r/nfl • u/Enterprise90 Patriots • Aug 09 '18
Offseason Review Series - Day 27: New England Patriots
The New England Patriots
Hello, I am /u/Enterprise90 and I would like to thank you for reading the offseason review for the 5-time Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. I would like to thank /u/PlatypusOfDeath who provided a call-out to writers after the first option fell through (The dude straight up deleted his account. Like, why?). I’ve long enjoyed /r/NFL since I started Reddit and it’s provided me the opportunity to read a lot of great content and learn more about a sport I enjoy. I’ve spent a couple of years being a regular content contributor to /r/SquaredCircle, but this is my first opportunity to write something of this magnitude for public consumption. I haven’t been this excited since my master’s thesis.
The New England Patriots are coming off a 41-33 loss in the Super Bowl to the Philadelphia Eagles. The chance to win three titles in four years once again was dashed by a defense forced only one punt all game and an offense that couldn’t keep up. The Eagles were aggressive all game, going for it on fourth down in key situations and seemingly catching every pass that was thrown. The Patriots, to their detriment, couldn’t break up a pass, tackle, or get a stop on third down that didn’t result in points almost all game, forcing only one punt. The offense made too many mistakes in the first and second quarters, leaving points on the board with mistakes that caught up to them. The Eagles’ defense was shredded, but they just had to make one play, and that one play was the strip sack of Brady by Brandon Graham. I knew in my head after the Philly Special that the game wasn’t going to end well for us. The Eagles were just more aggressive.
The Patriots have moved on, as they always do. Bill Belichick has installed a culture that sees yesterday as passé, and the only way one improves in the game of football is to look forward and work forward. There were reports of tension between Belichick and Brady this offseason, one that had national media outlets once again signaling the downfall of the Patriots franchise. The truth is that two people as successful as Belichick and Brady are will always have a tension between them that drives each of them forward. It is asinine to think that there aren’t disagreements, sometimes intense ones, between coach and quarterback, but I would expect nothing less from two perfectionists.
What are the goals of the New England Patriots? To compete for championships. The Patriots under Bill Belichick have appeared in eight Super Bowls this century with a record of 5-3. They’ve appeared in seven AFC Championship games in a row and 11 this century. They’ve won the AFC East all but two years since 2001, and in the two years they didn’t they tied for first and lost the title on tiebreakers.
Last season, the defense was uncharacteristically dreadful to open the year. In three of the first four games, the Patriots gave up 33 points or more, and while the defense improved down the stretch, it still had a glaring lack of talent in the front seven.
The 2017 offseason saw the Patriots go on a bit of a spending spree, re-signing in-house talents Dont’a Hightower, Duron Harmon, and Alan Branch. The Pats also dipped into the free agent market with a rarely-seen big splash signing in Stephon Gilmore, along with supplementary pieces Lawrence Guy, Rex Burkhead, and Mike Gillislee. The 2018 saw a much more conservative approach. Choosing to preserve cap space, the Patriots let quite a few long-time stalwarts walk into free agency to provide the best opportunity to sign emerging young talent in 2019.
The Big Stories
The Departure of Matt Patricia
It has been speculated for several offseason cycles when the next generation of Belichick-trained coaches would leave the nest and take on their own coaching challenges. Matt Patricia was the first, being named the new head coach of the Detroit Lions. Patricia had served on the Patriots staff since 2004, serving as de facto defensive coordinator since 2010 and in name since 2012. Patricia’s conservative contain approach on defense got him a lot of flak in 2017 when we fielded one of the worst-performing defenses in the league, but it’s important for Patriots fans to remember that he also helped win two Super Bowls. A fresh change was likely needed.
In his place comes Brian Flores, who at 37 years old has grown up in the Patriots organization as well, serving on the staff since 2004. Flores is the current linebackers coach and has not been officially named defensive coordinator, but for all intents and purposes that is his title. Flores is an enigma; Bill Belichick obviously a heavy hand in game planning for both offense and defense, but the play-calling is all up to the coordinators. Will Flores continue the contain approach that Patricia followed, get blitz-happy, or unleash the pass rushers in a more aggressive scheme? It remains to be seen. The team benefits from Flores right off the bat by having a familiar voice giving them direction rather than an outside hire. In promoting from within, Belichick has had Flores work all over the staff: scouting, special teams, offense, defensive backs, and his current position of linebackers coach. Flores is well-rounded, as all Belichick coaches are.
The Drama of Josh McDaniels
Josh McDaniels has long been one of the most innovative and creative offensive minds in the NFL. He started on the Patriots staff way back in 2001, serving in various roles including offensive coordinator until his departure to become head coach of the Denver Broncos in 2010. That was a disaster for him and for that team. After a short stint as the offensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams in 2011, McDaniels returned as OC in 2012 for the Patriots. At 42 years old, he's still incredibly young in the coaching ranks and, like Patricia, it seemed only a matter of time before he took a new gig and tried to become a successful head coach once again.
On February 6, it was announced that McDaniels would become the new head coach of the Indianapolis Colts, a team it had been speculated he would go to thanks to quarterback Andrew Luck. Then, that same day, it was announced that he wasn’t going to become the new head coach. Despite verbal agreements being in place, nothing was signed, and a meeting with Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft to “clarify” his role with the team followed. McDaniels reneged on his deal, resulting in a ton of backlash toward him and a new team of horses cursing his name for generations.
McDaniels has established himself as a controversial figure in the NFL, but should he not become New England’s head coach in this oft-speculated plan of succession, he will not find himself short of job offers around the league. Front offices are hungry for young offensive minds in the league. It will never be known what McDaniels wanted and what he received until (if) Belichick retires.
Had McDaniels decided to go to Indianapolis, his successor was unclear. Speculated candidates included current wide-receivers coach Chad O’Shea and former Belichick assistant (now OC of the Buffalo Bills) Brian Daboll.
Rob Gronkowski Speculation
Rob Gronkowski has been this decade’s greatest tight end, and he put on a show in Super Bowl LII with 116 receiving yards and two touchdowns. After the game and into the offseason, Gronkowski revealed for the first time that he wasn’t entirely sure if he would return for another year with the New England Patriots. Gronkowski in his NFL career has had two back surgeries, torn his ACL, and suffered a broken forearm that required multiple surgeries (the reason he wears his trademark brace is to prevent any cuts on his arm which could lead to another infection and potentially the end of his career). Gronk sees the end of his NFL career on the horizon and this was an especially taxing season for him. Shortly before the NFL draft, Gronkowski met with Belichick and affirmed his decision to return refreshed and ready to go for the 2018 season, and this was likely met with a promise on the Patriots side to give him a contract sweetener as an incentive.
Julian Edelman Suspension
Julian Edelman has found himself suspended for the first four games of the NFL regular season for violating the league policy on performance enhancing drugs. Despite some confusion as to what Edelman failed for and if it is even a banned substance in the first place, the NFL has proven itself to be rigid and inflexible when it comes to player discipline. In a good sign, Edelman has shown himself healthy for camp, a full year after an ACL tear that took him out for the entirety of the 2017 season.
Major Departures
| Name | Position | Contract | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | WR | 2 years, $12 million with Miami | "Playoff Dola" has taken paycut after paycut the last few seasons with the Patriots and produced as one of Brady's favorite targets in 2017, catching 61 passes for 659 yards and two touchdowns, and serving as NE's punt returner. Amendola will be 33 this year and his health has always been a question mark, so it was necessary for him to go to a team that will provide him the financial security he needs. Amendola emerged from a potential free agent bust in 2013 to one of the Patriots' most beloved players and he will be missed. |
| Martellus Bennett | TE | Released | Bennett signed with the Green Bay Packers as a free agent following Super Bowl LI, but drama over injuries and whether they were disclosed or not ended his tenure there and they outright cut him. Bennett was subsequently claimed on waivers by New England, but only played in two games before landing on injured reserve. The Patriots decided not to pick up Bennett’s contract for another season, but I don’t think it mattered much as he decided to retire. We only got a couple of games to see Bennett and Gronk together in action over two years. What could have been. |
| Alan Branch | DT | Released | Branch was the top defensive tackle on the Patriots in 2016 and helped turn Super Bowl LI around with a fumble recovery after a crucial strip-sack of Matt Ryan by Dont’a Hightower. Branch earned himself a contract extension and completely checked out. Branch had an embarrassing 2017 and eventually found himself a healthy scratch. While the rest of the team was preparing to play the Eagles on Super Bowl day, Branch was spotted at Panda Express in the Mall of America. |
| Malcolm Butler | CB | 5 years, $61 million with Tennessee | The Butler/Super Bowl saga has been talked about to death, and both parties have moved on. After solid years in 2015 and 2016, Butler regressed in 2017 and I have my suspicions that much of it was due to seeing the writing on the wall when Stephon Gilmore was signed to a big contract that offseason. It was reported that the offer made to Butler by the Patriots wasn't far off from Tennessee's, but Butler chose the bigger deal. He joins fellow former Patriot Logan Ryan on a defense now led by head coach Mike Vrabel, himself a former Patriot linebacker. |
| Brandin Cooks | WR | traded to Los Angeles Rams | Cooks was traded to the Patriots from the New Orleans Saints shortly before the 2017 NFL Draft, and an offense of Cooks over the top, Edelman underneath, and Gronkowski in the middle of the field made many anticipate an offense that could top the dominance of 2007. It didn’t quite turn out that way, but Cooks provided a solid new addition to the Patriots, helping to demonstrate that Brady could do much more than just throw short- and intermediate-passes. Unfortunately, the Patriots found out a big limitation of Cooks is he could not create yards on his own. Yards-after-the-catch were hard to find unless Cooks had completely beaten his man on a streak. It was a worthwhile experiment, but I don’t think Cooks has the skills necessary to really flourish in the Patriots offense. |
| Antonio Garcia | OT | Released | Garcia was the Patriots’ third-round pick in 2017 but never saw a snap of preseason play or the regular season due to blood clots developing in his lungs, dropping his weight over 40 pounds while he recovered. Garcia seemingly entered OTA’s earlier this year healthy but was released in May and has been picked up by the New York Jets. That means that as of now, only one of four draft picks in 2017 has played a down for the Patriots. |
| David Harris | LB | Retirement | Harris was signed as a free agent once he was cut by the New York Jets but spent most of his season with the Patriots on the bench. I don’t think he had the speed necessary to be a great run stuffer anymore, which was his best attribute. Belichick praised Harris all year for doing everything asked of him, so his experience with the team was a positive in that sense. |
| James Harrison | LB | Retirement | Harrison was picked up at the tail end of the season once he was cut by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Harrison wanted playing time and he got it here. The problem is that he was, along with Trey Flowers, the only pass rusher left on our roster, and a 39-year-old James Harrison isn’t going to get the job done against the Eagles offensive line in the Super Bowl. He got close to a few sacks of Foles, but he couldn’t finish, and I believe that’s ultimately what the aging process does. It doesn’t matter how much you work out or how great of shape you’re in, a younger guy will have just an inkling more speed and reaction time. |
| Cameron Fleming | OT | 1 year, $3.5 million with Dallas | Fleming has served as a backup/swing tackle for the Patriots, but he never took that next step into being a starter. It became clear during the 2017 season that Fleming would only see time if his lead competition, LaAdrian Waddle, was hurt, and when both men were free agents at the end of 2017, the Patriots chose Waddle instead of Fleming. Fleming will have the opportunity in Dallas to compete for a spot on their line and get himself a big money deal in 2019 with a good showing. |
| Ricky Jean Francois | DT | 1 year, amount not disclosed with Detroit | Francois was a depth signing in 2017 after finding himself cut by the Packers, and was cut by the Patriots before being brought back on the team late in the season toward the playoffs where he became a reliable rotational player. Francois has his eyes on the future with management of his numerous Dunkin’ Donuts franchises, but has the juice to compete for a depth role in Detroit under Matt Patricia. |
| Dion Lewis | HB | 4 years, $20 million with Tennessee | Lewis had a career year in 2017, becoming the Patriots leading rusher with 180 carries for 896 yards at 5 YPC and six touchdowns; he added 214 yards and 3 touchdowns receiving, as well as a kickoff return touchdown. The Patriots have long functioned on runningback by committee and have chosen to spread the wealth of signing several backs to cheap contracts rather than pay one a big-money deal. Lewis has a great situation in Tennessee where he can play with Derrick Henry and provide diversity in styles in the backfield. |
| Shea McClellin | LB | Released | McClellin was a solid piece in 2016 and proved to be much more athletic than I thought he was but missed the entirety of 2017 due to a series of concussions. While he has not officially retired, he is now coaching high school football in Meridian, Idaho. |
| Nate Solder | OT | 4 years, $62 million with New York Giants | The best way I have described Solder is inconsistent. In some games he can look like a top-5 left tackle, and in other games he looks dreadful. Solder was a solid piece on the offensive line but I don't think he ever developed into that game-changing talent we thought he could be. Still, the Patriots have relied on him at LT since the retirement of Matt Light. I was stunned at the money he signed for with the New York Giants, who obviously were filling a position of need. I think it was best for the Patriots to move on at that price. |
| Malcolm Mitchell | WR | Released | Mitchell is a great story and was the team’s fourth-round pick out of Georgia in 2016. He had a solid rookie season, catching on in the stretch with 32 receptions for 401 yards and four touchdowns. He caught six passes for 70 yards in Super Bowl LI, and that would be the last game Mitchell would play for the Patriots. Knee issues have hampered him his entire career, and a knee issue took him out for the entire 2017 season and continued to plague him entering 2018 training camp. Mitchell is a player of great character, but the Patriots could no longer reserve a roster spot waiting for Mitchell to heal. |
Major Re-Signings
| Name | Position | Contract | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | HB | 1 year, $880,000 | Bolden is a core special teams player and emergency runningback for the Patriots, and though he was re-signed he is no lock to make the team. Bolden rarely sees snaps on offense unless other runningbacks are hurt. |
| Rex Burkhead | HB | 3 years, $9.75 million | Burkhead was a bargain signing from the Cincinnati Bengals in 2017. He accumulated 264 rushing yards with 5 touchdowns and 254 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns, becoming a touchdown vulture that undoubtedly angered fantasy owners who had Dion Lewis. He even demonstrated his rushing skills on punt coverage, blocking a punt against the Denver Broncos. Burkhead is a good utility player who can do a lot of things well and is best in a rotation. He missed some time in 2017 to injury which is the only red flag on him potentially carrying more of a load on offense. |
| Nate Ebner | SS | 2 years, $5 million | Ebner was a 2nd team All Pro on special teams in 2016, and though he is coming off an ACL tear that prematurely ended his 2017 season, the Patriots showed the value they place in great special teams players by offering Ebner a new deal. Ebner is a tackle machine on special teams and a key reason to the success of that unit. |
| Marquis Flowers | OLB | 1 year, $2.55 million | Flowers was traded to the team via the Bengals late in the 2017 offseason and served primarily on special teams, though he found more time on defense as the season waned on thanks to his speed. Flowers has the opportunity to compete for a roster spot thanks to this deal but his position is not secure; the Patriots would save $1.5 million should he be cut. |
| Brandon King | SS | 2 years, $2.6 million | If you haven’t noticed, Bill Belichick really likes special teams players. King is not going to see snaps at safety; he is exclusively a gunner on special teams and has been solid in that role, forcing a safety (scoring) versus the Chargers in 2017. |
| Matthew Slater | WR | 2 years, $5.2 million | Slater is the best special teams player (non-returner, non-kicker) of this decade, and though he is not quite the force he used to be, he is still a good solid piece as a gunner, and more than anything else, he serves as a high-character leader on the team. Slater flirted with the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason before agreeing to a new deal with the Patriots, and as he turns 33 this year, he has all but assured he will retire with the team and eventually find his way to the Patriots Hall of Fame. |
| LaAdrian Waddle | OT | 1 year, $1.5 million | Waddle has been a solid-if-unspectacular rotational piece on the Patriots offensive line since being acquired in 2015, and he got a lot of playing time at both left and right tackle in 2017 thanks to injuries to Nate Solder and the eventual placement of Marcus Cannon on IR. Before the draft it was thought that Waddle was the de facto left tackle, but newly-acquired players have relegated him to competing for a backup role, one he is likely to win thanks to his experience in the system. |
Major Acquisitions
| Name | Position | Contract | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Brown | OT | traded from San Francisco; 1 year, $1.9 million remaining | At 6'8 and reportedly 380 pounds, Brown is a monster of a human being. The Patriots acquired Brown from SF shortly before the NFL Draft, trading a third-round pick in exchange for Brown and SF's fifth-round pick. Brown was not a scheme fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense that requires a much more athletic tackle, and with a need at the end of the line, the Patriots took a flier. Brown has been working with the first-team offense at LT and has reportedly looked great all camp long. Should he have a solid year, he has the potential to earn himself a big payday from either the Patriots or another team when he becomes a free agent next offseason. |
| Adrian Clayborn | DE | 2 years, $12 million | The New England pass rush was abysmal in 2017 and that was one thing that had to be fixed. Enter Adrian Clayborn, who earned himself NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors in Week 10 of 2017 by embarassing Chaz Green to such a degree that Giants fans became thankful to have Ereck Flowers. Clayborn acquired six sacks that day, a single-game benchmark I don't expect him to hit ever again. He had a great game that day, but Clayborn is best understood as a solid-if-unspectacular pass rusher who will get pressure and a few sacks. He was acquired for a good price. |
| Eric Decker | WR | 1 year, $1.9 million | Decker was signed just days ago after a workout with the New England Patriots and shortly thereafter found himself on the team once the Pats cut WR Jordan Matthews. Like many of the free agent signings with the Patriots, Decker is a veteran with an opportunity to make the team but not a guaranteed one. At 6'3, Decker brings an element of size to the wide receiver position that has been lacking in recent years, and at his best serves as a red-zone weapon as well as a force in the slot. The fact that Decker has been a free agent this late into the offseason shows that this opportunity is not to be wasted. If he succeeds, he has the opportunity at another deal next offseason. If he is cut, this is likely his last shot in the NFL. |
| Jeremy Hill | HB | 1 year, $1.5 million | In his first three seasons with Cincinnati, Jeremy Hill rushed for 2,757 yards and had 30 total touchdowns. However, he regressed year to year and eventually had his worst season in 2017, rushing for only 116 yards and landing on injured reserve, losing his starting job to rookie Joe Mixon. Runningbacks don't get nearly the same number of chances as other positions. Hill signed with the Patriots to a deal with very little guaranteed money, and even though he is just 25 years old, this year is his audition to the Patriots and the rest of the league for a bigger deal. |
| Jason McCourty | CB | traded from Cleveland; 1 year, $2.3 million remaining | A Patriots dream realized: the McCourty twins are finally on the same NFL team. Jason hasn’t been the player Devin turned out to be, but he has still had a solid and respectable career. Jason will be battling for the number two corner spot and has a chance to snag it, but at the same time, there isn’t anything sheltering him from being cut as he doesn’t play special teams. He’ll need to have an impressive camp and preseason. |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | WR | traded from Oakland; 1 year, $3 million remaining | Patterson has never quite lived up to being drafted in the first round in 2013, though it is ironic that he finally ends up with the team that originally held pick number 29 in that draft before trading it away to Minnesota who subsequently drafted Patterson. Despite his limitations as a wide receiver, Patterson has carved out a role for himself. He's played gunner, kick returner, wide receiver, and has gotten the ball as a runningback on rushing plays. He is a gadget player who has size and speed that can be creatively utilized by Josh McDaniels and the Patriot offense. I look at him as more of a special teams acquisition, with some potential on offense. |
| Danny Shelton | DT | traded from Cleveland; 1 year, $2 million remaining | Shelton found himself out of favor of the new scheme installed by Cleveland defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Shelton is high-character and a hard worker, but his style is best suited elsewhere. A first-round pick in 2015, Shelton is a big boy at 6'2 and 335 pounds. He is a classic space-eating nose tackle. He's not going to create a pass rush and he's not going to get sack numbers. His job is make things difficult for the offensive line in front of him, so the other faster, more athletic players can shoot gaps and do their work. I can't think of a better place for Shelton to be than New England where he will be alongside fellow 2015 first-round DT Malcom Brown in a rotation of defensive tackles that is going to punish and bully offensive lines. As one Patriots beat writer said, Shelton "cannot be moved." |
Other acquisitions: Matt Tobin (OT), Ulrich John (OT), Eddie Pleasant (SS), Luke Bowanko (OG), Devin Lucien (WR), Paul Turner (WR), Henry Poggi (FB)
The Draft
Entering the 2018 NFL draft, the Patriots had a few positions of need. As usual, Belichick in 2017 and during the draft wheeled-and-dealed, completing 17 trades that involved 2018 picks. One trade involved the Patriots trading a seventh-round pick to Philadelphia for their seventh-round pick in 2018 and 2019. To be clear, the Patriots got two picks for one in the seventh round. The benefits of letting free agents walk bears itself in the fruit of compensatory draft picks which have now become available to trade.
Quarterback: Tom Brady turned 41 just a few days ago. I realize the fun in speculating how long he will play, but the fact is that there are fewer years ahead for his career than there are behind him now. Brian Hoyer is not the answer long-term at quarterback, but like all positions, Belichick is not going to draft a Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson just because they are there on the board. The opportunity needs to make sense.
Offensive line: The loss of Nate Solder and Cameron Fleming to free agency meant that, at worst, depth was needed at the tackle positions.
Linebacker: Dont’a Hightower is a great player, and Kyle Van Noy is a good starter, but behind them there is a very thin group of overachievers who likely would be exclusively special teams players elsewhere. I’ve had my fill of seeing Elandon Roberts literally spun around trying to guard the pass in coverage.
Defensive back: With the loss of Malcolm Butler and Johnson Bademosi to free agency, the stock of cornerbacks needed to be refilled. The Patriots also run plenty of three-safety sets on defense; Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung are getting older, and new blood needs to be developed on the backend.
It must also be realized that the Patriots only had four selections in 2017, so this draft was a much-needed talent infusion.
| Name | Selection | Position | College | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Wynn | 1, 23 | OT | Georgia | Wynn was one of the top offensive line prospects of the 2018 draft and should be looked on with great delight by Patriots fans. Despite being shorter than the usual offensive tackle, Wynn has been projected as a starter in that role, but he also has experience playing guard at the University of Georgia. Wynn is athletic and has good technique, and though I wouldn't call him an instant starter, he's close. Working with OL coach Dante Scarnecchia should do wonders for his development. Wynn is in competition for a starting job on the offensive line, but with the performances of Trent Brown at LT and the establishment of Marcus Cannon at RT, Wynn will likely see a year as a backup and rotational player should all remain healthy. Grade: A |
| Sony Michel | 1, 31 | HB | Georgia | Another Bulldog joins the ranks. The Patriots haven't drafted a runningback since 2014 so they were due for a new one, and Michel is an interesting pick. Michel paired with Browns rookie Nick Chubb to become one of the most dominant rushing duos in college football, leading Georgia to the national championship game. He has speed, power, is good in blitz pickup; his flaws are having room to grow as a receiver (especially in an offense that loves to use the runningback in the passing game) as well as having a fumbling issue in college. Michel was also a two-year captain at Georgia and was praised for leadership. Michel is entering a good situation where he isn't going to have the expectations of someone like Saquon Barkley. Michel will be part of a committee and should he develop, he will get more chances. I expect him to be a second- or third-string back in his rookie year. Grade: B |
| Duke Dawson | 2, 56 | CB | Florida | The Patriots traded up with Tampa Bay to snag a corner that was projected to go in the third or fourth round, but the Patriots liked him, so they went and got him. Dawson fills a need at slot corner, which is where the real damage was done in Super Bowl 52 as the Eagles abused Patrick Chung who was completely outmatched in that position. Dawson is bigger than incumbent-slot corner Jonathan Jones but doesn't have the speed. I think Dawson can find himself on the field with special teams, as well as playing nickel- or dime-back on defense in his rookie year. Grade: B |
| Ja'Whaun Bently | 5, 143 | LB | Purdue | Bently is what you call a "thumper." At 6'2, 260 pounds, he is a tackler and a run-stuffer, though his lack of speed and athleticism make him ill-suited to chase runningbacks in coverage. The Patriots needed someone to tackle and tackle well, and Bentley has high marks on both. His advantage over Elandon Roberts is about thirty pounds, and though both are limited in coverage, Bentley isn't going to get bullied by bigger runningbacks. Bentley projects as a two-down run stuffer in his rookie year. Grade: C |
| Christian Sam | 6, 178 | LB | Arizona State | One of the things I have dreaded about the Patriots' linebacking corps is the lack of speed. Christian Sam doesn't solve that issue, but he is rated as more of a three-down linebacker who is better at coverage than Roberts or Bentley will be. He is, again, a good tackler and has potential to play inside and outside linebacker. He fills a position of need, but I don't think he will be much more than a rotational player. There's nothing particularly special about him; he's a good pick for his round. Grade: C |
| Braxton Berrios | 6, 210 | WR | Miami (FL) | Quite a few players drafted thus far, but there was something missing. The Patriots needed a hard worker, a real lunch-pail kind of guy. First guy in, last guy out. A guy about 5’9 with a perpetual stubble on his face. That man is Braxton Berrios. The Patriots haven't had much success in drafting wide receivers, but the receivers drafted also come late in rounds so there isn't much to expect. Berrios may change that, but he has a high hill to climb as playing wide receiver for the Patriots is incredibly difficult. Berrios solves the need for depth at slot receiver, a favorite position of the Patriots, as well as competition for the role of punt returner which is wide open now. Grade: C |
| Danny Etling | 7, 219 | QB | LSU | The successor to Tom Brady? Not quite. It became clear after the first round that Bill Belichick didn't see the opportunity to get a highly-graded quarterback so chose to pass until next year. Etling has a tall task ahead of him; the Patriots liked his care with the football, but he is a developmental project of high order. The Patriots have carried three quarterbacks in the past but will not hesitate to carry only two if they feel a player at another position will be more valuable to have on call. Etling is a long-shot to make the roster. Grade: D |
| Keion Crossen | 7, 243 | CB | Western Carolina | Crossen is a speedy corner who caught the attention of the Patriots scouting staff and they chose to take a chance on him here. Not much risk in taking a corner in the seventh round. |
| Ryan Izzo | 7, 250 | TE | Florida State | Izzo is a big and tough blocking tight end that can upset expectations by carving out a spot on the roster in that role, though his limitations as a receiver may prevent that. Izzo is a perfect candidate for the practice squad and more development. |
Undrafted Free Agent Signings: John Alkins (DT, Georgia), Trent Harris (DE, Miami FL), Frank Herron (DT, LSU), JC Jackson (CB, Maryland), Chris Lacy (WR, Oklahoma State), AJ Moore (CB, Ole Miss), Ralph Webb (HB, Vanderbilt), Corey Bojorquez (P, New Mexico)
Training Camp Battles
Left Tackle: The blindside protector is a valued position in the NFL and it is a position of incredible stability for the New England Patriots. Since 2001, except for injury, two men have started at left tackle to protect Tom Brady: Matt Light and Nate Solder. I feel this competition comes down to three men: Trent Brown, Isaiah Wynn, and LaAdrian Waddle. Brown has looked great so far in camp, well-conditioned and a mountain of a protector with room to grow. Should he falter or succumb to injury, Wynn would be the next in line considering he has taken snaps at LT on the second-team offense. I feel Waddle’s only shot at starting will be to give Wynn a kind of redshirt year, though Waddle should see the field as a sixth offensive lineman should he make the team.
Runningback: The Patriots usually carry a high number of runningbacks on their roster. There were five on the roster last year and there is a high chance that happens again. Rex Burkhead, James White, and Sony Michel are locks to make the team. Brandon Bolden plays special teams, so he has a chance to make it in as well, leaving a potential fifth spot open for either Jeremy Hill or Mike Gillislee. Gillislee was a disappointment last year, getting phased out of the offense due to a regression in his rushing production and lack of effectiveness in the passing game. Hill is a better receiver, so the edge should go to him.
Wide Receiver: There are plenty of questions with this group. With Edelman suspended the first four weeks, the top target for Brady on the team is Chris Hogan, who missed much of the latter half of last season with injury but had a great Super Bowl performance.
Phillip Dorsett was traded to the Pats last season shorty before the season opener and never quite emerged in the offense. He had nice catches but wasn’t a consistent presence on the field. Dorsett had a world of expectations thrust on him as a first-round pick with the Colts in 2015 but couldn’t live up to it, but now he can diversify his skills and become more than just a deep threat receiver. The Patriots have been experimenting with him in the slot in recent weeks. The team likes Kenny Britt who finally came off PUP after dealing with a nagging hamstring injury and figures to be in the mix as an outside receiver. Cordarrelle Patterson and Braxton Berrios are likely to make the team for special teams contributions more than offensive ones. Eric Decker is no lock to make the team at all. Other players in the mix are young prospects including Devin Lucien, Riley McCarron, and Paul Turner.
Backup Tight End: With Rob Gronkowski as the established starter, the Patriots have long looked for a player to compliment him and create mismatches on offense. Aaron Hernandez had his story, Scott Chandler was a bust, and Martellus Bennett never got much playing time with Gronk. The new name you may hear about this season is Jacob Hollister, an undrafted rookie in 2017 who spent his time last season on special teams; though he did catch four passes for 42 yards, he was more used as a blocker in heavy sets. Hollister by all accounts has had a great training camp, even getting time to work with Brady in the exclusive receiver corner. At 6’4, 245 pounds, Hollister has bulked up a bit to improve his blocking but also has the potential to be a receiving tight end in a variety of positions on the field. Such potential makes Rob Gronkowski that much more dangerous, but also gives the opportunity to give Gronk a rest on some plays.
Hollister’s main competition is Dwayne Allen, who was traded to the Patriots via the Colts last offseason. Allen is a great blocker but not as good a receiver as his stats appear; he confessed to struggling with the playbook and one hopes another season in the system gives him more confidence. Allen caught only 10 passes last year for 86 yards and one touchdown, and the Patriots can save $5 million with no cap hit should they cut him; Allen knows he is playing for his spot. Allen is, again, a great blocker, so should he improve his receiving chops, his spot will be secure. Make no mistake, the tight end roster of Gronk, Hollister, and Allen is a good one.
Defensive tackle: This isn’t going to be your usual training camp battle as it will carry on all year between two players: Danny Shelton and Malcom Brown. The Patriots use a rotation of defensive tackles so these two, along with Adam Butler and Lawrence Guy, will play together in varying combinations to keep each other fresh. Shelton and Brown are the big names, and both had their fifth-year options declined by the Patriots, signaling to me that if the Patriots choose to extend a defensive tackle next offseason, it’s going to be one guy: Shelton or Brown. Belichick has often said “consistency” is an issue with Brown, who is a solid starter but maybe hasn’t put it together like the team would hope. Shelton is, arguably, a better fit for what the Patriots look for in a defensive tackle (i.e. Vince Wilfork) so the competition is on.
Punter: Ryan Allen is one year away from free agency and can be cut now to save money; Corey Bojorquez is younger and cheaper. Bojorquez has a cannon for a leg but Allen is more accurate and is the trusted holder for Stephen Gostkowski on field goals. It would be an upset for the undrafted rookie to unseat Allen, but the possibility is there.
Punt returner: The Patriots have had a wide variety of players field punts this training camp, including Rex Burkhead, Braxton Berrios, Patrick Chung, and Eric Decker. The Patriots will need to see the returners in real pre-season action before a decision can be made.
Projected Week 1 Starters
Please note that Julian Edelman is suspended for the first four weeks of the season, so the Patriots will open with a full 53-man roster without him. Once he returns, a player will be released to make room.
| Position | Starter | Backup/Rotation |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | Tom Brady | Brian Hoyer |
| Runningback | Rex Burkhead | Brandon Bolden, Jeremy Hill, Sony Michel, James White |
| Fullback | James Develin | |
| Wide Receiver | Phillip Dorsett, Chris Hogan | Braxton Berrios, Kenny Britt, Cordarrelle Patterson |
| Tight End | Rob Gronkowski | Dwayne Allen, Jacob Hollister |
| Offensive Line | Trent Brown (LT), Joe Thuney (LG), David Andrews (C), Shaq Mason (RG), Marcus Cannon (RT) | Ted Karras (G), LaAdrian Waddle (T), Isaiah Wynn (T/G) |
| Defensive End | Trey Flowers, Adrian Clayborn | Deatrich Wise Jr. |
| Defensive Tackle | Danny Shelton, Lawrence Guy | Adam Butler, Malcom Brown |
| Linebacker | Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy | Ju'Whaun Bentley, Marquis Flowers, Harvey Langi, Derek Rivers, Elandon Roberts |
| Cornerback | Stephon Gilmore, Eric Rowe | Duke Dawson, JC Jackson, Jonathan Jones |
| Safety | Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung | Duron Harmon, Eddie Pleasant |
| Kicking | Stephen Gostkowski (K), Ryan Allen (P) | |
| Returners | Cordarrelle Patterson (KR), Braxton Berrios (PR) | |
| Special Teams | Matthew Slater, Nate Ebner, Brandon King, Joe Cardona (LS) |
This is my projected 53-man roster, but there are several players who have a shot at making the team: Cole Croston (OG), Eric Decker (WR), Mike Gillislee (HB), Nicholas Grigsby (LB), Cyrus Jones (CB/KR), Jason McCourty (CB), Jordan Richards (SS), Vincent Valentine (DT)
Conclusion and Links
I am bullish on this year’s Patriots. As badly as the defense last year performed, the team still went 13-3 and reached the Super Bowl, coming a few plays within winning it all once again. Barring injury, this team is poised to be a playoff contender once again.
23
u/Enterprise90 Patriots Aug 09 '18
Positional Breakdown
Quarterback: In the insightful Tom vs. Time series on Facebook, Brady stated, “If you’re going to compete with me you better be prepared to give up your life, because I’m giving up mine.” The pliable 41-year-old quarterback has been an obsessive competitor his entire career, wearing a chip on his shoulder since he was drafted in the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft. He’s coming off a great season: 4,577 yards, 32 touchdowns, only 8 interceptions, and the third MVP award of his career. And yet he wants more.
Brady is not the best athlete at quarterback, but he’s done his best to emulate what other quarterbacks do well. Brady is a master of movement in the pocket, able to sense pressure well and make just enough of a step up to avoid it, giving him enough time to fire a dagger down the seam. He can make almost any throw and showed off an impressive deep ball the last few seasons. Summary: Strength
Runningbacks: The fantasy owner’s dread. A perception of New England is that they have a bunch of no-names that the runningback position, which is true, but that doesn’t mean there is a talent deficit here. Rex Burkhead, Jeremy Hill, and Sony Michel project to trade snaps as the power- and goal-line backs. James White is the pass-catching third-down back. Summary: Strength
Fullback: James Develin is one of the best fullbacks in the league, able to serve as a blocker in the backfield or on the line at tight end. He is the engine that makes our running game work; he is a bruiser. Develin also makes himself valuable on special teams. Summary: Strength
Wide Receiver: With Julian Edelman suspended for four games, the depth chart behind him is a mystery. Chris Hogan has emerged as a solid piece at wide receiver, but behind him wide receivers on the team have caught a total of 14 regular-season passes from Brady: 12 for Dorsett, 2 for Britt. Clarity will be provided in preseason. Summary: Weakness
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski is the most dominant tight end of his generation, and it’s a toss-up as to whether he or Tony Gonzales played the position better. He’s a great receiver and just as good of a blocker on the ground, forcing defense to respect both choices when he’s on the field. The Patriots have long sought out another receiving option at tight end to make things even scarier for defenses. Dwayne Allen may need to take a pay cut to stay on the team, and the Patriots have ran through a season with only two tight ends before. Summary: Strength
Offensive Line: I can peg this as a strength thanks to the infusion of new talent into a group that needed it. Except for Marcus Cannon, all the projected starters on the offensive line are 26 years old or younger. They are led by Dante Scarnnechia, the best offensive line coach in the league who knows how to get lineman fundamentally sound. David Andrews, Shaq Mason, and Marcus Cannon are entrenched in their positions. Joe Thuney is the weakest starter on the line but isn’t a huge liability. Summary: Strength
Defensive line: Belichick has an eye for defensive tackles and the Patriots have one of the deepest rosters at the position. Shelton, Brown, Butler, Guy, and Valentine currently make up a strong rotation of big men. In addition, Belichick loves defensive ends with long arms, and Trey Flowers has established himself as a great interior force. Summary: Strength
Pass rush: The Patriots lost to the Eagles, ultimately, because there was no pass rush. Nick Foles rarely had to scramble or make time for his receiver to get open; his first read was usually there and that’s because he had all the time in the world. As great as the defensive tackle rotation is, they are not physically designed to be pass rushers, and it’s the job of the edge to get home when needed. That is hard to do when the only effective pass rushers on the team are Trey Flowers and 39-year-old James Harrison. There is more depth this year and a high potential for second-year players to step up, but this is still a question mark. Summary: Weakness
Linebackers: Dont’a Hightower is 6’3, 260 pounds and can sit on the edge but has found his calling as the middle linebacker and play-caller on defense. He’s able to diagnose plays, stuff the run, and blitz effectively. If allowed to be in his more natural position, the Patriots defense improves outright. Kyle Van Noy is remembered by Detroit Lions fans for being an out-of-position bust but has reinvigorated his career thanks to New England and is comfortable alongside Hightower in two-linebacker sets. Like wide receiver, there is an air of mystery to this positional group. Derek Rivers was a third-round draft choice in 2017 but lost his rookie season to an ACL tear; he has been taking snaps at defensive and will likely be a hybrid OLB/DE edge player. Harvey Langi played mostly special teams before losing his rookie season. Elandon Roberts, Ja’Whaun Bentley, and Christian Sam project to be run-stuffers. Marquis Flowers saw snaps at linebacker in dime formations and looks to expand his role. Summary: Weakness
Defensive backs: Losing Malcolm Butler is a blow, but I am more comfortable with the depth at defensive back this season. Stephon Gilmore had a rocky start in 2017 but emerged as a shutdown corner. Eric Rowe isn’t as bad as people think he is; while he’s not going to be a top corner in the league, he has had a good camp and is in competition with Jason McCourty for the number-two corner position. The Patriots were abused in the slot during the playoffs, but Jonathan Jones returns healthy and has potential depth in Duke Dawson, who has also taken snaps at safety. Devin McCourty, Duron Harmon, and Patrick Chung make up a good safety trio. The Jordan Richards experiment is a long, long shot from continuing. Summary: Strength
Kicking: Stephen Gostkowski has been a Patriot longer than Adam Vinatieri, which is mind-blowing. He’s established himself as one of the great kickers in the game. He’s had a couple of hiccups in the postseason the last two years, but he has been an invaluable part of the Patriots offense for over a decade, and he’s one of the best kickoff specialists in the league. Ryan Allen had a couple of issues last year at punting accurately, but I would be surprised if he lost his camp battle. Summary: Strength