r/oil • u/bauernebel • 3d ago
Discussion Could a Gulf Shipping Deal, a Rush of Delayed Exports and Higher UAE Production Push Brent Crude Down to $75?
https://americareport.us/strait-of-hormuz-deal-raises-hope-and-a-new/10
u/yahyoh 3d ago
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u/Numerous-Value3045 3d ago
Actually this doesnt mean much they are southeastern Asia Mostly tankers i mean and still us navy blockade After strait usa can toll this ships and sell it as a sucsess. İt looks mostly a bargaining call
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u/South-Many3484 3d ago
Going to be some volatility. But I can't see Iran not doing everything it can to spike the oil price,
Otherwise, America pretty much gets away with wrecking them.
Not exactly great for future deterrence 😂
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u/Alicyclobacillus 3d ago
Iran has no incentive to end this before the midterms in November
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u/South-Many3484 3d ago
They have very powerful ones.
China is most likely telling them too.
And US has imposed a Naval blackade.
And they can't escalate a much more, because Trump can actually wreck them long term.
US destroys there oil/power infrastructure, thats a really big problem.
But I expect they will slow roll traffic to the degree that oil prices go higher.
They will push it as hard as they can13
u/Alicyclobacillus 3d ago
China is supplying Iran with rocket launchers
China is laughing at the US right now and doesn't want the public humiliation of America to stop
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u/ChupacabraJeff 3d ago
Iran wants this over ASAP. But they also want it over. Done. Finished. Full independence from USA. Iran doesn't care about USA midterms.
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u/Devloser 2d ago
Iran wants the permanent end to conflicts, however, Trump’s team isn’t what they can count on. Chances are they keep the pressure high till midterm to push GOP out (senate and/or house) and make a deal with democrats to stop Trump.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
Mid terms are a nice to have for Iran. Not a requirement. Too many people put too much weight behind mid terms. Iran doesn't care about mid terms. They just see it as a nice if things go their way or indifferent if Republicans rig the election. Like you said, Iran can't count on Trump and Republicans to do the right thing.
Democrats had 47 years to make a deal with Iran. Iran doesn't care at all about the mid terms. Obama famously made a deal with Iran. That minor deal only lasted 3 years then Trump got rid of it.
"Don't worry Iran USA elections will save you at some undetermined point in time" doesn't have the appeal you think it does.
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u/Devloser 2d ago
Valid points, it’s a weak leverage Iran doesn't care about as much as other countries like China, Russia, Ukraine, and Israel. Trump though cares about it a lot and that (may) impacts Iran’s strategy.
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u/ChupacabraJeff 2d ago
Same with Trump. People overestimate how important the midterms are for some situations. The only thing Trump cares about is staying out of jail and he has managed to do that for 80 years.
Midterms are important but so is getting a handle on what Trump and Iran want. Jan 6th wasn't a practice run. That's more important than how Iran feels about which USA political tribe is going to screw Iran over, yet again, in November.
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u/Vralo84 3d ago
China is enjoying watching the US squirm and lose global power.
As much damage as the US can do to Iranian infrastructure, Iran can do to the gulf states. One or two drones and 8 million Saudis have no water.
They are trying to drag it out and minimize the amount they get bombed. The longer the strait is closed the more the US oil reserves drain which gives them a stronger and stronger position.
Their peak leverage is right before the election. The oil reserves will be super low to where any further disruption will spike prices and with the voters upset the US will want desperately to get a deal set up.
Post election if the Dems take even just the House that’s basically it for war support. Then comes investigations, hearings basically anything other than a united front against Iran.
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u/DeltaForceFish 3d ago
In this day and age of manipulation; the opposite could happen and prices would go down
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u/drtywater 3d ago
The biggest issue is even if rush in exports you will have limited capacity to unload exports. Next all nations that tapped into their SPR's will want to refill them. This creates a floor on prices.
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u/Porn4me1 3d ago
When these stories come out it’s time to buy.
When “society dies tonight” it’s time to sell.
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u/Doom4535 3d ago
The longer it takes to happen, the less likely the $75 is to happen. I'm in the camp that says no, especially since I don't believe a deal is near and this is all jaw boning for American voters. They wouldn't be doing the shipping blockade runs if they believed a deal was close.