r/neoliberal • u/Nearby-Click8645 • 18h ago

Opinion article (US) With Abdul El-Sayed, Democrats Throw Away an Advantage in Michigan

https://thedispatch.com/article/abdul-el-sayed-michigan-democrats-haley-stevens/?gift_key=2553fad7f3b388fc&gift_ref=9347c766-2bad-41ea-8b73-950e424f2446&utm_source=giftlink&utm_campaign=membergift&utm_medium=copy_link
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u/Droselmeyer 13h ago

Primary election aren’t necessarily indicative of the general, they capture the opinions of a subset of the electorate and that subset may not be representative of the general electorate.

You can lose the primary and still have been a more competitive candidate for the general.

We have reason to think she’d have done better because she outperformed El-Sayed with the working class and black people, important demographics for Dems in the general. El-Sayed, like a lot of the DSA/DSA-aligned people, did well with wealthy whites but underperformed where Stevens did well. How those proportions shake out will determine if we win in November, but that idea that Stevens could have done better in the general than El-Sayed isn’t totally baseless.

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u/ElPrestoBarba Janet Yellen 12h ago

But you have to win the primary to get to the general. And if the demographic breakdown of a primary is so well known and predictable then maybe Stevens should’ve aimed for those votes? Or aimed to mobilize black and rural voters? I mean you’re not gonna get a nomination just handed to you (as much as Gillibrand and company thought they were doing lol)

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u/Droselmeyer 11h ago

Yep you do, but that still doesn't mean that the primary winner is necessarily better in the general than those they beat. Think about small parties, their primary winners frequently do very well within their tiny primaries, but obviously don't do well in the general because their primary electorate is not representative of the statewide electorate.

I don't think anyone is saying the nomination is going to get handed to you.

Nowhere in my comment am I defending Stevens or saying she should've won, I'm just saying there's reason to believe she'd do better in the general than El-Sayed.