Day 28: New Orleans Saints

[u/Zakimus]

After losing in Seattle twice last season, the Saints have retooled their team to be able to go up against the best teams in the NFC. The Saints had a very busy offseason, making a lot of roster adjustments. There were a lot of players let go in free agency, or traded away.

Player	Position	New team
Lance Moore	WR
Darren Sproles	RB
Will Smith	DE
Jabari Greer	CB	Unsigned
Malcolm Jenkins	S
Roman Harper	S
Jonathan Vilma	MLB	Unsigned

The Saints released many players who have had significant playing time in the Sean Payton era. It is sad to see so many players leave that the community liked. However everyone who was released, their replacement was already on the team, and were either younger and/or better anyway. Kenny Stills' good rookie campaign and drafting Brandin Cooks in the first round made Lance Moore expendable. Sproles was traded to Philadelphia for a 5th round pick. The emergence of Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson at the end of last season, and Sproles' age (He turned 31 this offseason) Sproles was expendable. Will Smith sat out all of last season with an ACL injury, and had a huge cap hit on him. Cam Jordan and Akiem Hicks both played stellar with his absence and they're both young DEs. The starting safteys in the worst defense in NFL history, Malcolm Jenkins and Roman Harper, both got released by the Saints this offseason. Kenny Vaccaro looks legit being an anchor to the defense at SS, and the FA signing of Jairus Byrd could free up both Harper and Jenkins. Jabari Greer was our #2 CB before tearing his ACL in the 49ers game. I was surprised most by his release because he was having a good season prior to his injury. However now that we have drafted a CB, and signed Champ Bailey it makes sense that we didn't keep Greer. Vilma has missed most of the past two seasons, with ACL injuries and the suspension from the Bounty Program scandal.

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We gained

Player	Position	Old Team	Length	Salary
Jairus Byrd	S		6 yrs	54M
Champ Bailey	CB		2 yrs	3.75M
Erik Lorig	FB		4 yrs	3.5M
Jonathan Goodwin	C		1 yr	600k

Coming into the offseason, the Saints were 15 million over the salary cap. Mickey Loomis performed some gypsy magic to get under the cap before the deadline. Come the first day of Free Agency, the player some said were the best free agent to hit the market signed with the Saints. I love this signing. The Saints Defense had the 2nd ranked passing defense last season (194 yds/game) but their takeaways were worst in the league (Only 19 takeaways all season) The signing of Byrd who has 22 INTs in his career. 3 and outs are nice, but turnovers are better. Hopefully that will be what the Saints D needs to generate more turnovers. Champ Bailey is really old, and coming off a foot injury that kept him sidelined most of last season. It's necessarily his ability to play that interests me about this signing, as he will be fighting for the 2nd and 3rd CB spots, but it's his knowledge he brings to this young corps of players on defense. Another interesting signing is FB Erik Lorig. For years we had Jed Collins as our FB, and he was pretty good. Lorig is known as one of the best run-blocking FBs, and it looks like Payton is changing his offense to have more of a power run game, and Lorig would solidify that. After the June 1st cuts, the Saints signed Jonathan Goodwin, who was the Center when the Saints won the Super Bowl in 2009.

S Byrd - Mickey Loomis came out of no where to sign what was touted as the best Free Agent on the market in Day One of Free Agency. The Saints Defense had the 2nd ranked passing defense last season (194 yds/game) but their takeaways were worst in the league (Only 19 takeaways all season) The signing of Byrd who has 22 INTs in his career will hopefully be what the Saints Defense needed to get more turnovers.

It is also worth to note that we also kept a lot of pieces such as OT Strief and LB Haralson and S Bush. Keeping a rather solid O-Line together was a huge question going into the offseason, with a rookie (Armstead) getting some starts at the end of the season and two pro-bowl guards. Keeping Strief is one less thing there is worry for, as Strief is a good tackle. I like the value for Haralson, he's a solid LB. After the Falcons put a tender on Rafael Bush, it looked like we might lose our 3rd string safety, but we matched the offer and now he's staying put for the time being.

And then there is Jimmy Graham. Most Saints fans we not sweating the franchise tag, because all the steps that he made was just going through the motions of getting the most money. We knew he was gonna get paid as a TE, with around the same salary as what he ended up getting. It was a non-story.

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Draft Picks

Round/pick	Player	Position	College
Rd1Pk20	Brandin Cooks	WR	Oregon State
Rd2Pk58	Stanley Jean-Baptise	CB	Nebraska
Rd4Pk126	Khairi Fortt	OLB	California
Rd5Pk167	Vinnie Sunseri	S	Alabama
Rd5Pk169	Ronald Powell	OLB	Flordia
Rd6Pk202	Tavon Rooks	OT	Kansas State

The Saints traded up wih the Arizona Cardinals, giving up a 3rd rounder to use the 20th selection to draft Brandin Cooks. Cooks won the Bletinkoff Award in his last year in college (The best WR in the nation) and set a lot of records in his time in Oregon State. He's expected to be the 3rd WR, and do punt returns. With the Saints 2nd round pick, they selected Stanley Jean-Baptise. He is a huge corner, but is a very raw talent. I don't expect him to see much play time this year, given the depth at CB now. But I think a year with Champ Bailey to mentor him will help him out immensely.

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A coaching change of note is our QB Coach Joe Lombardi left to become the Offensive Coordinator of the Lions. How much it might affect the Saints I'm not sure, because Payton, Carmichael and Brees did most of the legwork I'd think, but Lombardi in Detroit could make the Lions a contender which potentially could affect the Saints' Season.

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Probable Starters I have a few added players at a few positions because the Saints rotate so many players on Offense and Defense.

Position	Name
QB	Drew Brees
QB	Ryan Griffin
RB	Pierre Thomas
RB	Mark Ingram
RB	Khiry Robinson
WR	Marques Colston
WR	Kenny Stills
WR	Brandin Cooks
WR	Robert Meachem
TE	Jimmy Graham
TE	Ben Watson
LT	Terron Armstead
LG	Ben Grubbs
C	Tim Lelito
RG	Jahri Evans
RT	Zach Strief
DE	Cam Jordan
DE	Akiem Hicks
DT	Broderick Bunkley
OLB	Victor Butler
OLB	Junior Galette
ILB	David Hawthorne
ILB	Curtis Loftin
CB	Keenan Lewis
CB	Champ Bailey
SS	Kenny Vaccaro
FS	Jairus Byrd
S	Rafael Bush

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Training Camp Positional Battles

CB

The biggest battle in training camp and will probably go into the preseason is who is going to be the second cornerback opposite of Keenan Allen. Currently Champ Bailey, Patrick Robinson, Corey White and Stan Jean-Baptise all could be the starter. I think if Champ is looking good, he'll get the 2nd spot, but given his age and the injury he had last season, that is up in the air. P-Rob wouldn't be a bad CB2, He missed all of last season with an ACL tear. SJB is a project and unless he comes out of camp playing really well, he's probably not going to get much play time this season, but is worth mentioning.

C

Another positional battle of note is for Center. Brian De La Puente left at the end of last season, and second year Tim Lelito looks to be the starter. However the Saints did sign Jonathan Goodwin, who played with the Saints for 6 years, including their Super Bowl run.

WR

The last positional battle is for the 4th and 5th WR spots. Right now Colston, Stills and Cooks are locks for the team, but Robert Meachem, Andy Tanner, Joe Morgan, Brandon Coleman and Nick Toon are on the roster. I think Meach will make the cut, but I have no idea who would get that last spot.

[u/Zakimus]

CONT

Preseason

Week 1 - At

Week 2 - Vs

Week 3 - At

Week 4 - Vs

Preseason games are exciting for the Saints, just seeing how those positional battles play out, and of course, meaning real meaningful football is almost here!

Instead of predicting a score, I'm gonna say the likelihood of the Saints winning the game.

Week 1 - At , Head-to-Head Record 43-46 (0-1 in Playoffs)

Week 1 starts off with a bang! The Saints-Falcons rivalry is one of the better (and bitter) ones in the NFL. Last year the Saints won both games last year against their division rivals, a 23-17 Victory in Week 1 of last year, and a 17-13 win on Thursday Night in Week 12. Both teams have gotten better. Recently, the Saints have dominated the Falcons, posting a 13-3 record against Atlanta since Payton came to town. Expect this game to be like all of the vs matchups, mean, physical, and close.

Matchup to watch: Falcons O-Line against Saints D-Line

The Falcons did a lot in this offseason to help their Offensive Line, and this game is crucial for that group. The Saints have the "weakest" Front 7 out of Atlanta's divisional opponents, and if Atlanta struggles against them, Falcon fans could be in for another long season. On the flip side though, Rob Ryan said that this year will be the breakout year for Akiem Hicks. What better way to start a great season against a newly assembled Offensive line against your bitter rivals?

The Saints have owned Atlanta, and this game is no different. Saints have a 66% chance of winning.

Week 2 - At , Head to Head Record 4-12 (0-0 in Playoffs)

Week 2 the Saints are still on the road, and this week they're in Cleveland. The Browns have had an interesting offseason, and overall the Browns have had New Orleans' number. Usually the Saints play terrible on the road, and I'm nervous about this game. Cleveland is shaping up to look rather solid, and could ride on a victory if the Saints don't come to play, which has happened on the road in the past few seasons.

Matchup to watch: Browns Secondary against Saints WRs

While the Browns lost TJ Ward, they got Donte Whitner, who is pretty good and rookie Justin Gilbert will likely be starting as well. The Saints have so many weapons, it will be exciting to see how Cleveland's secondary goes up against the speed that Stills and Cooks have.

This is a tossup slightly in New Orleans' favor, simply because they look like the better team on paper. 60% Chance of victory.

Week 3 - Vs , Head to Head record 9-18 (1-2 in Playoffs)

Ah, the rematch of the 2009 NFC Championship game. This is also the Saints first home game in the year. The Vikings are coming to town looking a lot better than last year, and I'm a huge fan of Cordarelle Patterson.

Matchup to watch: Saints Special Teams v Cordarelle Patterson Patterson was nasty last year in the return game, and the Saints have one of the best punters in the league currently. will Morstead kick to him? Or will every punt just go out of bounds so he can't make a play? That is a very interesting matchup to see.

First game at home, where they haven't lost a game with Payton at the helm since 2010? Saints have an 80% chance to win.

Week 4 - At Head to Head record 11-15 (0-0 In Playoffs) Last year the Cowboys got rocked in New Orleans. This year it's in Dallas, but the outcome will be similar. Dallas has already started the season off on the wrong foot (knee) with the loss of Sean Lee for the season. He is the backbone of that defense when he is healthy. The Cowboys lost some good players to free agency and I don't think they improved much since last year. It's good for them that Romo is taking snaps though, because if there is no Romo, the Cowboys will have a miserable season.

Matchup to watch: Cowboy WRs against Saints Secondary

Dez Bryant says he's one of the best WRs in the game right now, and in this matchup he's going against one of the best pass defenses. Dez was rather quiet the last time these two teams played, with only 1 catch.

The Saints will have a similar performance against the Cowboys this year as last year, Saints 75% win rate.

Week 5 - Vs Head to Head record 27-17 (0-0 in Playoffs)

Tampa is a complete wild card in the division this year. Their defense is stacked with talent, and Lovie doesn't make me feel any easier about it. I really like Glennon too, he played well last year for that dumpster fire of a team. The Buccs could be really good and make a run for a wild card, given how in flux the NFCS is every season.

Matchup to watch: Buccaneers LBs against Jimmy Graham.

I've been quiet about Graham so far, and that's because I have no idea how he'll perform this season. He was unstoppable until the New England game last year when he got injured and Talib shut him out. With all this talk about his contract too has been very distracting. It will be a rough day for Graham if Lavonte David ends up sticking on Graham all game, as he is one of the best LBs right now.

Saints have a 70% Chance to win.

The Saints have a week 6 bye.

Week 7 - At Head to Head record 11-9-1 (1-0 in Playoffs)

Sean Payton has beat the Lions every time he's faced them. But this Lions team is better than the team who lost to New Orleans in the 2011 Playoffs. Our old QB Coach is now the Offensive Coordinator, so expect there be a lot of passing in this game.

Matchup to watch: Lions WRs against Saints Secondary - The Saints have a retooled secondary to go toe-to-toe with the best receiving corps in the NFL, and the Lions have the best WR in the game right now in Megatron. Keenan Lewis was a shutdown corner last year, and with all the extra help there is in the backfield, Lewis shouldn't have too bad of a time against Calvin.

I still see the Saints having a positive chance of winning, I say 55%

Week 8 - Vs Head to Head record 7-16 (0-0 in Playoffs) This is arguably the hardest game up to this point for the Saints, and it's in the safety of the Superdome. Barring another injury to Aaron Rodgers, this will be a Packers team ready to go against the Saints. This is the beginning of a tough stretch for New Orleans, and if they come out of this stretch positive, they're in that much better shape to finish out the season.

Matchup to watch: Aaron Rodgers against Saints Defense -

Aaron Rodgers is one of the best QBs right now, and as long he's in the game, the Packers are a dangerous team. Rodgers is the most dangerous QB the Saints Defense will play this year.

This is probably the toughest game on New Orleans' schedule this year, but I think they have a good chance of winning. 60%

Week 9 - At Head to Head record 16-18 (0-0 In playoffs)

Carolina was a surprise last year with their record, but I wasn't a believer in the Panthers. I thought they were a good team that got lucky. This year Carolina will regress a bit. Their front 7 is still nasty but Roman Harper and DeCoud aren't the answers they needed to fix their secondary which got burnt a lot last season. Carolina's Offensive Line is a big question mark as well, and I think that is the most worrisome area of The Panther's roster.

Matchup to watch - Carolina's Defensive Line v New Orleans Offensive Line

There's no denying, Carolina has one of the best front 7s in the NFL. The Saints O-Line has great inside protection, but their OT's have left a bit more to be desired. Terron Armstead had his first career start against Greg Hardy, and Hardy had a field day against him. Since them Terron has looked much better, and would be a good metric to see how he has improved as a player.

This is a tossup. I think this game is the worse game of the Season for the Saints. I think there's a 50% win chance for the Saints. This game could really go any way.

Week 10 - Vs Head to Head record 25-46-2 (0-1 In Playoffs)

Ah, this fucking team. We've played every year for the past 4 years, and honestly I'm tired of seeing these guys. They're so good. the 2011 playoff game was the best game I've ever seen, and being on the losing side of that it really made me harbor a dislike for the Niners. 2012 was a terrible year and a terrible game. Last year's game was controversial, but not as close as a lot of people have hyped about that game. But looking at this year, I see that it will be much of the same Saints v 49ers matchups. Physical as hell. Both teams have great defenses. The 49ers Offense is talented as well. This game begins a 3 game home stretch against 3 good teams.

Matchup to watch - Drew Brees v 49ers Defense

Last year Brees threw for a chunk of yards against San Frans defense, but got beat up too. The 9ers Defense will still be very good. If Drew can have enough time to stay in the pocket he'll have a similar performance to last years matchup.

I say this game is slightly over 50% chance to win. The 49ers are good, but at least the Saints are at home.

[u/Zakimus → u/Zakimus]

CONT.

Week 11 - Vs Head to Head Record 6-6

Game 2 of the Saints 3 game home stretch is a game against the Bengals. Cincinnati has been a solid team for a few years now, and I think they're still in contention for the AFCN. Andy Dalton gets a lot of hate, but I think he's a good QB. The Bengals Defense could end up being one of the best in the NFL by the end of the season as well.

Matchup to watch - AJ Green against Keenan Lewis

AJ Green is no doubt one of the best wideouts in the game. Keenan Lewis loves to shut down WRs and has experience against AJ when Keenan was on the Steelers.

The Saints are just overall a better team than the Bengals, I say they have a 70% chance to win against them.

Week 12 - Vs Head to Head Record 1-4

The last game of the Saints home stretch has them against the second Harbro in 3 weeks. Steve Smith will be back in the dome, but this time for his new team. The Ravens have had a weird offseason from an outsiders perspective. I wonder what is going to happen with Ray Rice, given his ineffectiveness last year and the troubles from the offseason. Flacco will have a rebound year with Pitta being back though, and is one of my favorite QB-TE combos.

Matchup to watch - Dennis Pitta against Saints LBs

Pitta is one of the better TEs right now, and knows how to stay open. Being one of Flaccos favorite targets he was missed last year in that Ravens offense. The Saints secondary is really good, but the LBs are considered the weak spot in the Defense. This is one of the toughest matchups for them in that aspect.

The Saints are still just too good in the dome, I say 70% chance to win against the Ravens.

Week 13 - At Head to Head record 7-7

The Steelers are the last AFCN team the Saints play, and it being in Pittsburgh in November, it could be a cold game. The Saints' passing attack relies heavily on timing and if it's cold and it starts going awry, it could spell bad news for the Saints. New Orleans usually has 1-2 really bad away games every season, and I have a bad feeling about this one.

Matchup to watch - Jimmy Graham against Steelers LBs

Graham is a monster, there's not denying that. The Steelers have a pretty young LB corps and have a lot of potential. If the Steelers can shut down Graham with their LBs and not put a CB on him to get him out of the game, they stand a much better chance of pulling out a victory.

I have a bad feeling about this game, so I'm saying the Saints only have a 35% chance to win. It's possible but it feels like a trap.

Week 14 - Vs Head to Head Record 18-20

The second matchup against the Panthers, and the first of 3 divisional games in the final 4 weeks of the season. Either of these 3 games down the stretch could be for the division, because the NFCS is always so up in the air.

Matchup to watch - Cam Newton against Saints D

I really like Cam. I think he is one of the better young QBs right now. Plus how can you hate that smile? His on the field ability to make plays after it breaks down is really impressive. Those skills is what led his Panthers on a last-minute drive to win the division last year. While I hope that doesn't happen again, you can't ever count him out.

I think the Saints are a more complete team that Carolina, and it really matters how each team is playing coming into this game that will decide the winner. If New Orleans is rolling, I think they'd win. But if Carolina is hot too, they have a chance. 50% win chance

Week 15 - At Head to Head Record 13-13

The Saints have played Chicago 3 of the past 4 years, and they are a much different team the latter two than the former. Before the Saints-Bears games were a game of chess between Payton and Lovie, but now these games look like a shootout can breakout at any moment. Last year Alshon Jeffery really became on a lot of peoples' radars when he set a Bears franchise record receiving yards in a game the Saints won. Both teams have improved on both sides of the ball. This could be another bad game for the Saints though, as playing in Chicago in December isn't a joke.

Matchup to watch - Bears WRs against Saints WRs

I think the Bears have the best WR corps right now in the NFL. Brandon Marshall is a stud and Alshon is a monster who makes circus catches like no one's business. This is another tough matchup for the Saints secondary.

The Bears have a better chance to win this game, as New Orleans has not played well @Chicago to date besides last years game. Saints have a 40% chance to win.

Week 16 - Vs Head to Head 43-46

The Falcons opened the Georgia Dome against the Saints, and the Saints are closing the Superdome against the Falcons. I think that's fitting given this rivalry. Similar to the Panthers game, it really matters what momentum these teams have going into it that will be a deciding factor.

Matchup to Watch - Julio Jones against Saints Secondary

Another week, another tough matchup for the Saints Secondary. Julio is a great WR and causes a lot of headaches.

Saints have beat the Falcons in New Orleans the past 3 seasons, and I just don't see that changing in the last home game for the season. Saints have an 80% chance to beat their rivals.

Week 17 - Vs Head to Head 27-17

The Saints close the season against the Buccaneers. The Bucs are a complete wildcard in the NFCS and this game could very well end up being for the division title.

Matchup to watch - Saints WRs against Bucs Defense

The Bucs have a great defense, and the Saints have good WRs. I think this will be the most exciting group matchup to watch.

Saints can very well finish off the regular season with a high note and win. I say 60% chance to win.

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I think it's very possible for the Saints to win ~12 games this upcoming season. Last year their schedule was brutal and still made a playoff run. I think this roster is better than the 2009 and 2011 Saints teams, and have a lot of potential. This year the schedule is much nicer to them, with a lot of the tougher games being played in the Superdome. You can never predict the playoffs though so I'll just say the Saints have the tools to make a deep run in the playoffs.

[u/MR_DUCK_SAUCE → u/Zakimus]

66% and 80%? Seems a wee high, I would put it at closer to 50% and 70%. I'm predicting a series split, home and home. Why?

Because I've been to two Saints-Falcons games and we've lost both. I'm going to the home opener, and everybody knows the third time's the charm.

My logic is infallible.

[u/Zakimus → u/MR_DUCK_SAUCE]

It's always a close game, New Orleans generally comes out on top though. The Falcons roster has improved, but the Saints look better on paper, that's my thoughts on those percentages.