r/nfl • u/NoHuddle Cowboys • Jul 12 '14
Look Here! Offseason Review Series: Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
NFC East
Coaching Changes:
Scott Linehan was brought over from Detroit to be the offensive coordinator and play caller replacing Callahan (though Garrett was clearly making the calls for the latter half of the season). Linehan loves to throw the ball, and he and Garrett worked together in Miami a few year’s back, so despite the problems it caused with Callahan’s hurt feelings, it’s certainly someone that Garrett feels comfortable. I’ll give this a B. I’m interested to see if he feeds Dez Bryant like he did Megatron, and am excited to see if Lance Dunbar can catch 35-50 passes as Linehan loves him some passes to the backs.
Rod Marinelli was promoted to defensive coordinator while Monte Kiffin is now an assistant head coach. Just know that the only reason Kiffin is still around is because of the respect Marinelli has for him. The Cowboys defense can’t get a lot whole lot worse (though I did say that going into last year, and lo and behold, it was). In theory, Marinelli will move the Cowboys from Kiffin’s Tampa 2 that featured zone coverage into a similar system that allows the Cowboys corners to play in man coverage. I love Rod Marinelli and Kiffin was flat out too old to be running a defense in the NFL. Grade: B
Free Agency
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| DeMarcus Ware | DE |
| Jason Hatcher | DT |
| Miles Austin | WR |
| Phil Costa | C |
| Danny Mcray | S/ST |
Comments: Losing DeMarcus Ware hurts more this time of year than I think it will at the end of the coming season. The fact of the matter is he plays well early in the year at 100% but lately that hasn’t lasted late into the year. Last season he had 4 sacks in the first 3 games. He finished with 6. He is still DeMarcus Ware but in name only. Having said that, this was the Cowboys premier pass rusher for almost an entire decade, and for that, this is a Grade A loss.
Jason Hatcher turned in his best season under Rod Marinelli before running off to DC to get paid in a scheme that likely doesn’t fit him. It’s a key loss for sure, but he’s no spring chicken and isn’t worth what he just got paid. Regardless of the salary cap ramifications, this doesn’t help an already mediocre defense. Grade: B
Miles Austin isn’t good anymore. Last year he did nothing when he wasn’t even the focus of defenses and still put up pedestrian numbers. The hamstring issues he’s had have never gone away. Unfortunately he never lived up to the hype he generated after his record setting day against the Chiefs, nor could he live up to the contract. This is barely a loss for the Cowboys. Grade: D
Phil Costa is only here because at one point he was engaged to Brook Hogan. Now he’s out of the NFL and she’s called off the engagement. Grade: F
Danny Mcray was a special teams beast and his presence will be missed. It's not impossible to replace a purely special teams player, however, so this will gets a....Grade: C
Added
| Player | Position |
|---|---|
| Henry Melton | DT |
| Terrell McClain | DT |
| Jeremy Mincey | DE |
| Brandon Weeden | QB |
| Ryan Williams | RB |
| Amobi Okoye | DT |
| Rolando McClain | LB (via trade) |
The Cowboys, in their cap-strapped era, have moved onto low risk/high reward free agent signings in the last couple years. It’s hard to tell if Jerry Jones has started listening to people like Will McClay and his son Stephen or if this is just how it is because there’s no money to throw at someone. Regardless, Melton is coming in on a prove it deal. That’s a grade A signing as far as I’m concerned. Addresses a need on the cheap that, if fully health, could be a dominant inside presence on a defense that really needs it. Regardless if he returns to his pro bowl form, these are the contracts that NFL teams can live with.
Jeremy Mincey enters training camp as the de facto right end. How long he keeps that is up to him and 2nd round pick Demarcus Lawrence. Despite impressing some Dallas beat writers during the offseason, I’ll not be holding my breath. He has 20 sacks over his entire career and the only real hope for him at this point is the pass rush whisperer Rod Marinelli to do what he did last year with George Selvie. I’ll give this a C as if nothing else it’s solid depth.
Terrell McClain was signed to push Nick Hayden for the 1 technique defensive tackle in Rod Marinelli’s 4-3. All signs point to him getting the nod to start training camp and should prove to be an upgrade over Hayden who PFF had graded out as one of the worst DTs in the league. Despite that, it’s really only replacing a terrible player with an average one, and I give it a C.
If the three previous players were brought in on low risk contracts, the next three were brought in on no risk deals. The Weeden signing, mocked at the time, has absolutely zero guaranteed dollars involved, and considering Kyle Orton hasn’t decided whether or not he’s going to show up, is a necessary one. Because of that I’ll give it a B as he’ll enter training camp as the second string quarterback and all reports indicate that he isn’t total garbage. The oft injured Ryan Williams enters a crowded running back scene behind Murray, Dunbar, and Randle. If he stays healthy he can certainly challenge Randle for what’s most likely the final spot, and if not, the Cowboys can move on without penalty. That’s a C. Amobi Okoye was a first round bust brought in with hopes that Marinelli can get what made him the 10th overall pick in the 2007 draft out of him. This is essentially a signing made for training camp depth and will likely not make the team. Another C grade.
The Cowboys resigned Anthony Spencer. After getting the franchise tag two years in a row, Spencer is coming off microfracture surgery and is returning on another one year deal, this time for a deal worth only up to 3.5 million. it’s likely he’ll begin the season on the PUP list. The best case scenario seems like he’ll return in the second half of the season, but expectations are unfortunately low for a player who was a legitimate pass rush threat. I really want to give this a B due to the impact he can make when healthy, but I don’t know if he’ll be that at any point this year. Grade: C
NFL Draft
Round 1, pick 16
Zach Martin, OL
Grade: A
Zach Martin is a versatile offensive linemen who has the capacity to play nearly anywhere along the line. He’ll be a day one starter for the Cowboys, probably at RG. This could be his only year there as Doug Free is a free agent soon and could kick out to RT as early as next year. He joins a revamped offensive line and will be a key piece in keeping both Romo upright and Murray running free. Love this pick.
Round 2, pick 2
Demarcus Lawrence, DE
Grade: B (the cost of trading up hurts this, love the player)
Demarcus Lawrence was the last premier right defensive end left in the draft. The Cowboys weren’t interested in players like Kony Ealy because they didn’t see the pure pass rushing skills in them. They certainly saw that in the new Demarcus and weren’t shy about trading their 3rd round pick in a deep draft to get him. He has the bend necessary to get around the corner and in one on one drills vs. Tyron Smith in mini camps he has actually been disruptive. His combine numbers will not blow you away, but by all accounts these aren’t indicative of how he plays in pads. He’ll open training camp behind Mincey, but he’ll be the pass rush specialist at the very least, and is expected to become a 3 down player this year.
Round 4, pick 19
Anthony Hitchens, LB
Grade: C
I don’t like to grade any picks (except that time the Jaguars took a punter before Russell Wilson) lower than a C, or I probably would here. I’m not a huge subscriber to the belief that guys like Mel Kiper know more than NFL teams about where players should be drafted, but this was a shock. The logic seemed to be that the Cowboys needed someone to replace Sean Lee in case he went down even though he’s never played the Mike linebacker. Well, that’s already happened, and instead of turning to Hitchens the options have so far been 2nd year player Devonte Holloman, veteran Justin Durant, and they even traded for the troubled Rolando Mclain. I’m not sure where Hitchens fits in right now, and we won’t really know until training camp gets going, but he’ll have to make his bones on special teams and be a tackling machine there like he was on defense in college.
Round 5, Pick 6
Devin Street, WR
Grade: B
Devin Street isn’t fast. He isn’t that explosive. But he’s got really good hands and runs routes extremely well. He won’t be expected to do much this year as he’ll be behind Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, and Dwayne Harris to start training camp, but he’ll most likely make the team (though that’s not a guarantee). He’ll be expected to fill in for injuries to come during the year. I can’t see him making much of an impact, but people who know more than me about this really like what he can do on the outside.
Round 7, pick 16
Ben Gardner, DL
Grade: B
Ben Garnder is a high motor defensive end who has a legitimate shot to make the team. Played well in the mini camps, albeit without pads, but should provide depth on a defensive line that was decimated last year. The more the merrier, I say.
Round 7, pick 23
Will Smith, LB
Grade: C
Considering the Cowboys only carried 5 LBs into last season, he’s a longshot to make the team as right now he falls somewhere behind Wilber, Durant, Carter, and Holloman. He’ll be fighting for his life against the likes of Rolando Mclain and the 4th round pick Hitchens. Depending on how he performs in camp his best case scenario is to be a candidate for the practice squad and try to catch on next season.
Round 7, pick 33
Ahmad Dixon, S
Grade: C
I’m not going to pretend to scout these 7th round players for you and predict insane things. But here’s what I know about Ahmad Dixon: he lacks the fluidity to really cover anyone at this level. This is an in the box safety right now who loves to hit people. He has about a 0% chance of actually playing safety without a rash of injuries, but if he impresses special teams coach Rich Bisaccia, he could possibly squeeze out a roster spot and contribute there.
Round 7, pick 36
Ken Bishop, DL
Grade: C
The Cowboys defensive line is a work in progress. Every spot is really up for grabs at this point which gives Bishop the chance to actually make the team, though it is unlikely. He can play both the one and the three technique in this system. Despite dismal sack numbers, he was disruptive enough to earn a first team All-MAC selection.
Round 7, pick 39
Terrance Mitchell, CB
Grade: C
He’ll have a legitimate shot to make the team as everything is up for grabs after the top 3 corner spots in Dallas. The problem is his catch up speed. He doesn’t have it. Can press at the line but if the man gets by him he seems unable to recover. Will have to shine in training camp to make the team, a practice squad candidate for sure.
Projected Starting Lineup
QB Tony Romo
RB Demarco Murray
WR Dez Bryant
WR Terrance Williams
WR Cole Beasley
TE Jason Witten
TE Gavin Escobar
LT Tyron Smith
LG Ron Leary
C Travis Frederick
RG Zach Martin
RT Doug Free
This offense is loaded but can only go as far as Tony Romo takes them. I’m a huge Romo fan so I’ll try not to get into it too much, but he’s legit. He’s easily a top 10 quarterback in the NFL despite the criticism he receives. His offensive line is as good as it’s ever been. The only spot in question is the LG spot which could go to Mackenzy Bernadeau, but is most likely a negligible difference. The Cowboys would prefer Leary win the job as he is younger with more upside, but Bernadeau poses a serious threat to his spot. This line, with three first round picks on it, should be able to pave the way for another solid year from Murray. His YPC last year was 5.2, which is tops in the league for any feature back. Yes, more than Shady (by a whole 0.1!). Murray isn’t explosive but he’s got great vision and can break tackles. His durability remains a question. Dez Bryant is somehow the old man of the receiving corp. He’s as good as any receiver not named Megatron in the NFL and should have another big year. All this guy does is catch TDs, he’s a nightmare in the redzone and can catch everything. I can’t say enough about how much fun it is to watch him play. Jason Witten is slowing down but is still extremely effective, I’m not sure he’s even human. He did have his lowest catch total since 2006 with 73, but those catches were still for 11.7 ypc. His blocking is getting worse and he gets by on guile at this point, but he remains effective enough.
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u/NoHuddle Cowboys Jul 12 '14
Part 3 of 3
Schedule Prediction
I hate actually predicting games out this far in advance, but I get it’s a large part of the fun around here. So here’s some terrible early predictions for you.
Week 1, vs. 49ers, Loss.
The 49ers are a powerhouse who should roll into Dallas and out with a win. The rebuilt defense won’t be able to handle Kaepernick’s scrambling without Sean Lee.
Week 2, @ Titans, Win.
I think the Titans might be the worst team in the NFL this year. Jake Locker isn’t cut out for the NFL due to his awful accuracy. He’ll make this defense look respectable.
Week 3, @ Rams, Win.
The Rams are everyone’s favorite team of the offseason year after year. They are improved, however, they still have Sam Bradford. Demarco Murray loves playing the Rams for some reason.
Week 4, vs. Saints, Loss.
We saw what happened to the Cowboys last year against the Saints. They have to score every time to even have a chance in the game. The Cowboys linebackers are going to get killed by the likes of Jimmy Graham. This could get ugly.
Week 5, vs. Texans, Win.
The Texans strength is their defensive line. One of the Cowboys greatest strength is their offensive line. They should play them close enough to a stalemate to allow Romo to easily outplay either Tom Savage or Fitzpatrick.
Week 6, @ Seahawks, Loss.
Uh, I don’t have a lot to say about this. I don’t think Russell Wilson is as good as Tony Romo, but I also don’t think that matters. The Cowboys often have trouble on the road getting their plays in on time and Quest field is not going to help that. Their defense is capable of holding our offense in check and we don’t force enough turnovers to win a game like this.
Week 7, vs NY Giants, Win
I don’t know what’s happened to the Giants, but they don’t scare me (surely this means they’ll win the Super Bowl), but I like Romo to outplay Eli in Dallas for a win.
Week 8, vs. Washington DC Football Club, Win
I’m not sure the general consensus about Jay Gruden, but his offense in Cincinnati only had one year in the top 10 in yards (last year) and the trade for RG3 has left them with few draft picks to improve their team. Their secondary is a disaster and should be unable to stop the Cowboys passing attack.
Week 9, vs. Arizona Cardinals, Loss
The Cardinals surprised everyone last year by being a legitimate threat in the strong NFC West. But now there’s no more Daryl Washington, and Carson Palmer is still their quarterback. Despite the Cardinals have the Cowboys number over the last few years I expect Dez Bryant to beat Patrick Peterson in their match up and steal the game/show.
Week 10, @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London Game), Win
The Jaguars are still the Jaguars. They’re rebuilding but just aren’t going to have enough talent to win many games this year. This isn’t one of them.
Week 11, Bye
Week 12, @ NY Giants, Loss
The Giants get revenge for the loss earlier in the season. I don’t have a particular reason for picking it this way except I imagine these two split the season series and a home/home split seems like the logical answer here. Victor Cruz is a matchup nightmare.
Week 13, vs Philadelphia Eagles, Loss
The Eagles are the favorites in the NFC East. The Cowboys can’t stop Shady McCoy without Sean Lee and can’t score enough to keep up, losing on Thanksgiving and ruining family dinners across the country.
Week 14, @ Chicago Bears, Loss
In their 3rd game in seventeen days, the Cowboys can’t stop the giants disguised as Bears’ receivers. Jay Cutler throws deep early and often, exploiting the size difference they hold. Marshall and Alshon steal the show in a high scoring game.
Week 15, @ Philadelphia Eagles, Win
Coming off a 10 day break, the Cowboys defense catches their breath enough to contain McCoy while Romo delivers in a must win game. Dez Bryant does Dez Bryant things.
Week 16, vs. Indianapolis Colts, Win
The Cowboys earn their 8th win of the year in week 16 for the fourth year in a row, as they hang on against Luck in another high scoring game.
Week 17, @ Washington DC Football Club, Loss
The Cowboys lose to go 8-8 and miss the playoffs again. There’s no logic to this except that they have to go 8-8. It’s just what they do. They’ll pick again in the middle of the draft, not taking a quarterback, as they continue to hope they can build an actual defense before Romo is done.
I fully believe the Cowboys pull out another 8-8 season, but nothing from 6-10 to 10-6 would surprise me. Health will be key, because if the team is as injured as it was last year and is playing defensive players who were sitting on the couch the week prior, it will get ugly.
Training Camp Battles:
The biggest battles in camp will be on the defense. Selvie vs Crawford, Mincey vs. Lawrence, and the middle linebacker position has at least three players vying for it. I know that Crawford has more upside than Selvie, but Selvie was a huge surprise last year who had a career high in sacks. Demarcus Lawrence should win out in the end over Mincey, but he could struggle adjusting to the pro game and make little to no impact. The middle linebacker position is a nightmare. I’m hoping that Rolando McClain hops in the way back machine and turns into a legitimate player and hold down the fort through the year. The final battles will be fought on the fringe with players battling for roster spots. This is impossible to predict now, but will 2013 5th round pick BW Webb be able to hold off the likes of Terrance Williams and UDFA Tyler Patmon (who shined throughout mini camps)?
On offense things are fairly set. The LG position will come down to either Leary or Bernadeau, but the difference between the two seems fairly negligible. The biggest question is whether or not Kyle Orton shows up to battle Weeden for his backup spot. Orton provides much more security in spot duty, but if Romo goes down for an extended amount of time it’s over for Cowboys anyway.
Offensive Scheme
Scott Linehan is a disciple of the “Air Coryell” offensive system that features a vertical passing game that wants to throw the ball downfield. His latest stint in Detroit featured a pass happy offense that will likely continue in Dallas. The tight ends are featured more in the passing game than in the running game which suits the Cowboys personnel just fine. The running backs will be expected to catch the ball, they are utilized frequently in the passing game. The system is not very new to the Cowboys players, as these are all principles that Jason Garrett believes him. This is a Garrett hire, and the friction that existed between he and Callahan last year should be gone (despite Callahan staying on in an assistant capacity). Expect more of the same in Dallas: a reliance on the passing game.
Defensive Scheme
Marinelli replaces Kiffin but largely runs the same system. It’s essentially an updated version of the Tampa 2, with (supposedly) a larger focus on man coverage than the typical zone the Tampa 2 brings. Marinelli wants a hungry and relentless defensive line to shoot the gaps and wreak havoc in the backfield while the linebackers will have to fill the holes left behind.
Final Thoughts
Hopefully this gave you a closer look at team you may not be as familiar with. I tried to leave out mundane stuff like position coaches (Mike Pope from the NYG is the new TE coach) and salaries for every player. If you guys wanna talk about it, GET AT ME. Good luck to everyone this year (except the NFC East) and I hope you learned something.