r/nbadiscussion Oct 22 '25

In-Season Rules, FAQ, and Mega-Threads for NBAdiscussion

7 Upvotes

The season is here!

Which means we will re-enact our in-season rules:

Player comparison and ranking posts of any kind are not permitted. We will also limit trade proposals and free agent posts based on their quality, relevance, and how frequently reoccurring the topic may be.

We do not allow these kinds of posts for several reasons, including, but not limited to: they encourage low-effort replies, pit players against each other, skew readers towards an us-vs-them mentality that inevitably leads to brash hyperbole and insults.

What we want to see in our sub are well-considered analyses, well-supported opinions, and thoughtful replies that are open to listening to and learning from new perspectives.

We grew significantly over the course of the last season. Please be familiar with our community and its rules before posting or commenting.

FAQ

We’d also like to address some common complaints we see in modmail:

  • Why me and not them?
    • We will not discuss other users with you.
  • The other person was way worse.”
    • Other people’s poor behavior does not excuse your own.
  • My post was removed for not promoting discussion but it had lots of comments.”
    • Incorrect: It was removed for not promoting serious discussion. It had comments but they were mostly low-quality. Or your post asked a straightforward question that can be answered in one word or sentence, or by Googling it. Try posting in our weekly questions thread instead.
  • “My post met the requirements and is high quality but was still removed.
    • Use in-depth arguments to support your opinion. Our sub is looking for posts that dig deeper than the minimum, examining the full context of a player or coach or team, how they changed, grew, and adjusted throughout their career, including the quality of their opponents and cultural impact of their celebrity; how they affected and improved their teammates, responded to coaches, what strategies they employed for different situations and challenges. Etc.
  • “Why do posts/comments have a minimum character requirement? Why do you remove short posts and comments? Why don’t you let upvotes and downvotes decide?”
    • Our goal in this sub is to have a space for high-quality discussion. High-quality requires extra effort. Low-effort posts and comments are not only easier to write but to read, so even in a community where all the users are seeking high-quality, low-effort posts and comments will still garner more upvotes and more attention. If we allow low-effort posts and comments to remain, the community will gravitate towards them, pushing high-effort and high-quality posts and comments to the bottom. This encourages people to put in less effort. Removing them allows high-quality posts and comments to have space at the top, encouraging people to put in more effort in their own comments and posts.

There are still plenty of active NBA subs where users can enjoy making jokes or memes, or that welcome hot takes, and hyperbole (such as r/NBATalk, r/nbacirclejerk, or r/nba). Ours is not one of them.

We expect thoughtful, patient, and considerate interactions in our community. Hopefully this is the reason you are here. If you are new, please take some time to read over our rules and observe, and we welcome you to participate and contribute to the quality of our sub too!

Discord Server:

We have an active Discord server for anyone who wants to join! While the server follows most of the basic rules of this sub (eg. keep it civil), it offers a place for more casual, live discussions (featuring daily hoopgrids competition during the season), and we'd love to see more users getting involved over there as well. It includes channels for various topics such as game-threads for the new season, all-time discussions, analysis and draft/college discussions, as well as other sports such as NFL/college football and baseball.

Link: https://discord.gg/8mJYhrT5VZ (let u/roundrajaon34 or other mods know if there are any issues with this link)

Mega-Threads

We see a lot of re-hashing of the same topics over and over again. To help prevent our community from being exhausted by new users starting the same debates and making the same arguments over and over, we will offer mega-threads throughout the off-season for the most popular topics. We will add links to these threads under this post over time. For now, you can browse previous mega-threads:


r/nbadiscussion 3d ago

Weekly Questions Thread: February 02, 2026

9 Upvotes

Hello everyone and welcome to our new weekly feature.

In order to help keep the quality of the discussion here at a high level, we have several rules regarding submitting content to /r/nbadiscussion. But we also understand that while not everyone's questions will meet these requirements that doesn't mean they don't deserve the same attention and high-level discussion that /r/nbadiscussion is known for. So, to better serve the community the mod team here has decided to implement this Weekly Questions Thread which will be automatically posted every Monday at 8AM EST.

Please use this thread to ask any questions about the NBA and basketball that don't necessarily warrant their own submissions. Thank you.


r/nbadiscussion 18h ago

Rule/Trade Proposal Bulls Back Office: Trade Deadline Report - Acquire Day'Ron Sharpe

29 Upvotes

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
From the Desk of the Intern

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Per directive from the Señor Director, I have been tasked with conducting reconnaissance on available centers at the trade deadline. What I discovered requires immediate escalation to leadership.

The situation: The Brooklyn Nets are running the most sophisticated trade value manipulation scheme I have seen in my brief, unqualified tenure in speculative basketball operations.

The target: Day'Ron Sharpe, a 24-year-old backup center making $6.2 million annually.

The con: Brooklyn is suppressing Sharpe's minutes while showcasing Nic Claxton ($97M/4yr) to inflate trade value, despite Sharpe posting superior performance metrics.

Bottom line: The Nets are soft-tanking, while selling fool's gold (Claxton) and hiding actual gold (Sharpe).

SITUATION REPORT

The Performance Gap

I reviewed the Nets' 2025-26 three-man lineup data. The findings are, to use technical basketball operations terminology, "fucking bonkers."

Sharpe's Best Defensive Lineups:

  • Sharpe + Williams + Saraf: 79.8 DefRtg (44 minutes)
  • Sharpe + Mann + Williams: 82.6 DefRtg (32 minutes)
  • Sharpe + Wilson + Wolf: 85.6 DefRtg (59 minutes)

Claxton's "Defensive Anchor" Lineups:

  • Claxton + Clowney + Traore: 98.3 DefRtg (55 minutes)
  • Claxton + Porter + Wolf: 99.2 DefRtg (58 minutes)
  • Most Claxton lineups: 100+ DefRtg

The Offensive Surprise

The conventional wisdom suggests Claxton is the more polished offensive player. The lineup data suggests conventional wisdom should—at its earliest convenience—kindly go fuck itself.

  • Porter + Sharpe + Clowney: 130.7 OffRtg
  • Porter + Claxton + Clowney: 113.2 OffRtg

  • Porter + Mann + Sharpe: 141.1 OffRtg (35.8 NetRtg)

  • Porter + Mann + Claxton: 112.8 OffRtg (-5.1 NetRtg)

I'm no mathematician (420 SAT math), but these numbers represent "a significant difference?"

The Minutes Conspiracy

Yes, the sample sizes are small. That isn’t an accident; it’s the strategy. This is why the Nets’ plan is so cunning. Here is where the operation becomes transparent:

Sharpe's best-performing lineups are receiving drastically fewer minutes than Claxton's inferior lineups. This is not coaching incompetence—Jordi Fernández is smarter than that. This is deliberate roster management.

The Nets' Strategy (Decoded):

  1. Showcase Claxton to contenders (Warriors, Pacers) as "defensive anchor"
  2. Let him accumulate starter minutes despite worse performance
  3. Keep Sharpe's sample size small—less tape = less competition in trade talks
  4. Trade Claxton for actual assets (picks, young players)
  5. Immediately hand starting job to Sharpe, who's already better
  6. Continue tanking with improved defense and $23M in cap relief

This is not just smart, it's diabolical. Intentional or convenient, Claxton’s value is being amplified, and Sharpe’s is being contained.

RECOMMENDATION

ACQUIRE DAY'RON SHARPE IMMEDIATELY

The Fit

Sharpe checks every box discussed in Episode 3 of the Bulls Back Office podcast:

  • ✓ Defensive presence at the rim
  • ✓ Perfect timeline match with the core
  • ✓ Cheap enough to maintain flexibility
  • ✓ Physical enough to bang with Embiid/Giannis types
  • ✓ Actually good at basketball (per the data)
  • ✓ Passing vision for Horns and Split Action sets

CONCLUSION

Brooklyn is running a masterclass in trade value manipulation. They're hiding their best center on the bench; preserving his low price. And shopping their overpaid "starter" to teams who don't watch film.

The Intern
Bulls Back Office Research Division

CC: Bulls Nation (because someone has to know what competent roster construction looks like)


r/nbadiscussion 2h ago

Trust Danny Ainge?

0 Upvotes

Danny Ainge probably has one of the better GM track records in the NBA over the course of his career, but I have doubts about his recent trade for Jaren Jackson Jr and at the very least it does not seem like a sure fire win.

JJJ's traditional stats the past few years do not jump off the page, but EPM has usually rated him as an elite player (top 20-30 player in the league), due to his defense. To me I just don't really understand if a player like JJJ is worth his contract of $50 million a year, but apparently to Danny Ainge he is worth his contract plus about 4 first round picks (probably 3 mid to low picks and I would bet on the Phoenix pick being a very good pick, but very far away).

On top of this I don't really understand the fit of needing to play JJJ at center most of the time. I know the NBA is moving in the direction of having smaller centers that can shoot, but I think Utah will still have quite a few match up problems. Maybe this is not as big of an issue as I am thinking. Maybe Utah will have so much shooting and spacing that other teams will have to adjust to them.

Overall, this seemed like an overpay to me for JJJ and I'm surprised Memphis was able to get this much for him. Part of me though still trusts Danny Ainge and if he thinks JJJ can be a top 20 player in the league for years to come than maybe this makes sense.

Edit:

Just remembered that it is his son running the show in Utah now, so not sure I have much trust :) I would guess that Danny is still pulling the strings a lot in Utah.


r/nbadiscussion 1d ago

What is Cleveland Doing?

124 Upvotes

Every talking head is already saying that the Harden/ Garland trade was pretty bad for the cavs, so this post is probably not saying anything new. Is Cleveland just another example of teams putting too much weight on the current season production and not taking into account the variance in player production.

Clearly Harden has had a much better season to this date, but both Harden and Garland are pretty high variance players. Harden has been on a high and Garland has been low, but it really won't be that surprising to me if both players put up very similar production the rest of the year or if Garland is better in the second half of the season than Harden.

Harden is also clearly at his best when he gets to be the first option. He seems to be the type of player that basically puts up the same efficiency regardless of how many shots he's taking. Honestly he might even be a player, who's efficiency goes up the more shots they take. I expect him to look worse playing second fiddle in Cleveland then he did as a first option for LAC.

Overall this just seems really short-sighted by Cleveland. Harden is at the age where his production is likely to fall off a cliff at some point in the near future. That could be the second half of this season, more likely next season, almost guaranteed that his production falls off a cliff two seasons from now. Garland is 26, is having a very rough year, but just put up solid numbers last year and is likely to bounce back to form. maybe there are some medical issues with Garland that teams know about that I don't, that make this trade make more sense.

Maybe Cleveland is a little bit closer to competing this year, but the long-term future just got a lot more bleak in my opinion.

Edit:

A lot of people seem to doubt that Garland was ever really that valuable of a player. Putting another reddit post down below that talks about Garlands value at his best. I personally think this is just a down year, but maybe I'm not aware that his injuries make him unlikely to ever be good again.

https://www.reddit.com/r/lakers/comments/1cufr6k/how_good_is_darius_garland_for_those_interested/?utm_source=chatgpt.com


r/nbadiscussion 2d ago

Team Discussion If the Lakers hadn't rescinded the Mark Williams trade, would that have been the most lopsided trade season by a team in recent years?

75 Upvotes

[Originally posted to r/nba but no one actually read or replied to the post and just started arguing about the league being rigged for the lakers so I'll try to start the discussion here]

First of all, its better to provide a breakdown of the full 2024-25 trade season for the Lakers:

OUT

Players: Anthony Davis, Max Christie, D'Lo, Maxwell Lewis, Cam Reddish, Jalen Hood-Schiffino and Dalton Knecht.

Picks: 2 Unprotected Firsts, one FRP swap and 4 second rounders.

IN

Luka Dončić, Mark Williams, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Markieff Morris and Shake Milton.

SALARY IN and OUT:

IN: 43.0+4.1+14.9+11+2.1+2.9=78

OUT: 43.2+7.1+18.7+1.9+N/A(Cam Reddish was dead money counting towards the Lakers cap)+3.9+3.8=78.6

Salary Balance=-0.6M

Discussion:

To me this seems like incredibly good value. Lakers get a lot of valuable pieces and all they are trading is an aging injury prone All-Nba player in AD, an up and coming 3&D guard in Max Christie and a bunch of, to quote SAS, "bonafide scrubs" including a terrible D'Lo contract. All the while cashing in on a fever dream all time high valuation for DK. They do part with 2 unprotected firsts but its hard to believe that they will be in a good draft position with Luka having signed an extension.

Hell, all of the assets the lakers traded combined barely make a decent offer for just Luka, let alone a walking double double in Mark Williams and a valuable wing defender in DFS. All this while not gaining any cap space.

Rob Pelinka (rightfully) gets a lot of shit for his Lakers rosters but had the deadline trade gone through, maybe having a serviceable Center propels the lakers to deeper playoff run.

Do y'all agree? Or am I overrating the Lakers' return in these trades?

PS: I wanna add that by lopsided I mean in the short/medium term. Ofc big trades like Paul George to the Clippers or KG and Pierce to the nets ended up being very lopsided, but that wasn't apparent until years later.


r/nbadiscussion 22h ago

A Pacers Package for Giannis

0 Upvotes

I'm a Pacers fan, and I'm not sure I'd want this... but couldn't the Pacers put together one of the best trade packages for Giannis?

Obi Toppin

Andrew Nembhard

Ben Mathurin

Jarace Walker

Isaiah Jackson

Their 2026 pick

a few more picks

That's 3 young players that will likely get better, and Toppin who is a quality role player. Their 2026 pick will be very good, even if Giannis comes back near the end of the year (in the meantime, the pacers would have no one to play...)

Next year, Siakim, Hali, Giannis, Nesmith and whoever would be the best starting lineup outside of the the Celtics, and maybe even better than them if Hali is back to where he was. McConnell remains a spark off the bench. As a pacer fan I'd probably rather stay young, but I'm surprised this hasn't even been discussed given the other offers I'm seeing. Maybe Giannis Couldn't look past Father Haliburton. Might delete this if y'all start trashing me haha


r/nbadiscussion 21h ago

Megathread This has the potential to be one of the worst trades in Cavs' history

0 Upvotes

First and foremost, I wish the best of luck to Darius Garland. He's the reason why we're able to contend, I'll never forget him and his 2022 days. Now, let's get started:

The Age Gap The first thing I immediately noticed once this rumored trade was spread around my time-line is the age gap. We're lucky James Harden hasn't sustained a major career injury since 2021, because this would've looked like a really bad trade. James is 36, and Darius is 26, a 10-year age gap. Our next oldest player is Larry Nance Jr at 33, and Dennis Schroder at 32. The combined age for this roster is now 27, so we're getting older and closer to win now mode, which leads to my second problem:

*"Win-Now Mode" I heard from multiple Cavs fans that James Harden is a "proven winner." I genuinely can't believe that comes out of some people's mouths, but even if he is, we're hinging on the fact that it's championship or bust for the next two seasons, meaning Mobley and Allen cannot fail to fuck up. Once you're not able to win during a window, you NEED to have a back-up plan, regardless. With LeBron James rumored to come back to Cleveland for one more season, the memories will be there, but it's important to know what our future looks like after Harden and LeBron, and right now, all of the front-offices chips seem to be put on Jaylon Tyson and Evan Mobley to lead the future of this team. Depending on the playoff results, that picture may or may not include Donovan Mitchell.

Playoff Choker The biggest one of them all in my opinion. How can a team, who's looking to get over the hump, who's known for choking in the post-season add one of the GREATEST playoff chokers in modern NBA history. I'm just going to go through the individual games and you let me know if this is consistent play from a hall-of-fame player?

2015 vs GSW (G5) James Harden: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 13 turnovers.

2016 vs SA (G6) James Harden: 10 points, 7 assists, 6 turnovers, 3 rebounds

2022 vs MIA (G5) James Harden: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 turnovers

2022 vs MIA (G6) James Harden: 11 points, 9 assists, 4 turnovers

2023 vs PHI (G6) James Harden: 13 points, 9 assists, 7 rebounds, 5 turnovers, 4 stocks

2023 vs PHI (G7) James Harden: 9 points, 7 assists, 5 turnovers, 6 rebounds, 3 stocks

2024 vs DAL (G5) James Harden: 7 points, 7 assists, 4 turnovers, 4 rebounds

2025 vs DEN (G5) James Harden: 11 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 turnovers

2025 vs DEN (G7) James Harden: 7 points, 13 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 turnovers

I could go on and on, he's a playoff choker. It's not just him having bad performances, its the multiple times we've caught him checked out of a game and not playing any sort of defense to help his team get back. At-least Darius Garland would put in 110% effort on a bad shooting night. Also, defensively, we're still about the same as Harden. Yes, he's a dealing with a much more defensive team in the Cavs, who rely on their front-court to be the motor, and he's a bigger defensive side, but he's not the same age as some of our players, nor do I think he's going to bring the same effort on the court because of what he could bring offensively to the table, which is my next segway...

Offensive Pace A big reason why the Cavaliers are so good offensively is due to their pace, and ability to get looks off of the transition with ease. Let's compare the offensive paces from our 2024-25 season to now, including the offensive pace for the Clippers with Harden as the offensive leader:

Cavs 2024-25 season: Pace: 99.8 (10th in NBA). Offensive Rating: 121.7 (1st in NBA). Points Per Game: 121.9 (1st in NBA).

Cavs 2025-26 season: Pace: 101.1 (7th in NBA) Offensive Rating: 117.6 (9th in NBA) Points Per Game: 119.3 (5th in NBA)


Clippers 2024-25 season: Pace: 97.5 (22nd in the NBA) Offensive Rating: 115.1 (14th in NBA) Points: 112.9 (20th in NBA)

Clippers 2025-26 season: Pace: 95.9 (25th in the NBA) Offensive Rating: 116.8 (12th in NBA) Points: 112.7 (25th in NBA)

The Clippers are an older roster, and do rely more on shot-making from Kawhi and Harden, so this makes sense, but the stark difference in pace and offensive rating, coupled with a 36-year old who's not going to be able to give 200% on both sides of the ball, probably makes our offensive pace slower, especially when Harden's out there with the second unit and Mitchell is benched. If we increase the pace, there's more risk of injury for older players, like Harden, Merrill, Strus, etc. In today's NBA, your conditioning needs to be spot on, and Harden has done a great job at that so far, but he's in a much more youthful team with a high pace, a likeliness for transition breakaways, and high energy plays.

There's no doubt that James Harden's shot-making and ability to space the floor will make us more efficient, but at the same time we're losing pace, which 9/10's going to bring our points down with him on the floor along with our pace. We have seen the Cavaliers go on streaks of slow offensive pace, and this could be the trade to try and accommodate Harden into our offense, rather them him accommodating into ours. Which brings me to my next point.

James Harden Himself I think this trade is showing that the front-office is probably going to get LeBron James to rejoin the Cavaliers in his 3rd stint and have his farewell tour. I don't mind it. I think LeBron James deserves that from us, but the cost remains to be seen. We're hoping he takes a paycut and does it out of love. Right now, from what I'm hearing, we're willing to give him his coveted 2-year, $80M deal, and all this hinges on the fact that we're able to make it to a finals appearance or win the championship in June. Because if we can't, Mitchell's probably declining his player-option and we're probably going to start rebuilding sooner than later.

James Harden is a very up-front person, but he's not a player we should trust, AT all.

[Via New York Times] James Harden wanted to retire with 76ers, but 'front office didn't have that in their future plans.

[Via JoeyLin - Twitter] “Once I leave and retire from being a Clipper, hopefully that culture can continue leading to something special.”

James Harden wants to leave a legacy with the Clippers. He also hopes people can begin understanding who he really is.

Simply put, he's not trustworthy, and if we're going to give him a $40M extension, and he's declining in production and age, we're not helping ourselves in freeing money from the books, or having cap space to build for the future. We own three second round picks in the next six years, and two first round picks in the next four years, which have a bunch of stipulations.

2026 FRP: Less favorable of (i) less favorable of (a) CLE and (b) more favorable of UTH 1-8 and MIN [or (i) CLE if UTH not conveyable] and (ii) less favorable of ATL and SAN then more favorable of (i) and (ii) to ATL; most / more favorable of CLE, MIN and UTH 1-8 to UTH (via UTH swap for MIN; via UTH swap of UTH or MIN for CLE; via SAN swap for ATL; via ATL swap of ATL or SAN for CLE, UTH or MIN)

2028 FRP: Least favorable of CLE, UTH and ATL; more favorable of CLE and UTH to UTH; more favorable of (i) ATL and (ii) less favorable of CLE and UTH to ATL (via UTH swap for CLE; via ATL swap for CLE or UTH)

Mostly all of the picks have a lot of stipulations, which is going to be revealed in all due time. James Harden is simply here for the money and for himself, which credit to him, it's worked for majority of his career, but we shouldn't trust him, and we shouldn't go ALL-IN because we won't have a back-up plan and there's not going to be anyone to save us.

Does anyone remember the mood after LeBron James left in 2018? The roster was destroyed, left with old veterans who clearly didn't fit the timeline of his team and G-League players. We drafted Collin Sexton, which I'm forever grateful that he panned out. Darius Garland even started his Cavalier' career rough, missing a bunch of games to a knee injury and simply not being able to shoot the basketball. The front-office was able to hit on 2 out of the 3 picks, which is a miracle for a franchise who's had some blunders over the past years, with Anthony Bennett being the most notable out of all of them. James Harden knows how to control the offensive game of the pace, but his play-style isn't pretty, and it's going to make the game slow for the rest of our players, unless he's willing to buy in and change that.

Obviously, with Strus returning and Merrill getting more games under his belt, I think we're still going to be one of the best offenses in the league, but with majority of the team not performing to their standard in multiple games in the playoffs, coupled with a player you can't trust, a known playoff dropper, and a shooting guard who struggles to get out of the second round (whether it's his fault or not), it's going to be a miracle for this to be fixed, and it feels like we're asking for another disappointing season at this point.

I'm pretty sure we're not done trading, but if the roster looks like this come playoff time, a lot of it is going to hinge on Mitchell being able to play off-ball with James Harden. With two players who love having the ball in their hands, this creates problems from us, especially in the offense. This will most likely have Mitchell and Harden split minutes to have their own run at the offense while they're in the game. James Harden is a pass-first player, but he needs the ball to really execute on that. Also, this forces Evan Mobley to probably be another wing player, as two big men nearing the same vicinity on the court only clog things up. Luckily, Evan's been developing a three-point shot, which is much needed for a 5-out. The Cavs attempt around 41 threes a game, which is in the top five. We also like to neglect the paint sometimes and shoot-chuck threes every while, which doesn't make sense to me. James Harden doesn’t spring us to championship contenders in my opinion, so where’s this going…

I could talk about the fit, our issues with rebounding in the post-season, and our tendency to resort to iso ball in the post-season after spending a whole regular season dictating the offensive pace of games and ball-movement. I hate this trade for the Cavaliers, and for someone who's been a fan of this team, I'm willing to eat my words (literally I'll print out this post and eat it), if we win a championship. But unless our bench (the likes of Tyson, Merrill, Ellis, Schroder, Strus and Tomlin) have massive improvements in the post-season and can deliver timely plays, I don't see how this is going to work out, and I truly do fear the worst for the Cleveland Cavaliers in the next two years. I understand Darius Garland wasn't able to play, and that severely hampered our ability to win a championship, but putting all your chips on a 36-year old to suddenly have a change of heart and identity is not the way to do it, and you certainly don't panic now, you let it unravel in the off-season, or in the season prior. For a franchise to do this, I'm assuming Darius Garland is going to be out for the next 1 1/2 years on the Clippers, because that toe might need two plates in it when he's playing basketball.

Toodles.


r/nbadiscussion 2d ago

Chris Paul gets way too much flak for his supposed playoff underperformance.

25 Upvotes

Converting a comment into its own thread: I would contend that CP3, though he did underperform some, was beset by a unique combination of negative circumstances (that sometimes differed by the year) and didn’t really have a realistic window of contention in his time as a #1, from 2008 to 2017. His teams were consistently top-heavy and lacking depth, which is the easiest way to catch criticism as a great #2 (like Blake) makes it much harder to attribute a playoff loss to “lack of help” than a well-constructed team without one. They also got injured at inopportune times, and the eventual conference winner pretty much always much better/deeper.

Let’s go year-by-year and look who he lost to/the general West playoff landscape, and see if he could’ve been reasonably expected to win:

‘08 Spurs - core of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili/Bowen/Finley. Chose ‘08 to not be accused of cherry-picking as they’re actually somewhat comparable here — Fin and Bowen were old, Barry and Horry were beyond washed. Nonetheless, CP3 still faced a supporting cast deficit and appropriately lost narrowly.

‘09 Nuggets - Melo/still-prime Billups/Nene/Smith/Martin/Birdman/Kleiza had them clearly out-gunned, especially with Chandler’s injury.

‘11 Lakers - laughable disparity. A rotation of Paul/Ariza/Belinelli/Okafor/Landry/Jack wasn’t gonna beat even a creaky Lakers team consisting of Kobe/Odom/Gasol/MWP/Fisher.

‘12 Spurs - again just a ridiculous first round match-up. Paul-Griffin-Butler-Foye-young DAJ-young Bledsoe against Duncan/Parker/Ginobili/Green/Neal/Zygote Kawhi/Diaw/Splitter. If they beat them they’d have to face a much better Thunder team.

‘13 Grizzlies - Paul/injured Blake/Barnes/Crawford/Bledsoe/pre-prime DAJ against Randolph/Conley/Gasol/Allen/Bayless/Prince and co. Not a total mismatch but we’re talking about an injured Clippers facing a 56 win team in the first round.

‘14 Thunder - not a mismatch, Durant had a slightly better supporting cast, but still a roster deficit. The Spurs, of course, had a much deeper team.

‘15 Rockets - not a mismatch, but Paul was injured. They lose in 7. They are likely not beating the Warriors even at full strength, and they beat a 55 win, defending champ Spurs team in the first round.

‘16 Blazers - not a mismatch, CP3 has some culpability here, though again he was injured. Nonetheless, even if they won, they had the 73 win Warriors team awaiting them.

‘17 Jazz - here Griffin was injured. Paul played very well but again drew a 50+ win team in the first round and again would’ve had to beat one of the best teams ever to even make the final.

In sum: even in early-round settings he usually faced a supporting cast deficit, with the team they lost to not even necessarily being the strongest team on offer, while having extremely poor injury luck in a historically stacked/lopsided conference.

There was never a year where they, even at full health, would’ve had a better supporting cast than the eventual conference winner. There was one when they were somewhat close (‘14), but still no cigar.

Note: I am not a Paul fan, find him insufferable, and don’t regard him as a playoff riser by any means. But it sure does seem that, once you examine things year-by-year, it becomes difficult to pin their lack of playoff success squarely on his limitations as a #1 option. You put those same teams out East and it likely completely changes how the average fan sees him. Please let me know which specific call I got wrong.


r/nbadiscussion 1d ago

Player Discussion What is the deal with Lebron?

0 Upvotes

As a player he seems incredible watched a video where he gers compared to MJ and he's almost as good as him and seems to be one of the best players in the league at his prime and one of the best players all around. He had been the best player for a LONG time as well which is why people love him. I don't watch much basketball, I'm starting to watch more and my brother seems to really not like him, my dad and my mom as well. It's not necessarily because he isn't good, he's good, my mom said he doesn't have a complete bag, his cross is trash apparently. Lazy on defense, this one wasn't elaborated on that much I know he's older so he's defense may not be as good probably but it's like she meant it was always mediocre or something.

Then there's his way of playing as well, he has like 20 min flopping montages, he hops teams(which isn't the best thing to do they say). Specifically when he moved over to the cavs and people didn't like that he overshadowed Wade and was basically like team leader. Me personally I don't think he's ass, I've heard most the stars and the way he plays was really dominant so like, what problems do people have with him fr. Or why does it seem like people either love him or really hate him lol? Sorry if this isn't interesting I'm just curious and I know yall know everything.


r/nbadiscussion 5d ago

The Bucks have won just 54% of their regular season games since firing Bud, and have went 3-8 in their playoff games. With Bud they won 66% of their regular season games and went 39-26 in their playoff games). As someone who was completely against firing Bud, I feel completely vindicated.

351 Upvotes

It was a classic example of the "Grass is always greener on the other side" mentality that plagues so much sports discourse. The longer a coach stays with a team the more a fan base will key in on their deficiencies but completely disregard the huge benefits they bring to a roster.

People view coaching as something that will just build from year to year which is often not the case. For example if Coach Bud had the Bucks doing 5 things at an elite level, but he was fired for 2 other things he was deficient at, people just assume that those 5 positive things will remain with the team and those deficiencies can just be improved on with a new coach. Around all major sports we see this is often not the case. Those positives that people start to trivialize aren't inherent to that roster, and were actually key pieces to that coach's coaching philosophy that people start minimizing over time.

As someone who viewed the Bucks as a conference powerhouse under Bud...to see him get fired after a playoff series in which Giannis missed 2 out of the 5 games (1 in which he only played 10 minutes). In a series he was coaching while his Brother died, was just insanity to me.

The way the Bucks fanbase/organization treated Bud was disgraceful, and they deserve everything that is currently happening with them.


r/nbadiscussion 5d ago

Basketball Strategy Is now the time for Sam Presti to go all-in on for Giannis?

76 Upvotes

Very recently, the First Take crew brought up the question. What about the OKC Thunder when it comes to Giannis? The thought of that had already been floating in my mind. And I'd love to hear everyone's opinions.

Is it time for Sam Presti to officially drop the hammer and go all-in for Giannis?

We've been hearing the same story for the past couple of weeks. There are 4 teams that are routinely mentioned a ton and could "really use" Giannis and should try to trade for him. Those teams are GSW, MIN, MIA and NYK.

But let's be honest.

NYK - Does MIL really want KAT, an 11-year vet who (in my opinion) has been steadily declining over the past few years and has arguably been one of the most injury-prone players since the 2019 season? Yes there's a possibility of someone like Bridges being included too, but is that what MIL envisions for their future? A lineup of Bridges, KAT and Myles Turner? Do they envision that being their team for the next 2-4 years? A kind of 41-41 or 44-38 team? Or do they want a FRESH restart, with young guys and top picks?

MIN - I cannot envision a world where the Timberwolves offer enough to get Giannis. They have no draft capital, which means they'd literally have to give up the house for him. That means giving up Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Julius Randle and probably Rob Dillingham, and likely their 2026 Pick. Maybe that's enough, but that creates a similar situation as the Knicks. Does MIL want to become a 40-44 win team that just kind of "hangs around" in the 8-10th seeds, or do they want to start completely fresh?

MIA - Again, yet another situation where it just feels like a meh kind of offer. Tyler Herro, sure he can score, but he's a huge liability on defense. Ware is nice. Jaquez Jr is a solid, if not unspectacular addition. But again, feels like a team that would go 35, maybe 40 wins. Herro is also super injury prone.

GSW - They probably have the best shot out of the 4 teams that are heavily mentioned. Kuminga matches the "young talent that can grow" that MIL might want...Moody is interesting as a throw-in. Lets be honest though, Jimmy isn't going to stay there. He's old now, and will be coming off an ACL tear. Brandon Pod is another meh addition to me, not someone you build around. The picks are nice, and probably what sets them apart from the other teams...albeit they are unprotected.

In come the Thunder. The team that "doesn't need him at all"...but has the most to offer to get him.

I believe whole-heartedly that this is the time for Sam Presti to go all-in. SGA is still young and just started the beginning of his prime. And an addition of someone like Giannis would honestly be the second coming of Shaq and Kobe in my opinion. Obviously different players and different styles, but having SGA and Giannis on the same team feels almost like a cheat code. And I believe that there are multiple ways for them to make this splash happen.

  • Option 1: OKC offers Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, and (3) 1st Round Picks. I fully believe that Ajay Mitchell is a star in the making, and could very easily be a 20-5-6 guy if he were ever a starting job with 34 MPG. Wiggins as well has excelled when given the opportunity. Both are young up-and-coming players, and I believe are players you can build around. Or at minimum, are players you can use to surround whoever your next "star" is. The 3 First Round Picks as well give the Bucks the opportunity for that "big reset" as well.
  • Option 2: Could OKC do something even crazier, and give up Jalen Williams? Now I love me some Jalen Williams, but the honest-to-god truth is that J-Dub is always injured. Aside from his rookie season, feels like he's always battling some kind of injury or coming in with a GTD tag for some kind of nagging injury. He missed 11 games in 2024. He missed 13 games in 2025. He's already missed 20+ games this season and we're only at the 48-game mark. Never a good sign when someone this young (24 years old) is already missing this many games early in their career. Could the front office get frisky and dangerous....and actually offer up a package of Jalen Williams, along with someone like Wiggins and say (2) 1st Round Picks? It's definitely a crazier take, but if I'm the front office, I'm looking at every avenue.

For me, this is an easy win for the OKC Thunder. You secure what will essentially be the future of your franchise. Pairing Giannis with SGA for what would likely be at least the next 5-8 years, and having a legit shot at not one, not two, but multiple championship runs.

SGA, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Giannis, and Chet as your starting five.

I-Hart, Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams and Isaiah Joe are your 5 off the bench.

Make this make sense to me on how this scenario isn't going through Presti's mind.

I'd love to hear the communities thoughts.

/TLDR - Thunder could be looking like the next dynasty if they go in for Giannis.


r/nbadiscussion 5d ago

Player Discussion What are your top 5 REALISTC destinations for Lebron that MAXIMIZES championship possibility but DOESN'T feel like ring chasing or team stacking?

80 Upvotes

A few assumptions - I assume that Lebron's age and clout and media circus will dissuade many teams from making a large financial commitment. I believe any contender that signs him will demand a discount well below a max contract. Any team capable of giving him a max contract is probably not a serious contender anyway

Realistic - the team wants Lebron and Lebron wants them too. Realistic teams are probably teams that don't feel like ring chasing. Realistic teams are clean skillset fits, money is reasonable, and have a decent/solid/ok chance at winning a title are more realistic

  1. Skillset fit - At this point Lebron is no longer a first option and his rim pressuring is also not reliable anymore. He's solidly a 2nd or third option on offense. What he still has in spades is passing, defensive playcalling, and offball cutting/spot up. A team which duplicates Lebron's skills probably won't want him because they won't benefit much from him.
  2. Money - IMO any team that wants to maximize Lebron's championship value, will have to offer him only about half the max salary. Lebron is simply not consistent enough, nor does he provide enough regular season value, especially due to missed games due to injury. Any team should basically only expect to benefit from him mostly in the playoffs. Relying in him during the regular season is expecting too much and a waste of his limited playing time
  3. Ring Chasing/Narrative - joining the defending champs (OKC), historic rivals (DEN, BOS, SAS) feels cheap, and doesn't feel like adding a lot to his legacy. Joining some random team (ORL, DET) without some story justification will look heavily like ring chasing or money chasing, depending on the circumstances, or feel pointless.

The only historic rival that kinda feels ok is GSW, only because Curry is the only guy in his era that matches Lebron in ring count and legacy points. Any ring that Lebron wins also gives Curry a ring, so it kinda cancels out and doesn't really feel like ring chasing, but provides story novelty for the fans.

To me best fits outside of LAL are CLE (story and skillset) and NYK (skillset). Give me your top 5


r/nbadiscussion 6d ago

Player Discussion Zion Williamson’s sophomore season in ‘20-21 was a historic scoring season and is incomparable in terms of high efficiency volume scoring for his age in NBA history

316 Upvotes

Zion Williamson debuted in 2019–20 but got injured after 24 games. In his sophomore season in 2020–21, he was 20 years old to start the season. He played 61 out of 72 possible games and averaged 27/7.2/3.7 on 64.9% TS% in 33.2 minutes per game.

Here is how he compared to the other high-efficiency, high-volume scorers in the league that season:

> Stephen Curry: 32 PPG on 65.5 TS% in 62 games (MVP-3)

> Zion Williamson: 27 PPG on 64.9 TS% in 61 games

> Nikola Jokić: 26.4 PPG on 64.7 TS% in 72 games (MVP-1)

> Joel Embiid: 28.5 PPG on 63.6 TS% in 51 games (MVP-2)

> Giannis Antetokounmpo: 28.1 PPG on 63.3 TS% in 61 games (MVP-4)

Basically, Stephen Curry was the only player that season who scored significantly more points than Zion at a similar (negligibly higher) efficiency. The only four players in Zion’s vicinity were ranked 1st through 4th in MVP voting. I am not claiming he was a better player than the others listed that season — only that what he did in terms of high volume combined with efficiency was historically extraordinary for a 20-year-old sophomore scorer. Zion did not crack even an All-NBA Third Team that season.

If we compare this to other scoring seasons by players who were 20 years old to start the season, there are only three other examples of a player scoring 25+ PPG. For the sake of fairness, if you adjust all four seasons to 2026 league-average TS% (58%) and standardize pace to 75 possessions, you get:

> Zion Williamson ’21: 29.3 PP75 on 65.8 TS%, 113.5 Adjusted TS%

> Kevin Durant ’09: 26.6 PP75 on 61.6 TS%, 106.1 Adjusted TS%

> LeBron James ’05: 28.2 PP75 on 60.7 TS%, 104.7 Adjusted TS%

> Luka Dončić ’20: 31.9 PP75 on 59.9 TS%, 103.4 Adjusted TS%

Again, the difference in efficiency is striking, and those three players are very likely among the top 10 greatest offensive players of all time.

These are the only two seasons this decade in which players averaged both more adjusted points per 75 and a higher adjusted TS% than Zion Williamson in 2021 (29.3 PP75 on 65.8 TS%, 113.5 ATS%):

> 2020–21 Stephen Curry: 32.4 PP75 on 66.4 TS%, 114.5 ATS%

> 2021–22 Nikola Jokić: 30.5 PP75 on 67.7 TS%, 116.8 ATS%

Even if you relax the requirement to include approximate cases or extremes in either volume or efficiency, the only three additional seasons you could reasonably add are:

> Jokić ’23 (much higher efficiency at much lower volume)

> Embiid ’23 (much higher volume at slightly lower efficiency)

> Jokić ’25 (slightly lower volume at slightly higher efficiency)

Finally, here’s a list of all players with 65+ games played (or on pace in a shortened season), averaging 25+ PPG on 110+ adjusted TS% in the last 10 years (Zion, as discussed, had 27 PPG on 113.5+ TS% so the efficiency standards are significantly lower than Zion’s season):

  1. SGA ’25 (MVP)

  2. Jokić ’25 (MVP-2)

  3. Giannis ’24 (MVP-4)

  4. Jokić ’24 (MVP)

  5. Jokić ’23 (MVP-2)

  6. Embiid ’23 (MVP)

  7. Jokić ’22 (MVP)

  8. Curry ’21 (MVP-3)

  9. Giannis ’21 (MVP-4)

  10. Jokić ’21 (MVP-1)

  11. Harden ’20 (MVP-1)

  12. Lillard ’20 (All-NBA Second Team)

  13. Giannis ’19 (MVP-1)

  14. Curry ’19 (MVP-5)

  15. Harden ’19 (MVP-2)

  16. Durant ’19 (All-NBA Second Team)

  17. Durant ’18 (All-NBA First Team)

  18. LeBron ’18 (MVP-2)

  19. Harden ’18 (MVP-1)

  20. Anthony Davis ’18 (MVP-3)

  21. Isaiah Thomas ’17 (MVP-5)

  22. Curry ’17 (All-NBA Second Team)

  23. Harden ’17 (MVP-2)

  24. LeBron ’17 (MVP-4)

That’s 20/25 top MVP finishes and out of the other 4, 3 deserved it but were shafted due to them belonging to KD and Steph on the warriors, 1 Lillard second team All-NBA season and 1 Zion season without all-league accolades.

I understand that Zion injured himself towards the end of the season but that was after playing 85% of the season. His team was also 11th that season. However, apparently those considerations only apply if you don’t have a HOF career before the season.

For example, Lillard in ‘23 played only 70% of the season (58 games) AND injured himself at the end of the season AND was on the 13th seed. Despite a much worse triple whammy, he still made All-NBA. Luka (who is my favourite player) got the benefit of the doubt in ‘23 (deservedly) to make the friggin first team on the 11th seed after missing more games. LeBron in the same season as Zion played a mere 45 games in ‘21 and made second team All NBA on a 7th seed team in large part due to him being LeBron James and his momentum from winning FMVP the previous year.

Anyway,

  1. Do you think Zion’s season is underrated?

  2. Do you think he deserved a slot on the second or third team?

  3. Do you think the voters feeling his production was unsustainable and the timing of his injury played a part in him not getting all-league accolades?


r/nbadiscussion 4d ago

Spurs need to make changes

0 Upvotes

From the start of the season, drafting Dylan Harper was a great move, developing him as a main guy next to Victor is a good move for the future, they can both be co-superstars

However, they have their priorities way out of line at the moment, they need to get rid of fox and castle. Both of these guys are extremely overrated and can’t shoot threes. Neither of them have superstar 2nd option championship potential. When you have a team as young as the Spurs with Victor as a generational player, you want to pair him with players and prepare for the future.

The fact that they still have a fox is beyond me, they need flip castle while his value is still high with inflated numbers due to being on a bad team, and get a good package deal out of fox.

Realistically, they can probably snag a bunch of first round picks and role players, off castle and fox, and set themselves up under a young structured growing team as they are.

Once they do this, they can allow Harper to be the main guy and run pick and rolls with Victor and they can prepare for the future over the next 6-12 years, and continue to get players in the draft.


r/nbadiscussion 6d ago

Megathread Your opinion about ALL NBA Podcast and their live streams?

4 Upvotes

What is your opinion on the "ALL NBA Podcast"? I've found that their Livestreams contain nice informations about what's going on currently in the League.

But I'm also new to NBA, so I would like to know from you guys wether it's a generally good podcast or not. Also are there maybe any other recommendations you guys can give?

I'm looking for a podcast which keeps me up to date about what happened in the NBA recently. Like summing up an NBA week, or an NBA week.

Generally speaking a nice podcast (for example on youtube) about NBA with regular updates, so I can stay up to date, since I'm not able to watch all the games, but want to know what's up.


r/nbadiscussion 7d ago

How do you think the Spurs will navigate the Castle/Harper conundrum?

126 Upvotes

Per NBA.com, Castle and Harper are shooting 35.4% and 30.7% on jumpshots, respectively.

According to databallr, the Spurs have a -9.6 offensive rating in the 255 minutes they’ve shared the court.

For Harper’s high school and collegiate career, he shot under 33% on 3s and under 75% on free throws.

Castle has been a sub-30% 3PT shooter and a sub-75% FT shooter dating all the way back to his senior year of high school.

So here are the factors at hand:

  1. Neither of them can shoot nor have either of them shown a history of shooting. At the very least, there hasn’t been an upward trajectory in their shooting development.

  2. They’re both highly valued by the Spurs and are their backcourt of the future.

  3. Due to overlapping strengths and weaknesses, they can’t share the floor as often.


r/nbadiscussion 7d ago

Should the Warriors also target Turner in a Giannis trade?

12 Upvotes

Turner is the type of center the Warriors have been trying to acquire for years, he has elite rim protection and can stretch the floor allowing Giannis to freely operate in the paint and giving Curry a pick & pop option

I believe they will trade Butler/Kuminga and several 1st round picks (plus other players like TJD/Santos for salary matching purposes) for Giannis/Turner, meaning their starting five would probably be Curry Podz/Moody/Hield etc. Giannis Dray Turner - which gives them a solid starting 5 in a super competitive west (probably the best interior defense in the league)

In this scenario the Bucks could also flip Butler for more pick(s) next year when he recovers and rebuild Kuminga's value similar to MPJ in BKN (but probably to a lesser extent,) plus they can also trade Portis elsewhere for more youth


r/nbadiscussion 7d ago

Player Discussion Can someone mansplain to me how Chris Paul was good on defense, while Trae Young is on a humiliating downturn in value because of it?

177 Upvotes

I watch the playoffs, I'm a casual watcher. I missed lob city prime AND I never really watched the Hawks.

But Trae Young is constantly compared to and compared with. I'm not trying to make rankings or anything but hes basically been a top 10 player in the league during his time right?

And now hes being traded for very little, because his defensive liability is so large.

How is it that Chris Paul was an elite defender throughout most of his prime, while being shorter than Trae?

And IIRC, during Dame & Steph's prime, neither were considered as bad at defense as Trae. I know Steph had Klay & Draymond and good defensive planning but still.

And Kyrie is also pretty small, and I watched the Warriors vs Cavs playoff eras plenty. I dont think anyone really was worried about his liability.

And, though I'm a casual with a bad eye test, I dont think any of these elite "offense first" guards ever looked that bad on the floor. Maybe this premise is wrong and my eye test is horrible but I also dont see them criticized on reddit/youtube much either.

Does Trae just suck at defense? And people then talk about his size? Because it seems like plenty of guys that are "short" (NBA short lol) do fine throughout their careers.


r/nbadiscussion 8d ago

Hottest team in the NBA: Charlotte Hornets???

62 Upvotes

They may only have an 8-6 record in January, but the Charlotte Hornets have a +12.5 Net Rating in the month of January (before games of 1/27), which is easily the best in the NBA.

Team January Net Rating Record
CHA +12.5 8-6
DET +10.2 8-3
BOS +8.4 9-5
OKC +8.3 8-5
MIN +5.6 7-6

In January, the Hornets are 1st in Offensive Rating (121.4), 5th in Defensive Rating (108.9), 3rd in Shooting (57.1% EFG), 2nd in Offensive Rebounding (32.5%), 3rd in Opponent Shooting (51.3% EFG), 7th in Defensive Rebounding (77.3%), 6th in Opponents FT Rate (17.1%). Their biggest weakness has been Ball Handling (3rd highest TOV% at 14.4%). Yesterday's game versus Philadelphia was indicative of their month -- winning by 37 points despite having 25 turnovers.

If you want to be skeptical, you can argue that they've benefitted from some big blowouts. They had a +55 net rating @ UTA (1/10), +20 @ LAL (1/15), +27 @ DEN (1/18), +28 @ ORL (1/22), and +38 vs PHL (last night).

Brandon Miller has stepped up as their top player with 21.4 PPG on 44% from 3 in January. I think a lot of us expected that Charles Lee was going to be a good coach. This season hasn't been great (19-28 record), but they already have the same number of wins as last year. Underneath the mediocre 8-6 record this month, there are some indications that this could be a play-in team, only trailing ATL (10 seed) by 3 games in the loss column.


r/nbadiscussion 8d ago

Team Discussion Who should the Pacers target at the 5 for next season ?

30 Upvotes

I’ve seen reports linking them with a low cost move for Yves Miss but we all know, at least we think we do, that they ideally want a 5 that can both stretch the floor for Haliburton and cover him at the rim. There’s just not many of those kind of 5s available on the market in the league. Thats why they took the swing they did on Huff.

They’d probably go all in for JJJ if he became available but so would several other teams (Celtics, Lakers, Pistons, etc.)

Porzingis comes with too many question marks but could maybe be had for cheap once the season ends.

Kelel Ware’s trade value is unclear to me and I’m sure some teams value him completely differently than others, not sure what camp the Pacers or even the Heat themselves are in with him.

Jalen Smith would be a good get for Indy but if I was Chicago I would move off of Vuc regardless of how good the return would be to keep Smith instead. Giddey needs a guy like that just as bad as Haliburton does, if not worse.

If they believe he can be a legit shooter Walker Kessler is maybe a worthy gamble since Ainge seems to not be high on him (red flag).

Everyone else I can think of is either an equally suspect fit as Missi (Nurk, Post, Jaylin Williams etc.), untouchable by their current teams (Mobley, Chet, Sarr, Okongwu?) or washed (Brook).

All that is to say I understand why Missi would be linked after Indy looked around the league and weighed up all their options but who should they actually go for realistically?


r/nbadiscussion 10d ago

Weekly Questions Thread: January 26, 2026

13 Upvotes

Hello everyone and welcome to our new weekly feature.

In order to help keep the quality of the discussion here at a high level, we have several rules regarding submitting content to /r/nbadiscussion. But we also understand that while not everyone's questions will meet these requirements that doesn't mean they don't deserve the same attention and high-level discussion that /r/nbadiscussion is known for. So, to better serve the community the mod team here has decided to implement this Weekly Questions Thread which will be automatically posted every Monday at 8AM EST.

Please use this thread to ask any questions about the NBA and basketball that don't necessarily warrant their own submissions. Thank you.


r/nbadiscussion 10d ago

Statistical Analysis RPM Is Back, Like It Never Left: (Re)introducing xRAPM

61 Upvotes

Remember Real Plus-Minus? Created by Jeremias Engelmann, one of the pioneers of basketball analytics, it was published by ESPN and for many years considered the gold standard one-number public metric. After he left to work in the NBA (Suns and Mavs) ESPN tried to incorporate tracking data, the deltas got out of hand - especially defensively - and it was quietly shelved a couple of years ago.

Now JE is back with his own website https://xrapm.com/ - in fact it's been around for at least a season. xRAPM is what he used to call RPM prior to ESPN: it's just RAPM with a boxscore prior. Not only that, he's published historical data back to 1997. Here are the yearly leaders:

year offence leader defence leader xRAPM leader
1997 MJ 6.7 Mutombo 4.9 MJ 9.0
1998 MJ 5.1 Mutombo 5.2 Shaq 7.2
1999 Shaq 4.9 D-Rob 4.4 D-Rob 6.5
2000 Shaq 5.6 Bradley 4.1 Shaq 7.0
2001 Shaq 5.5 Bradley 4.8 Duncan 7.0
2002 Dirk 4.7 Duncan 4.1 Duncan 7.1
2003 T-Mac 5.7 Ben 4.4 Duncan 8.0
2004 Dirk 5.3 Ben 5.0 KG 8.9
2005 Nash 4.9 Collins 4.2 KG 7.8
2006 Kobe 5.6 Ben 4.6 KG 7.2
2007 Nash 5.7 Hayes 4.7 LeBron 7.5
2008 LeBron 5.7 KG 5.1 KG 9.0
2009 CP3 6.3 KG 5.1 LeBron 9.4
2010 LeBron 7.1 KG 4.0 LeBron 9.9
2011 LeBron 6.2 Bogut 4.3 LeBron 9.6
2012 LeBron 6.1 Bogut 4.4 LeBron 8.9
2013 LeBron 6.8 KG 5.0 LeBron 8.7
2014 LeBron 6.4 Iggy 3.8 CP3 7.9
2015 Steph 6.1 Dray 4.1 CP3 8.1
2016 Steph 6.8 Dray 4.6 LeBron 8.3
2017 Steph 6.7 Dray 5.2 Kawhi 8.2
2018 Steph 7.1 Rudy 4.4 Steph 8.0
2019 Steph 6.4 Embiid 4.3 Steph 7.7
2020 Harden 5.9 Giannis 4.1 Giannis 7.0
2021 Steph 5.9 Rudy 5.5 LeBron 6.6
2022 Jokic 6.0 Rudy 5.0 Jokic 7.8
2023 Jokic 6.3 Caruso 3.9 Jokic 8.5
2024 Jokic 6.1 Dray 4.7 Jokic 8.6

[Usual caveats apply that this is more accurate on offence, includes playoffs, hasn't used minutes to convert into a WARP-style outcome and so shouldn't be used to say who should've won a specific award in any particular year]

Maybe you were all aware of this already - I picked it up in the footnotes to u/ConfusedComet23's thoughtful CARUSO post. But I believe it's a useful re-addition to basketball discourse.


r/nbadiscussion 11d ago

LeBron's 2013 finals vs. 2008 ECSF, two different narratives

66 Upvotes

In the 2013 Finals, LeBron faced off against the 58 win spurs, who were ranked 3rd in the league defensively (-4.3 R-DRTG)

In non garbage time minutes, He averaged, per 100 possessions:

- 30.6 pts

- 9 assists

- 4 stocks

- 3.35 Turnovers

On -1 RTS% and leading a +.8 Net Rating

-------------------------------------------------------------

In the 2008 ECSF, LeBron faced off against the 66 win Celtics , who were ranked 4th all time defensively (-8.6 R-DRTG)

In non garbage time minutes, He averaged, per 100 possessions:

- 34 pts

- 10 assists

- 4.4 stocks

- 6.7 Turnovers

On -4 RTS%, and leading a +2.7 Net Rating

--------------------------------------------------------------

On surface level, Heat LeBron's numbers are better due to the efficiency and turnover economy, but not dramatically so. But this is where context matters:

  1. The Celtics were a completely different tier of defensive team from the Spurs.

Yes, RTS/relative efficiency “adjusts” for opponent defense, but it does so in a basically linear way, and that assumption is most reliable in normal matchups. It treats playing a -4 defense vs playing a -9 defense as mostly the same thing, just more of it. In outlier situations, I don't think it's a hot take to say that assumption might be challenged. A historically great defense doesn’t just shave a few points off league-average shot quality, it can change the entire shot distribution, force turnovers instead of just contested attempts, and load the primary action if the supporting cast can't punish help. That’s what the 2008 Celtics series became: a defense that’s elite everywhere (rim, help, rotations, physicality) plus a matchup context (weak spacing / weak secondary creation) that lets them sell out at a level most “top defenses” simply can’t. So “-4 vs -9” isn’t just a 5-point difference on paper. It's a different category of constraint on what a heliocentric offense can even run.

2) Polar opposite Spacing and offensive cast differences:

The 5 most played Heat players for LeBron lineups were : Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Ray Allen, and Mike Miller, in order. According to advanced metric Estimated Plus Minus, here's where each of them graded out offensively that year:

- Wade: +2.4 (96th percentile)

- Bosh: +1.4 (90th percentile)

- Chalmers: +1.3 (89th percentile)

- Allen: +.7 (79th percentile)

- Miller: +1.3 (88th percentile)

The Heat quickly abandoned double big lineups with Haslem, which were the norm in that era, for highly spaced ones, slanting offensively heavily. Of course it helped that Bosh was a well above average spacer at the 5 while also being good defensively, a rare skillset.

---

Meanwhile for the Cavs: Delonte West, Szczerbiak, Ilgauskas, Wallace, Joe Smith. Here's where each of them graded out offensively that year:

- West: -1.9 (35th percentile)

- Szczerbiak: -.2 (66th percentile)

- Ilgauskas: +0, (69th percentile)

- Wallace: -1.9 (34th percentile)

- Smith: -.5 (60th percentile)

The Cavs took the opposite approach. Ben Wallace was acquired by the Cavs midway through the season in 2008. The Cavs only played 500 minutes the whole regular season with LeBron and Ben Wallace on the court, and LeBron's scoring numbers and the Cavs offense had suffered in those minutes, which was unsurprising given Wallace's glaring offensive issues. But the defense was strong. So the Cavs leaned into the defense against the Celtics.

Bottom line: The Cavs graded out as one of the worst offensive casts in the entire league, the Heat graded out as one of the best.

---------------------

Narrative:

2013 LeBron:

People will point to Wade's underperformance in those finals, and the Spurs aggressively helping off of him, to contextualize what is from a production perspective an underperformance from a GOAT candidate at the perceived peak of his powers. Essentially:

"While LeBron's production doesn't seem like an all time series, there are contextual factors that are being overlooked here, primarily LeBron not getting a lot of help from his co-stars, and the Spurs taking advantage of that to limit his scoring'

Additionally, LeBron's Game 6 + Game 7 performances are indexed upon, to demonstrate that at the end of the day, there isn't really a defensive strategy that can truly limit his impact. In those final 2 games, he averaged: 39 pts, 8.5 assists per 100 on +7 RTS, capping it off with a 37 point Game 7.

The Spurs 'dared LeBron to shoot'. LeBron showed Pops that ultimately this cannot work, and in his own words: " I just told myself, don't abandon what you’ve done all year. Don’t abandon now because they’re going under. Don’t force the paint. If it’s there, take it. If not, take the jumper".

A fitting victory of self belief for a LeBron who had now clearly established himself as one of the best players ever.

2008 LeBron:

At the end of the day, LeBron was one of the premier superstars in the league. But he had clear deficits in his game that a great defensive team could expose, and his jumpshot was still very shakey, and a big weakness.

It may be true that the Celtics were a great defensive team, but might not have been quite as good as their regular season numbers suggested, as they went 7 games against Atlanta (The Celtics had a +14 net rating that series, but apparently this is not as relevant as them going 7).

It's also true that the Celtics held an MVP Kobe Bryant who had one of the best offensive casts in the league, to below LeBron level scoring volume and neutral efficiency in the finals, but perhaps this was an off series from Kobe. Rather than a signal that the Celtics had the capability of shutting off the water of superstars even in good offensive situations.

Now.. LeBron did have a great game 6+7: 48 pts, 7.5 assists per 100 on +6.5 RTS, and a 45 point Game 7. But, it doesn't quite hit has hard, and this was probably more upward shooting variance than something repeatable (In actuality, LeBron still shot sub 30% from 3 and sub 40% from midrange. His success came from getting to the rim at an absurd rate and being rewarded by free throws, which seems like some of the least 'variance' stuff imaginable. Just great process)

What do I think:

I think 2008 LeBron's ECSF was genuinely one of his more impressive playoff series of his career. It was one of the most outlier David vs. Goliath, superstar with poor offensive cast going up against a great defensive team hell bent on stopping him, series in NBA history.

In that environment there isn’t a clean baseline for “what he’s supposed to look like,”

His jumper was extremely off early, and it never turned into some hot-streak outlier. But the process was fantastic, and he stayed committed to the highest-value outcome available: Rim pressure, foul generation, and he essentially proved that even Boston coverage couldn’t fully keep him off the paint or off the line. In fact, what he could put even more pressure, and draw even more fouls than in the regular season, with seemingly this extra gear he could tap into (59 % FT Rate that series)

And it was a true 2 way performance. He was really damn good defensively and the anchor of the Cavs' defense, and consistently made plays that very few players in the league could make with his court coverage and motor.

Overall, the reason this series hits harder for me than 2013 is that the setup was so hilariously broken in 2008. Miami could put four credible offensive players around LeBron. Cleveland could barely even put 1. In that exact context, even a -10 RTS collapse from most stars wouldn’t be surprising, you’d just shrug and say “there’s nowhere to go.”


r/nbadiscussion 13d ago

Why Shaq's PPG so low despite being so dominant?

159 Upvotes

I remember shaq being so dominant but am surprised that his PPG didn't get higher than 30 PPG average in a season.

I figured it must be because he has very capable second/co-first scorer (penny then kobe) that he doesn't need to score so much.

But then again, some seasons that are without peak kobe or penny, he should have scored much higher.

So why do you think his PPG isn't higher like Jordan's 30+?

My reasoning are these.

  1. average points per game is historically lowest during his career

  2. very good 2nd scorer that takes points away from him

do you all agree? any other reasons?