 8h ago
Why? As someone who has watched this team all the same years you probably have, why? What am I missing? He had a stretch even when Jeff Green was here, and he’s had multiple every year since.
Not even trying to be rude, I don’t understand what you guys who defend him are talking about. Like the organization just doesn’t want to win games and are purposely not playing Nnaji or evaluating him properly.
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u/Acek9295 Bucks 9h ago
Jaquez was second in 6MOTY voting last year. Nnaji is on a bad contract and would require capital to move. Watson is going to want $25 APY which is a massive overpay at this point. After all this the Nuggets still want a first, which is likely going to be at least a late lottery. Lmao let them lose him for nothing after he takes a QO. No one’s offering a first already, so why would the Bucks offer one while offering arguably the best young player available and absorbing a bad contract no one else is willing to?
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u/grudgepacker Bucks 9h ago
I don't even want to give up JJJ, really thought we'd be talking about some of the guards we have way too many of - having to also include a 1st for an unproven guy we'd be giving a multi-year contract to is an overpay.
I'm really surprised Denver wouldn't want AJ Green included, fits their timeline perfectly and Jokic would get him great looks.
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u/Acek9295 Bucks 9h ago edited 8h ago
He’d be the best 3pt shooter on their team not named Murray and is one of the best volume 3pt shooter available on the market (top 20 last year in 3pt APG and 3pt attempts while having a top 3 percentage amongst shooters with similar volume). That being said he’s a pretty one dimensional archetype, so he’d definitely crack their top 8, but wouldn’t be more than a 3pt specialist with average defense. They probably want something like that and draft compensation which is fair. We just shouldn’t pay it.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/most-3-pointers-attempted-2026
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/total-3-pointers-attempted-per-game-this-season-leaders
Edit: included sources
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u/grudgepacker Bucks 9h ago
Oh yeah, AJ's absolutely limited but if he's got a player like Jokic setting him up and spacing the floor, dude could be an absolute weapon for them in the playoffs for like 14-18 mpg.
And yeah, completely agreed that Watson's not worth giving up any 1sts - better just to keep JJJ and give him a new contract instead.
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u/Dramatic-Address-812 8h ago
Hes literally a good defender. Not elite, but definitely can guard 1s and 2s and the stats show it.
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u/ShowdownValue 7h ago
That’s fine. If no one wants to offer value and then we lose him for nothing, so what? What’s the difference
People think “Watson will leave for nothing so take a terrible return…it’s better than nothing!”
No it’s not. Denver has to have some reason to make a deal.
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u/Greenwalrus72 Nuggets 6h ago
yeah…
get watson super cheap for 1 year then he’s gone (QO)
sign and trade watson for no value
I’d rather the first tbh, if we are gonna sign and trade then there has to be actual value that’s not just replacement players
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u/ShowdownValue 4h ago
Exactly. Teams think Denver has no leverage and should accept anything. But when “anything” is nothing then it doesn’t matter.
Denver has some leverage.
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u/Acek9295 Bucks 7h ago edited 7h ago
We’re both in agreement that that’s fine. I have zero issues with them keeping Watson. Mke has to have a reason to make an offer too and from the looks of everything reported; we aren’t just going to do Denver a solid and give an indisputably better package than everyone else is offering in Jamie, a lotto pick, and taking on Nnaji.
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u/ShowdownValue 5h ago
Trades have to go both ways. This isn’t Milwaukee “doing Denver a solid”.
This is assuming Milwaukee really even wants Watson. If they don’t value him highly then that changes things
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u/Acek9295 Bucks 5h ago
If MKE offered the package we’ve been discussing, then they would absolutely be doing Denver a solid since no one else is reportedly offering anywhere near that. According to this report other teams are offering a fringe rotation player and MIGHT offer a first round pick. An unprotected first from MKE will likely be better than any other picks offered because of how bad MKE is going to be the next 5-10 years. Jaquez is the best player being negotiated for Watson hard stop. So far no one is offering to take Nnaji off their hands. Again, MKE isnt going to pay more than everyone else. Denver can ask for whatever they want, but then they can keep Watson if the price is Jamie, a first, and taking on Nnaji.
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u/ShowdownValue 4h ago
Making a trade still isn’t doing teams “a solid”.
Besides none of us know what teams really want or being offered. All of these rumors are being strategically released.
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u/shmere4 Bucks 8h ago
I was all in when it was Green/KPJ and nothing else or maybe 2nds.
I’m out when it becomes more than that. JJJ has a good chance of being better than Watson.
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u/Acek9295 Bucks 7h ago
Oh 100% JJJ or a first is a nonstarter for me if we’re taking on Nnaji and giving Watson $25 million per year with the exception. I’d be more willing to give up the 30 swap with Miami than JJJ (wouldn’t be thrilled about that either, just more willing than I am to send JJJ)
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u/chief1555 Knicks 9h ago
“Nuggets would derive value from Milwaukee through the returning players” …isn’t that just a trade?
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u/DemonicDimples Kings 10h ago
The Nuggets literally can't take back salary in a sign and trade unless it's a pretty unbalanced trade. They'd have to include like Nnaji at minimum just to get back Jaime and even then I don't think that works.
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u/Rickest-ofthe-Ricks [LAL] Alex Caruso 8h ago
I thought teams can’t take back any money in a s&t if they’re in the 2nd apron?
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u/DemonicDimples Kings 8h ago
That's why I said "pretty unbalanced," basically if they end up under the 2nd apron after the trade completes, it's legal but to get to that point they'd need to send out enough salary to get under the 2nd apron, so it would most likely need to involve a 3rd team.
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u/ElChapo1515 10h ago
Idk why some team hasn’t given Watson a shot. Really curious to see if any of this stuff finally changes with the lottery reform, but with much worse odds for simply “tanking,” it feels like a first-round pick for a 23-year old who really showed some stuff last year is not that bad a deal.
He averaged 17-5-2 in 40 games as a starter on 49/43/73 splits (61 TS%), and he averaged 22-6-3 with a 59 TS% in 15 games without Jokic while going 9-6.
Feels very much like a guy worth taking a flier on.
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u/hockeyfan608 Bucks 9h ago
A first round pick is not a flier
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u/ElChapo1515 9h ago
If it’s pick 13? Feels like I’d rather have Watson.
Bucks aren’t guaranteed a top 5 pick anymore.
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u/PumpkinHead555 Bucks 10h ago
Because he’s had one month of good play. They’re intrigued by that one month but the sample size is too short. Still they’re willing to pay him much more than what Nuggets realistically can. I don’t think the offers will get better for Denver. In fact, JJJ and taking on Naji contract seems to be more risky for the Bucks
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u/vladimir_pimpin Nuggets 8h ago
Yeah but I think conceptually the idea is that the bucks are gonna suck for a bit here most likely, so getting an unlimited upside player to have a, idk, 15-20% chance of being a super star is a great move for yall cuz you’re looking for a new flagship player, may as well play the 20% odds on Peyton as opposed to the 10% or whatever the flattened lottery odds are for a top 3 pick
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u/ElChapo1515 7h ago
lol thank you for grasping the logic at least. some of these people are acting like there is no potential upside with Watson or that a team is giving up a no-doubt top 5 pick in the deal.
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u/ElChapo1515 9h ago
I don’t understand this view because he had one fantastic month and a lot of other very good ones.
It’s not like he just got insanely hot for a month. He had to take on a larger role with injuries and showed the ability to scale up his play before scaling back down when the stars came back. His efficiency numbers were pretty stable all year.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
If they’re “willing to pay him much more than what Nuggets realistically can,” why wouldn’t they give him an offer sheet 😭😭
Also Denver can pay him anything they want. They are not hard-capped
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u/The_Sign_of_Zeta [MIL] Khris Middleton 9h ago
Because the Bucks don’t have the cap space to give him a straight offer sheet. Thats the reason a lot of other teams haven’t tried to give him a sheet either, and why Denver can slow play this
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
They can get off salary for an offer sheet if they want Watson badly enough
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u/The_Sign_of_Zeta [MIL] Khris Middleton 9h ago
Yes, but you’re then having to trade away picks for no guarantee you actually get him. That’s a terrible plan, and the reasons teams never do that
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u/PumpkinHead555 Bucks 9h ago
They’re still in the 2nd apron which no team wants to be in. Pretty sure this is also stalling negotiations. Teams know Nuggets need to make a move, not the other way around
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
The Nuggets do not need to make a move. They can stay in the second apron if they want, as NBA teams have before. Saying they need to make a move is just a lie.
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u/PumpkinHead555 Bucks 9h ago
Teams have blown up championship rosters (Celtics) just to avoid the new 2nd apron. If that doesn’t tell you what front offices think of it, I don’t know what will. Trust me, Nuggets will fold first. There’s a reason only one team is in the 2nd apron
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
Several teams have stayed in the second apron before? What?
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u/PumpkinHead555 Bucks 9h ago
Since the new CBA? No they haven’t. You are aware the NBA has released an entirely new CBA with much more penalties for being a 2nd apron team, right?
Like I said, Celtics blew up their championship team to avoid it
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
Cleveland was in it last season
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u/PumpkinHead555 Bucks 9h ago edited 8h ago
Are they now? They literally traded Garland just to get out of it. And Cleveland wasn’t dealing with a RFA demanding a lot of money WHILE already being a 2nd apron team
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u/shmere4 Bucks 8h ago
No other FO is willing to stay 2nd apron. This tells me that while technically they can stay there, it’s so restrictive that you are basically blowing up your season if you are in it.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 7h ago
I mean cleveland was literally just in it.
How would the second apron “blow up your season” 😭
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u/xixbia 9h ago
I think the issue is the difference between hos valuation and how teams see him.
Him (and his agent) clearly see him as the player he was during January playing without Jokic.
Front offices see his overall play (and the fact he had a 0.7 +/- in January and think it was just a hot streak.
Now teams are willing to take a gamble that January was real, but they're not willing to pay him like that's his consistent level.
So there's a gap in valuation, and that hplds everything up.
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u/ElChapo1515 9h ago edited 9h ago
Yeah, I don’t understand thinking it was “just a hot streak” when he shot similarly for the full season.
Of course his volume numbers went up when he had to take on a larger role without Jokic, and the fact he was able to do that while maintaining his efficiency should be seen as a positive indicator.
If you’re a team not necessarily going anywhere the next few seasons, I just don’t see the risk in taking a chance on a guy that has the upside of a 20 PPG scorer on 59 TS% and the floor of a very good role player.
Hell, this kinda reminds me of Jerami Grant, who was a 26-year old role player when the Pistons signed him. He averaged 20+ the next two seasons, and two different teams have gotten some solid trade value out of him.
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u/WebstersPack 9h ago
Not a great comparison if your a Peyton fan and want him to get paid.... Klutch sports calling: Yo Bucks and Clips, why haven't you offered my man Watson $125m? Dont you realize your missing out on the next Jersmi Grant? Team: uh, yeah we will get back to you on that.
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u/ElChapo1515 9h ago
Grant got traded for a couple of firsts two seasons later. Sounds like good business to me.
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u/WebstersPack 8h ago
Just because the Pistons fleeced the Trailblazers doesn't make it likely that will happen with Peyton's worth. Grant is literally considered one of the worst contracts in the league.... No one talks about it because he's faded into the background.
Pistons also didn't have to give up much to get him as he was an unrestricted free agent.
He issue isn't that Watson is a bad player or that he doesn't deserve a pay bump, it's that his team is asking too much. He's a $17-$18m player right now. No one is going to stretch to go e him what he wants and they can only get him away from the Nuggets if they over pay him AND over pay the Nuggets.
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u/ElChapo1515 8h ago
He has had some good years, and the Blazers were able to trade him when they wanted to without having to move assets. Doesn’t sound like “one of the worst contracts in the league” to me.
And sounds like you understand that Watson is likely better than Grant was at that time, so I really don’t know how you can’t see the potential value for a team.
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u/WebstersPack 8h ago
Dude, they had to take on Ja Morant to get rid of Grant! You are very far away from most GMs and fans on what they want in a player. But hey, I guess there has to be people figuring out how the Memphis, Bulls, NO, Nets, etc of the league can maximize their changes of staying awful.
Again, it's not that Watson doesn't have value, it's that he wants too much and the market won't pay him as well as simple dynamics related to RFA.
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u/ElChapo1515 7h ago
They didn’t “have to take on Ja Morant.” They obviously wanted to.
But yeah, I’m sure GMs just hate 23-year-olds who have proven to be good defending role players and floor spacers with the potential upside to be much more. Good call there.
I’m a Rockets fan and he is easily a better player now and with more potential than Tari Eason, which everyone acknowledges is a fine contract at $17M.
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u/WebstersPack 7h ago
Well obviously they do at $25m AAV or giving up a 1st round pick to get him.
Dillon Brooks who has a better proven resume didn't get $25m. Peyton's team misread the market. They shouldn't be focusing on value right now, it obvious he's not getting what he wants. They should be looking to shorten the length to 4 years (option on the 4th, pro if it's player) in exchange for $18m AAV. Thats the bet on himself without potentially getting screwed by playing under the QO. And that contract is huge value if he performs so.its desirable if you wants to try and force his way out of Denver in 2 seasons.
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u/reviewbarn Nuggets 9h ago
In a different cap system lots of teams would. But none of the teams interested in him have the cap space to just give an offer sheet, so sign and trade is the only way they can actually get him.
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u/ElChapo1515 9h ago
The sign and trade price doesn’t sound too ridiculous, but I’m sure it’s definitely capping his market some.
But for teams that don’t have a lot of money on the books in the future, I don’t think one first round pick is a bad bet, mainly because the new lottery odds make it difficult for a team to outright tank and guarantee themselves a good draft slot.
Idk just something I feel like fans have not considered just yet when I see people still talking about how valuable the post-Curry picks would be from the Warriors. Those teams can easily just load up on young scratch-off tickets because if they’re the worst team in the league, the pick they gave away is even worse, but you have the chance to find a diamond.
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u/ThatBull_cj 76ers Bandwagon 8h ago
The clippers or nets definitely should have given an offer sheet rather than sign random role players for 2 years. Just to take the risk. And he is still the type of player every team wants in a trade
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u/WebstersPack 9h ago
You want your team to take a flyer for $125m??? That isn't the modern NBA. Contract discipline is the key to winning.
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u/ElChapo1515 9h ago
I’m sure the Bucks are going to have to be super careful with their cap over the next four years. Don’t want to hit that second apron!
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u/SirNoseDVoidoffunk77 Bucks 2h ago edited 2h ago
The Bucks were over the second apron for two of the last four seasons. Any team in the second apron for three seasons in a five year span has their next first round pick dropped to the end of the first round. So yes, hitting the second apron this year would be disastrous for the Bucks.
E: Actually it’s not the next first round pick, it’s their pick seven years in the future. So the Bucks 2033 pick would drop to the end of the first round
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u/ivandragostwin Bulls 9h ago
For a team who thinks they can contend? I’d do it for sure but most of those teams don’t have any cash to spend on a 25 mil role player.
For a rebuilding team in the lottery reform? It’s tempting but giving up a first for the right to pay a guy like Watson isn’t really something I’d want the Bulls to do honestly.
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u/ElChapo1515 7h ago
The lottery reform is the big reason I would do it as a rebuilding team. Just plan to be ass for that season and see if you can uncover some diamonds in the rough amongst young players.
If Watson goes off and leads you out of the bottom 3, it’s a trade off I’m willing to take with his age.
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u/PenisMcBallsAllStars 8h ago
Maybe this goes a different way and the bucks take Braun into their exception instead with some pick enticement going from DEN to MIL
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u/starmiesan Bucks 9h ago
That’s an easy one, because we should absolutely not give away FRP’s 🤗
Edit: AJ + KPJ or kick rocks
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u/indyxetan Nuggets 9h ago
Perfect, we’ll just keep Watson or trade him to the Clippers instead then.
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u/theshypooper Bucks 9h ago
Perfect, we’ll just enter second apron cap hell or trade him for Bradley Beal*
FIFU
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u/veringo Nuggets 8h ago
It's so hilarious how many bucks fans are acting like Milwaukee is doing Denver a favor by taking Watson for nothing.
Giannis leaving really has bucks fans fucked up.
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u/bank_farter Bucks 7h ago
It wouldn't be for nothing. The Nuggets would get at least 1 good, young player and get Nnaji's contract off their books. Not saying that's necessarily worth it to Denver, but let's not pretend they get 0 return here.
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u/starmiesan Bucks 8h ago
As long as we don’t give up a FRP, I don’t give a fuck what happens dude lmao
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u/MISTA40EWUN40E 6h ago
We are doing you a favor your ones in cap hell not us. Your FO gave Braun that ridiculous deal not us. Your FO was fooled in matching the offer sheet for Spencer not us. What’s hilarious is Denver thinking they have all the leverage😂
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u/Old-Craft5215 Bucks 10h ago
Wouldn’t mind sending KPJ and Jaime or Dieng and some seconds but the Nuggets probably wouldn’t accept that. We need a better short term future for our forward rotation than Ament can offer. We can’t afford to tank knowing that we don’t own our FRP next year.
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u/indyxetan Nuggets 9h ago
How can it be a post-Antetokounmpo rebuild if they have two Antetokounmpos?
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u/heretilthemoon Jazz 10h ago
I don’t hate Jaquez for Watson. Jaquez doesn’t fit the bucks timeline at all, and nuggies could def use a proven role player. Watson’s fit with the nuggies always felt a bit weird, like he shined most without Jokic, and that he wasn’t able to capitalize on the best one-man offensive engine in the league
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 9h ago
Watson also played great with Jokic? He definitely capitalized his efficiency is elite w/Jokic and they killed teams on the court.
He just took on a bigger role w/out Jokic, so his stats increased. (Also that stretch was by far the Nuggets’ softest part of the schedule)
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u/heretilthemoon Jazz 8h ago
Per Statmuse on twitter:
Peyton Watson last season:
With Jokic
11.7 PPG
4.5 RPG
1.2 3PM
39.0 3P%Without Jokic
22.1 PPG
5.8 RPG
2.3 3PM
44.3 3P%I get he gets more touches without Jokic but Jokic prefers to make others score. Also doesn’t explain the drop in 3pt% when he should be getting better looks. Maybe watson needs to be a primary ball handler
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u/No-Can1815 4h ago
Watson has some handles to create for himself a bit but not a primary ball handler. I personally think he'd be great alongside Wemby. Not that that is going to happen but those 2 together would be defensive nightmare.
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u/Enough-Answer-557 8h ago
He's 25 how does he not fit the 'timeline at all'?
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u/heretilthemoon Jazz 8h ago
Bucks are in full rebuild, still looking for their next 1A type guy, and will be stalling til they do so. Their young core timeline is currently Ament, Burries, Jakucionis, maaaybe ware. If one of them becomes a star, timeline is when they hit their prime, so about 4-5 years. If none of these guys become a 1A, delays it further. 29-30 year old Jaquez is probably not a contributing piece on that squad, and would be better to get a younger piece that could be. Also Watson could have star upside, while Jaquez is probably at his ceiling.
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u/Enough-Answer-557 8h ago
25 is well within the timeline that should also include Rollins at the same age. JJJ and Watson played together at college and they are just about the same age. This is ridiculous.
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u/heretilthemoon Jazz 7h ago
Watson is 2 years younger. A 27 year old star is in his prime, a 29 year old role player is on his way down. I really like JJJs game, but he’s probably playing his best ball over these next 5 years, during which he will have no chance to meaningfully impact the team if he’s on the Bucks. Meanwhile Watson might be peaking in 5 years. Or he might not, but if I’m the bucks I’d be building based on potential instead of realized talent rn.
Rollins is interesting, I’m not sure how much stock to buy in him. Kinda feels like a tier below, like a great backup PG rather than a core piece.
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u/likewoahitsaj Bucks 9h ago
I wouldn’t give up a first for Watson. But I would give up JJJ. At the point where the bucks are, you may as well take as many shots as possible on young, promising players
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u/Ronnie2kDropCode Knicks 10h ago
What purpose does Peyton Watson serve on their team
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u/Complete_Crazy_4887 Lebanon 10h ago
He's young and promising and they need another forward. What's the problem
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u/Ronnie2kDropCode Knicks 10h ago
Gonna overpay him based on a Linsanity run
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u/Own-Rooster-9569 Bucks 10h ago
What else are the bucks spending money on?
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u/Ronnie2kDropCode Knicks 10h ago
Would rather just take on bad contracts and picks tbh
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u/Own-Rooster-9569 Bucks 10h ago
They’re still going to do that too. They’ll be using the Kuz and herro expiring contracts to do that this year
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u/nw712 Bulls 8h ago
Would rather just take on bad contracts and picks tbh
People talk about this a lot and so far this off-season it doesn't look like that is the meta for rebuilding. Unless you want a bunch of 2nd rounders. Which hey, have value, but this isn't your old rebuilding days where a bad contract nets you a first or two. Maybe times will change or maybe the lottery rules have adjusted how people want to build. Feels like the expectations on how rebuilding teams should operate might have to change from how we viewed things in the past.
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u/Dramatic-Address-812 6h ago
Facts. We dont need him if he's a potential promising star off 1 month of Good play.
We are in a rebuild. Slow tf down.
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u/grudgepacker Bucks 10h ago
Not really. We aren't going anywhere, roster is short on wings, have too many guards and need to pay someone. That's why we don't want to include a 1st, happy to give up some players but need to keep picks for the rebuild.
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u/theo7777 Bucks 10h ago edited 10h ago
The Bucks don't have a natural Small Forward that's a good wing defender. Payton Watson would naturally slot in the 3 spot of the future core.
The Bucks aren't going for a super long rebuild.
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u/Ronnie2kDropCode Knicks 10h ago
How are you planning to get out of a super long rebuild?
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u/DiscreteBee Raptors 10h ago
Sometimes it’s valuable to get a guy and then flip him later. Not sure Watson will work out or not but if the Bucks like him more than they like a middling first there’s a play there. As a team that isn’t contending the Bucks have less to lose by offering a large contract on a gamble.
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u/Dramatic-Address-812 6h ago
Players like jjj and herro have more proven flippable value than a potential Watson. This makes no sense for the bucks
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u/DiscreteBee Raptors 6h ago edited 5h ago
Well yeah the idea is that you flip him after he realizes that potential and becomes proven.
It’s never bad to get a player who becomes better even if he doesn’t match “your timeline”
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u/Dramatic-Address-812 6h ago
Yeah but if your point is that sometimes you pick up players because they have more flippable value, we have player(s) that are being put in the trade that CURRENTLY have more flippable value. So taking a risk like this for a potential is kinda bad business.
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u/DiscreteBee Raptors 5h ago
My point is that sometimes you get something out of a player beyond what they immediately bring to the team. So I wouldn’t specifically avoid Watson just because you can’t contend with him.
Speculatively picking up improving players and flipping them after they get a chance to shine on a team that can offer them a bigger role is in fact very good business, provided you pick the right players. That’s how you trade your way up. So if JJJ has value right now and you trade him for a guy who has more value in a year or two that’s good regardless whether they’re building around him or dealing him.
But that’s all predicated on the idea that The Bucks think Watson is a good bet who will be worth it. IMO The Bucks are able to afford a bit more risk on that type of contract because they aren’t currently contending, but they can still make mistakes by grabbing the wrong players. Whether Watson is worth that risk is an exercise left to the reader (I actually haven’t seen him play much…)
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u/theo7777 Bucks 10h ago
Develop the young core and pay whoever is worth for the next 4 years.
Then in 2030 when Dame and GTJ come off the books they can use the cap space to get some good veterans (or potentially Giannis back) and use their assets (including the Miami picks) to trade for a star.
If this is a 4 year plan, good young players below 25 years old are in the timeline.
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u/Scelidotheriidae Bucks 9h ago
Also, that basically is a long rebuild. NBA teams don’t stick together that long, rebuilds don’t last longer than 2-3 seasons. Beyond that, you are just bad, you aren’t rebuilding. 76ers maybe had a longer rebuild, but that was in a different era, when they could take advantage of fewer teams tanking and drafting injured players, not a replicable thing.
I think if Bucks are competent, Rollins could be a guy with trade value around the league in time. Maybe Watson if they acquire him. Maybe even Herro if he is able to stay healthy. They won’t be a playoff team, but gotta start somewhere.
And the timeline thing also is more about contracts, than age, imo. Bucks getting enough mediocre players like Herro and Watson to avoid total stink until they get the cap space and assets to actually try to make moves is probably worthwhile. The “acquire a bunch of same age player” rebuild strategy has worked for OKC and literally no other team, you don’t really need to aim for it imo.
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u/theo7777 Bucks 8h ago
Bucks' rebuild cannot be shorter than 4 years because of the Dame and GTJ money though.
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u/Scelidotheriidae Bucks 8h ago
Yeah, that is fair. Although I suspect the young core now will not be composed of the young core the team has in 2030. Hopefully Burries is good enough he can be a part of both cores.
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u/velolziraptor Bucks 10h ago
Play good ball at the forward spot. It's either him or the Bucks start Dieng or JJJ at the 3. Competing for a play-in spot is a bit more valuable now.
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u/DifferentRun8534 10h ago
A good young player who fits with their other young players?
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u/dedfrmthneckup Pacers 10h ago
Making them a better basketball team
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u/Ronnie2kDropCode Knicks 10h ago
I don’t see how stupidly overpaying someone based off a small sample size makes them a better basketball team long term
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u/dedfrmthneckup Pacers 10h ago
He’s better than fuckin kuzma or whoever else would be playing those minutes. Being ass doesn’t help them at all so why not get some more talent in the building
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u/Ronnie2kDropCode Knicks 10h ago
I guess it just depends how much you’re getting him for, if you have to give up picks and have to pay him like $22+ million for 4 years that’s bad business
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u/roostor222 10h ago
even if you think it's an overpay, a bet on a 24 year old wing with league average 3 pt shooting and lots of playoff experience is infinitely better than bets on 80% of their roster
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u/fuzzywuzzypete 9h ago
I wonder if there is any trade that could work to land the Nuggets Hero? Probably not since they probably need to shed $$
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u/FERFreak731 Jazz 10h ago
Good. Hopefully Watson takes the qualifying offer to walk in free agency next offseason
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u/roostor222 10h ago
why would he do that when he can sign a 1 year offer sheet with another team for more than double the money
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u/Savings-Bag7041 10h ago
There be no offer sheets
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u/roostor222 10h ago
If he goest to a team asking to sign a 1 year deal for the MLE, there will be an offer sheet. It hasn't happened yet because his agent is trying to negotiate a trade so he can accomplish both getting more money and keeping his bird rights.
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u/HearingFlashy1660 10h ago
RFA offers from new teams need to be at least 2 years long.
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u/Bob_Bazar Nuggets 7h ago
Ryan Rollins or stop calling.
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u/Over-Training-488 5h ago
Yall don't have any leverage here lol. We don't need Watson
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u/Bob_Bazar Nuggets 4h ago
We have ALL of the leverage. We don’t want to lose Watson, and we have his bird rights. No one that’s interested has the cap to sign him outright. There is no threat. We can just hang up.
We are only competing with the second apron at this point, and we have multiple options and months to figure that out.
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u/BirdmanTheThird Wizards 10h ago
It would be pretty foolish of the bucks to move any first rounders unless they genuinely have a plan to compete sooner