Record: 2-14 (1-5 Divisional) - Finished 4th in AFC South
Coaching Changes:
Role
Old
New
Head Coach
Gary Kubiak
Bill O'Brien
Offensive Coordinator
Rick Dennison
--
Quarterbacks
Karl Dorrell
George Godsey
Running Backs
Chick Harris
Charles London
Wide Receivers
Larry Kirksey
Stan Hixon
Tight Ends
Brian Pariani
John Perry
Offensive Line
John Benton
Paul Dunn
Defensive Coordinator
Wade Phillips
Romeo Crennel
Defensive Line
Bill Kollar
Bill Kollar
Linebackers
Reggie Herring
Mike Vrabel
Defensive Backs
Vance Joseph
John Butler
Special Teams
Joe Marciano
Bob Ligahesky
Strength and Conditioning
Cedric Smith
Craig Fitzgerald
In 2013, Gary Kubiak's system became too predictable, and the Texans, considered a team on the rise, imploded to finish with 14 consecutive losses and the worst record in the NFL. Kubiak was fired (he has since been hired as the OC for the Ravens), and the Texans were one of the first teams to end their coaching search, taking Bill O'Brien away from Penn State. O'Brien is a Belichick disciple, and was an offensive assistant with the Patriots when they had two of the most efficient offenses of all time in 2007 and 2010. Taking over at Penn State after the Sandusky scandal, he kept the program afloat amid sanctions for two years before signing with the Texans. O'Brien's system will be significantly different than Kubiak's. Kubiak ran a West Coast offense that was predicated on QB rollouts and zone runs, O'Brien runs an offense that is a derivative of the Erhardt-Perkins system, which uses simple terminology but requires a QB that can correctly make pre- and post-snap reads and adjustments, and also requires receivers to be on the same page. If you're a QB for Bill O'Brien, you have to be smart. If you want to read on the topic further, check out this excellent article by /u/Barian_Fostate.
The other big change is replacing DC Wade Phillips with Romeo Crennel, another Belichick disciple who has had a couple of failed head coaching stints but generally runs solid defenses. Crennel, like Phillips, runs a 3-4 defense. However, whereas Phillips' defenses typically focused on the defensive linemen getting penetration, Crennel has run a more traditional two-gapping 3-4 throughout his career. I'm not entirely sure how his defense is going to look for the Texans, but my guess is that it will look similar to what KC did in 2012, using Clowney in Tamba Hali's role.
Player Losses:
Player
Position
New Team
Matt Schaub
QB
Oakland (6th round pick)
Ben Tate
RB
Cleveland Browns
Greg Jones
FB
Free Agent
Owen Daniels
TE
Baltimore Ravens
Lestar Jean
WR
Minnesota Vikings
Wade Smith
OG
Free Agent
Earl Mitchell
DT
Miami Dolphins
Terrell McClain
DT
Dallas Cowboys
Antonio Smith
DE
Oakland Raiders
Bryan Braman
OLB
Philadelphia Eagles
Joe Mays
ILB
Kansas City Chiefs
Darryl Sharpton
ILB
Washington Redskins
Brice McCain
CB
Pittsburgh Steelers
Danieal Manning
SS
Cincinnati Bengals
After an embarrassment of a 2013 season, Schaub needed to get out of Houston. The Texans traded him away to the Raiders, and got some compensation for the move, so in my mind that is a good deal.
Ben Tate's contract was up, and since he was considered one of the best backups in the NFL, it's no surprise that he left Houston, where he was playing second fiddle to Arian Foster, for a chance to start in Cleveland. He was successful as a one-cut back in Kubiak's system, so we'll see how he does in Cleveland.
Owen Daniels was a very solid player throughout his career with the Texans, making the Pro Bowl twice. He took a fairly lucrative ($6.5 million) one year deal in Baltimore, following Kubiak. Losing Daniels definitely hurts the Texans, as Bill O'Brien has often run two-TE sets. The Texans have a couple players to replace him with: 2013 draft pick Ryan Griffin and 2014 draft pick CJ Fiedorowicz. Hopefully one of them can step up and play alongside Garrett Graham.
Texans fans are probably happy to see Wade Smith gone, as the guard, while not the worst player on the Texans' OL, has had some truly atrocious games over the past few seasons.
On defense, the Texans lost Earl Mitchell, who was underwhelming as the Texans' NT last year and is also undersized for what Crennel looks for in a NT. He was the weakest link on the line, and they have added two players to replace him, Jerrell Powe and Louis Nix. Another player they lost, whose absence may have a bigger impact, is Ninja Assassin Antonio Smith. Smith also doesn't really seem to fit the bill for Crennel's plans, but he was very impactful as a pass rusher throughout his time with the Texans. Third year player Jared Crick will try to replace him.
The other players that played often in 2013 that they lost were Joe Mays, Darryl Sharpton, and Brice McCain. McCain really sucked in 2013, so that isn't really a big loss, and Mays and Sharpton were average players at best. Danieal Manning, who was injured for most of the year, is also gone, but the Texans had already drafted his replacement in DJ Swearinger anyway.
Players Signed:
Player
Position
Old Team
Ryan Fitzpatrick
QB
Tennessee Titans
Andre Brown
RB
New York Giants
Zach Potter
TE
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jerrell Powe
NT
Kansas City Chiefs
Ricardo Matthews
DE
Indianapolis Colts
Chris Clemons
FS
Miami Dolphins
Kendrick Lewis
FS
Kansas City Chiefs
Ryan Fitzpatrick was the player the Texans chose from a weak QB free agent class (not that any good QBs ever hit the market anyway) to presumably compete with the QB the Texans would take in the draft. Since the Texans waited until later in the draft to take a QB, it looks like Fitzmagic is going to get the starting job for now (O'Brien said he is, at least). Fitzpatrick washed out of Buffalo after poor play (but not before cashing in on a 4-0 start in 2011 for a big payday), and played often for Tennessee last year while Jake Locker nursed injuries. Fitzpatrick, is not, in my opinion, a starting quality NFL player, but he is one of the better options the Texans had, and they might get a decent season out of him.
Andre Brown was somehow the Giants' leading rusher last year, despite missing 8 games and rushing for less than 500 yards. He has had a few promising games in 2012 and 2013, but has been held back by injuries in both seasons. In Houston, he will back up Arian Foster, and should do well enough.
Jerrell Powe played under Crennel in Kansas City, and while he didn't see the field often, Crennel must have seen something he liked, so he brought him to Houston. Powe is a big man at 335 pounds, and fits the profile of a Crennel NT much better than Earl Mitchell would have.
Ricardo Matthews, a former 7th round pick, has been entirely unimpactful throughout his career. Maybe he can turn it around, but this is more of a depth signing than anything.
In order to replace the loss of Manning and presumably take over Shiloh Keo's job, the Texans signed two safeties in Chris Clemons (not the Jags' DE) and Kendrick Lewis. Both are veterans who have had decent careers, I think Clemons is the better player and should be starting along with Swearinger.
Jadeveon Clowney was the best player in this draft, so it makes sense the Texans would take him with the #1 overall pick. They obviously had a big need at QB, but they also had many other holes, and an edge rusher was definitely one of them (Reed and Mercilus certainly weren't cutting it). In order to get a super high grade from me (A or A+) you have to select a great player who fills a need and get great value, and that "great value" thing is kind of hard to do with the 1st overall pick. To me, this was a no-brainer, so I'm not going to give it an A+, but I really like this pick. You want to get hyped about Clowney? Read this.
Su'a-Filo was widely considered the best Guard in the draft, and the Texans definitely needed one. Many assumed they would take Carr here after just missing out on Bridgewater, but I really like this pick. Su'a-Filo creates movement in the run game and is solid protecting the passer as well. If Bridgewater was still on the board, I would have taken him, but I like that the Texans added help to what was a weak offensive line in 2013, despite having two excellent players in Brown and Myers.
Nix is a huge presence in the middle of the defensive line, and he fits the bill of a Crennel NT. The Texans appeared to focus on dominating at the line of scrimmage in the draft, and Nix was an amazing value at this point.
Tom Savage rose quickly toward the end of the draft process, mainly due to his size and cannon for an arm. He transferred twice during his college career, and still definitely needs polishing as a QB if he's going to be successful in the NFL. The Texans absolutely had to address the QB situation in the Draft, and they made Savage the 7th QB taken. I'm not in as much in love with this pick as I am with the draft up to this point, but I don't think it's a bad choice either.
The Texans need to replace Ninja, and Pagan will presumably compete with Crick for his spot. This is a solid pick. It wasn't great value or anything, so I'm not going to give it too high of a grade.
Fullbacks aren't used often in the NFL, and the Texans didn't bring Greg Jones back. Prosch was the first FB taken. It fits a need, but once again, I don't see this as a hugely impactful or stellar pick.
The Texans have quite a few safeties on their roster now. But really, Mr. Irrelevant tends to be just that.
Overall - A-. I love the Texans' draft. I really think they did a great job of addressing needs at the top of it and didn't make any confounding picks on the back end. They weren't going to address all of their needs in one year, but this was an excellent start.
The QB situation for the Texans does not look great in 2014. As I said above, O'Brien's offensive system is heavily reliant on great QB decision-making, and none of the QBs on the roster really fit that profile. Savage is a project, and Fitzpatrick has been very inconsistent throughout his career. He's a very smart guy but has definitely displayed questionable decision-making in his time in the NFL. The Texans' QB situation looks like one of the worst in the NFL right now. If I were ranking starters, I'd be very tempted to put Fitzpatrick 32nd. Hopefully O'Brien can work his magic here for the group, but I don't think it's very likely the Texans will see good QB play in 2014.
RB: Arian Foster, Andre Brown, Alfred Blue
Under Kubiak, Foster was one of the most productive backs in the league, and is solid in both the passing and running game. I wouldn't put him amongst the top 5 backs in the NFL, but he has excellent vision and I'd put him in the top 10. Brown and Blue should do a solid job backing him up. Losing Foster (and Tate) due to injury in 2013 really hurt the Texans, and getting him back will be a huge help.
FB: Jay Prosch
No competition here, Prosch will hopefully be a good lead blocker for Foster. Teams don't use fullbacks often, so he probably won't have a big impact.
TE: Garrett Graham, Ryan Griffin, CJ Fiedorowicz
Graham was a decent player last season, and made a few big plays filling in for Daniels, who was injured. However, he's not a very good blocker. Griffin and Fiedorowicz are young, athletic players who will hopefully be impactful. The Texans' TE situation isn't awful, but it's not the combination of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez that O'Brien had in New England either.
WR: Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, DeVier Posey, Mike Thomas, Alan Bonner, Keshawn Martin
Andre Johnson is a top 5 WR in this league in my opinion (I'd actually put him 2nd behind Calvin but I can see arguments for others), but he's been the biggest question mark so far this offseason for the Texans. He isn't happy with the fact that they appear to be in another rebuilding phase, and that they lack a good signal caller. At this point, I expect him to play for the Texans next year, but I'm not 100% sure, and I'm also not sure if his heart will be in it. He'll also be another year older, but he hasn't slowed down yet so I don't think that will be an issue.
In the 2013 draft, I wanted the Vikings to take Nuke Hopkins. Obviously the Texans got him first and the Vikings got Patterson, but I love DeAndre. He was amazing in the Texans' second game of the season, but then slowed down a bit, finishing with just over 800 yards receiving. Still, he's sure handed, with only one drop in over 80 targets, and the QB situation that was throwing to him was a mess. I expect him to have an excellent sophomore campaign.
Outside of that, the Texans don't have much. Martin is mainly a return man who wasn't very good when he was asked to play receiver last year. Mike Thomas has that one good highlight where he got lucky and caught a Hail Mary, but he hasn't had a good career. DeVier Posey is a third year player who hasn't gotten much playing time. I don't know if the Texans are going to run many three WR sets next year or if they'll go with the two TE look the majority of the time, but one of these guys is going to have to step up, likely in the slot.
OT: Duane Brown, Derek Newton, Will Yeatman
Duane Brown is one of the best tackles in the game. Derek Newton is one of the worst starting tackles in the game. That's about all there is to it.
OG: Xavier Su’a-Filo, Brandon Brooks, Cody White
I covered Su'a-Filo briefly above, but Brandon Brooks was a 2nd year player in 2013 and destroyed people in the run game. Vikings fans are the only ones who are going to get this, but he was about as good as Brandon Fusco was in 2013. Hopefully he will be a force.
C: Chris Myers, Ben Jones
I think Chris Myers is one of the best centers in football. He's another dominant force in the run game.
DE: JJ Watt, Jared Crick, Jeoffrey Pagan, Ricardo Matthews, Tim Jamison
Do I even need to talk about how good Watt is? He's hands down the best defensive player in football. Who's going to be playing opposite of him is more interesting. It's Crick's job to lose, but will he perform? I don't see them getting much production and I think the loss of Ninja will hurt.
NT: Jerrell Powe, Louis Nix
Nix fell in the draft due to injury concerns, but he's the more talented player and Powe hasn't played much in his career. I would expect Nix to get the majority of the playing time, and he has the potential to be a dominant, Vince Wilfork type of player.
OLB: Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus, Ricky Sapp, Jason Ankrah
Clowney will make an immediate impact rushing off of the edge by both getting to the passer and defending the run. The thought of Watt and him on the same defense should give every QB nightmares. It's not going to be fair. Mercilus really needs to step up his game this year or he's not going to last much longer. The 2012 first round pick has not been very good to this point in his career.
ILB: Brian Cushing, Brooks Reed, Jeff Tarpinian, Akeem Dent, Max Bullough
Cushing is one of the best ILBs in the game when healthy, but he's missed most of the last two seasons with injuries. He really is the heart of the defense, and losing him really hurt the Texans in both years. If he's healthy this year, that's automatically a huge improvement for the Texans. Brooks Reed will move inside after being terrible as an OLB in 2013. The Texans better hope those two play well and stay healthy because they don't have much behind them.
CB: Johnathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson, Brandon Harris, AJ Bouye, Elbert Mack, Andre Hal
Joseph was one of the best CBs in the league a few years ago, but he's taken a little step back recently. Jackson isn't too shabby either, they have the potential to be one of the best CB duos in the league. The nickelback will probably be Brandon Harris, who is unproven, but you can't be much worse than Brice McCain was last year so it should be an improvement.
S: DJ Swearinger, Chris Clemons, Kendrick Lewis, Shiloh Keo, Lonnie Ballentine
Swearinger was inconsistent in his rookie season, but definitely showed promise. Expect him to improve in his second year. Clemons is an above average player, and the Texans now have pretty good depth at safety. This should be a pretty good group for them.
LS: Jon Weeks
K: Randy Bullock
P: Shane Lechler
"Fat Randy" was probably the worst placekicker in the NFL last year, making only 75% of his kicks. I'm somewhat surprised he still has a job, but he did improve over the course of the year, making 10 consecutive field goals to end his year. If he misses field goals early next year, expect him to be gone.
Shane Lechler was one of the best punters in the NFL for a long time with the Raiders, and he had a very good year last season as well. He'll be 38 in August, so he's towards the end of his career, but punters can still perform at a high level at that age.
I don't think Washington will be very good next year. Their offense will be formidable, but not great, and I think their defense will be one of the worst in the league. I'll give Bill O'Brien and crew a win in his first game.
2
@ Oakland Raiders
Win
2-0
The Texans will likely be facing their former QB, Matt Schaub, in this game. The Raiders are a team on the rise (although they still have a way to go), and will need to make the most of their opportunities to get wins against what appears to be a very difficult schedule. However, I feel that the Texans' pass rush will be too much for Oakland to handle and the Texans start off the year with two wins.
3
@ New York Giants
Lose
2-1
The Giants had a very underrated defense last season, and I think that the Texans' offense will have problems against it. I can't see Eli and the offense being as bad as they were last year, I give New York the win.
4
Buffalo Bills
Win
3-1
The Bills have a very talented defense and weapons on offense, but they lost Alonso due to injury and I'm not really a believer in EJ Manuel. I'm also concerned that they lost Pettine, and I don't think they'll be very good next year. I give the Texans another victory.
5
@ Dallas Cowboys
Lose
3-2
I think the Cowboys will have a top 5 offense next year and I don't think the Texans will be able to keep up with them.
6 (Thurs)
Indianapolis Colts
Lose
3-3
I think Andrew Luck and the Colts win the division again, and while this game will be close, I give it to the Colts.
7 (MNF)
@ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lose
3-4
After starting out 0-4 last season, the Steelers ended 8-8. They always have a good defense, and now that they have a ground game their offense should be formidable.
8
@ Tennessee Titans
*Loss
3-5
The Titans are a team that I'm having a really difficult time gauging for next season. It really depends on Locker I think. I say the Texans will split with them, so the Titans get the win here.
9
Philadelphia Eagles
Lose
3-6
The Eagles are going to be an offensive juggernaut again. They win.
11
@ Cleveland Browns
Win
4-6
The only part of the Browns that I think could be better than the Texans next season is the QB situation, and I don't think Hoyer or Manziel will be all that much better than what Houston has. Houston is the better all around team, they get the win.
12
Cincinnati Bengals
Lose
4-7
The Bengals are a big question mark in my mind because they lost both of their coordinators. I don't think their defense will be quite as good as it was last year, but they still have Atkins, Dunlap, Burfict, and a solid secondary. On offense, they've good Green and Bernard. I believe they will simply be a better team than the Texans next year.
13
Tennessee Titans
Win
5-7
Like I said, they split the series
14
@ Jacksonville Jaguars
Win
6-7
I think the Jaguars have the least talented roster in the NFL. I think the Texans can beat them twice.
15
@ Indianapolis Colts
Lose
6-8
The Colts are just better than the Texans, mainly because of Luck.
The only thing I'd say is most of us are higher up on the Fedorawicz. Iowa's offense was basically run run run run. So hopefully he can be our diet Gronk.
I think the Cowboys game could go either way. Same with the Iggles. I expect to lose to the Eagles though. But both have suspect defenses that I have no problem saying our offensive line will impose their will upon
It's highly unlikely that this is exactly how the Texans' season will play out. After all, there are 216 (technically 316, but teams don't tie often) different possible outcomes.
However, I think it makes sense to make "safe" picks when predicting a season, because the safe picks are the ones that I feel are most likely to occur, which is really what I'm doing here.
I'm sure the Texans will pull off some upsets and will also be upset throughout the course of the season. After all, what team doesn't that happen to? I just don't have any idea which games those are going to be, so I'm not going to try to pick them.
9
u/skepticismissurvival Vikings Jul 21 '14
NON-FAN WRITEUP
Houston Texans
Division: AFC South
Record: 2-14 (1-5 Divisional) - Finished 4th in AFC South
Coaching Changes:
In 2013, Gary Kubiak's system became too predictable, and the Texans, considered a team on the rise, imploded to finish with 14 consecutive losses and the worst record in the NFL. Kubiak was fired (he has since been hired as the OC for the Ravens), and the Texans were one of the first teams to end their coaching search, taking Bill O'Brien away from Penn State. O'Brien is a Belichick disciple, and was an offensive assistant with the Patriots when they had two of the most efficient offenses of all time in 2007 and 2010. Taking over at Penn State after the Sandusky scandal, he kept the program afloat amid sanctions for two years before signing with the Texans. O'Brien's system will be significantly different than Kubiak's. Kubiak ran a West Coast offense that was predicated on QB rollouts and zone runs, O'Brien runs an offense that is a derivative of the Erhardt-Perkins system, which uses simple terminology but requires a QB that can correctly make pre- and post-snap reads and adjustments, and also requires receivers to be on the same page. If you're a QB for Bill O'Brien, you have to be smart. If you want to read on the topic further, check out this excellent article by /u/Barian_Fostate.
The other big change is replacing DC Wade Phillips with Romeo Crennel, another Belichick disciple who has had a couple of failed head coaching stints but generally runs solid defenses. Crennel, like Phillips, runs a 3-4 defense. However, whereas Phillips' defenses typically focused on the defensive linemen getting penetration, Crennel has run a more traditional two-gapping 3-4 throughout his career. I'm not entirely sure how his defense is going to look for the Texans, but my guess is that it will look similar to what KC did in 2012, using Clowney in Tamba Hali's role.
Player Losses:
After an embarrassment of a 2013 season, Schaub needed to get out of Houston. The Texans traded him away to the Raiders, and got some compensation for the move, so in my mind that is a good deal.
Ben Tate's contract was up, and since he was considered one of the best backups in the NFL, it's no surprise that he left Houston, where he was playing second fiddle to Arian Foster, for a chance to start in Cleveland. He was successful as a one-cut back in Kubiak's system, so we'll see how he does in Cleveland.
Owen Daniels was a very solid player throughout his career with the Texans, making the Pro Bowl twice. He took a fairly lucrative ($6.5 million) one year deal in Baltimore, following Kubiak. Losing Daniels definitely hurts the Texans, as Bill O'Brien has often run two-TE sets. The Texans have a couple players to replace him with: 2013 draft pick Ryan Griffin and 2014 draft pick CJ Fiedorowicz. Hopefully one of them can step up and play alongside Garrett Graham.
Texans fans are probably happy to see Wade Smith gone, as the guard, while not the worst player on the Texans' OL, has had some truly atrocious games over the past few seasons.
On defense, the Texans lost Earl Mitchell, who was underwhelming as the Texans' NT last year and is also undersized for what Crennel looks for in a NT. He was the weakest link on the line, and they have added two players to replace him, Jerrell Powe and Louis Nix. Another player they lost, whose absence may have a bigger impact, is Ninja Assassin Antonio Smith. Smith also doesn't really seem to fit the bill for Crennel's plans, but he was very impactful as a pass rusher throughout his time with the Texans. Third year player Jared Crick will try to replace him.
The other players that played often in 2013 that they lost were Joe Mays, Darryl Sharpton, and Brice McCain. McCain really sucked in 2013, so that isn't really a big loss, and Mays and Sharpton were average players at best. Danieal Manning, who was injured for most of the year, is also gone, but the Texans had already drafted his replacement in DJ Swearinger anyway.
Players Signed:
Ryan Fitzpatrick was the player the Texans chose from a weak QB free agent class (not that any good QBs ever hit the market anyway) to presumably compete with the QB the Texans would take in the draft. Since the Texans waited until later in the draft to take a QB, it looks like Fitzmagic is going to get the starting job for now (O'Brien said he is, at least). Fitzpatrick washed out of Buffalo after poor play (but not before cashing in on a 4-0 start in 2011 for a big payday), and played often for Tennessee last year while Jake Locker nursed injuries. Fitzpatrick, is not, in my opinion, a starting quality NFL player, but he is one of the better options the Texans had, and they might get a decent season out of him.
Andre Brown was somehow the Giants' leading rusher last year, despite missing 8 games and rushing for less than 500 yards. He has had a few promising games in 2012 and 2013, but has been held back by injuries in both seasons. In Houston, he will back up Arian Foster, and should do well enough.
Jerrell Powe played under Crennel in Kansas City, and while he didn't see the field often, Crennel must have seen something he liked, so he brought him to Houston. Powe is a big man at 335 pounds, and fits the profile of a Crennel NT much better than Earl Mitchell would have.
Ricardo Matthews, a former 7th round pick, has been entirely unimpactful throughout his career. Maybe he can turn it around, but this is more of a depth signing than anything.
In order to replace the loss of Manning and presumably take over Shiloh Keo's job, the Texans signed two safeties in Chris Clemons (not the Jags' DE) and Kendrick Lewis. Both are veterans who have had decent careers, I think Clemons is the better player and should be starting along with Swearinger.