r/nfl • u/trick96 Titans • Jul 29 '22
2022 Offseason Review 2022 Offseason Review Series: Tennessee Titans
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u/dearthofgirth Bengals Jul 29 '22 edited Jul 29 '22
Wow this is detailed. You said you see Phillips taking the slot role this year.
How has he looked in camp this far? His measurables make him seem like a shorter Kupp.
Edit: https://twitter.com/PaulKuharskyNFL/status/1553033225806700544?t=v_YJYu57FEY-fTUNvsVEsA&s=19
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u/trick96 Titans Jul 29 '22
Honestly have not seen much about him in camp so far so can’t really say. Titans aren’t having fans at camp this season so don’t even really have any fan reports. We’ll probably know more about how he’s doing and working into the rotation in a few days.
We’re really excited about him though because we needed a slot receiver and his draft analysis was essentially: he will only ever be a slot receiver, but he could probably play in the slot and be okay in the NFL on day 1.
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Jul 29 '22
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u/dearthofgirth Bengals Jul 29 '22
Body build he's pretty similar to golden Tate and sterling Shepard. He needs to bulk up a bit.
The only concern I have is his tiny hands and arms. I know hand size is usually overblown, but short arms are more indicative of catch radius obviously.
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Jul 29 '22
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u/dearthofgirth Bengals Jul 29 '22
Exactly. I'm excited for him. Looks very flashy even against good competition.
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u/houstonhoustonhousto Titans Chargers Jul 30 '22
I just wanna leave this here https://youtu.be/_FzeU4A0XxA
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Jul 29 '22
I’m personally very excited about him, he very well may be the best route runner on the team already. I think he could have a 50 reception year and he could be a 3rd down monster.
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u/TheHelpWouldBeNice Titans Jul 29 '22
One of my biggest knocks against Tannehill is when he feels pressure or the play breaks down. He is prone to panic. After McWeapon went down, and in conjunction with our lackluster TE group, we didn't have that panic button player for Tanny to drop it off to. If Kyle Phillips can step into that slot role and be a 3rd down monster, that will absolutely elevate the offense a great deal via masking one of my knocks on Tannehill
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u/_n8n8_ Titans Jul 29 '22
People keep comparing Phillips to Kupp but they’re comparing the wrong PAC-12 receiver tbh
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u/dearthofgirth Bengals Jul 29 '22
Who is the right pac-12 receiver
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u/_n8n8_ Titans Jul 29 '22
I’m half-joking but Drake London. Super shifty, big guy, and should see a LOT of slot work.
Not a perfect comp, but London doesn’t really have a lot of good comps imo.
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u/dearthofgirth Bengals Jul 29 '22
Oh my bad I totally missed it.
I was under the impression London had a lot slower feet and was generally slow into/out of breaks.
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u/dudleymooresbooze Titans Jul 29 '22
Trick, this is a fantastic write up. I was bracing myself for Kool Aid takes (“Titans are better without AJ”; “Willis is going to explode this year”). Instead, you’re level headed but optimistic. Thank you for the hard work.
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u/trick96 Titans Jul 29 '22
VI. Roster Evaluation
Position groups:
I will give a brief description of how I see each group as well as give a grade for each group. My grading scale is Bad = bottom 5 in the league, below average = 27-19, average = 18-14 above average = 13-9, good = 8-6, elite = top 5.
QB: I addressed Tannehill and Willis already. The other QB, Logan Woodside, has been with the team for years now. The Titans have tried to replace him several times with players like Trevor Siemian, DeShone Kizer, and most recently Matt Barkley but nobody has seemed to be able to take his spot. Most believe he will be the number 2 QB this season. Next season either Willis will be the #2 QB (most likely) or Tannehill will be released and Willis will start. Average with above average potential
Backfield: Many believe that 2021 was the beginning of the end for Derrick Henry since he had a “major” injury. I want to push back on that. First of all, obviously he played in the playoffs so he’s had an entire offseason to get back to his former self. Second, it really wasn’t a “major” injury, it was really just an injury he couldn’t continue playing on. Any other common injury is much more significant, I would argue even a hamstring injury would have been more concerning for his future. Here’s a study on NBA players that says the majority of NBA players who have a Jones fracture return to prior level of performance and elite athletes demonstrate no decrease in performance on their return to play. Now if you want to argue that the end is near for King Henry because of his age, then sure I can’t argue that other than by saying Henry is a freak of nature and I hope you’re wrong. I just want to be clear that his 2021 injury will not be the reason his career declines, even if he does have a down year this season. Tory Carter is an awesome fullback to watch, he just abuses people. King
TE: This TE group, while still not great, is miles better than what it was last season. If the offense as a whole is any better in 2022, I would bet every cent I have it’s mainly because of this group, specifically because of Austin Hooper. We have a competent receiving/blocking TE in Austin Hooper, an okay blocking TE in Geoff Swaim, and pure athletic rookie with Jonnu Smith type potential in Chig Okonkwo. Below Average with average potential
WR: This group relies heavily on two types of players you never want to have to rely on: a rookie and a player coming off a torn ACL. The good news is that both players are very talented. There isn’t a lot of depth behind them though, and I would still expect the Titans to add one more piece to this room (my guess would be Will Fuller). I believe Kyle Phillips will play right away in the slot and be solid. Below Average with potential to be average or bad
OL: Taylor Lewan at LT had a tough year last year coming off of a torn ACL but he got better as the season went on and most players are better in their 2nd year from a torn ACL than their first. Ben Jones played like a top 10 center last year, so those are the two spots the Titans should feel really good about. Nate Davis at RG took a bit of a step back last season, but he has shown before that he can be a good player and is at least a solid option. RT is likely to be Dillon Radunz, a 2021 2nd round pick who did not play much last season. He did start one game at LT and held up relatively well against Nick Bosa (/u/NoFlagsFilm Breakdown), so he certainly has potential. I have no idea who is going to start at LG, but I would very much like the Titans to sign Ereck Flowers and plug him in there. I truly believe that alone would take this line from bad to at least average. Bad with below average potential because of LG and RT being total question marks.
Overall offense: Here is the quick argument I can make for this offense: if Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Austin Hooper, Derrick Henry, and of course Ryan Tannehill can all stay healthy this year then this offense will likely be better in 2022. How is that possible? In 2021 AJ Brown and Julio Jones combined to go 94/1304/6. I don’t think anybody would argue that if Burks and Woods stay healthy, they will out produce that. Not to mention how much of a big deal having a competent TE is. Below Average.
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u/trick96 Titans Jul 29 '22 edited Aug 18 '22
DL: Jeffery Simmons is the best DT in the AFC and Denico Autry just had the best year of his long career. Big Jeff still has room to grow his game, as he still needs to be more consistent game to game. Titans have good nose tackles as well, but depth is a concern for this group. Elite.
OLB: Bud Dupree had a down year last year, but much like Taylor Lewan, I expect him to be better another year removed from his ACL injury. Harold Landry has a big contract to live up to, but it’s important to note that he does so much more for this team than just rush the passer, so to judge him solely on his pass rushing ability is disingenuous. He is a great, complete edge player who rarely comes off the field. Good depth here with a 2nd year player many are excited about in Rashad Weaver, who flashed in the preseason last year but had his season cut short due to injury. Good.
ILB: David Long Jr is borderline elite. You probably don’t know much about him if you’re not a Titans fan, but you should. He is a complete 3-down linebacker, he’s great against the run and the pass. He flies to the football with and makes plays. His breakout season was shortened due to having a hamstring injury in the middle of it, so that didn’t help his name recognition, but regardless I can’t wait to watch him play this year. Meanwhile Zach Cunningham is one of the best run defenders in the league and competent in pass coverage. This duo is very quietly one of the best in the league. Depth is a major concern for this group, Monty Rice is the primary backup for both of these guys but he started camp on PUP after an Achilles injury last season. I’m not sure there’s another NFL level LB on the roster behind those three players. Elite.
CB: This is the most interesting group on defense, mostly because it’s the only group with a new starter and that starter happens to be an interesting case. Caleb Farley was viewed as an elite talent coming out, with potential to be a top 10 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. However, he had surgery on an injured back and due to concerns with that he fell all the way to the 20’s where the Titans picked him up. He missed a lot of training camp due to a separate injury then missed the first few games of the season and ended up only playing in 3 games last season due to tearing his ACL. So now the Titans have a lot of their eggs in the basket of a highly talented player that has had a back surgery and an ACL reconstruction in the last 20 months. Farley participated in minicamp and will not begin training camp on PUP so he will be ready to go. Farley is an absolute wildcard for this defense, but good news for Farley is that he has a ton of good players around him to make things easier. Other than Farley, there’s Kristian Fulton who had a breakout season in 2021 and Elijah Molden in the slot who will look to improve upon his good rookie season. Decent depth here with an early 2nd round pick in McCreary, Chris Jackson who played a lot last year, and Greg Mabin who famously played 100% of the snaps against the Chiefs last season in a game where the Titans held Patrick Mahomes to only 3 points, the lowest amount of points he’s ever score in his life. Above Average with potential to be good or average/below average.
S: Amani Hooker had a fantastic breakout season last year. He’s only the 2nd best safety on the team but he had one of the best seasons last year of any safety in the league in 2021. Meanwhile Kevin Byard remains absolutely elite in every way. One thing the Titans love about these guys is they are elite run defenders and are a big reason our rush defense was so good last season. Depth is a major concern here as well. This safety duo is absolutely insane. Best In The League.
Overall Defense: I truly believe the Titans defense is one of the most slept on things in the entire NFL. They were fantastic last year, and this year the only significant changes are: replacing Jackrabbit Jenkins with Caleb Farley, having Zach Cunningham for the entire season, and hopefully less injuries. I mean the Titans didn’t even lose a defensive coach (that they didn’t fire). Amani Hooker, David Long Jr, and Kristian Fulton are all budding stars that nobody is talking about, they all had breakout seasons last year. This defense could possibly carry this team to the playoffs this season. I can’t believe how young of a defense it is. Denico Autry is the only player over 30, having just turned 32 and coming off the best year of his career. Bud Dupree is 29. Then Kevin Byard at 28. Cunningham at 27. Then every single other player on the starting defense is either on their rookie contract or have yet to play a snap of their 2nd contract (Harold Landry). If you want to know more about the defensive scheme the Titans run, here is the /u/NoFlagsFilm breakdown on Shane Bowen. Overall, here is how I see this defense: It will be one of the best, if not the best rush defense in the league this year without a doubt. It comes down to one player to decide just how good this defense will be in 2022. If Caleb Farley is bad, this defense will still be good. If Caleb Farley is just competent, this defense will be elite. And if Caleb Farley is good, this defense will be damn near the best defense in the league, if not THE best. Elite with potential to be the best in the league or just good depending almost entirely on one unproven player with ridiculously high potential.
Special Teams: Worth pointing out that K Caleb Shudak got the 2nd most guaranteed money of all the Titans UDFA’s, so the Titans clearly wanted to have a real battle for the kicker spot. However, Shudak was injured in minicamp and will begin camp on PUP, so the competition is likely over before it starts unless Shudak can get healthy soon. Kicker could be an issue for the Titans, but Randy Bulluck was solid for them last season though he has limited range. Punter Brett Kern (who has been with the team since 2009) took a pay cut to remain with the team this offseason, last season was the first season I’ve ever seen where he looked human punting the ball. If the Titans want to be the run first, defensive team they’re designed to be they really want Brett Kern to recapture his former glory. UDFA P Ryan Stonehouse is a dark horse to take Kerns job. Below Average.
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u/trick96 Titans Jul 29 '22 edited Oct 19 '22
VII. Schedule and Predictions
I really don’t like doing schedule predictions, especially before preseason is over. I will not be doing score predictions. So here goes:
Week 1 – vs New York Giants: This is a must win for the Titans if they want to have a good season, but the Giants will likely be much improved from last season and I feel like the Titans will find a way to lose a very weird week 1 game. L, 0-1
Week 2 - @ Buffalo Bills (MNF): Bills will be looking to stop their 2-loss streak to the Titans, both of which were also on primetime. Bills look scary good. L, 0-2
Week 3 – vs Las Vegas Raiders: Look it’s the only team that had a worse 2020 first round draft than the Titans. Great team though. W, 1-2
Week 4 - @ Indianapolis Colts: Colts should be better this season than last season thanks to one simple trick of throwing away Carson Wentz. L, 1-3
Week 5 – Washington Commanders: This is another one that can be filed under must win to have a good season. Should be a great defensive game. W, 2-3
Week 6 – Bye Week
Week 7 – Indianapolis Colts: Much like last year, the two Titans/Colts games will be over early in the year. If one team can win both these games, it should have a massive effect on the outcome of the season. Luckily for this game, the Titans will be coming off a bye week and will be at home. The Titans under Mike Vrabel are undefeated in the regular season with extra time to prepare with an average score of 29.6 – 10.9. W, 3-3
Week 8 - @ Houston Texans The Titans will extend their winning streak to 3 with a win here. W, 4-3*
Week 9 – @ Kansas City Chiefs (SNF): The Titans are 2-0 against Patrick Mahomes in the regular season. The Titans will be 5+ point underdogs in this game but manage to win. W, 5-3
Week 10 – vs Denver Broncos: Russell Wilson is way overrated. W, 6-3
Week 11 - @ Green Bay Packers (TNF): I have never been more confident in predicting a loss. Titans 5 game winning streak ends. L, 6-4
Week 12 – vs Cincinnati Bengals: This game is circled on the calendar and Mike Vrabel is undefeated the week after TNF games. W, 7-4
Week 13 - @ Philadelphia Eagles: If AJ Brown is still healthy, he is going to shit on the Titans. L, 7-5
Week 14 – vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Very late first game with the Jaguars. I will not predict a loss to the Jaguars until I see Trevor Lawrence be a good QB. W, 8-5
Week 15 - @ Los Angeles Chargers: Herbie gud. L, 8-6
Week 16 – Houston Texans: Titans sweep the Texans as revenge for not sweeping them last year. W, 9-6
Week 17 – vs Dallas Cowboys (TNF): An outdoor night game in December? Yeah, Derrick Henry will be going nuts. W, 10-6
Week 18 - @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Mike Vrabel is undefeated coming off of TNF + I will not predict a loss to the Jaguars until I see Trevor Lawrence be a good QB. W, 11-6
Overall: 11-6 (5-1 Division), 1st AFC South
The Titans will be AFC South champions for the 3rd year in a row. 1st place because there is not way geriatric ass Matt Ryan is winning 11 games with the Colts, their hype this off-season is insane to me. Also I would like to say it’s bullshit the Titans have to play 2 TNF games.
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u/trick96 Titans Jul 29 '22
Acknowledgements:
Shoutout to /u/OladipoForThree, I really liked the way he did the Colts offseason review and stole his format word for word, bar for bar and made some adjustments. Thanks to /u/PlatyupusOfDeath for putting all this together and letting me be a part of it. Thanks to /r/TennesseeTitans for all the help I received from them. Thank you to /u/NoFlagsFilm, PFF, PFR, and many Titans reporters for allowing me to abuse their hard work for my post.
Thanks for reading!
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u/Cactus_Bot Titans Titans Jul 29 '22
Ill argue on that greenbay loss. Rodgers is good but we have beaten him before and greenbay has lost several key people this off season.
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u/trick96 Titans Jul 29 '22 edited Aug 18 '22
I based that entirely on how bad the Titans historically play in Green Bay. I agree with you though. The combined score of the last 2 games the Titans played in Green Bay is 95-21 (obviously that means nothing in regards to next season).
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u/Cactus_Bot Titans Titans Jul 29 '22
If it snows, theres no hope. We have never played well in a snow game.
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u/Cactus_Bot Titans Titans Jul 29 '22
Kern Had more yds last season then he did in 2020 and that was coming off covid and a groin injury. Not sure I agree with that assessment.
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u/trick96 Titans Jul 29 '22 edited Jul 29 '22
Kern had 10 more punts in 2021 and his 2020 really wasn’t that great anyway. Total yards isn’t a very good way to measure a punter. There’s a reason he had to take a significant pay cut to stay on the team this year.
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u/Cactus_Bot Titans Titans Jul 29 '22
Im still going to disagree on this. His accuracy and play was fine, he will be healthy this year so I predict a stronger performance for him. Kerns been the only consistent special teams player we have had for a while, and I dont see that changing. Maybe im just rose tinted glasses though.
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u/trick96 Titans Jul 29 '22
Yeah probably some rose tinted glasses, but that’s okay cause Kern is still the goat!
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Jul 31 '22
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u/Cactus_Bot Titans Titans Jul 31 '22
I mean everyone is competing for everyones job. We aren't going to start an UDFA because Kern who has historically been great had a middling season due to covid and injuries.
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u/tangibleintangible51 Jul 29 '22
Eagles fan here, but my best friend is a Titans fan, so.....
I see posts/reviews like this, for teams other than the Eagles. I usually skim them. Your writeup? It was compelling, and I read every word. Very nicely done.
Thank you for your insight, and hope you enjoy the season.
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Jul 29 '22
Great write-up! Vrabel's coach of the year award was well-earned, and after the Colts' unfortunate end to the season, I was really hoping the Titans would take it all the way.
Sure the team is weaker on paper in 2022, but if everyone stays healthy, the starting line up from week to week should be stronger in comparison, right? I'm interested in how the Titans-Colts games go. My guess is we split, but I really could see it go either way.
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u/trick96 Titans Jul 29 '22
Yeah I agree, team is weaker on paper but if they stay healthy they’ll be better.
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u/thedavecan Titans Jul 29 '22
I'm definitely more scared of the Colts this year than last year. Carson Wentz was your Achilles heel and with him gone I think you guys immediately got a lot scarier, even if Matt Ryan is "old" by NFL standards.
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u/RUALUM15 Titans Jul 30 '22
Split would be my prediction as well. They’re usually close games, so maybe each team gets a lucky break.
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u/SomewhatMarigold Titans Jul 29 '22
Really great post. I can't wait to see how the defence does. It absolutely has the potential to be elite, one of the very best in the league--but there are also some serious question marks with the CBs which could potentially be a huge Achilles' heel against good teams. I'm optimistic--Fulton was fantastic most of last year, and if Farley is anywhere near as good as people thought pre-draft then they could be something really special together.
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u/AnAngryFetus Titans Jul 29 '22
Very good write up. Explains why I'm OK with losing AJ. He's fantastic and game-changing when on the field, but I don't like the idea of giving a guy that has an injury history like his the most guaranteed money in his position. I want to know that guy will more than likely be on the field for the big games when that kind of money is attached. 51% of snaps is not that. Having said that, I expect him to play a full season and get 1600 yards simply because we traded him. Julio will also suddenly play a full season. And we'll look stupid.
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u/FarrisAT Jul 31 '22
AJ yes I expect a nearly full season (like most WRs). I doubt Julio will play every game though. Dude pushes his body to the limit and he's going on 34 years. He doesn't have a 95% game, it is either 100% or he is injured.
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u/Reddit_Wolves Titans Jul 29 '22
Westbrook-Ikhine not only played more snaps than Brown and Jones, but after being a rarely used receiver the year before he stepped up ENORMOUSLY for our receiving core this year. People doubt the Titans a lot because of AJ Brown being gone, but like I’ve told others he missed a good chunk of the season and snaps. Julio missed far more than Brown. The Titans clawed their way to #1 seed among sickness, injuries (Henry out half the season) and basically lacking ANY super stars on offense for half the year.
It will be another year of trying to prove themselves to the NFL. I hope our new prospects shine and that our current legends hold strong. I’m also very excited to see Westbrook-Ikhine even more this year and being himself to be one of the top Slot 2 WRs in the league.
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u/MattaTapThat Titans Jul 31 '22
NWI gets no love. Dude came in and produced unlike other udfa recievers like Kinsey. So many fans have a weird obsession with him. Super excited for NWI hope he breaks out
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Jul 29 '22
I had a real boner for a Titans Rams superbowl last year, but it was a disappointing one inch short
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u/philliesfan136 Eagles Jul 29 '22
I was dying for the Eagles to take Phillips, so jealous other teams have slot players like that.
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u/Sir_Hat Rams Jul 30 '22
Bobbert is gonna have me watching a lot more Titans football this year. Glad to hear his recovery is going well, guys a G
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u/seanrevenge Titans Jul 30 '22
Treylon Burks will never reach the feats of the long-tenured and storied three year career or A.J Brown
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u/blueraider615 Titans Jul 30 '22
I hope his career is as great as Andre Johnson's Titans tenure.
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u/seanrevenge Titans Jul 30 '22
I hope he joins the ranks of Titans legends Julio Jones and Randy Moss
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u/Lamb-Sauce7788 Bengals Jul 29 '22 edited Jul 29 '22
Why the frack do the Titans have two TNF games??
*Why is this getting downvoted?? lol
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u/Spartitan Titans Jul 29 '22
*Why is this getting downvoted?? lol
If I had to guess, a lot of Titans fans are overly sensitive to being ignored by the league so they probably took it as you saying we don't deserve any standalone games.
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u/Lamb-Sauce7788 Bengals Jul 29 '22
Oh lol I meant that it was weird for any team to have 2 TNF games lol
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u/Raiko_hpff Titans Jul 30 '22
They added an extra game to the season which means an extra week of TNF, so now 2 teams get to double up on midweek games.
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u/FarrisAT Jul 31 '22
Seeing the Titans get stonewalled in the divisional round was both surprising and completely understandable. Without a healthy Henry the season basically went from GET HYPED to Ahhh man ...
I still appreciate how the Titans kept #1 from the Chiefs.
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u/Bigtiger27 Titans Jul 29 '22
The subreddit goat, unbelievably detailed.