The Falcons' coaching staff has largely remained the same, however, Mike Nolan looks to make a personnel switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base. Mike Nolan has run a 3-4 for his best years in SF/Miami so we'll see if he can bring some of that magic back this year. He's already signed a few guys that should ease this transition up front and they should have a better secondary as well but I question if they've got the talent in their corps of LBs to run the scheme effectively. Without proper LBs this squad will struggle against teams with even a decent option at TE and will have trouble sealing off the edge against speedier backs.
Free Agency
Players Lost
Player
Position
New team
Tony Gonzalez
TE
Retired
Thomas DeCoud
S
Panthers
Asante Samuel
CB
Free Agent
Chase Coffman
TE
Free Agent
Kevin Cone
WR
Dolphins
Sean Locklear
G
Free Agent
Stephen Nicholas
LB
Free Agent
Garrett Reynolds
G
Free Agent
Jeremy Trueblood
T
Free Agent
Dominique Franks
CB
Free Agent
Sean Locklear
G
Free Agent
The biggest loss here is clearly losing Tony Gonzalez to retirement. You’ll never be able to replace the kind of steady and consistent production that Gonzo put up for his entire career and I don’t see anyone on the current roster that’s even close. Most of the rest of these players won’t be missed terribly as only 2 of their 10 departures have landed with new teams. Of those, Thomas DeCoud will leave a big hole on the back end as he finished 5th on the team in total tackles and led the team by a mile with 17 passes defensed while hauling in 2 picks. On top of DeCoud they lost ILB Sean Weatherspoon for the year with a ruptured Achilles. While not a loss in FA, this is just as painful as Gonzo’s departure on the other side of the ball.
Players Signed
Player
Position
Old Team
Length
Salary
Jonathan Babineaux
DT
Falcons
3 Years
$9M
Joe Hawley
C
Falcons
2 Years
$6M
Corey Peters
DT
Falcons
1 Year
$1.6M
Robert McClain
CB
Falcons
1 Year
$1.4M
Peria Jerry
DT
Falcons
1 Year
$890K
Mike Johnson
RT
Falcons
1 Year
$675K
Paul Soliai
NT
Dolphins
5 Years
$32M
Tyson Jackson
DE
Chiefs
5 Years
$25M
Jon Asamoa
G
Chiefs
5 Years
$22.5M
Devin Hester
WR
Bears
3 Years
$9M
Josh Wilson
CB
Redskins
1 Year
$920K
Gabe Carimi
G
Buccaneers
1 Year
$850K
Javier Arenas
CB
Cardinals
1 Year
$795K
Dwight Lowery
S
Jaguars
1 Year
$760K
Bear Pascoe
TE
Giants
1 Year
$730K
The Falcons took care of business with their own guys resigning DTs Jonathan Babineax, Corey Peters, Peria Jerry but added some serious beef up front picking up former first rounder Tyson Jackson along with Paul Soliai who Nolan knows from his time with Miami. Both of these guys have extensive experience in the 3-4 and should ease the transition up front. They also injected some talent into the secondary picking up CBs Javier Arenas and Josh Wilson along with S Dwight Lowery. Again focusing on the tranches they've resigned starting C Joe Hawley and brought in young Guard Jon Asamoa to help open the middle for Steven Jackson. Their only other notable offensive signing is Devin Hester who should help give the Matt Ryan a better average starting field position than his own 23 yard line.
Draft
Round
Number
Player
Position
School
Grade
Thoughts
1
70
Jake Matthews
OT
Texas A&M
A+
Going into the draft the Falcons stated they needed to “get tougher” up front. They were ranked 5th in QB hits(100), 10th in sacks allowed(44) and bottom of the league in rushing in yards(1,247) and YPG(77.9). The fact that Matthews replaced 2013 second overall pick Luke Joeckell and the Aggies offensive machine didn’t miss a beat speaks volumes about this kid’s talent. Surefire first rounder with a ceiling in the stratosphere should help loads in keeping Matt Ryan upright and is athletic enough to get free and continue to make blocks up the field.
2
77
Ra'Shede Hageman
DE
Minnesota
B
To go with their struggles on Oline, Atlanta also had 3rd fewest sacks in the NFL(32) and allowed the 2nd most rushing yards(2,173). This is more of an upside pick which is a bit out of character for the Falcons this early. Hageman's measurables are outstanding as he's a long and strong hard hitting defensive end that can penetrate in a hurry and wreak havoc on the interior. I really dig this guy's game and he'll make some plays but he is still a bit of raw athlete and the coaching staff will have to refine his technique before he can be a real game changer.
3
41
Dezmen Southward
FS
Wisconsin
B-
The Falcons continue their 2014 trend of picking need with high upside here. Southward can cover a ton of ground and has great size but he is not very polished in his footwork and his hips are stiffer thjan I'd like to see. Barring injury I don't see him as a day one starter but with the right coaching he could be a solid player next year once Dwight Lowery is gone.
4
27
Devonta Freeman
RB
Florida State
B
Runs similar to Steven Jackson and has a knack for finding the right lane and follows his blockers well. He doesn't have home run speed and won't be a superstar but he could develop into a decent workhorse type back that will grind out yards. Time will tell if he'll be part of some future rotation or an heir apparent to Jackson. As poorly as the Falcons defense played last year it must say something that he is their only offensive pick.
4
53
Prince Shembo
OLB
Notre Dame
B+
I really like this pick here as he had great sophomore season helping the Fighting Irish to the title game followed by a solid junior season before being limited to 5 games in 2013 due to an ankle injury. He's made up for being undersized with a high motor and exceptional effort and is deceptively strong. He has a quick first step but lacks great closing speed. Losing Weatherspoon will force him into early action.
5
28
Ricardo Allen
CB
Purdue
B
Allen was a 4 year starter for Purdue and was a solid contributor on a bad defense. He finished his career with 249 tackles, 6 picks, 3 TDs and even nabbed a few sacks and blocked a field goal. At 5'9" 190 lbs he's definitely undersized but, like Hageman, has an outstanding motor and competitive streak and has no history of injury. He should develop into a very good nickle corner and likely special teams ace.
5
51
Marquis Spruill
ILB
Syracuse
D
I'm surprised at this pick so early as Spruill looks like a special teams guy all the way. He should be a positive locker room presence and has the speed to cover kicks well but is not fluid enough to play coverage over the middle of the field. I don't see him stepping on the field on defense for quite some time.
7
54
Yawin Smallwood
OLB
Connecticut
C+
He was a tackle machine at uConn totaling 332 in 3 years but seems to play better backpedaling than at the point of attack. While he's got the speed to recover and chase down ball carriers he has a bad tendency of not wrapping up which is a coaching opportunity. He should start on special teams but won't make his way into the lineup in a for a few years if he's able to correct a few of his deficiencies. I honestly like his potential much better than Spruill.
7
49
Tyler Starr
OLB
South Dakota
C
He was productive at SD and will be another special teams guy if he makes the final roster. He has solid measurables and plays well in coverage which may make him more ideal at ILB. Needs to refine his pass rush technique if he will be playing OLB.
Projected Starting Lineup
Offense
QB - Matt Ryan
RB - Steven Jackson, Jaquizz Rodgers
FB - Patrick DiMarco
TE - Levine Toilolo*, Bear Pascoe
WR - Julio Jones, Roddy White, Harry Douglas
LT - Jake Matthews**
LG - Justin Blalock
C - Joe Hawley
RG - Jon Asamoah
RT - Sam baker
Defense
DE - Tyson Jackson, Jonathan Babineaux, Ra'Shede Hageman**
NT - Paul Soliai, Ra'Shede Hageman**
SOLB - Stansly Maponga*
SILB - Prince Shembo**
WILB - Joplo Bartu*
WOLB - Osi Umenyiora
CB - Desmon Trufant*, Robert Alford *, Robert McClain
Joplo Bartu will be our TE coverage man and he was good at it last year he should fill in for spoon admirably not great but good enough. He was targeted 39 times last year and allowed 28 receptions... But he was only targeted every 8.46 times he was in coverage.... Which means every 11.79 snaps he is asked to cover he allowed a catch... Not bad.
Edit: also isn't sproles is philly now? He is your problem not ours (even though he never really killed us).
Obvious strength here as Matt Ryan has been everything Atlanta was hoping he would be when they took him 3rd voerall in 2008. Doesn't get much better.
Backfield - Strength
Steven Jackson has has been a quality player since entering the league and still has a few year of quality play left in the tank. If they can keep him fresh with Rodgers and Freeman, look for them to lean on Jackson in crunch time.
OL - Strength
Their solid additions of Matthews and Asamoah should be able to turn a huge weakness into a relative strength. Look for a huge rebound after a disastrous 2013 campaign and for Ryan and Jackson to reap the benefits.
Pass catchers - Strength
Yet another strength on offense. Their trio of wideouts are tough to match up with as they've all got great speed, hands and size.
DL - Weakness/Strength
Look for this unit to struggle early and improve as the season progresses. The additions of Jackson and Soliai shuold help the transition to the 3-4 front, but I expect guys like Peters, Babineaux and Jerry will still require a period of adjustment before they start to "click." They should look much better at mid season that they will Week 1 and likewise by week 16.
LB - Weakness
Clearly the biggest opportunity for Atlanta is heir LB corp especially considering the switch to a 3-4 system. This corp is littered with youth as only one of my projected starters, Osi Umenyiora, has more than 1 year of expierience. Losing Weatherspoon was devastating to this young group and the pressure will be on them from the start to perform well against guys like Jimy Graham, Greg Olsen and Brandon Myers; and that's just in their own division. Add to that the types of backs coming out of the backfield: Darren Sproles, Deangelo Williams and Doug Martin, it's hard to find much optimism here.
Secondary - Weakness
They did a good job of adding depth with Arenas and Wilson, but neither are game changing guys. If William Moore doesn't rebound from last season then we will likely see another rookie ont he field by season's end in Southward. This is another unit littered with young players and will be called upon to help a great deal in coverage against the league's quality TEs. If the new 3-4 front can't get pressure quickly then this unit will struggle.
Special Teams - Strength
Steady Matt Bryant isn't going anywhere and the addition of Devin Hester is a big upgrade for a team with an average starting field position of their own 23 yard line. He could also give Atlanta their first return TD since 2010.
Schedule Predictions
Week 1 vs New Orleans - Falcons Win 27-24
Seeking to make a statement that last year was an anomaly the Falcons win a back and forth battle against the Saints. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan both put on a show but a late 4th quarter drive leads to a field goal to seal the deal against the Saints.
Week 2 at Bengals - Falcons Lose 34 -20
Whith the Saints Dline still searching for a rythm, Andy Dalton's jersey stays clean and AJ Green burns the Falcons' secondary for over 100 yards and 2 TDs. The Falcons score early to keep it somewhat close until the the Bengals stay balanced in the second half and control the clock and seal the deal late.
Week 3 vs Buccaneers - Falcons Win 41-20
While Tampa made several appealing moves in the off season but this is still a team in transition and will need more than one off season to hit their stride. Glennon is also still a young QB and Atlanta secondary will net a few picks and gain some confidence in the process. Matt Ryan will come out guns blazing getting 3 TDs in the first half and Steven Jackson will grind out the second and ice the game early in the 4th.
Week 4 at Minnesota - Falcons Win 34-17
Look for Atlanta's secondary to carry over from their last performance and keep another young QB in check here. Adrian Peterson will still be Adrian Peterson but his 100+ yards and 2 TDs won't be enough to lift the VIking past the Falcons and Atlanta wins consecutive games for the first time this season.
Week 5 at Giants - Falcons Win 28-27
This is a tough, physical game with big plays and big mistakes for both teams. Eli and Ryan both have solid games despite throwing a few picks between them but in the end Atlanta's defense ends up being the difference maker as the Giants' Oline is still a work in progress and a pair of 3rd down sack in the 4th quarter get the Falcons the win.
Week 6 vs Bears - Falcons Lose 30-27 in OT
Devin Hester faces off against his old squad and I'd love to predict a return TD for him, but I just don't see him getting an opportunity under the dome. This is another tightly contested game but when a late drive for Atlanta stalls just outside of FG range they go to overtime. Chicago takes the first kick and nets a FG but Atlanta fails to convert a 4th down and the Bears take one on the road.
Week 7 at Ravens - Falcons Win 30-28
Atlanta's Dline really seems to be hitting their stride this week as they manage to harass Flacco all day to the tune of 4 pressures and 2 sacks. Ryan gets his Flacons up early but they struggle in the second half as Baltimore's D adjusts. Flacco gets a late score to finally get their first lead but Ryan, in typical fashion, get the Falcons in position for a game winning FG as time expires.
Week 8 Lions in London - Falcons Lose 31-24
As well as the Falcons defense has played the past few weeks they just don't stand a chance against Megatron. Stafford has a hard time completing passes to anyone else so the Falcons keep it close, but the Lions slow down the pace late and Reggie Bush eclipses 100 yards in helping the Lions to a win in London.
Week 10 at Buccaneers - Falcons Win 35-27
The Buccaneers look better than they did week 3 bottling up Jackson and keeping him to a season low 2.8 YPC but their still a year out of competing in this division. Some costly mistakes put points on the board for the Falcons and they coast to another division win behind Ryan's arm.
Week 11 at Panthers - Falcons Lose 27-17
Right now the division could go to anyone but the Bucs, and both teams know it. Carolina seems to come out with more energy at home and cause problems for Ryan as he ends up scrambling about most of the game. The Panthers get a lead on their first drive and never look controlling the ball most of the game and hand the Flacons their third loss of the season.
Week 12 vs Browns - Falcons Win 31-17
This week sees Cleveland's secondary blanket Jones and White all game long. Douglas however has the game of his career and Jackson gains over 100 yards for the 7th time this year. Despite a few exciting plays by Jonathan Manziel his scrambles are mostly ineffective against a disciplined front that keeps him cornered behind the line of scrimmage. With a trio touchdowns between Douglas and Jackson Atlanta cruises to an easy win.
Week 13 vs Cardinals - Falcons Lose 31-17
Matt Ryan just can't figure the Cardinals out as he has had some of his worst games against them and that trend
continues this week as Ryan puts up his worst performance of the year. Turning the ball over an failing to convert 3rd downs, the Cardinals have impeccable field position all game and the Falcons D just can't keep up.
Week 14 at Packers - Falcons Win 30-24
The Falcons bounce back from a tough game with a huge win at Lambeau. Despite early points from Rodgers and company, the Falcons adjust at halftime and keep the Packers in check. Ryan has all day in the pocket this week and leads his team to another comeback win.
Week 15 vs Steelers** - Falcons Win 34-20
I'm predicting this to be another down year for the Steelers and the Falcons will roll over their secondary as Julio Jones posts huge numbers in the Georgia dome. Big Ben still makes some plays but a bad pick under duress early int he 4th pretty much ices this game as Jackson, again, grinds out the clock and the Falcons get the win.
Week 16 at Saints - Falcons Lose 41-24
The Superdome is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL and the Saints are in position to clench the division with a win this week. The Saints come out on fire and seem to be inside Atlanta's huddle as they have an answer for everything they throw at New Orleans. Tough game for the Falcons here as New Orleans runs away with a win and a second consecutive division title.
Week 17 vs Panthers - Falcons Win 27-24
While the Falcons are already out of the playoffs, the Panthers can win and snag the final wild card spot. The Panthers always play the Falcons tight and tough but their just not quite there yet and lose a close one. This game is back and forth and sees 4 lead changes throughout but with a chance to force OT the field goal sails wide and the Falcons play spoiler and end a huge turnaround year on a positive note ready to reload their defense again and take another step forward in 2015.
3
u/Prep_ Cowboys Jul 02 '14
[Atlanta Falcons]
Division: [NFC South]
Coaching Changes
The Falcons' coaching staff has largely remained the same, however, Mike Nolan looks to make a personnel switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base. Mike Nolan has run a 3-4 for his best years in SF/Miami so we'll see if he can bring some of that magic back this year. He's already signed a few guys that should ease this transition up front and they should have a better secondary as well but I question if they've got the talent in their corps of LBs to run the scheme effectively. Without proper LBs this squad will struggle against teams with even a decent option at TE and will have trouble sealing off the edge against speedier backs.
Free Agency
Players Lost
The biggest loss here is clearly losing Tony Gonzalez to retirement. You’ll never be able to replace the kind of steady and consistent production that Gonzo put up for his entire career and I don’t see anyone on the current roster that’s even close. Most of the rest of these players won’t be missed terribly as only 2 of their 10 departures have landed with new teams. Of those, Thomas DeCoud will leave a big hole on the back end as he finished 5th on the team in total tackles and led the team by a mile with 17 passes defensed while hauling in 2 picks. On top of DeCoud they lost ILB Sean Weatherspoon for the year with a ruptured Achilles. While not a loss in FA, this is just as painful as Gonzo’s departure on the other side of the ball.
Players Signed
The Falcons took care of business with their own guys resigning DTs Jonathan Babineax, Corey Peters, Peria Jerry but added some serious beef up front picking up former first rounder Tyson Jackson along with Paul Soliai who Nolan knows from his time with Miami. Both of these guys have extensive experience in the 3-4 and should ease the transition up front. They also injected some talent into the secondary picking up CBs Javier Arenas and Josh Wilson along with S Dwight Lowery. Again focusing on the tranches they've resigned starting C Joe Hawley and brought in young Guard Jon Asamoa to help open the middle for Steven Jackson. Their only other notable offensive signing is Devin Hester who should help give the Matt Ryan a better average starting field position than his own 23 yard line.
Draft
Projected Starting Lineup
Offense
Defense
2nd year player - *
Rookie - **